Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant upward movement, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and heightened geopolitical tensions that are fostering safe-haven demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose by 1.59% to $4,400.530 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the growing market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Data - Key upcoming events include the potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may lead to technical adjustments in gold and silver positions, with estimated sell-off volumes potentially accounting for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December, set to be released on January 9, is expected to significantly impact gold prices [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, including military actions and diplomatic statements, are contributing to the rise in safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone attacks in Russia, attributed to Ukraine, which adds to the overall geopolitical uncertainty [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 82.8% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1% [4]. - The dual influence of monetary policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment is expected to continue driving gold prices in the near term [4].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时"管理"委内 瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱 1 月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于 1 月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选， 称已有心仪人选且未改变。国内 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，升至扩张区间， 经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人 持有债基超过 7 日、机构持有债基超过 30 日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流 动性、交易属性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动 空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内 瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在 美国代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响 在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开 始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in technology stocks on the first trading day of the new year, particularly in sectors such as internet, cloud computing, big data, and consumer electronics [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792) saw an intraday increase of 3.44%, with notable gains from individual stocks like Kuaishou, which rose over 11%, and Bilibili, which increased by more than 3% [1] - According to Wind data, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks is projected to reach 1,404.844 billion HKD by 2025, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - Since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the total net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 5.1 trillion HKD, indicating a strong and sustained investment trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the net inflow trend is likely to continue, supported by a synchronized easing in both China and the U.S., along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance liquidity [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792) closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, with its top ten constituent stocks including major tech giants like Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Meituan, which collectively account for nearly 60% of the ETF's weight [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) experienced a strong opening on January 5, 2026, with a jump of over 4%, indicating positive market sentiment towards internet leaders in Hong Kong [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) surged over 4% and broke through the annual line, with major internet stocks like Kuaishou rising over 12% and Bilibili increasing by more than 5% [1][4]. - The ETF's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 25.31, which is significantly lower than the 5-year average of 29.34%, highlighting its value compared to other indices like the ChiNext and Nasdaq [3][7]. - The ETF's average daily trading volume in 2025 was nearly 600 million yuan, supporting T+0 trading and indicating good liquidity [8]. Group 2: Economic Context - Recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the peak of year-end foreign exchange settlements in China have accelerated the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [3][4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to enhance global economic recovery, which may boost domestic export growth and profit improvement [3][4]. - The overall market outlook for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is positive, with expectations of continued net inflows from foreign and southbound capital due to a favorable monetary policy environment [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Hong Kong Internet ETF is passively tracking the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, with significant holdings in major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for over 78% of the top ten holdings [7][8]. - For investors looking to reduce volatility while still focusing on technology, the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) is recommended, which combines high-growth tech stocks with stable dividend-paying companies [8].

Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund sales regulations in China, the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on oil prices, and the overall economic indicators reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Public Fund Sales Regulations - The new regulations for public fund sales have officially been implemented, easing the redemption fees for bond funds. Individual investors holding bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days will be exempt from redemption fees, alleviating concerns about liquidity and trading characteristics of bond funds [1][3]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the holiday period. The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, are expected to lead to increased instability in the region, which may affect oil exports that were already under U.S. sanctions. Short-term oil prices are likely to trend upwards due to these developments, while medium-term impacts may arise from the anticipated reduction in Venezuelan oil production [2][12]. - The long-term outlook will depend on the control exerted by U.S. proxies in Venezuela, with the exit of Venezuelan production potentially allowing OPEC to increase output, leading to a subsequent decline in oil prices after an initial rise [2][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone and an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][3]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reinforcing economic resilience and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in January, which in turn pushed long-term yields higher [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the start of 2026, with gold and silver initially rising before a sudden drop in gold prices, while physical gold jewelry sales showed a notable increase due to promotions and consumer interest [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, 2026, spot gold prices initially surged, reaching over $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.89%, while spot silver prices peaked at $74.34 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 4% [2]. - However, by the end of the trading day, spot gold fell below $4,310 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 0.21%, and spot silver also retreated below $74 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Despite fluctuations in international gold prices, local jewelry stores in Jinan reported increased foot traffic, driven by promotional activities that attracted consumers [4]. - A specific jewelry store offered a promotional price of 1,188 yuan per gram, along with additional discounts, leading to a surge in consumer purchases [4]. - The popularity of small-weight gold items, such as 20-milligram keychains and 1-gram gold beans, has also been noted, particularly as gifts for the upcoming Spring Festival [6]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Institutions maintain a long-term optimistic view on gold, citing factors such as a weak dollar, a potential interest rate cut cycle, and ongoing geopolitical risks as supportive elements for gold prices [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce in 2026, while JPMorgan has set a target of $5,055 per ounce, indicating strong long-term growth potential for gold [7]. - In contrast, the outlook for silver is more cautious, with concerns about potential price corrections due to recent excessive increases, despite long-term demand from technology and green industries [8].

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold and silver prices declining sharply after a record-breaking performance in 2025, raising concerns about market fragility and future trends [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 4, 2026, gold prices fell from a historical high of $4549.69 per ounce at the end of 2025 to $4332.85 per ounce, a weekly decline of over 4.8% [1]. - Silver prices dropped from $83.943 per ounce to $72.77 per ounce, marking a decline of 13.3% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Data indicates a shift in market sentiment, with speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures remaining at 12.7% of total holdings, but the increase in fund long positions (9241 contracts) was less than the increase in commercial short positions (10348 contracts), leading to a contraction in net long positions [2]. - In the silver market, an increase in arbitrage positions (2118 contracts) suggests that funds are managing volatility through risk hedging rather than outright short selling [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.1% on January 2, 2026, which, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data (256,000 jobs added), raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a baseline forecast predicting that central bank gold purchases and potential Fed rate cuts could drive gold prices to $4900 per ounce [2]. - Morgan Stanley is more optimistic, projecting an average price of $5055 per ounce in Q4 2026 and a long-term target of $6000 per ounce by 2028 [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is expected to experience greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial characteristics, with long-term support from the global green energy transition and tight supply, although short-term technical selling pressure may test the $65 per ounce support level [3]. - Analysts suggest potential future prices of $5000 for gold and $100 for silver, contingent on breaking current resistance levels of $4520 for gold and $78.5 for silver [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, but it may face short - term pressure and volatility. For Shanghai gold, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the mid - line [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue supported by factors like falling global silver inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations, but it needs to beware of policy shifts and high volatility. A wait - and - see approach is also recommended for the mid - line [32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory (Gold Futures) 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. From late 2025 to early 2026, the gold price showed a high - level correction and then stabilized. Short - term factors led to a price drop from the high, but the mid - to long - term core logic for the rise remains unchanged. The price found support in the range of $4300 - 4350 per ounce (about 970 - 980 yuan per gram in China) and rebounded. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 was to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan per gram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 is also to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 980 - 1000 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 950 - 970 yuan per gram. Buy on dips and control positions due to large short - term fluctuations [10][11]. 3.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][24]. Group 4: Summary by Directory (Silver Futures) 4.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward trend and at the end of it. From late 2025 to early 2026, the silver price showed an extreme trend of soaring and then crashing, followed by a volatile stabilization. Short - term fluctuations were due to factors like margin hikes by the exchange. The mid - to long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as falling inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [32]. 4.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for silver contract 2604 was that it ran strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 18,000 - 18,500 yuan per kilogram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for silver contract 2604 is that it runs at a high level, with an upper pressure level of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and a lower support level of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan per kilogram. Buy on dips and control positions due to increased short - term fluctuations [35][36]. 4.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][47][49].