波兰总理：大西洋两岸都将遭受重大损失，但一项苛刻的贸易协定总比盟国之间毫无意义的关税战要 好。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待贸易协定最终日，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.99 个基点报4.388%；美元指数涨1.02%报98.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值报7.1835； COMEX黄金期货跌0.65%报3314.00美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中美经贸会谈、欧央行CPI预期、美国6月职位空缺、6月房价指 数。美欧贸易协定达成，但协定内容不及预期乐观，国内商品情绪大幅降温，金价 震荡。沪金溢价扩大至1.4元/克。关注本周贸易协定进展，降息预期依旧高涨，金 价震荡。 2、基差：黄金期货774.78，现货771.58，基差- ...

张尧浠：黄金再度回踩看涨支撑、基本面暗示仍待调整 上交易日周一(7月28日)：国际黄金低开走弱，倒垂收跌，贸易谈判和风险情绪回升，推动美元指数强势反弹收阳，打压金价，虽然特朗普言论的本周必 须降息，限制了金价跌幅，但周初的中美贸易谈判和本周的美联储利率决议及非农等仍在令市场观望，而减弱了多头动力，使其维持近日的回落趋势； 不过形态上，有一定的止跌信号，再加上ZZ指标已经显示触底，上升趋势线支撑也再度显现回踩看涨预期，因而，也暗示下方空间有限，昨日低点附近 或100日均线支撑位置，则是可看涨反弹的机会，有望维持震荡三角趋势再度上探3400美元上方。 另外，本周还将迎来美联储利率决议和非农等数据，决议上，市场预期利率保持不变，但特朗普认为美联储本周必须降息，如意外降息，金价将直接强势 反弹，如保持不变，则需关注鲍威尔和点阵图对于后市的利率政策的观点，如偏鸽将利好金价，如偏鹰将继续打压金价。 但如跌破100日均线支撑，则警惕进一步回落至3100美元或3000美元关口的风险。 具体走势上，金价自亚市低开近17美元至3321.78美元，先行震荡走强，于欧盘尾时段录得日内高点3344.99美元，之后转震荡回落，收复日内涨 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, highlighting the reduction of tariffs and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in key industries [51][52] - The article notes that developed markets have generally seen an increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 4.1% and the S&P 500 by 1.5% [4][80] - The article mentions the fluctuations in commodity prices, with WTI crude oil decreasing by 3.2% to $65.2 per barrel, while coking coal prices surged by 36.0% to 1259 yuan per ton [37][38] Group 2 - The article reports that the US Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July, below the expected 52.7, indicating ongoing disruptions in US industrial production due to tariffs [66][81] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates during its July meeting, aligning with market expectations as inflation returned to target levels [69][81] - The article highlights the mixed performance of emerging market 10-year government bond yields, with Turkey's yield rising significantly by 177.5 basis points to 31.6% [20]

Report Title Precious Metals Weekly Report (July 21 - July 25) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic commodities surged, and precious metal prices rose first and then fell. Silver remained stronger than gold. The prices of precious metals were supported by the domestic commodity boom despite trade agreement news from Japan and the EU. The expectation of a Fed rate cut continued to rise, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices had strong capital support [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2510 closed up 0.26%, reaching a maximum of 794 yuan/gram; COMEX Gold closed down 0.2%, reaching a maximum of 3451.7 dollars/ounce. - Shanghai Silver 2510 closed up 2.4%, reaching a new historical high of 9526 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Silver closed up 0.06%, reaching a maximum of 39.91 dollars/ounce, the highest since September 2011. - SGE Gold T + D closed up 0.29%, and SGE Silver T + D closed up 2.21%. - London Gold Spot closed down 0.4%, and London Silver Spot closed down 0.03%. - The US Dollar Index closed down 0.8%, and the US Dollar against Offshore RMB closed down 0.18% [4][12]. - **Trade Agreement News**: - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU would increase investment in the US by 600 billion dollars, buy US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products [12][13]. - **Economic Data**: - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. - The Eurozone July PMI rose to 51, a new high in nearly a year. Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, while France's economy continued to shrink due to political deadlock. - US June existing - home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, while housing prices reached a new historical high [14][15]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Focus**: This week, the China - US trade negotiation and the August 1 tariff "deadline" were the focuses, and the Fed's interest rate decision was highly anticipated. The US would also release key data such as non - farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE. The Bank of Japan would announce the target interest rate. China would hold a Politburo meeting at the end of July and release the official manufacturing PMI data [12]. - **Position Analysis**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased slightly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced, and the fluctuation was very limited. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to increase, with both long and short positions increasing significantly. - CFTC net positions fluctuated slightly, with both long and short positions of gold and silver increasing, but the increase in short positions was limited [12]. 3. Fundamental Data - **ETF Positions**: SPDR Gold ETF positions continued to increase, and silver ETF positions increased in a fluctuating manner [31][33]. - **Inventory Data**: - COMEX Gold inventory increased slightly, and COMEX Silver inventory decreased slightly. - Shanghai Gold inventory data was presented, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased in a fluctuating manner [36][38]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 216,889, an increase of 5.34% from last week; short positions were 66,199, an increase of 5.86%; the net position was 150,690, an increase of 5.12% [23]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 448,932, a decrease of 8.03% from last week; short positions were 348,227, a decrease of 7.89%; the net position was 100,705, a decrease of 8.53% [26]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 22, the net long position of CFTC gold increased significantly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced; the net long position of CFTC silver increased slightly, also with more long positions added and short positions reduced [27]. 5. Summary - Tariff agreements had no progress, the expectation of a rate cut increased significantly, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices were still relatively strong [12].

摩根士丹利：欧美贸易协议对航空航天业有利 金十数据7月28日讯，摩根士丹利分析师在给客户的报告中写道，美国和欧盟之间的贸易协定对航空航 天业有利，因为飞机和零部件免征关税。根据该协议，美国将对绝大多数欧盟出口产品设定15%的基准 关税，但华盛顿和布鲁塞尔同意对包括所有飞机和零部件在内的一些战略产品征收零对零关税。分析师 们表示："虽然市场对航空航天业恢复零关税环境抱有高度预期，但最终正式实施仍具有积极意义。"空 客对该交易表示欢迎，称稳定和可预测的环境对高度一体化的全球航空航天业至关重要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to lower interest rates prematurely in September, as there are no compelling factors to warrant such a move [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The commitment to a predetermined policy path is deemed a foolish mistake [1] - The ongoing risks of rising inflation necessitate a high level of vigilance [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Trade agreements are viewed as positive news that can help reduce uncertainty [1] - A significant shock to the labor market could compel the ECB to take action [1]

不确定性结束，将为欧股带来舒缓式反弹，汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将成为最大受益者。但随着细节和行业关 税谈判持续，欧股未来几周料将波动。 据央视新闻，当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟 将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源产品。欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟与美国双方同意实行统一的15%关税税率，包括汽车在内的各类商品将适用该 关税标准。冯德莱恩称，这些与美国的贸易协议将为市场带来稳定性。 消息宣布后，28日亚太交易时段，欧股和德国股票期货均上涨，欧元兑美元小幅走高。分析师认为，不确定性结 束，将为欧股带来舒缓式反弹，汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将成为最大受益者。但分析师们也警示，反弹可能仅 是短暂的，且随着细节和行业关税谈判持续，欧股未来几周料将波动。 汽车、能源、奢侈品等行业将受益 瑞士私人银行CitéGestion的投资策略主管帕拉萨德（John Plassard）称，"贸易协定足以释放股市最需要的东西： 可见性。此前的关税升级风险，接下来已经不在考虑范围内，一个重大的宏观疑虑消失了。对投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on July 28, 2025. Stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while futures such as coking coal, glass, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, alumina, industrial silicon, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, silver, nickel, rebar, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 28, 2025, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4147 and 4168 points and support levels at 4100 and 4080 points; IH2509 has resistance levels at 2817 and 2828 points and support levels at 2786 and 2771 points; IC2509 has resistance levels at 6260 and 6300 points and support levels at 6190 and 6150 points; IM2509 has resistance levels at 6663 and 6700 points and support levels at 6561 and 6521 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on July 28, 2025. T2509 has resistance levels at 108.32 and 108.46 yuan and support levels at 108.01 and 107.91 yuan; TL2509 has resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.6 yuan and support levels at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025, with support levels at 768.6 and 766.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 776.8 and 778.7 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2510 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels at 9055 and 9008 yuan/kg, with resistance levels at 9392 and 9447 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 will test support levels at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 79300 and 79700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, natural rubber, and 20 - grade rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 28, 2025. For instance, the coking coal futures main contract JM2509 will test support levels at 1115 and the limit - down price of 1100.5 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1290 and 1294 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: The Chinese government has taken a series of measures, including promoting free pre - school education, initiating the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, and the release of the "Artificial Intelligence Global Governance Action Plan". From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9][10]. - **International News**: The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but the European Parliament's International Trade Committee is dissatisfied with the agreement. The US June durable goods orders preliminary value decreased by 9.3% month - on - month [14][15]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures on the DCE. The DCE and GQEX have introduced trading limit measures for coking coal and lithium carbonate futures, which are expected to cool down the over - heated market [15][16]. - The GQEX is promoting the research and development of photovoltaic module futures, platinum, palladium futures, and lithium hydroxide futures, which are expected to be launched this year [16]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures generally declined slightly. The four major indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) have risen for 5 consecutive weeks. The Chinese capital market has established the China Capital Market Society, and the CSRC plans to revise the "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [22][24][25]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the main contracts of bond futures mostly declined. The central bank carried out a large - scale reverse repurchase operation and MLF operation, with a net investment of 6018 billion yuan and 1000 billion yuan respectively [50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 declined slightly, and the silver futures main contract AG2510 rebounded weakly [58][63]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On July 25, 2025, base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally declined slightly [69][73][81]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: On July 25, 2025, coking coal, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and other futures rose strongly, while crude oil futures rebounded slightly [106][107][118].

Core Points - Indonesia's diplomatic strategy between the US and China has faced significant challenges, leading to a trade agreement with the US that has sparked international trade tensions [1] - The US imposed punitive tariffs of up to 32% on Indonesian goods, which were later negotiated down to 19% after intense diplomatic discussions [3] - The trade agreement allows US goods to enter Indonesia tariff-free while Indonesian products face a 19% tariff in the US, creating an imbalanced trade environment [5] - Indonesia is required to import at least $19 billion worth of goods from the US annually, including $10 billion in energy products, which poses risks to its domestic market [6] - The Indonesian government plans to use US imports for re-export to mitigate losses, but this strategy carries significant risks, including potential impacts on local agriculture and market saturation [7] - The US government promotes the agreement as a means to access Southeast Asian markets, but this claim may overstate Indonesia's market capacity and is driven by strategic interests in nickel resources [9] - China's response includes maintaining anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel products, signaling a strong stance against perceived discriminatory practices [12] - The trade agreement reflects a complex geopolitical struggle, with Indonesia caught between the US and China, raising concerns about its economic viability and future trade relations [12]