今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌早盘走势较为温和，午后受铜铝大涨带动涨幅拉升；沪锌2603主力合约开 盘价25450元/吨，最高价26300元/吨，最低价25260元/吨，昨日结算价25215元/吨，今日收盘价25950元/ 吨，涨735元，涨幅2.91%。今日沪锌2603主力合约成交量329040手增加44698手，持仓量114499手减少 3700手。伦锌北京时间14：54最新价报3471美元，涨95.5美元。 今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报25250-25350元/吨，均价25300元，涨60元，1#锌价报 25170-25270元/吨，均价25220元，涨60元；广东现货0#锌报25070-25370元/吨，均价25220元，涨70 元，1#锌价25000-25300元/吨，均价25150元，涨70元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在25240-25350元/吨之 间，1#锌在25170-25270元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2602合约0#锌贴水50-升水60元/吨，1#锌贴水120-贴水 20元/吨。对比沪期锌2603合约0#锌贴水100-升水10元/吨，1#锌贴水170-贴水70元/吨。 c ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月 FOMC 会议点评 今年联储降息的焦点在哪？ 主要观点 ❖ 1 月 FOMC 会议：暂停降息，符合预期 1、暂停降息，利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。12 位 FOMC 票委中， 2 票反对，理事米兰和沃勒希望降息 25BP。 2、与暂停降息相一致，本次会议声明对经济和就业的表述边际转向乐观。对 经济增长的表述从"温和扩张"转为"稳健扩张"。虽然"就业增长依然较低"， 但是失业率从"上升"转为"呈现企稳迹象"。对通胀的表述，删除了"2025 年以来有所上升"，但"依然较高"。 3、发布会上，鲍威尔认为通胀上行风险和就业下行风险有所减弱，后续决策 并未预设，加息不是基本假设。媒体关注重点在"美联储人事"、"金融市场波 动"（美元汇率波动、贵金属价格上涨）上，鲍威尔均直接回避，不予置评。 ❖ 今年联储降息的焦点在哪？ 关于今年降息节奏和幅度，经济因素来看，重点在就业修复趋势，而非通胀掣 肘。非经济因素来看，重点在选举压力下的潜在财政刺激，而非联储人事变动。 从经济因素来看，重点在于就业修复趋势，而非通胀的掣肘。 关于就业，10 万或是分水岭。2 ...

1月29日凌晨，美联储召开2026年首次议息会议，宣布将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间，符合市 场预期。此前，美联储已分别在去年9月、10月和12月连续三次降息25个基点。 决议公布后，国际金价强势上攻，一度逼近5600美元。截至发稿，现货黄金徘徊在5500美元的高位，日 内涨幅约2.3%，2026年开年以来已累计涨超28%，涨逾1200美元。白银价格同样大涨，现货白银突破 119美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。 这一情绪也传导至A股市场。29日早盘，贵金属概念集体爆发，招金黄金9天6板，中国黄金5连板，湖 南黄金4连板，四川黄金、晓程科技、山金国际、兴业银锡等纷纷高开。 事实上，机构对黄金的看多预期早已提前释放。此前，已有多家机构相继上调黄金目标价。其中，摩根 士丹利将2026年下半年的黄金目标价提高至5700美元，当前金价距这一目标仅一步之遥。美银和法国兴 业均看高至6000美元，德意志银行则预测年内金价有望触及6000-6900美元。 中信证券在研报中指出，本轮金价走势多被地缘因素和市场情绪主导。此外，各国央行购金潮也是本轮 黄金大牛市的直接驱动力。如中国人民银行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年全 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一瑜中的 文：华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 1月FOMC会议：暂停降息，符合预期 1、暂停降息，利率维持在3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。12位FOMC票委中，2票反对，理事米兰和沃勒 希望降息25BP。 2、与暂停降息相一致，本次会议声明对经济和就业的表述边际转向乐观。对经济增长的表述从"温和扩 张"转为"稳健扩张"。虽然"就业增长依然较低"，但是失业率从"上升"转为"呈现企稳迹象"。对通胀的表 述，删除了"2025年以来有所上升"，但"依然较高"。 3、发布会上，鲍威尔认为通胀上行风险和就业下行风险有所减弱，后续决策并未预设，加息不是基本 假设。媒体关注重点在"美联储人事"、"金融市场波动"（美元汇率波动、贵金属价格上涨）上，鲍威尔 均直接回避，不予置评。 今年联储降息的焦点在哪？ 关于今年降息节奏和幅度，经济因素来看，重点在就业修复趋势，而非通胀掣肘。非经济因素来看，重 点在选举压力下的潜在财政刺激，而非联储人事变动。 从经济因素来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to pause interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 3.5%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [2][15]. Economic Factors - The focus for this year's interest rate cuts is on the employment recovery trend rather than inflation constraints. The employment growth threshold is set at 100,000 jobs per month, which could determine the Fed's future actions regarding rate cuts [4][10]. - The employment market has shown signs of weakness since 2025, influenced by factors such as immigration restrictions, government layoffs, and structural impacts from AI. The Fed may pause rate cuts if job growth stabilizes around 100,000 per month [4][10]. - Inflation should not be viewed as a precondition for rate cuts but rather as a feedback mechanism from the economy. Current inflation risks are considered weak, with core goods inflation unlikely to rise significantly [4][10]. Non-Economic Factors - The potential for fiscal stimulus under election pressure is a key non-economic factor that could affect rate cut expectations later in the year. This is more significant than changes in Fed personnel [11][12]. - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to drive fiscal policies, with Trump potentially introducing additional fiscal measures to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail [12]. FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC's recent meeting reflected a more optimistic tone regarding economic growth, shifting from "moderate expansion" to "solid expansion." The unemployment rate is showing signs of stabilization, although job growth remains low [15][16]. - Powell emphasized the importance of Fed independence during the press conference, avoiding questions about personnel changes and market volatility [16][17]. Market Reactions - The market anticipates two rate cuts this year, with a slight decrease in the probability of a June rate cut from 82.7% to 75.1%. Asset performance has been moderate as the market awaits earnings reports from major companies [20].

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 29,645, with an opening price of 29,018 yuan/kg and a current price of 29,940 yuan/kg, reflecting a 3.17% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 30,280 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 28,750 yuan/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1] - The daily chart shows that silver TD has continued its upward momentum, rising over 1% yesterday and marking the fifth consecutive day of gains, with current prices showing a 3% increase [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell advised his successor to avoid involvement in political matters, emphasizing the importance of engaging with elected officials for democratic legitimacy [2] - The Fed's recent statement and press conference were perceived as hawkish, with economic activity described as "robust" and the removal of language regarding employment downturn risks [2] - Inflation is stabilizing but remains "slightly high," shifting the Fed's focus from unemployment to inflation, with expectations that interest rates may not decrease in the near term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking a pause in its easing policy after three consecutive "preemptive" rate cuts from September to December 2025, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic economic outlook [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision was passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with one less dissenting vote compared to the previous meeting [1] - The language in the meeting statement was upgraded from describing economic expansion as "moderate" to "robust," and the mention of rising unemployment risks was removed, indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [1][2] - Powell stated that the growth outlook has improved significantly since the last meeting, and current policy is not "clearly tight," suggesting that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-related inflation will dissipate by mid-2026, a delay from previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the fastest growth since 2021, with stable consumer spending [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, and while non-farm payroll growth has slightly cooled, the job market remains stable, alleviating some concerns for the Fed [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, with inflation pressures expected to increase in the first half of the year, which may restrict further rate cuts [3] - The first rate cut is likely to be delayed until after the new chair takes office in June, unless there is a significant deterioration in the job market [3] - The Fed may have room for about two rate cuts in 2026, with potential cuts in June and before the September midterm elections, balancing economic support with political considerations [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining but briefly surpassing the 7000-point mark [4] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold rising over 4.5%, reaching a historical high [4]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 美联储如期按兵不动，关注伊朗局势 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资源的局势明朗。同时，特朗普近期就格陵兰岛一系列事件使得美国 ...

然而，内部分歧显露无遗。美联储理事沃勒(被视为鲍威尔5月任期结束后潜在接任者之一)和理事米兰 (目前从白宫经济顾问职位休假中)均投票支持降息25个基点，与多数决策者意见相左。 主流机构与市场观点普遍认为，美联储宽松周期已进入明确延长期，在鲍威尔5月离任之前，央行大概 率维持观望姿态，除非出现劳动力市场明显恶化、通胀超预期加速回落这两类核心变量，否则2026年上 半年重启降息的可能性极低。此外，沃勒投下的反对票，被市场广泛解读为其角逐美联储主席提名的鸽 派姿态，政治因素对美联储后续政策的潜在影响，成为新的关注点。 周四(1月29日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格继续走强，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报5554.72美元/盎司，上涨 2.59%，最高触及5591.61美元/盎司，最低下探5414.11美元/盎司。虽然美联储利率决议按兵不动，同时 美元指数超跌反弹，但是市场已经在题前计价美元走弱，叠加地缘局势的不确定性支撑金价加速走高， 短期多头情绪过热，谨防高位大幅震荡。 周三，美联储维持利率不变，将基准利率保持在3.50%-3.75%的区间内，投票结果为10:2。美联储主席 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，经济增长前景明显改善，通胀 ...

摘要今日周四(1月29日))亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1239.52元/克，较前一交易日上涨29.99元，涨幅 2.48%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.72元/克，盘中最高触及1249.13元/克，最低下探至 1209.47元/克。 今日周四(1月29日))亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1239.52元/克，较前一交易日上涨29.99元，涨幅 2.48%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1209.72元/克，盘中最高触及1249.13元/克，最低下探至 1209.47元/克。 【要闻速递】 美联储1月议息会按下"暂停键"，利率维持3.5%-3.75%不变，既未加息也未降息，主打"观望"。会上出 现分歧：理事米兰与沃勒支持降息25个基点，急于为市场松绑;鲍威尔则重申当前利率已处中性区间上 端，强调"政策无固定路线，一切看数据"，并明确若关税推升的通胀见顶回落，降息将提上日程，同时 提醒继任者远离政治干扰，专注本职。简言之，鲍威尔既不冒进也不急于降息，先看数据;两位同僚已 按捺不住"放水"冲动，后续走向全看通胀表现。 特朗普一句"对美元贬值挺舒服"，直接让美元暴跌1.1%，创去年4月来最大单日跌幅; ...