Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Tariff false alarm affects price spread [2] - Silver: Minor rebound [2] - Copper: Strong domestic spot prices support the price [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Reduced smelting output supports the price [2] - Tin: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Alumina: Slight upward movement in a sideways trend [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with steel prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Gold and silver prices declined, with Comex gold 2510 down 1.87% and Comex silver 2510 down 2.25% [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes of gold and silver futures decreased, and open interests also showed changes [5] - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5, and SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 68 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 83,720 ounces, and Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) increased by 370,507 ounces [5] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of gold and silver showed different degrees of change [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1 [7] Copper - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.68%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 0.42% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 27,135, and the open interest increased by 3,992 [9] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,003 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 150 tons [9] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of copper showed different degrees of change [9] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.33%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.66% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 6,337, and the open interest decreased by 1,509 [12] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of zinc showed different degrees of change [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.24%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk fell 0.17% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 4,615, and the open interest decreased by 4,728 [15] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of lead showed different degrees of change [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.22%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 0.33% [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 10,109, and the open interest decreased by 117 [18] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 143 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 40 tons [18] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of tin showed different degrees of change [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract, alumina main contract, and cast aluminum alloy main contract showed different price changes [25] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [25] - **Inventory and Price Spread Changes**: Inventory and price spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed price increases [28] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [28] - **Industry News**: There were news about nickel export threats, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension in the nickel and stainless steel industries [28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [32]

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events - Developed market indices experienced a rebound, with the Nasdaq index rising by 3.9%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the Ho Chi Minh index up by 6.0% and the SENSEX in India down by 0.9% [3][11] - The WTI crude oil price fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce [26][30] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, effective August 7, with exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - On August 6, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total to 50%, effective August 28 [32][33] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a potential slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June decreased by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - **Steel**: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - **PP**: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Canola Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - **Corn**: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - **Pigs**: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

美联储政策重心如何权衡？ 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，截至6月，美国企业承担了64%的成本。消费者承担了22%的关税，而 外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。但这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者 将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为25%，美国公司为8%。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，看看更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和 外国出口商之间分配。与此同时，消费者日益增长的疲劳感使提高总体价格变得更加困难。该行继续预 计通胀将在今年下半年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左 右。 政策前景 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响 范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动， 并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政策宽松的节奏。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测，7月份CPI指数将带来关税上涨推高价格的进一步迹象 ...

2025.08.12 本文字数：1890，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响 范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动， 并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政策宽松的节奏。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测，7月份CPI指数将带来关税上涨推高价格的进一步迹象。 整体物价方面，受OPEC+增产及全球贸易形势不确定影响，上月原油价格疲软为能源通胀的低迷提供 了基础。由于汽油价格下跌和食品通胀略有缓和，预计7月份总体通胀率将温和上升0.2%，同比增速稳 定在2.7%，略低于年初水平。 然而，不考虑能源和食品，7月份核心CPI或上涨0.3%，这将标志着六个月来最强劲的增长，并将同比 增速推高0.2个百分点至3.0%。 另一方面，服务业通胀放缓带来的下行压力开始减弱。富国银行在发给第一财经记者的报告中写道，7 月核心服务价格将增长0.3%，略高于3月 ...

2025.08. 12 本文字数：1890，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储 的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动，并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政 策宽松的节奏。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，截至6月，美国企业承担了64%的成本。消费者承担了22%的关税，而外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担 了14%的关税。但这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为25%，美国公司为8%。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，看看更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和外国出口商之间分配。与此同时，消 费者日益增长的疲劳感使提高总体价格变得更加困难。该行继续预计通胀将在今年下半年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减 指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左右。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测 ...

当地时间周一，美股市场表现承压，三大股指收盘均告下跌。其中，道指下跌 0.45% ，纳指下跌 0.30% ，标普 500 指数下跌 0.25% 。 科技股方面，英伟达下跌 0.3% ， AMD 下跌 0.28% ，苹果股价下跌 0.95% ；而特斯拉则逆势 上涨 2.85% ，该公司已向英国能源监管机构提交家庭用电供应许可证申请。 热门中概股收盘呈现涨跌分化态势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌 0.29% 。 具体来看，阿里巴巴、拼多多、百度跌幅均超 1% ，京东下跌近 1% ；与之相对，腾讯音乐上涨 超 2% ，小鹏汽车涨幅超 5% ，哔哩哔哩上涨超 1% ，贝壳上涨 1% 。 01 黄金不会被加征关税 北京时间8月12日凌晨1:30，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文明确表示： " 黄金不会被征收关 税！ " 不过，特朗普的表态并未引发金价显著短线波动。发文后，现货黄金仍维持 1.58% 的跌幅，在日 低 3341.40 美元附近持稳； COMEX 黄金期货则维持 2.55% 的跌幅，持稳于日低 3402 美元附 近。 此后，现货黄金跌幅有所收窄，从 3341 美元附近回升至 3354.61 美元，日内整体仍下跌 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [1] - Large-cap tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, Facebook down 0.45%, Nvidia down 0.3%, Google down 0.21%, and Microsoft down 0.02% [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla saw an increase of nearly 3%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains [3] - Fannie Mae rose over 15% and Freddie Mac increased by more than 13%, both reaching their highest closing levels since 2008 [3] Sector Performance - Bank stocks showed mixed results, with Morgan Stanley up 0.53%, Bank of America up 0.38%, and JPMorgan up 0.32%. Conversely, Citigroup fell by 0.44%, Goldman Sachs down 0.24%, and Wells Fargo down 0.31% [5] - Gold stocks generally declined, with Harmony Gold, Eldorado Gold, and AngloGold down over 1%, and Coeur Mining down 0.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with individual stocks showing mixed performance. Xpeng Motors rose nearly 6%, Tencent Music up over 2%, while NIO, Bilibili, and Xiaoma Zhixing increased by over 1%. On the downside, WeRide fell over 4%, TAL Education down more than 3%, and Li Auto down nearly 3% [6] Commodity Prices - The FTSE A50 futures index fell by 0.32% to 13,881 points [9] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel (0.13% increase) and Brent crude up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel (0.06% increase) [9] - Gold futures dropped by 2.78% to $3,394.1 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [10] Currency Exchange - The offshore RMB (CNH) against the USD was reported at 7.1965, a decrease of 72 points from the previous Friday's close [11] Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to provide insights into the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [12][13]

Group 1 - The Trump administration announced that gold imports will not be subject to tariffs, countering earlier reports of a potential 39% tariff on gold bars imported from Switzerland [1][2][4] - Following the announcement, gold prices initially surged but began to decline as the White House clarified the situation [4][5] - The uncertainty created by the tariff discussions impacted the bullion market, affecting dealers, refiners, and institutional investors [8] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Patrol had indicated that gold would face reciprocal tariffs, which led to market volatility [1][5] - The announcement of a potential tariff had previously driven U.S. December gold futures to an all-time high of $3,534.10 per ounce [5] - The situation highlights the rarity of gold being targeted by protectionist measures compared to other commodities, suggesting a need for close monitoring of its market implications [8]

Core Viewpoint - Weyco Group, Inc. has faced significant challenges in its recent earnings report, with declines in both sales and earnings attributed to economic uncertainty and increased tariffs [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter 2025 EPS of 24 cents, down from 59 cents in the prior-year quarter [1]. - Net sales decreased by 9% to $58.2 million from $63.9 million year-over-year [2]. - Net earnings fell 60% to $2.3 million compared to $5.6 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - Gross earnings as a percentage of net sales declined to 43.3% from 43.9% [2]. Segment Performance - In the North American Wholesale segment, sales dropped 9% to $45.6 million, with major brands like Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, Florsheim, and BOGS experiencing declines of 11%, 10%, 5%, and 14% respectively [3]. - Retail sales fell 11% to $6.8 million, driven by weaker demand on Florsheim and Stacy Adams websites [3]. - The "Other" category, which includes operations in Australia and South Africa, saw a 4% sales decline to $5.8 million, resulting in an operating loss of $0.2 million [3]. Management Commentary - The CEO described the quarter as facing "headwinds" from tariffs and reduced consumer spending, with expectations of continued economic uncertainty [4]. - Management highlighted the company's strong financial position, which they believe will support long-term growth despite current challenges [4]. - Efforts to diversify sourcing away from China to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and India were emphasized [4]. Influencing Factors - The earnings decline was primarily due to reduced consumer spending and higher import costs from tariffs, with the China-specific tariff peaking at 145% in April 2025 [5]. - Weyco has taken measures to mitigate cost pressures, including pre-purchasing inventory and negotiating supplier cost reductions [5]. Guidance - Management anticipates ongoing top-line pressure in the coming months due to tariffs and weak consumer sentiment, with potential seasonal softness in casual and dress footwear [6]. Other Developments - On August 5, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 27 cents per share, payable on September 30, 2025 [7]. - The company allocated $3.1 million for share repurchases and approximately $0.7 million for capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 [7].