| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约全线高开，早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.63%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.10%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 468 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1898 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 1430 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.45%。 | | | | | 3、现券市场：周三银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日下行，2 年期国债到期 | | | | TL、T、 | 收益率下行 0. ...

（原标题：如何灵活高效运用多种货币政策工具？） 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 孙璐璐 为促进价格水平回升，保持低息环境是各国央行的主流操作。对我国而言，降低利率是可选项，但相比 之下，另一个"必做题"或许更为重要——在发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能的同时，持续畅通 货币政策传导机制。近年来，中国人民银行在畅通货币政策的传导效率上，着力推动存量政策持续见 效，落实好存续的各类结构性货币政策工具，盘活低效存量金融资源；积极规范市场行为，包括整治金 融业"内卷式"竞争，治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，提升金融机构的自主理性定价能力等。这些着力 畅通利率传导机制的改革在明年有望持续推进，从而促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在 上述总体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适 ...

1、美股周三收盘，道指初步收跌0.47%，标普500指数跌1.16%，纳指跌1.8%；英伟达(NVDA.O)跌 3.8%，甲骨文(ORCL.N)跌5.4%，拼多多(PDD.O)跌3.6%；纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.73%，阿里巴巴 (BABA.N)跌1.4%，叮咚买菜(DDL.N)大涨22.8%。 2、纽约期银突破67美元/盎司，日内涨5.81%；现货 黄金日内涨超1.00%报4345.40美元/盎司；WTI原油涨3%报56.71美元/桶，布伦特原油涨近3%报60.79美 元/桶。 3、美国国会参议院通过2026财年国防授权法案，批准9010亿美元军费预算，包含对乌克兰军 事援助及对委内瑞拉限制条款，将送交特朗普签署。 4、美俄将于本周末在迈阿密就俄乌冲突举行会 谈。 5、美联储理事沃勒表示，货币政策仍处限制性区间，仍有50-100个基点降息空间，无需急于降 息，可稳步降至中性水平；就业市场疲软，增长接近于零。 6、美光科技(MU.O)第二财季营收展望183 亿至191亿美元，市场预期143亿美元。 7、甲骨文(ORCL.N)表示密歇根数据中心相关股权交易仍按计 划推进。 8、谷歌(GOOG.O)正与Met ...

当天盘前，除2个月期短债外，美债整体下跌，截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率上升3.1BPs至3.51%，10年期美债收益率涨3.1BPs 至4.18%，30年期美债收益率涨2.7BPs至4.85%。自上周五以来，2年期美债收益率与10年期美债收益率利差连续3个交易日维持在67BPs 的水平。 美国劳工部周二公布的报告显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，失业率升至4.6%，为四年多来最高水平。就业增长反弹幅度超出预 期，这表明，在特朗普激进贸易政策带来的经济不确定性下，劳动力市场并未出现实质性恶化。10月非农就业岗位减少10.5万个，为 2020年12月以来最大降幅，其中联邦政府就业减少16.2万个岗位，为2010年6月以来最大。美国商务部的另一份报告显示，10月零售销售 持平，9月增长了0.1%。 数据公布后，美国利率期货市场上调了美联储在1月下次政策会议上降息的概率。 新华财经北京12月17日电美债收益率周三（17日）走高，因投资者关注最新经济数据，并期待本周稍晚将公布的通胀数据。 欧洲市场参与者将密切关注欧洲央行的行动，欧洲央行将于周四召开今年最后一次政策会议。虽然市场预计欧洲央行将维持利率在2% ...

摩根士丹利宏观策略谈-年终收官时刻以全局视角眺望全球 20251217 摘要 中国名义 GDP 增长预期约为 4%，低于市场普遍预期。财政政策预计温 和前置，侧重基建投资，如城市更新和 AI 算力中心。若上半年形势有变， 或追加相当于 GDP 0.5%的新增财政空间。 货币政策方面，降息降准空间有限，预计全年降息幅度在 10-20 个基点， 更侧重结构性工具。房地产政策方面，按揭利率补贴可能在 2025 年二 季度推出，消费方面，延续以旧换新，并探讨服务业消费补贴。 中国在科技板块、电池、电动汽车、机器人、光伏等新兴产业领域具有 先发优势。预计中国占全球出口市场份额有望从 15%提升至 16%- 17%，受益于企业全球化和人才优势。 中国资本市场信心有所提升，新兴产业企业家精神重燃。政策层面逐步 纠偏，增加对消费、社保的支持，但转型速度偏慢，需关注消费民生问 题。 美联储 12 月降息后，预计 2026 年 1 月和 4 月仍有两次降息，上半年 流动性相对宽松，利好风险资产。美国就业环境面临压力，美联储决策 会考虑此因素。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调是什么？ 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调 ...

沃勒称，降息并不存在迫切性，美联储可以"稳步地"将政策利率逐步向中性水平靠拢，以应对通胀放缓 但经济仍具韧性的局面。 来源：央视新闻客户端 总台记者当地时间12月17日获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美国货币政策目前仍处于限制性 区间，美联储在未来具备进一步降息的空间。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

沃勒称，降息并不存在迫切性，美联储可以"稳步地"将政策利率逐步向中性水平靠拢，以应对通胀放缓 但经济仍具韧性的局面。（央视记者 曹健） 总台记者当地时间12月17日获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美国货币政策目前仍处于限制性 区间，美联储在未来具备进一步降息的空间。 ...

这份报告的编制过程受到此前政府停摆的特殊影响。由于十月数据合并发布，且调查周期延长，美国劳工统计局指出家庭调查数据的波动性高于往常。政府 停摆导致联邦雇员人数在报告中持续减少，尽管在统计参考周结束后政府恢复运转，相关雇员被计入就业人口，但停摆对数据的精确影响难以完全量化。 薪资增长放缓成为报告另一焦点。十一月美国平均时薪环比仅增长百分之零点一，增速较前月显著下降。这一指标受到经济学家密切关注，因其直接关系到 家庭消费能力与通胀动力。当前消费开支呈现分化态势，不同收入群体的支出行为差异日益明显。 近日公布的美国十一月非农就业报告为市场研判明年货币政策走向提供了关键依据，尽管数据本身因技术性因素存在一定局限性。报告显示，十一月美国非 农就业人数增加六点四万，略高于市场预期，但失业率升至百分之四点六，同时平均时薪环比增速放缓。这份混合信号的数据发布后，金融市场反应明显。 就业增长主要集中于医疗、社会援助及建筑业等领域。其中，美国私营部门就业人数增长有所改善，但运输仓储业与休闲招待业岗位出现下滑。有经济研究 指出，近期美国就业数据整体呈现疲软态势，私营部门招聘仅显现微弱且逐步的改善迹象。值得注意的是，人工智能数据中心 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias, indicating a relatively cautious investment attitude towards the bond market [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current interest rate is supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. The restraint of the central bank's monetary policy, the disappointment in bond - buying, the redistribution of new funds between the equity and fixed - income markets due to the entry of long - term funds, and the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies in the next year limit the significant decline in long - term interest rates. The trend of commodities and inflation expectations may make the bond market face more headwinds [3]. - The report maintains the view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices under the high - selling and low - buying framework, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are also recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Anti - involution Policy Consolidates the Inflation Floor 1.1 Inflation Floor Consolidation Disturbs the Pricing of Real Interest Rates - In 2025, the overall operation of treasury bond futures was tortuous. The market showed a high - level shock in the first half of the year and a fluctuating downward trend except in October. The 30Y - 10Y spread widened from about 10bp at the beginning of the year to over 30bp [7]. - The macro - economy remained in the bottom - shock pattern. Exports were affected by the Sino - US trade war in the first half of the year, and domestic demand recovery was not significant. In the second half of the year, the policy intensity declined, and the GDP growth rate slowed down in the third and fourth quarters due to weak downstream demand [7]. - The "asset shortage" of RMB assets still exists, but the structure has changed. The net long - position in treasury bond futures has decreased, and the market's expectations for the bond market have diverged. After the anti - involution policy, the bond market showed a fluctuating downward trend [9]. - The capital market reform policies have increased the importance of the equity market, and the "slow - bull" of the equity market has become the "political correctness" of the capital market. If the Fed cuts interest rates further and domestic policies are arranged beyond expectations next year, the equity market will continue to recover, and the bond market will only have structural opportunities [9]. 1.2 Monetary Policy Orientation and Micro - analysis of Treasury Bond Futures - The statements in the Q1 monetary policy implementation report indicated that the central bank's next - stage focus was to increase inflation, promote growth, and reduce costs. However, the bond market's recovery did not exceed the high at the beginning of the year. After the introduction of policies such as anti - involution and the resumption of the collection of value - added tax on bond interest, the market's inflation expectations and the central bank's orientation changed rapidly, and the market showed a fluctuating downward trend from the middle of the year [20]. - The Q2 report emphasized the importance of structure, and the Q3 report aimed to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment. The central bank's bond - buying, interest - rate cuts, and reserve - requirement ratio cuts at the end of the year were less than expected. In the framework of the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies and the relatively restrained monetary policy next year, treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate within a range with a downward bias [20]. - In terms of market characteristics, the trading volume of the 12 - contract is limited, and the short - term inter - delivery spread may be positively correlated with the market. The basis has converged during the repair process since early June, and there is a demand for profit - taking in positive hedging. The curve structure has limited factors to support long - term steepening, and the steepening space may be reversed [21]. 2. Maintain the Judgment of Fluctuating and Downward - biased Interest Rates 2.1 Interest Rates are Supported by the Central Bank and Capped by the Fundamentals - Since 2015, China's interest rates have generally shown a downward trend, with three upward trends lasting more than a quarter. The duration and amplitude of these upward trends have gradually decreased, and the economic significance behind them has changed from fundamental and inflation - driven to short - term expectation and policy - driven [30]. - China has been in the passive de - stocking phase for nearly 34 months, longer than the 21 - month period in 1998. The GDP deflator has not turned positive. The second growth curve based on globalization and the real - estate model has encountered difficulties, and the future growth path depends on internal stimulus and external cooperation [30]. - Since the "9.24" in 2024, the policy bottom of the new economic cycle has been clear. The policy orientation of the financial sector is to guide long - term funds into the equity market. Although the fundamental recovery is still insufficient, the policy orientation makes it difficult for the market to break through the previous low of interest rates in the short term. Meanwhile, the limited elasticity of fundamentals and inflation restricts the upward space of interest rates, resulting in a fluctuating market where interest rates are supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. In the long run, the inflow of funds into the equity market may lead to a fluctuating and downward - biased trend in treasury bond futures [31]. 2.2 Market Outlook for 2026 - The report maintains the view that the bond market will be fluctuating with a downward bias since the middle of the year. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are recommended [38].