贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a record high tariff revenue of $33 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 316%, contributing to total revenue of $404 billion for the month, setting a new October record [1] - Despite the increase in revenue, government spending remained significantly higher, totaling $689 billion in October, leading to a net deficit of $284 billion, the largest October deficit on record [2] - The adjusted deficit for October, accounting for timing factors, was approximately $180 billion, a decrease of 29% compared to October 2024 [2] Group 2 - The increase in tariffs is linked to previous U.S. tariff policies and heightened trade tensions, resulting in higher payments from importing companies [1] - Interest payments reached $104 billion in October, marking a new high for the month, raising concerns about the sustainability of federal debt levels [2] - Treasury officials noted that while increased tariffs boost revenue, they may also compress corporate profits, potentially leading to reduced corporate tax revenues in the long term [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. recorded a budget deficit of $284 billion in the first month of fiscal year 2026, highlighting significant challenges for the Trump administration in reducing federal borrowing in the coming years [1] - The October deficit decreased by 29% year-over-year after calendar adjustments, driven by a 22% increase in fiscal revenue due to record-high tariff income [1] - Despite a substantial rise in Medicare spending, adjusted fiscal expenditures remained roughly flat compared to the same month last year, reflecting the impact of Congress's failure to pass annual appropriations before the new fiscal year began [1] Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - The net tariff revenue for October reached $31 billion, with an average of $29 billion over the previous three months, indicating the ongoing suppression of federal borrowing demand due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [1] - The approval of a temporary spending plan by the legislative body on November 12 is expected to lead to a surge in expenditures in the November budget report [1]

And it's a fresh read on the nation's fiscal health. The aforementioned Steve Leeman with those [music] headlines and could probably also talk about the Fed. Steve.Yeah, Brian. Thanks for that introduction. The Treasury uh reporting that the deficit hits an October record of 284 billion, but with a bunch of asterises.I think that's the plural. Expenses were boosted by a calendar change moving some stuff from uh uh into October from November of about $ 105 billion. So that's also an issue, but they were redu ...

·摩根士丹利：印度财政赤字目标面临严峻挑战，收支失衡加剧 ·澳洲联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年重启加息，潜在增长放缓推升通胀风险 ·澳新银行-罗伊摩根数据显示，新西兰11月下旬通胀预期升至5.4%，创2023年12月以来新高，较10月上 升0.4个百分点。过去六个月周度预期均值维持在5.0%高位，持续高企的通胀预期将显著制约新西兰联 储进一步降息的空间，加大货币政策决策难度。 ·穆迪分析指出，亚太地区GDP增速将从2025年的4.1%放缓至2026年的3.6%，2027年进一步降至3.5%。 报告指出，今年出口激增主要受美国关税上调前的抢运效应驱动，难以持续；叠加疲弱的亚太多国国内 需求，不仅削弱抵消外部冲击的能力，也加剧通缩压力，区域增长前景面临挑战。 ·AMP经济学家指出，澳大利亚住房短缺约20万至30万套，主因移民增长长期超出住房供应能力。建议 将年度净移民从当前31.6万人削减至约20万人，以重建供需平衡，缓解日益严峻的住房负担能力危机。 ·澳联邦银行经济学家指出，若澳大利亚通胀压力持续、劳动力市场趋紧，澳洲联储可能在2026年重启 加息。尽管当前概率不高，但受生产率疲软拖累，澳大利亚潜在经济增长放缓 ...

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关税，高市早苗推出财政刺激草案 权益资产多数下跌，大宗商品多数下跌。 恒生科技下跌7.2%，纳指下跌2.7%；10Y美债收益率下行8.0bp至 4.06%；美元指数上涨0.9%至100.15，离岸人民币微贬至7.11；WTI原油大跌3.4%至58.1美元/桶，COMEX 黄金持平于4085.2美元/盎司。 特朗普下调食品关税，日本高市早苗推出财政刺激草案。 11月13日，美国宣布与阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地 马拉、萨尔瓦多达成贸易框架协议，下调食品关税。11月21日，日本政府公布21.3万亿日元综合经济刺激 草案，旨在通过民生补贴、危机管理投资、国防支出拉动GDP。 9月美国非农就业超预期，但失业率上行，美联储10月纪要显示官员观点分化。 美国9月非农新增就业人数 为11.9万人，超市场预期，但失业率上行至4.4%；美联储10月会议纪要显示，"许多"（many）参会者支持 保持利率不变，仅几位（several）参会者认为降息是合适的。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential introduction of new real estate support policies in China, focusing on interest subsidies and reduced deed taxes, as a response to the current economic conditions affecting the banking sector and real estate market [1][27]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Banking Sector - Interest subsidies are proposed as a solution instead of direct interest rate cuts due to the narrowing interest margins of major banks, which are all below the survival line of 1.5% [6][27]. - The current interest margins for major banks are: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.28%), China Construction Bank (1.36%), Bank of China (1.26%), and Agricultural Bank of China (1.3%) [6]. - The cost of interest subsidies must be sourced externally, likely from fiscal deficits, as direct funding from taxpayers or limited bond issuance imposes constraints [7][27]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the effectiveness of interest subsidies will primarily benefit first-time homebuyers by reducing their overall financial burden, thus supporting the real estate market [17][27]. - For investors, the article notes that real interest rates remain high due to negative inflation, making it less attractive for them to expand their asset portfolios [26][27]. - The real interest rate is calculated as nominal interest minus the inflation rate, with current conditions indicating a real interest rate of approximately 4%, the highest in two decades [26][27]. Group 3: Monitoring and Data Tracking - To assess the impact of potential interest subsidies, monitoring fiscal deficit sizes and the central bank's balance sheet is crucial, as these will indicate the actual scale of monetary easing [15][27]. - The article suggests that tracking these data points will provide insights into the future direction of the real estate market [15][27].

Group 1: Economic Policies and Stimulus - The U.S. announced a trade framework agreement with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador to lower food tariffs, aiming to alleviate rising food prices due to tariffs and supply shocks [45][47] - Japan's government introduced a comprehensive economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen, focusing on short-term subsidies, crisis management investments, and defense spending to boost GDP [64] Group 2: Market Performance - Major equity markets experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 7.2% and the Nasdaq down 2.7% [3][12] - The S&P 500 sectors showed mixed results, with communication services, healthcare, and consumer staples rising by 3.0%, 1.8%, and 0.8% respectively, while information technology and consumer discretionary fell by 4.7% and 3.3% [8] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [73]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The long - term fiscal risk of US Treasury bonds is increasing, with factors like supply surge, debt structure deterioration, and high fiscal deficit pushing long - term interest rates up. However, recent market sentiment is driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, causing the 10Y Treasury yield to fall to about 4.06% [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Bond Interest Rate Review - As of November 21, the 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 5bp in two weeks to 4.06%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 6bp, and the 30 - year yield increased by 2bp [7] 2. US Treasury Bond Market Changes - In late October, the duration of Treasury issuance slightly increased, with 3 - year issuance at $57.4 billion, 10 - year at $41.86 billion, and 30 - year at $24.95 billion. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [7] 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.5 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, dropping to 165,700 contracts [7] 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - There are serious differences in the Fed's meeting minutes. Some officials support rate cuts, while others are cautious [8] 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 19, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance decreased by $41.87 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool decreased by $45.223 billion, indicating a marginal easing of liquidity [8] 4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 15, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.29 (2.27 two weeks ago), showing a short - term deterioration after stability [8] 5. Structural Deterioration of the US Treasury Bond Market - The total US Treasury debt has exceeded $38 trillion in 2025, with the debt - to - GDP ratio over 126%. The interest payment exceeds military spending, and the Treasury's short - term debt financing has formed a short - term debt backlog, making long - term interest rates likely to rise [11] 6. Overseas Investor Holdings - In September, Japan continued to increase its Treasury holdings, but the UK and China reduced theirs, causing the overall overseas holding ratio to reach a low. The weakening global motivation to increase holdings is due to factors such as rising exchange - rate hedging costs and concerns about the US fiscal situation [11] 7. Recent Market Sentiment - Driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, the 10Y Treasury yield has fallen. Institutional investors are re - allocating bonds, and the Bloomberg Treasury index's annual return is expected to reach a new high since 2020 [12]

Core Insights - Russia is facing a series of interconnected challenges amid evolving global dynamics and escalating geopolitical tensions, with its military capabilities showing resilience but economic structural crises nearing a breaking point [1][11] - The Central Bank of Russia has officially initiated the sale of its gold reserves to address a significant budget deficit, a move that even President Putin can only tacitly approve [1][3] Economic Context - Gold reserves are viewed as a financial safety net, with major economies like the US, Germany, Italy, and France holding the majority, and typically only selling in extreme circumstances [3] - Russia's decision to sell gold reflects a state of financial emergency, as it has been forced to implement various urgent measures, including significant tax increases, to cope with fiscal deficits since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict [5][11] Tax and Inflation Dynamics - The tax hikes have temporarily increased fiscal revenue but have led to systemic price increases, disrupted market equilibrium, and significantly raised living costs for citizens [5] - The ruble's continuous depreciation exacerbates economic instability, creating a vicious cycle of tax increases, inflation, and currency devaluation [5] External Pressures - Severe economic and financial sanctions from Western countries have cut off Russia's normal trade channels, putting many Russian enterprises at risk of export disruptions and funding crises [6] - The recent imposition of a 50% tariff on Russian oil products by the US has intensified the economic strain, particularly as India, a key buyer of Russian oil, begins to negotiate reductions in imports [6] Gold Reserve Implications - Russia ranks fifth globally in gold reserves with 2,326 tons, and if it sells more than 25 tons, China could surpass it, reshaping the global gold reserve landscape [8] - The sale of gold is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices, as Russia transitions from a significant buyer to a seller, potentially increasing market supply [8] Future Considerations - The impact of Russia's gold sales on the market will depend on various factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, global geopolitical developments, and asset allocation strategies of multinational financial institutions [8] - The root causes of Russia's economic difficulties stem from both the direct costs of war and the accumulation of long-term structural issues, necessitating a balance between military operations and economic stability [11]