Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [1] Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism has a stable flow in its main tourism business, benefiting from the scarcity of scenic resources and strong anti-cyclical characteristics [7] - The company has a clear project reserve and a quantifiable long-term growth momentum [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, with net profit growth of 23%, 21%, and 17% respectively [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiuhua Tourism is based on the core scenic area of Jiuhua Mountain, a national 5A-level Buddhist site, forming a comprehensive tourism service system including cable cars, hotels, passenger transport, and travel agencies [9][12] - The company has a stable and diverse revenue structure, with significant visitor loyalty due to the cultural heritage of Jiuhua Mountain [17] Financial Performance - The core profit source, the cable car business, is expected to maintain a gross margin above 85% from 2023 to 2024, contributing approximately 38.33% of the company's revenue in 2024 [9] - The hotel business, while currently weaker with a gross margin of 16% in 2023, is expected to improve due to location advantages and operational efficiency [9] - Revenue has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with a 118% year-on-year increase in 2023 and a 25% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [25] Growth Drivers - The opening of the Chihuang High-speed Railway in April 2024 is expected to significantly enhance accessibility to Jiuhua Mountain, boosting overall attractiveness [9] - The Lion Peak cable car project is anticipated to start operations in 2026, potentially contributing an average annual revenue of 1.11 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan over the next 15 years [60][63] Investment Projections - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund key projects, including the Lion Peak cable car and hotel renovations [75] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise to 1.53 yuan in 2025 and 1.94 yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [75]

Core Viewpoint - The development of service consumption in China faces several constraints, including unstable income expectations, limited leisure time for residents, insufficient urbanization of the floating population, and inadequate supply. Measures are necessary to address these issues [1]. Group 1: Importance and Characteristics of Service Consumption - Service consumption is a significant component of total demand and a key focus for boosting consumption, with strong employment absorption capacity [1]. - Service consumption has distinct characteristics compared to goods consumption, including higher income elasticity, synchronous supply and demand, dependence on leisure time, and reliance on population concentration [2][3]. - The importance of service consumption is increasingly recognized in the current macroeconomic context, as it relates to stable growth, employment, and social welfare [4]. Group 2: Current Status of Service Consumption - From 2013 to 2024, per capita service consumption in China increased from 5,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan, with its share of total consumption rising from 39.7% to 46.1%. However, it has not yet returned to pre-2020 trend levels [5]. - China's service consumption level is lagging behind its development stage, with a significant gap compared to developed countries. In 2023, service consumption accounted for 66% in the US and around 60% in Japan, France, and the UK, compared to China's lower levels [8]. - Housing services constitute the largest share of service consumption, accounting for 34.6% in 2023, with self-owned housing being the primary source of this service [14]. - The share of transportation, communication, and education services has declined since 2019, indicating limited growth in these areas [17]. - Restaurant services have seen a notable increase, reaching 15.7% of service consumption in 2023, while medical services slightly increased to 14.9% [20]. Group 3: Constraints on Service Consumption - Service consumption is more sensitive to changes in income, with higher income elasticity compared to goods consumption, leading to a slower recovery post-2020 [21]. - The social security system's support for service consumption is inadequate, with significant disparities in pension benefits between urban and rural residents [22]. - Long working hours limit leisure time, with an average of 48.6 hours per week in 2023, significantly higher than the OECD average [22]. - Urbanization of the floating population remains a challenge, affecting their service consumption due to limited access to education and other services [23]. - There are supply shortages in certain service sectors, such as elderly care, where the number of registered beds is lower than in developed countries [23]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations to Boost Service Consumption - Policies should shift towards stimulating service consumption, including service consumption subsidies and consumption vouchers [24]. - Reforming the social security system to enhance pension benefits could reduce precautionary savings and release service consumption potential [24]. - Improving leisure time through optimized work and holiday policies can directly boost service consumption [24]. - Addressing educational access for the children of the floating population can significantly enhance service consumption [25]. - Public investment should focus on improving service supply quality, particularly in healthcare, education, and elderly care [25]. - The regulatory environment for service industries should be optimized to enhance market access and service quality [26].

本周公布的5月宏观经济数据显示出经济运行韧性足、结构持续改善，特别是当月社会消费品零售总额同比增 长6.4%，达到2024年初以来的最高水平，增速比上月加快1.3个百分点，远超市场预期。 强劲的消费增速反映出消费品以旧换新补贴和自5月中旬以来的"618"预热对消费的拉动效能显著。但与当月 社零高增速形成反差的是，近日公布的5月居民部门短期贷款却延续了4月的减少态势。其中，消费贷款余额5 月环比仅微增不到10亿元，同比减少近390亿元。 实际上，今年以来，社零增速的向上修复与同期消费贷余额就呈现出分化走势。一方面，社零的改善"国补"政 策功不可没，与"国补"政策相关的家电、通讯器材等零售额领跑其他品类；有机构测算，5月家电、汽车和通 讯器材类合计拉动社零增长超2个百分点。 另一方面，补贴政策在释放潜在消费需求的同时，消费者的消费观念也悄然生变。一些现象级的潮玩、演唱 会、体育赛事消费被人津津乐道。只不过，消费的回暖与消费贷余额的攀升不再同步发生，2024年1月金融机 构消费贷余额接近10.4万亿元高点后，就震荡下行。这也说明依靠金融杠杆提振消费更多是"锦上添花"，借贷 消费本质上是以未来收入作为担保的超前消费行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic consumption market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in retail sales of consumer goods, marking the highest monthly level since 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Consumption Growth - Government policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as "trade-in" and "consumption vouchers," have directly reduced consumer costs and released consumption potential [2]. - The stabilization of the macro economy has improved income levels, leading to increased demand for high-end and smart products, thus driving market recovery [2]. - Strong credit support has been observed, with RMB loans increasing by 10.68 trillion yuan in the first five months, which has directly enhanced consumer capacity and willingness [2]. Group 2: Specific Consumption Trends - The "trade-in" policy has significantly stimulated durable goods consumption, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment growing by 53.0% and 33.0% respectively in May [3]. - The holiday economy and promotional activities, such as the "May Day" and "618" sales, have effectively boosted consumption, with restaurant income growing by 5.9% [4]. - There is a clear trend towards high-quality and smart consumption, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry and sports entertainment products increasing by 21.8% and 28.3% respectively [5]. Group 3: Emerging Opportunities in Consumption - Service consumption is expanding, becoming a significant growth point, with cultural performances and tourism services seeing notable increases [5]. - The relaxation of inbound consumption policies has attracted more foreign tourists, with a 72.7% year-on-year increase in the number of visitors eligible for visa-free entry during the "May Day" holiday [5]. - Overall, the consumption market's prosperity is a result of multiple factors, and it is expected to continue providing solid support for economic growth and development opportunities for various consumer sectors [6].

Group 1 - The report reveals a new consumption landscape in China, highlighting significant growth in service consumption, particularly in health and wellness, education, and cultural services [1][5][11] - Cultural consumption is robust, with tourism at the top of consumer intentions, and a notable increase in movie attendance and cross-city cultural activities [1][5][11] - The consumption expectations in lower-tier cities and rural areas are surpassing those in first and second-tier cities in sectors like tourism and health services [1][5][11] Group 2 - The report indicates a diverse range of consumer preferences, with different income and education levels leading to varied spending habits, such as low-income and high-income households favoring health and wellness, while middle-income households prefer fitness [1][5][11] - Over two-thirds of respondents plan to spend between 2000-19999 yuan on tourism, with a strong inclination among young people and women to travel [1][5][11] - The health consumption market is expanding, with a shift from reactive to proactive health management, indicating a growing trend towards preventive health investments [1][5][11] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + silver economy" in community elder care, highlighting the demand for medical and health services [1][5][11] - The education sector shows a surge in interest, particularly in lower-tier markets, with women exhibiting higher spending expectations than men [1][5][11] - The durable goods market is seeing a shift, with a preference for digital products in East China and a growing interest in new energy vehicles, driven by considerations of range, safety, and charging convenience [1][5][11] Group 4 - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in home-buying demand in first-tier cities, while rental demand is increasing, particularly among younger demographics [1][5][11] - Pet consumption is on the rise, particularly among non-traditional families and young people, with the Northeast leading in pet care spending [1][5][11] - The report calls for maintaining consumer confidence and restructuring growth in foreign trade provinces to expand new consumption spaces [1][5][11]

□大河财立方 记者 徐兵 入夏以来，从龙虾节到露营节，从啤酒节到美食节，各地消费活动热度持续攀升，不只是夏夜烟火气的 回归，更是中国消费市场持续恢复、升级提速的鲜明写照。在此背景下，河南、福建、广东等地相继出 台提振消费专项行动方案，围绕稳就业、促增收、扩内需，释放出强烈的政策信号：消费不仅是经济增 长的重要引擎，更是畅通国内大循环的关键环节。 当前消费结构正在发生深刻变化，从吃穿用到托育养老、从商品购买到服务体验，消费升级趋势日益明 显。广东发放托育券、福建鼓励发放结婚消费券，河南打造"跟着赛事去旅行""跟着微短剧去旅游"的文 旅新场景，这些举措都集中指向服务消费的培育与壮大。服务消费的快速扩容，不仅关乎经济数字的增 长，更映射出城镇化进程中居民日常生活方式的深层变迁。 面对新的消费趋势，政策工具也在持续创新与升级。从直接补贴到结构性减税，从消费券发放到社保补 贴，从贷款贴息到带薪休假，各地政府正在通过多重路径激活消费动力。广东对符合条件的消费贷款给 予财政贴息，上海、贵州推动文旅、养老等项目通过基础设施REITs获得融资支持，海南鼓励探索春秋 假弹性休假机制……这些举措共同构建起更加系统、更有协同性的促消 ...

Consumption - In May, the retail sales growth rate reached 6.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%[8] - The increase in retail sales was driven by e-commerce promotions and an additional 2 days of holidays compared to last year, leading to concentrated demand release[2] - Significant improvements were noted in household appliances (+14.2 percentage points to 53.0%) and communication equipment (+13.1 percentage points to 33.0%) sales[9] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%, below the expected 4%, with a monthly decline of 0.7 percentage points to 2.8%[8] - The decline in investment was primarily due to the end of the equipment renewal cycle and a drop in traditional infrastructure and real estate investments[3] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, slightly worse than the expected decline of 10.5%[8] Production - Industrial value-added growth in May was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from April[25] - Manufacturing production saw a significant decline, down 0.4 percentage points to 6.2%, influenced by fewer working days in May compared to last year[25] - The decline in production was exacerbated by weak real estate and export sectors, particularly affecting transportation equipment and electrical machinery[25]

Group 1: Service Consumption Development - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to develop service consumption to enhance its role in economic growth [1] - The focus of China's economic policy is on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, with service consumption being a key area for upgrading [1][2] - The State Council's opinion on promoting high-quality service consumption includes various sectors such as dining, accommodation, and cultural entertainment [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Service Sector - Agricultural Bank provided tailored financial solutions to support the transformation of a local guesthouse into a boutique hotel, highlighting the importance of financial services in the service sector [2] - The guesthouse's renovation was funded by a 1 million yuan "rural tourism loan," which significantly improved its quality and customer experience [2] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Demand - There is a growing demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment activities as consumers shift from material wealth to seeking emotional value [3] - The cultural and related industries achieved a revenue of 141.51 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 6.0% increase from 2023 [3] Group 4: Integration of Financial Services and Cultural Industries - A recent concert in Suizhou showcased the successful integration of financial services with cultural events, enhancing customer payment experiences [4] Group 5: Health and Wellness Consumption - The health industry in China has surpassed 9 trillion yuan, driven by increasing consumer spending on health-related services [5] Group 6: Aging Population and Elderly Care Services - The aging population is driving demand for elderly care services, with policies aimed at supporting the development of the elderly care industry [6] - Financial support for the elderly care sector is expected to create more job opportunities and improve the quality of life for seniors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the mid-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving due to various macro, policy, and micro factors [1] - Goldman Sachs has identified a list of "Ten Giants" among Chinese private companies, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta, covering multiple sub-industries [1] - These "Ten Giants" represent five major investment trends: AI/technology development, self-sufficiency, globalization, service consumption, and improved shareholder returns in China [1] Group 2 - The "Ten Giants" are expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% over the next two years, with an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Seven Sisters" [2] - The average trading valuation of the "Ten Giants" is 13.9 times the expected 12-month P/E ratio, which is only a 22% premium over the MSCI China Index, significantly lower than the historical average and the 43% premium of the U.S. tech giants [2] - If Chinese private enterprises achieve a valuation premium similar to that of the U.S., their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding $313 billion in market value [2] Group 3 - AI technology is expected to drive a 2.5% annual profit growth for Chinese companies over the next decade, with private enterprises accounting for 72% of the defined AI-tech universe [3] - Private enterprises in the technology sector show significantly higher attention to AI compared to their peers, as analyzed from over 1,300 earnings call reports [3] - Companies that have a large customer base and data, and are embracing new AI technologies, are more likely to become long-term winners [3]

Group 1: Core Policy Initiatives - The central government has introduced a series of significant livelihood policies aimed at enhancing social security fairness, improving the equity of basic public services, expanding the inclusiveness of basic livelihood services, and increasing the accessibility of diverse social services [1] - The policies include the removal of household registration restrictions for participating in social insurance at the place of employment, reasonable increases in minimum wage standards, and steady progress in allowing flexible employment personnel to participate in housing provident fund systems [1][3] - The government plans to propose major strategic tasks, policy measures, and engineering projects in the livelihood sector, integrating them into the national "14th Five-Year" development blueprint [1] Group 2: Public Service Equalization - The "14th Five-Year" plan aims to significantly improve the level of basic public service equalization by 2025 and achieve full equalization by 2035 [2] - The policies focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of basic public services, coordinating service supply with population changes, and implementing local policies for providing basic public services based on residency [2][3] Group 3: Financial Support for Livelihood Development - The central government plans to increase financial investment in the livelihood sector, with education, social security, and employment expenditures budgeted at nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 6.1% and 5.9% respectively [4][5] - Employment support includes a budget of 66.74 billion yuan for employment subsidies, with measures to lower unemployment and work injury insurance rates, and to support enterprises in stabilizing jobs [4] - In the healthcare sector, per capita financial subsidies for basic public health services will increase to 99 yuan annually, and for urban and rural residents' medical insurance, it will rise to 700 yuan annually [4] Group 4: Policy Tools for Economic Stability - The government is enhancing its policy toolbox to support employment and economic stability, with measures including interest rate cuts and the implementation of the "民生10条" (Ten Livelihood Policies) to address various critical areas [6][7] - The focus is on improving the living conditions of citizens, particularly vulnerable groups, and addressing urgent livelihood issues to foster a sustainable internal consumption engine [7]