Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

对于未来铜价走势，广发期货分析称，随着供应的逐步紧缺得到共识，下游对铜价的心理价位上限逐步上移。 自由港公司预计Grasberg Block Cave地下矿将于2026年Q2陆续复产，短期铜矿供应紧缺格局不变，关注年末长 单TC谈判及副产品价格走势，0及以下的长单TC以及副产品价格走弱或引发市场对未来减产的担忧。中长期的 供需矛盾支撑铜价底部重心逐步上移，关注海外降息预期等宏观驱动。 周三，因为市场普遍预期美联储将在下个月降息，伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜显著走高，连续四个交易日上 涨，触及近一个月来的最高水平。本月迄今伦铜上涨0.77%，今年迄今上涨24.88%。 据外媒报道，智利国家铜业公司提出以每吨335美元的溢价，向部分买家供应2026年年度合同所需铜材，该溢 价是伦敦金属交易所价格之上计算的。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万吨盈 余。 荷兰国际集团(ING)大宗商品分析师表示，铜价上涨风险正在增长，在供应挑战、库存低迷和持续的贸易扭曲 的影响下，2026年供需平衡将趋紧。 | 今开:10965.00 | 昨结: 10975.00 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日铜高开高走，震荡偏强，数据显示，美国 9 月 PPI 同比增长 2.7%，预估增长 2.7%，前值为增长 2.6%；美国 9 月 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，预估增长 0.3%，前值为下降 0.1%。美国 9 月核心 PPI 同比增长 2.6%，预期增长 2.7%，前值增长 2.8%。美国 9 月零 售销售环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.60%。铜精矿库存连续一周累库，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼 费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，上期所 铜库存也连续累库，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地，再生铜杆企 业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预计再生铜杆 开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜 材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅反弹，受 成本高价的制约，铜材生 ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices continue to rise, opening at $10,846 per ton and currently at $10,860.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.39% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,873 per ton, while the lowest was $10,846 per ton [1] - On November 25, LME copper futures opened at $10,788.0, peaked at $10,949.0, and closed at $10,832.5, reflecting a 0.47% increase [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.98, with an import loss of -1,026.92 yuan per ton, compared to -857.94 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 25, LME registered copper warrants totaled 150,950 tons, with 5,625 tons canceled and an increase of 100 tons, while total copper inventory rose by 825 tons to 156,575 tons [2] - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, is significantly increasing its annual premium for refined copper to Chinese customers due to concerns over potential shortages [2]

交易所数据显示，截至11月21日，COMEX铜库存达到402,876短吨，超过了2003年1月创下的399,458短吨的前 纪录，并且今年库存量已增长了三倍。这一库存规模已超过LME和上海期货交易所库存总和，反映全球铜供应 链正因政策预期与套利行为发生显著重构。 但，昨晚旧金山联储主席Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，结合此前纽约联储主席也表态支持降息，这 使得市场对12月降息概率陡升，短暂缓解了市场对流动性问题的担忧。 后市来看，一德期货分析称，铜精矿供应仍偏紧，增速落后于精铜产量/消费增速。美联储官员表态支持12月 降息，CME数据显示美联储12月降息概率升至81%。市场受到提振，铜价小幅企稳。短期铜价延续高位震荡格 局，区间应对。关注海内外库存变化。分析师则认为，铜价在从历史高位回落后，目前徘徊在较高水平。由于 缺乏新的宏观或基本面催化剂，无论是向上还是向下突破都缺乏动力。 周一，由于美国COMEX铜库存创历史新高，市场总体观望气氛浓厚，芝加哥商品交易所(COMEX)期铜下跌。 今日，在美联储"放鸽"助推下，COMEX期铜有所反弹，小幅上涨0.19%。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 供给：9月全球铜精矿产量环比-0.3% （1）铜矿：2025年7月中国铜精矿产量为13.8 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比-1.6%；9月全球铜精矿产量为191.4 万吨，环比-0.3%。（2）废铜：截至2025年11月21日，精废价差为2675 元/吨，环比11月14日-813 元/吨。 冶炼：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口量同比+542% 1）产量：2025年10月SMM中国电解铜产量109.16万吨，环比-2.6%，同比+9.6%。（2）TC：截至2025年 11月21日，TC现货价为-41.82 美元/吨，环比11月14日+0.0 美元/吨，处2007年9月以来低位。（3）进出 口：10月电解铜进口量同比-21.5%，出口 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-24 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价高位震荡为主 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约周初延续前一周五的冲高回落趋势，后续 维持震荡走势，周五收于 85660 元/吨，较前一周-1.4%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 供需方面，进口铜精矿加工费无太多变化，11 月 18 日，自由港发布公 告，宣布全球印尼 Grasberg 地下矿将自 2026 年第二季度起逐步大规模重启 并提产，2026 年 Grasberg 矿区的预估产量调整为与 2025 年持平，约为 10 亿磅（约 45.4 万吨）铜，这一数字较 9 月修订后的事故前预估水平下降约 35%，所以中期来看对供应端还是有一定影响。上周 SMM 铜线缆开工率环 比升 1.32 个百分点，铜价回调至 86000 元/吨下，订单回升但个别企业观望， 汽车线束需求向好，11 月最后一周，企业将提产冲刺，SMM 预期开工率小 幅回升。漆包线行业机台开机率环比回升 0.73 个百分点至 77.93%。周中铜 价重心小幅回落，有效刺激下游下单需求，行业整体活跃度呈现回暖态势， 但仍未达到旺季常规水平。三大交易所库存环比增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The valuation of copper is slightly bearish with a neutral bias. The global manufacturing PMI has a neutral driving force, the short - term decline in copper concentrate processing fees is bullish, and the rise in the US dollar index is bearish. Geopolitical factors suppress risk appetite, while copper raw material supply remains tight. Although domestic smelting maintenance is decreasing marginally, downstream operating rates remain strong, and the short - term pressure on inventory accumulation in China is not significant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The trading range for the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 84,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is expected to be between 10,550 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates declined, and those for blister copper remained flat. Codelco's 2026 CIF South Korea electrolytic copper long - term contract offer increased by 245 US dollars/ton compared to 2025 [11]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, with SHFE inventory rising to 111,000 tons, LME inventory to 155,000 tons, and COMEX inventory to 362,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 90 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M premium was 1.1 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded. In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 3.225 million tons, and net imports were 2.676 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises increased, and spot transactions remained warm. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined further [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated downward. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.43% for the week, and LME copper fell 0.63% to 10,778 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed different degrees of change, and the price spreads also varied [24]. - Premiums and Discounts: The spot premium of copper in East China was 90 yuan/ton over futures. The LME Cash/3M premium first declined and then rose, reaching 1.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports continued to narrow, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [27]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.3 US dollars/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, positively boosting copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific information on the change trend is provided. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss on copper spot imports narrowed [40]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, and the decrease came from Guangdong and Jiangsu. The number of copper warehouse receipts decreased by 40 to 49,790 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and European inventory decreased slightly. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [43][46][49]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM, China's refined copper output in October 2025 decreased by about 30,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. According to NBS data, domestic refined copper output in October was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [54]. - Import and Export Situation: In October 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.451 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative imports were 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Unwrought copper and copper products imports were 438,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 55,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons but a year - on - year decline of 8.6%. Refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. Refined copper exports were 66,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper feed - processing exports narrowed. Recycled copper imports were 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [57][60][63][69][72]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in October both weakened. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvements in the Eurozone, India, and the UK, and weakening in the US and Japan [79]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In October, the year - on - year output of automobiles, color TVs, and power generation equipment increased, while that of refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, and AC motors decreased. From January to October, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [82]. - Real Estate Data: Domestic real estate data in October continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year. The decline in construction remained the same, while the decline in new construction, sales, and completion widened. The National Housing Climate Index continued to decline [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In October, the operating rates of refined copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, and copper strip enterprises declined, while the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased. It is expected that the operating rates of these enterprises will rebound or increase slightly in November [88][91][94][97]. - Refined - Scrap Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reaching 2,675 yuan/ton on Friday [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 71,216 to 1,034,950 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the nearby 2512 contract were 249,184 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of October 7, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 13.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds stabilized as of November 14 [108].

Group 1 - Recent copper price movements have been influenced by supply-side production cuts and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a strong rally followed by a pullback due to hawkish signals from the Fed [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains marginally loose, but its positive impact on the market is limited, with expectations for a rate cut in December now below 50% [1] - Supply uncertainties persist, with a decrease in refined copper production and imports in September, while global copper markets may face a supply gap of approximately 150,000 tons by 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The inventory structure shows regional mismatches, with high Comex copper inventories and slight accumulations in SHFE, while LME inventories are declining [2] - The TC (treatment charge) remains at historically low levels, indicating ongoing tightness in copper ore supply, with upcoming negotiations expected to influence TC levels for 2026 [2] - As the fourth quarter progresses, copper prices are likely to be driven by supply and demand dynamics, with macroeconomic stimuli failing to create a sustained trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.17% at closing, influenced by a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing supply constraints from mining operations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently facing pressure due to reduced expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, which has dampened market risk appetite [1] - Despite the pressure on copper prices, there is a slight recovery in domestic consumption as prices have retreated, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream enterprises and a minor reduction in domestic inventory levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Production - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume large-scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of next year, with expectations that copper and gold production will remain stable at approximately 1 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold by 2026 [1] - The copper mining sector is experiencing increased disruptions this year, with domestic copper concentrate processing fees remaining low, indicating significant negotiation pressures for domestic smelters and overseas miners as the year ends [1]