Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing slight weakness ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with market expectations leaning towards an interest rate hike, while the US labor market data shows signs of weakness, leading to a bearish outlook for USD/JPY [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - There is a growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will initiate an interest rate hike, which is providing support for the yen [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor indicated that the likelihood of achieving economic and price expectations is increasing, with Japan's inflation target nearing fulfillment [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Recent non-farm employment data from the US shows a mixed trend, indicating a gradual slowdown in labor market growth, which has intensified expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - This trend is limiting the short-term rebound potential for the US dollar, indirectly applying pressure on the USD/JPY pair [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the USD/JPY has been declining from recent highs, forming a short-term bearish consolidation structure, with oscillators showing negative signals [2] - The current price is near monthly lows, and a break below this support level would signal the start of a new downtrend [2] - Key resistance levels are being tested, and a breakthrough could trigger a short-term bullish correction, with targets set at recent key round numbers [2]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收涨5.05%，铂金主力收涨7%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑停 火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性 方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍 威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期 美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供 应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡，长期 ...

后续重点关注周四11月CPI和周五PCE数据，要是通胀数据疲软，可能进一步推高金价，想入手或变现 的朋友别错过信号。 今日黄金价格：2025年12月17日。 家人们注意了，今天金价上涨，银价创历史新高。受美国就业数据喜忧参半、美联储降息预期升温，还 有地缘局势加剧、美元和美债收益下跌等因素影响，贵金属全线走高。 截至上午18点22分，伦敦现货黄金报4320美元/盎司，美黄金4363美元/盎司；现货白银过66美元大关， 再创历史新高。国内方面，实时金价979元/克，黄金回收价960元/克，周大福、潮宏基等品牌金饰克价 多在1353元左右，基本持平昨日。 ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，虽然CSPT小组达成降低矿铜产能负荷等共识，但目前冶炼利润尚有硫 酸支撑，且临近年底冶炼或仍回升。进出口方面，因出口打开，国内可能继续有出口安排。消费端，近 期下游消费表现仍走弱，开工保持在季节性低位。国内平衡无过剩压力的主要驱动或来源于出口。海外 方面，LME注销仓单大幅提升，紧张预期提前反映。展望后市，宏观边际上驱动放缓，基本面非美紧 张预期持续存在，短期宏微观驱动分化，价格或回归宽幅震荡。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情回暖，收盘上涨0.4%。喜忧参半的美国非农数据一定程度提振美联储降 息预期，市场氛围偏暖，高铜价对需求的压制仍然存在，但矿端支撑同样较强。 隔夜公布的美国11月非农数据喜忧参半，虽然新增就业人口超过预期，但是失业率攀升至4.6%，为逾 四年高位，考虑到失业率的攀升可能受美国政府停摆影响，对于美国劳动力市场表现后续仍需跟踪。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费低位运行，铜精矿市场活跃度一般，更多聚焦于长单谈判，矿紧仍将持续对 铜价形成支撑。上周五沪铜再创新高，最近期价也一直高位震荡，精废价差仍然高企，精铜消费受抑 制，12月初以来国内精铜社会库存持续回升，截至周初升至17万吨 ...

本周一，人民币对美元汇率盘中大涨，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破7.05元的关口，创下14个月以来的新高。 其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高升至7.0470元，离岸人民币最高升至7.0453元。 可能一些小伙伴要问了：离岸和在岸人民币有什么区别？这次的人民币汇率大涨有何不同？对我们又有什么影响？ 简单来说，在岸人民币和离岸人民币，核心区别在于交易和管理的"地理位置"不同。 01在岸人民币 在岸人民币就是在中国内地交易的、受到央行严格监管的人民币。它的汇率受到政策引导，所以波动相对小。 02离岸人民币 所谓离岸人民币，就是交易地点在中国内地以外（比如中国香港、新加坡、伦敦等）的人民币，目前中国香港是最活跃的离岸人民币市场。 | 7.04270 ↓ | 最 高 | 7.05559 今 开 | 7.05534 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.01072 -0.15% | 最 低 | 7.04175 昨 收 1 | 7.05341 | | 52周最高 | 7.42911 买 价 | 7.04193 最低买价 | 7.04098 | 我们可以把离岸人民币汇率理解成在境外买卖人民币的" ...

富格林作为稳健营运近16年的资深企业，凭借享誉亚洲500强名企的雄厚实力为投资者严厉曝光各式欺诈套路，坚持护航资产增值之路。周二（12月16日） 现货黄金价格在高位震荡，受到了美国就业数据、地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。最新公布的非农数据强化了市场对美联储进一步降 息的预期，俄乌冲突的最新进展为黄金提供了潜在的避险支撑。投资者们正密切关注即将公布的CPI和PCE数据，以及美联储官员的讲话，这些因素将共同 塑造黄金的短期走势。投资者如面对欺诈套路疑惑，可随时在线联系富格林分析师团队，善用提供的即时策略意见高效把握曝光的获利良机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中一度重回4330美元上方，但未能站稳此处，再次回至4300大关附近震荡，最终收跌0.07%，报4302.36美元/盎司。 在经历政府停摆导致的多次延迟后，美国周二公布数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期的5.1万人，显示就业增长出现一定反弹。 尽管就业增长超出预期，但失业率从9月的4.4%升至4.6%，创下四年多来最高水平。总体来看，美国劳动力市场仍保持韧性，但增长速度减缓，这增强了市 场对美联储在2026年可能进一步 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo wide - range adjustments and suggests paying attention to the support at the 2.28 level [3][4]. - Upstream zinc mine imports have declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, which has led to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits, with expected significant production decline [3]. - Recently, the London zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector has some positive factors due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has corrected, the trading atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has remained high and stable, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,035 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 194,756 lots, down 12,790 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,722 lots, down 4,540 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 80,577 tons, down 11,339 tons; the LME inventory is 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 16.47 dollars/ton, up 15.14 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,640 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 16.28%, down 1.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 16.27%, down 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.23%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.88%, up 0.59 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US November non - farm payrolls increased more than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US 12 - month Markit composite PMI hit a six - month low, with price indicators rising sharply and employment indicators weak. The eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction, Germany had its worst performance in 10 months, and France returned to the expansion range [3]. - The central financial office stated that the investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits [3].

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. Labor Department released combined non-farm employment data for October and November, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[5]. - October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 162,000 jobs in the federal government sector[6]. - Private sector employment increased by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October, with a three-month moving average of 75,000[6]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose from 4.44% in October to 4.56% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021[7]. - The labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[7]. - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 rose significantly from 13.2% to 16.3%, indicating challenges for young job seekers[8]. Group 3: Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly wages increased by 3.75% year-over-year in October and 3.51% in November, with month-over-month increases of 0.44% and 0.14%, respectively[9]. - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.37% in October and 4.34% in November, reflecting overall labor income trends[12]. - Weekly hours worked averaged 34.2 hours in October and 34.3 hours in November, indicating a slight increase in overtime trends[12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The data suggests a mixed employment landscape, with structural demand in healthcare and social services, while public sector and manufacturing remain weak[7]. - The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating resilient job demand despite rising unemployment[14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 increased to 62.7% from 42.4% following the employment data release[15].

从库存数据来看，伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)2025年11月的白银库存已降至2.72万吨，与历史最高库存 3.67万吨相比，下降了25.9%，显示出欧洲现货供应的紧张局势。而上海期货交易所(SHFE)截至12月11 日的白银库存更是仅为780.6吨，与其历史峰值3075.53吨相比，锐减了近75%，表明亚洲市场实物白银 同样面临极度短缺的状况。 尽管纽约商品交易所(COMEX)的白银库存年内增长超过50%，当前库存达到1.42万吨，但由于市场对美 国关税政策及物流瓶颈的担忧，这部分库存难以有效回流至伦敦以缓解当地的短缺问题。在此背景下， 大量白银被ETF等投资工具实物锁定，进一步加剧了LBMA体系内可用于即时交割的流动性紧张状况。 因此，当市场买盘集中涌现时，伦敦等核心交割地的可交割实物严重不足，直接触发了挤仓机制，推动 白银期货价格在全球市场同步飙升。 此外，近期铂金价格也呈现出同步走强的态势，同样受到现货短缺与流动性挤仓的影响。据彭博社报 道，一个月期铂金租赁利率持续维持在10%以上的高位，虽然较7月超35%的峰值有所回落，但仍远高 于接近零的正常水平，这反映出持有者惜售情绪浓厚，可交割现货极度稀缺的现实 ...

昨日金价震荡主要是市场对俄乌和谈的预期直接削弱了黄金的"避险需求，而晚间公布的美国经济数据，又在一定程度上支 撑了金价。 | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年12月17日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 963. 10 | 元/克 | | 菜直黄金 | 939. 10 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 928. 60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 932. 50 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 946. 80 | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中最高涨至4334.84美元/盎司，但很快出现回落，最终收报4302.28美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%。今日现货黄金涨 势再起，截至发稿，金价暂报4336.15美元/盎司，涨幅0.79%。 继昨日涨势放缓后，今日国内金店金价继续呈现整体企稳格局，市场波动进一步收窄，行情进入高位盘整阶段。其中，周 大福、潮宏基等品牌的报价保持在1353元/克的近期高位。上海中国黄金价格稳定在1255元/克，继续为市场最低价。两者之 间的价差为98元/克，与 ...