Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, so kept as is) [4] 2. Core View - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price is oscillating downward. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. For now, the operation should be mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On July 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.02/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Different regions' lead spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] - **Futures**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,395 lots, down 1,219 lots, and the position was 51,951 lots, down 1,456 lots. At night, it closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close. The lead price has been weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - **Inventory**: On July 17, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, a change of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Absolute price**: Keep a neutral view. Due to the tight domestic ore supply, unclear peak - season demand, and the weak non - ferrous sector, the current operation should be high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [4] - **Option strategy**: Postpone [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will significantly boost demand. Lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but the upside is limited due to the annual line resistance. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,001 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,618 lots, up 304 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,860 lots, up 517 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,086 tons, down 682 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, up 10,125 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 145 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cash - 3 month spread was - 31.9 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The monthly automobile output was 264.2 thousand vehicles, down 3.8 thousand vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. Industry News - Trump's plan to fire Powell caused a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and a surge in gold. After Trump's denial, the market stabilized [2]. - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest level during his tenure [2]. - Trump hopes the oil price can drop further, and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been good [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring [2]. View Summary - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will boost demand, and lead prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the upside is limited [2]. - The supply of primary lead has increased due to rising lead prices, and the supply of recycled lead has also increased slightly, but the raw material bottleneck remains [2]. - Market trading is light, and the support for lead prices from demand is limited. The operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has declined [2]. - Overseas inventory is decreasing, while domestic inventory is increasing slightly due to the price difference between domestic and overseas markets [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate is decreasing, which will have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral; Option strategy:暂缓 [4] Core View - The downstream has a fear of price drops, leading to sluggish trading in the spot market. The domestic ore supply remains relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious yet. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Therefore, the current operation is mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][2][4] Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan/ton, closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,614 lots, down 988 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 53,407 lots, up 740 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is positive, with the Trump tariff negotiation making progress, the "Great Beauty Act" passed, and the domestic June PMI data rebounding month - on - month. The US dollar continues to be weak, which is beneficial to the lead price. The supply and demand in the fundamentals both increase. The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase month - on - month as refineries resume production. The impact of the mid - year inventory count and closing is lifted, and with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the purchasing of battery enterprises improves, and the inventory remains at a neutral level. With positive macro and micro factors and capital support, the lead price is rising and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Further improvement in consumption is expected to boost the lead price [3][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From June 27th to July 4th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,125 yuan/ton to 17,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,041.5 dollars/ton to 2,057 dollars/ton, an increase of 15.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.39 to 8.41, an increase of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 5.69 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead (PB2508) maintained a strong trend, with the upward momentum slightly slowing down. Affected by positive macro - sentiment, the continuous decline of the US dollar, and the expectation of improved consumption, it finally closed at 17,295 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. On Friday night, it opened high and closed low. The LME lead broke through the 2,050 dollars/ton mark and finally closed at 2,057 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of July 4th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. The downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, mostly through long - term orders, and the spot transactions in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai area were still limited. In terms of inventory, as of July 4th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 10,150 tons to 263,275 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,374 tons to 53,303 tons. As of July 3rd, the SMM five - region social inventory increased by about 900 tons to 5.69 million tons compared with last Thursday. The strong rise of lead futures prices expanded the basis, increasing the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse, and the inventory is expected to increase further as the current - month delivery approaches, but the increase is expected to be limited due to supply constraints and improved demand [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 4th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged. A recycled lead refinery in the western region with a public capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failure and is expected to complete maintenance in late July. If the equipment is调试 smoothly, it is expected to produce lead normally in August. In June, the electrolytic lead production was 328,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 4.3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year to 342,600 tons. The recycled refined lead production in June was 226,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. It is expected that the production in July will increase by 12.23% month - on - month and decrease by 0.24% year - on - year to 254,100 tons [8]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, recycled lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead will continue to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories will increase slightly, while overseas inventories will accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Given the weakening overseas economic situation, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,063.5 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead was 87,707 lots, up 3,906 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 60 lots, down 179 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 46,439 tons, up 50 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, down 1,925 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,260 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 245 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 26.77 dollars/ton, up 5.68 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, down 7 yuan. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The global lead ore output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,151.79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries (with 2% antimony) was 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,755.04 points, down 21.88 points. The monthly automobile output was 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 6. Industry News - In June in the US, the ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 47,999 people, the lowest since December 2024. Interest - rate futures almost fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, might resign, causing the pound and UK bonds to fall [2] 7. View Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increased their operating rates and production due to rising lead prices. The slight recovery of lead prices reduced the loss pressure of secondary lead, but the price of waste batteries remained flat. In the traditional off - season of the second quarter, the demand for battery replacement decreased, and it was difficult to increase the production of secondary lead. On the demand side, the market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while warehouse receipts increased. The processing fee of lead concentrate started to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of secondary and primary lead [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 现货市场地域性成交有所好转 铅价突破万七关口 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-25，LME铅现货升水为-24.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化200 元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化225元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10500 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-25，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17165元/吨，较前一交易日变化210元/吨，全天交易 日成交36222手，较前一交易日变化1819手，全天交易日持仓15153手，手较前一交易日变化-4407手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17200元/ ...