华安期货：8月20日国债期货连续震荡偏弱 重要信息： 1、股市走弱叠加央行逆回购放量安抚市场情绪，现券期货震荡暂企稳。银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，1年以内的短券表现较弱；国债期 货全线收涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%。央行开展5803亿元逆回购操作，净投放4657亿元，银行间资金面整体仍维持小幅收敛态势。 2、央行新增支农支小再贷款额度1000亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。 核心逻辑： 近期金融市场风险偏好回升，股债跷跷板效应明显，压制债市情绪，国债期货连续震荡偏弱。总体，随着政府债券发行规模逐步达到及度过高 峰，债市供给压力有望缓和。同时，地缘因素及贸易政策变化仍有很大变数，对全球经济格局及金融环境有潜在冲击，避险情绪利好债市。 市场展望： 建议可逢低布局多单。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Due to the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting, the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the gold price continued to fall. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to expand to 2.6 yuan/gram. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with good expectations for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - Silver: With the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting and the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the risk appetite significantly cooled down, and the decline of silver price significantly widened. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 415 yuan/kg. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with the cooling of risk appetite, the downward pressure on silver price increased [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes rose across the board; US bond yields fell collectively, the 10-year US bond yield fell 2.54 basis points to 4.306%; the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, the offshore RMB against the US dollar slightly depreciated to 7.1882; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The situation is similar to that of gold, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 36333 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11020 kilograms to 1149446 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are a series of economic data releases and events today, including China's LPR, the introduction of parade preparation work by the State Council Information Office, the final value of the Eurozone's July CPI, and intensive speeches by Fed members [4]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.84%, the short position decreased by 0.21%, and the net position decreased by 2.74% [29]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.18%, the short position decreased by 1.31%, and the net position increased by 0.26% [32]. - Gold ETF: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly [34]. - Silver ETF: The position of silver ETF decreased slightly, but it is still higher than that of the same period in the past two years [37]. - Warehouse receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are still at a high level [38][39][41].

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded above the 98 mark, closing up 0.31% at 98.12 [2][3] - Spot gold initially rose but then fell, reaching a high near 3360 before closing down 0.09% at 3332.67 USD/oz [2][3] - Spot silver closed up 0.09% at 38.00 USD/oz [2][3] Group 2 - Key developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, with Ukraine potentially securing US security guarantees through significant military purchases [3] - A breakthrough in the Middle East, with Hamas accepting a new ceasefire plan, further diminished the demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Signs of economic weakness in the US, such as a drop in the homebuilder confidence index to a two-and-a-half-year low, have reinforced expectations for monetary easing [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content Core Views of the Report - For rubber, supply remains stable, short - term rain affects new rubber release, cost support is strong, but downstream production control in late August may slow inventory reduction and limit price rebound, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - For coke, after six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The spot market is stable, and the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw material support weakens, downstream demand is for rigid replenishment, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4] - For rebar, with the approaching parade, blast furnace restrictions are uncertain. Supply and demand both decline, inventory accumulates, but there is still support below the futures price, and the focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [5] - For iron ore, supply is stable, demand is high, and the market is expected to oscillate as the fundamental situation is healthy [6] - For live pigs, supply exceeds demand in the short term, with weak price adjustments, and farmers can consider selling hedging [7] - For palm oil, domestic inventory is increasing, but due to bullish sentiment and pre - holiday demand, prices are expected to oscillate upward [7] - For soybean meal, downstream acceptance is low, but as inventory is consumed, prices are expected to rise, and the M01 contract is expected to oscillate widely with strong support below [8] - For soda ash, supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - For methanol, domestic production is rising, downstream demand is stable, inventory is accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - For polypropylene, supply is abundant, inventory is high, and the PP01 contract is expected to oscillate, with suggestions to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - For gold, geopolitical tensions may ease, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] - For silver, the market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] - For short - term treasury bonds, rising capital costs and the stock - bond seesaw effect are negative for the bond market, with a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] - For crude oil, supply expectations are raised, demand growth is lowered, and there is no short - term upward driving force, with an expected oscillatory downward trend [13] Summaries by Product Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices decline, with cup - lump down 0.35 baht/kg to 49.45 baht/kg, and latex remaining at 54.2 baht/kg. In Hainan, heavy rain disrupts tapping, and glue output is scarce. From January to July, China's rubber tire exports reach 563 tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [1] Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 45 yuan/ton, with different profitability in various regions. After six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing [2] Polyester Bottle - chips - In this trading cycle, the output is 32.27 tons, remaining flat. The average weekly profit is - 218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is in the peak season, with stable downstream industry operating rates [4] Rebar - On August 18, domestic steel prices fluctuate. The billet price in Tangshan drops by 20 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities drops by 14 yuan/ton [5] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14381.57 tons, an increase of 114.30 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 346.80 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons. Overseas mine shipments decline slightly, and port arrivals return to last year's level [6] Live Pigs - On August 18, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market is 20.20 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase from last Friday. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term [7] Palm Oil - As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week and a 5.96% increase from last year [7] Soybean Meal - In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreases by 4.24% to 680.4 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increases by 1.12% to 101.47 tons [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, with an oscillatory downward trend. The weekly output is 76.13 tons, a 2.24% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers is 189.38 tons, a 1.54% increase [9] Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu is 2302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. Production is rising, and downstream demand is stable [10] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawing - grade polypropylene is 7022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. Production is stable, supply is abundant, and inventory is high [11] Gold - Trump and Zelensky meet at the White House, with possible geopolitical easing, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] Silver - The market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On August 18, most money - market interest rates rise, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being negative for the bond market, and a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] Crude Oil - Trump hosts the Ukraine summit, and各方 support peace. The IEA raises supply expectations and lowers demand growth forecasts, with no short - term upward driving force [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - **Energy**: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].

换资前言： 四小时图上看，黄金整体震荡在前高之下，并且在这附近收取多根阴线，从4小时图更小周期中可以看 到上升动能衰竭的表现，短线交易者可以考虑进行空单博弈，另外，从走势来看，本周不排除早间冲高 回落，今日大概率延续先回落的走势，但仍需关注欧盘的时间点，依然是今天强弱分水岭。黄金1小时 均线还是继续死叉向下的空头排列，短线下跌还有动能，反弹很正常，如果黄金要反转，只有突破站稳 3350上方才有深V反转的可能，只要不有效突破3350，那么黄金在3350下都是逢高给空的机会。黄金短 期来说，还是要关注市场的避险情绪，如果市场避险情绪消退，那么黄金可能将继续打开新的下跌空 间。黄金早盘继续先空为主。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上金晟富建议反弹做空为主，回调做多 为辅，上方短期重点关注3350-3352一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3330-3310一线支撑，各位朋友一定要 跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前 来体验，交流实时行情，进群关注实时单。 2025下半年你打算拿什么去面对自己曾经许下的宏愿？我们最初踏入这个市场，都怀揣着赚钱的梦想， 然而，一次次的锁仓， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in residents' savings behavior [1] - In July, residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, suggesting a trend of residents moving their savings [1][3] - The rise in A-shares, surpassing key resistance levels, has encouraged investors, leading to a potential influx of funds from banks to the stock market [3][4] Group 2 - The current A-share market trend is stable, with lower volatility compared to previous years, which may attract more external funds back into the market [4] - Regulatory changes and a significant drop in IPOs this year have fostered a more favorable environment for the stock market, enhancing investor confidence [4] - The movement of residents' savings from banks to investments is seen as a positive development, potentially boosting consumer spending and corporate performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a significant interest rate cut in September has shifted to a reduction, leading to a short-term adjustment in gold prices, which are likely to remain within a consolidation range [1]. Market Performance - On August 14, gold opened at $3356.68 per ounce, reached a high of $3374.58, and then declined to a low of $3329.84, closing at $3335.26, with a daily fluctuation of $44.74 and a drop of $21.42, or 0.64% [3]. - The gold price is currently under pressure due to reduced favorable factors and a strengthening U.S. dollar index, which rebounded and recovered losses from earlier in the week [3]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases include July retail sales, industrial production, and initial consumer confidence index for August, which are generally expected to be favorable for gold prices [5]. - The U.S. July PPI increased by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in three years, indicating potential inflationary pressures that could affect future interest rate decisions [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - There is skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential for a significant rate cut in September, with officials expressing that a large cut may not be appropriate given current economic conditions [5]. - The market's expectation for a substantial rate cut has diminished due to the higher-than-expected PPI and comments from Fed officials, leading to a decrease in rate cut bets [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern until the September rate meeting, with a focus on the 100-day moving average as a support level [6]. - The weekly chart indicates a potential risk of a decline towards the 30-week moving average or around $3200, despite an overall upward trend [8]. - Daily analysis shows that gold has fallen below the 60-day moving average, with increased bearish momentum, while the focus remains on resistance levels around $3356 and $3373 [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, alongside expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Spot gold is trading around $3,360 per ounce, while December futures rose by 0.3% to $3,408.3 per ounce, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing price increases [1] - The decline in the dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, stimulating physical gold demand, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices reflects both risk aversion and changes in macroeconomic expectations, with soft inflation data suggesting the Fed may not need to maintain a tight stance [3] - Key factors that could influence gold prices include the Fed's guidance post-September rate cut and global economic uncertainties, which could affect safe-haven demand [3][4] - Short-term, gold bulls are in control, but there is an increasing risk of price volatility at high levels, especially if the dollar rebounds or bond yields rise [4]