Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for five consecutive months, indicating a stable macroeconomic environment and a low necessity for further adjustments in the short term [2][4]. Summary by Sections LPR Rate Announcement - As of October 20, the 1-year LPR remains at 3%, and the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, unchanged from previous rates [2]. Economic Context - The stability in LPR is attributed to a moderately strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [4]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted that China's economic growth continues to be among the highest globally, and the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support consumption and investment [4]. Future Expectations - Several institutions anticipate that the PBOC may implement new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and households [4]. - This potential adjustment is seen as a crucial measure to stimulate domestic financing demand and counteract the slowdown in external demand [4]. A-Share Market Reaction - A table summarizing the A-share market performance following previous LPR adjustments indicates varying impacts on the Shanghai Composite Index, with some adjustments leading to positive returns over different time frames [5].

【资讯导读】 ·美国商会正式对特朗普政府提起诉讼 ·英国央行首席经济学家：未来一年将进一步降息 ·白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特表示，因"停摆"持续，特朗普政府将再冻结约110亿美元的基础设施项 目资金，主要涉及民主党执政城市。 ·美国商会正式对特朗普政府提起诉讼，指控其近期针对H-1B签证项目设定的高额申请费用"违法且不 当"。这标志着美国最具影响力的商业组织之一首次在法庭上直接挑战特朗普政府的移民与劳动力市场 政策。 ·美国商务部计划宣布将汽车制造商进口零部件关税抵免安排延长五年，此前该条款原定两年后终止。 ·英国央行首席经济学家皮尔表示，如果经济走势符合英国央行的预测，他预计未来一年将进一步降 息。鉴于通胀回落进程缓慢，不应过快降息。 ·韩国总统顾问表示，美韩在贸易谈判中多数议题上取得实质性进展；韩国与美国在亚太经合组织 （APEC）会议前达成贸易协议的可能性更高。 ·日本政府拟于2026年度将签证申请手续费上调至与欧美国家相当的水平。鉴于访日外国游客呈增加之 势，日本政府希望将签证成本上升及物价上涨体现在手续费中。 ·日本政府拟于2026年度将签证申请手续费上调 ·标普将法国长期外币发行人违约评级从"A ...

Economic Overview - Domestic economy remains stable while fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. increases[1] - Demand momentum weakens marginally due to the impact of the long holiday, but production shows resilience[3] Investment Insights - Focus on the upcoming release of Q3 GDP data by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20[3] - Consumer demand is affected, with passenger car sales declining by 1.45% year-on-year[3] External Demand - External demand shows signs of slowing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropping to 1982.2, a decrease of 6.4%[3] Production Stability - Industrial production remains stable, contributing 73.97% to GDP, while real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak[3] Price Trends - Pork prices have decreased significantly, while fruit and vegetable prices have rebounded[4] - PPI shows a decline in crude oil prices, with WTI down by 4.87%[4] Fiscal Policy - The issuance of ordinary government bonds has accelerated, with a notable increase of 79% in issuance[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds is flattening, indicating changes in market expectations[4] International Context - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown contributes to rising fiscal uncertainty, impacting global markets[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include continued fiscal instability and its effects on both domestic and international economic conditions[5]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国债期货周报 | | | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货合约周度回暖。 ◼ 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反 复震荡中有所回暖。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。同时认为本轮回暖空间有限。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反复震 荡中有所回暖，同时机构周度净多头持仓有所增长。短端合约目前处于价格稳固状态，长端合约波动较 大。通胀同比降幅持续收窄。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 市场特征方面，国债期货市场呈现长端偏强、短端承压的分化特征，收益率曲线形态趋于平坦化。短 端品种（2 年期、5 年期）成交活跃度下降，而长端品种（10 年期、30 年期）持仓量增加。政策博弈、资 金面波动及股债跷跷板效应是核心驱动因素，整体形态因此而倾向于复杂化。 图 1：市场特征跟踪 资料来源：Wind，米筐、森普、 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月19日 资金观察，货币瞭望 央行数量工具展现出呵护态度，预计10月市场利率下行 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第十期 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储降息25BP符合预期，美债短期利率下行； ➢国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：9月银行间和交易所回购利率均值大多小幅上 行；R001、GC001、R007和GC007月均值分别变动4BP、5BP、4BP和8BP；短期债券收 益率方面，1年期短债收益率月均值大 ...

经济观察网10月18日，主题为"世界变革下的未来之路"的全球财富管理论坛.2025上海苏河湾大会在上 海举行。 在论坛上，中国人民银行党委委员、副行长邹澜表示："从传统意义上看，货币政策主要是总量政策， 但在中国经济运行中很多矛盾和挑战是结构性的。结构调不好，总量调控很难发挥有效作用，因此我们 始终将发挥货币信贷政策的总量和结构双重功能作为建设现代中央银行制度、健全中国特色现代货币政 策框架的重要内容。"" 邹澜指出，结构性货币政策工具的设计在现代银行体系和现代中央银行制度框架下进行，实际上是构建 一种激励相容的机制。商业银行自主决策、自担风险，按照商业可持续原则向实体经济发放贷款，中央 银行将基础货币投放与商业银行向相关领域发放贷款的数量挂钩，以促进结构调整目标的达成。 楼继伟指出，面对全球保护主义暗流涌动，产业链的碎片化割裂、阵营化对抗倾向，中国未因外部压力 选择"脱钩断链"，而是以更开放的姿态坚定拥抱全球化；也没有固守传统发展路径，而是主动构建新发 展格局，探索安全与效率并重的增长模式。(记者陈植) 在金融监管方面，金融监管鼓励支持金融机构运用最新科技，优化金融服务、降低营运成本、提高管理 效率，同时加 ...

Global Asset Prices - Global bond market yields generally declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 3 basis points[7] - Major global stock indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 1.6%, and 2.1% respectively[7] - WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 5.8%[7] Central Bank Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is considering halting its balance sheet reduction, citing sufficient reserves and stable economic growth[9] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the monetary policy is in good shape but does not rule out further rate cuts if necessary[9] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government remains shut down, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, impacting federal operations[12] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 2 points to 98.8, marking a three-month low due to declining economic outlook and inventory concerns[13] - The October Beige Book reported stable economic activity, but increased layoffs and natural attrition were noted due to weak demand and ongoing economic uncertainty[13] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The IMF raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, but these remain below pre-tariff levels[25] - Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.2% month-on-month in August, with capital goods being a major drag[25] - Japan's industrial output contracted by 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline due to trade policy uncertainties and weak demand[25] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming data includes the U.S. September CPI and the October S&P Global PMI, which will be closely monitored for economic indicators[29]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most important theme for asset pricing this year, despite various influencing factors such as liquidity, regulatory policies, monetary policies, and risk appetite [1] Group 1: Economic Cycle Indicators - The resistance to the recovery of the economic cycle is diminishing, as indicated by leading indicators [1] - The slope of fundamental changes may be more critical for short-term asset performance [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The characteristics of short-term policies include a high utilization rate of effective fiscal policies, while incremental policies may focus on small-scale policy financial tools and loose monetary policies [1] - There is a risk of slowing M1 expansion, which may affect the willingness of active funds to enter the market [1]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the articles is that the financial statistics for the first three quarters indicate a stable growth in social financing and loans, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are positively impacting the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Statistics Overview - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4%, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased to 7.2%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [1]. - The total social financing stock reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, maintaining a high growth rate [1]. - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.43 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, creating a favorable monetary environment for the real economy [1]. Group 2: Changes in Loan Composition - The proportion of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell below 50%, with RMB loans increasing by 14.54 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 8.51 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - The net financing from government bonds reached 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, which is an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming a major support for social financing growth [2]. - Direct financing for real enterprises, particularly in the technology sector, has accelerated, with approximately 2.19 trillion yuan raised through direct financing methods in the first three quarters [2]. Group 3: Implications of Structural Changes - The decline in the proportion of RMB loans indicates a structural change in the financing landscape, reflecting a more mature and efficient financial system [3]. - The shift from heavy reliance on bank loans to a diversified financing approach helps mitigate financial risks and enhances the efficiency of capital allocation [3]. - The decrease in loan proportion is also linked to insufficient effective financing demand from certain sectors, particularly among households [3]. Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The decline in the proportion of RMB loans does not imply a reduction in financial support; rather, it is a necessary and positive phenomenon in the transition to high-quality economic development [4]. - The focus of future policies should shift towards optimizing the structure of credit rather than merely increasing the volume of loans [4]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, which is about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-cost financing environment [4]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for the implementation of moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for the central bank to utilize various tools to enhance liquidity in the market [5]. - The central bank may inject long-term liquidity into the banking system through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and other policy tools [6]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for stabilizing growth policies, with potential actions to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for key strategic areas [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, emphasizes that the pace of withdrawing monetary policy restrictions should be more cautious than in the past year to ensure inflation reliably returns to the 2% target [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Stance** - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) should adopt a more prudent pace for interest rate cuts from the current stage [1] - Pill previously voted against the decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4% [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - Pill expresses a more reassuring outlook on price pressures compared to earlier this year, but this improvement does not alter his cautious stance on the pace of policy adjustments [1]