矿端干扰使得铜价愈发易涨难跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货情况： 据SMM讯，2025-09-27当周，SMM1#电解铜平均价格运行于80010元/吨至82505元/吨，周中呈现走高的态势。SMM 升贴水报价运行于-5元/吨至60元/吨。库存方面，2025-09-27当周，LME库存变动-0.10万吨至14.44万吨，上期所库 存变化-0.70万吨至9.88万吨。国内社会库存（不含保税区）变化-0.44万吨至14.01万吨，保税区库存变动-0.14万吨 至7.54万吨。Comex库存上涨0.40吨至32.23万吨。 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 形成对于铜绝对价格的持续性利好，另外国内针对铜冶炼企业的反内卷措施也仍需关注后续具体实施情况，而对 于铜价而言，在临近国庆假期之际，若存在投机头寸仓位过重的情况则建议适当减仓，套保投资则可在80,500元/ 观点： 宏观方面，2025-09-27当周，美联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率 水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整 体看美联储未来的降息路径 ...

9月26日再生57-3黄铜棒(贵溪)价格指数为54485元/吨，上涨107元/吨，涨幅0.2%。 （9月26日）全国铜价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海华 | 82485元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | CATH-2 ; | 通 | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 广东南 | 82580元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | CATH-2 ; | 储 | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海有 | 82510元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | CATH-2 ; | 色 | 吨 | | | | 【市场资讯】 自由港麦克莫兰公司周三宣布格拉斯伯格矿场遭遇不可抗力，预计第三季度铜、金综合销量将下滑。声 明称，这座全球最大金银铜矿之一或将于202 ...

Commodities Research 25 September 2025 | 10:00AM SGT Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Base Metals Comment: Copper: Grasberg Outage Knocks 1% Off 2026 Global Mine Supply Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha ...

中信证券认为，近三年国内铜矿板块PE长期运行在10—15x，今年以来板块持续提升估值，与供给增速 下滑、国内需求强劲有密切关系。展望后市，国内铜矿板块在盈利和估值两方面将迎来持续共振：1） 年内供需进一步改善为盾，旺季效应和宏观暖风为矛，2025年三季度至四季度铜价有望冲击10500美元/ 吨，预计铜价中枢上移将促进企业盈利预期改善；2）对供给短缺与需求成长的感知差异导致海内外板 块估值悬殊，预计未来供需认知改善以及铜价上台阶将驱动国内估值继续提升至15—20x。 华鑫证券认为，铜矿再现扰动，需求旺季还未启动。此前，9月8日因事故停产的印尼Grasberg矿山本周 仍处于暂停状态，铜矿供应紧张的担忧仍然持续。需求方面，虽然电线电缆开工率环比再度走弱，但是 精炼铜制杆开工率环比升约3个百分点，需求相对平稳。目前铜需求旺季未启动，但是供应扰动再起， 预计铜价将走强。 印尼格拉斯伯格矿区运营方、美国矿业巨头自由港-麦克莫兰铜金公司正式宣布，因山体滑坡导致矿 难，该矿区遭遇"不可抗力"，预计今年第三季度铜销售额将因此下滑，全面复工时间推迟至2026年上半 年。受一系列消息影响，自由港-麦克莫兰铜金公司股价24日收盘大 ...

全球第二大铜矿Grasberg遭遇矿难停产。Freeport预计最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平， 2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。 后市来看，沪铜期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 9月25日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘红。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报81000.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪铜主力最高触及82980.00元，下方探低80750.00元，涨幅达3.36%。 南华期货（603093）指出，自由港铜矿的影响大幅超预期，上周的周报中我们提到Grasberg铜矿还需1-2 周时间过于乐观，此次事件的影响事件较长。对于铜价而言，短期存在超涨，不建议追高。 据外媒报道，高盛周四下调了2025年和2026年全球铜矿供应预测，因印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿发生不可抗 力。该行估计，此次事故将导致总计52.5万吨的铜矿供应损失，因此将2025年下半年全球铜矿供应预测 下调16万吨，并将2026年预测下调20万吨。 一德期货表示，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg遭遇矿难停产，预计2026年铜金产量或骤降35%，引发市场对 铜中长期的担忧加剧，铜价大幅上行，突破至此前预期的区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant divergence in interest rate expectations, with a likelihood of one rate cut this year, and potentially two more cuts based on weak employment and stable inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve indicates a notable split in expectations, excluding the new member, suggesting a potential rate cut within the year [1] - Weak employment data and lack of significant inflation rebound provide a foundation for further rate cuts, with a higher probability of two cuts remaining this year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Following a short-term bullish sentiment, copper prices have experienced a pullback, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - The expectation of liquidity easing is likely to support copper prices, presenting a buying opportunity during the pullback [1] - Improved downstream demand is providing support for copper prices, with medium to long-term resilience and rate cut pace driving upward movement [1] - In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main viewpoint indicates that copper prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term, with the Shanghai copper futures returning to the 80,000 yuan mark and London copper nearing 9,996 USD [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Recent phone calls between Chinese and U.S. leaders have provided strategic guidance for the stable development of Sino-U.S. relations, improving market sentiment and contributing to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Global copper inventory has continued to increase by approximately 12,000 tons, reaching 617,000 tons. Specifically, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase of about 11,700 tons to 105,800 tons, while bonded copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 76,400 tons. The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decrease of about 5,000 tons to 147,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 287,300 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been realized, and trade risks between China and the U.S. have eased, leading to a reduction in overseas macroeconomic disturbances. The market is now focusing on domestic policies and guidance for the peak season in end-user demand [1] Group 4: Price Forecast - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels, with the reference trading range for Shanghai copper futures set between 79,400 and 80,900 yuan per ton. The strategy suggests focusing on this range for day trading while considering opportunities for buying on dips in the medium term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected but made a hawkish statement. The short - term sentiment is under pressure, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment is not expected to be significantly suppressed. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the peak - season demand is mediocre currently, as the long holiday approaches, the downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. The short - term price may rise in a volatile manner. This week, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 9,850 - 10,150 US dollars/ton[12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly, the processing fee for blister copper remained flat, and the supply of scrap copper remained tight. Ivanhoe Mines started the second phase of the dewatering plan for the Kakula copper mine and postponed the release of its copper production guidance for the next two years[11]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 11,000 tons week - on - week. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased slightly. The spot premium in Shanghai on Friday was 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton[11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In August 2025, China's refined copper imports were 307,000 tons, with a net import of 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 2.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.071 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%[11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was relatively mediocre. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly[11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices rose and then fell. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.42% for the week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.68% to 9,996 US dollars/ton[20]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan on September 19, 2025[23]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Domestic copper prices rose and then fell, and spot transactions were relatively average. On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) fluctuated upwards[26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profits**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates rebounded slightly to - 40.8 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China declined, but still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue[34]. - **Import - Export Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The import - export ratio data was presented in relevant charts. The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed[39]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 77,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased. The number of copper warrants increased by 6,278 to 31,838 tons. The LME inventory decrease came from Asian and European warehouses, while the inventory in North American warehouses increased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined[42][45][48]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in August 2025 declined slightly month - on - month, and the decline in September is expected to widen to 40,000 - 50,000 tons. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in August 2025 was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%[53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 3.536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The imports of anode copper in August were 62,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.1%. The exports of refined copper in August were 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper processing trade exports rebounded. The imports of recycled copper in August were 179,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease[56][59][62][68][71]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The consumption structures of global and Chinese electrolytic copper were presented in relevant charts[75]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both rebounded in August, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI rising above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and India all rising[78]. - **Output Data of Downstream Industries**: In August, the year - on - year output of some copper downstream industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of color TVs, washing machines, AC motors, and freezers decreased. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased[81]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all showing year - on - year declines, and the declines all widened. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in August[84]. - **Operating Rates of Downstream Enterprises**: The operating rates of downstream copper enterprises showed different trends. For example, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in August rebounded and is expected to continue to rise in September; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises declined in August and is expected to continue to decline in September[87]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reporting 1,752 yuan/ton on Friday[99]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 86,984 to 958,062 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2510 contract were 233,104 lots (bilateral)[104]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of September 16, CFTC fund positions remained net long, with the net long ratio rising to 12.6%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of September 12)[107].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise and subsequent fall in copper prices align with expectations, indicating potential high-level fluctuations in the coming months [1] - The increase in copper prices was driven by a decline in the US dollar index, but the fundamental factors do not support further price increases [1] - Positive factors for copper prices include agreements on tariff policies between the US and other countries, increased expectations for interest rate cuts leading to a weaker dollar, and upward support levels [1] Group 2 - Negative factors affecting copper prices include the potential for fluctuating tariff policies, reduced global demand due to these policies, and adjustments to US copper tariff policies leading to extremely high COMEX inventories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of copper prices during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting that copper price movements are influenced by market expectations formed after rate cuts and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics of copper itself [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycle Overview - Since 1989, including the upcoming cycle starting in 2024, the Federal Reserve has initiated a total of seven rate cut cycles, each with distinct macroeconomic backgrounds and impacts [4][5]. - The rate cut cycles can be categorized into three types: preventive cuts, recessionary cuts, and emergency cuts, each differing in their triggers, paths, and outcomes [5][6]. Group 2: Copper Price Performance Analysis - The analysis of copper price performance before and after the first rate cut reveals that copper prices tend to be strong in the 4-8 months leading up to the cut, but weaken in the last 4 months before the cut [7]. - During the rate cut cycle, copper prices do not show a clear trend, fluctuating due to changing market expectations regarding economic recovery [9][12]. - After the last rate cut, copper prices exhibit more significant trends, often rising sharply as market expectations shift following the completion of the rate cuts [12][15]. Group 3: Conclusions and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's rate cut actions do not directly dictate copper price movements; instead, prices are primarily driven by market expectations and the fundamental supply-demand balance [15][17]. - The most favorable macroeconomic scenario for copper prices is characterized by a "weak but not declining" U.S. economy combined with improving rate cut expectations, which could lead to further price increases if inflation and employment data support the Fed's rate cut outlook [17].