Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, indicating a release of liquidity but uncertainty about future rate cuts due to mixed economic data [1] - Current U.S. economic indicators show "moderate inflation decline and weakening employment momentum," with fluctuating prices of essential goods affecting inflation stability [1] - The ongoing budget negotiations and partial government shutdown have increased fiscal uncertainty, amplifying market volatility and leading to heightened interest in defensive assets like gold and bonds [1] Group 2 - In response to a complex external environment, multiple central banks are strengthening regional financial cooperation through tools like currency swap agreements and cross-border liquidity arrangements [2] - There is a frequent flow of funds between safe-haven and risk assets, with institutional investors adopting defensive strategies and increasing allocations to options and hedging tools to prepare for potential market volatility [2] - The current global market dynamics are driven by two main themes: central banks recalibrating policies amid inflation and employment challenges, and rising demand for safe-haven assets due to fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties [2]

Market Overview - Gold prices are trading around $3984 per ounce, having approached $4020 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand [1][5] - U.S. crude oil is trading at approximately $59.72 per barrel, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive month due to oversupply and weak demand [1][9] Economic Indicators - China's October trade balance in RMB is reported at 6454.7 billion, with imports and exports showing year-on-year changes of 7.5% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of deterioration, with a 183.1% increase in announced layoffs in October, marking the highest figure for that month in over 20 years [4] Commodity Market - The U.S. government has added uranium, copper, and silver to its critical minerals list, indicating a focus on domestic supply for national security and infrastructure development [7][15] - Analysts predict gold prices could reach between $4300 and $4400 per ounce by year-end due to ongoing uncertainties [7] Stock Market - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Nasdaq down 1.90%, driven by high valuations and economic uncertainty [4] - Despite strong earnings reports, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, concerns about the economic outlook persist [4] Oil Market - International oil prices continue to decline, with Brent crude at $63.38 and U.S. crude at $59.43, facing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [9][11] - U.S. oil inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on prices [11] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.42% to 99.70, influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][14]

Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the US pausing sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and initiating a public consultation process to suspend tariff increases for one year, are seen as significant progress in bilateral relations, boosting market confidence [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, following a period of market pressure due to corrections in the technology and AI sectors [1] - The latest employment data indicates signs of economic cooling, with October layoffs exceeding 153,000, marking the highest level in over 20 years, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% the previous week, which has contributed to a positive sentiment in the stock market and provided solid support for gold [1] - Despite an increase in risk appetite, safe-haven sentiment has not completely dissipated due to concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown, which has lasted over five weeks, potentially impacting the economy [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of presidential tariff powers have heightened policy uncertainty, leading to a resurgence of safe-haven sentiment that supports gold prices [1] Group 3 - Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized above $4,000 but failed to break the overnight high, with market volatility increasing due to the divergence between the dollar's rebound and rate cut expectations [2] - Technically, if gold prices break through the resistance zone of $4,020–$4,030, they may further test the $4,045–$4,050 range and approach the $4,100 mark; conversely, a drop below the support zone of $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market remains in a pattern of intertwining policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment, with gold supported by both rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, maintaining its position above $4,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas equity and bond markets in response to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, opting to lock in profits from previous market gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - For the week ending November 1, Japanese investors net sold 581.1 billion yen (approximately 3.85 billion USD) in foreign stocks, marking the largest weekly sell-off since October 4 [1] - Additionally, they reduced holdings in long-term foreign bonds by 354.4 billion yen and short-term bonds by 798.7 billion yen, indicating a cautious stance towards overseas fixed-income assets [1][5] - The MSCI World Index has declined by 1.6% this week, poised for its first weekly drop in four weeks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, emphasizing a balanced labor market and sustained inflation above the 2% target, dampened expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] - This shift in sentiment has prompted Japanese investors to reassess the risk-reward profile of their overseas asset allocations [3] Group 3: Contrasting Trends - In contrast to the sell-off in foreign assets, foreign investors have net bought Japanese stocks for the fifth consecutive week, purchasing approximately 690.1 billion yen in local shares, reflecting ongoing confidence in the Japanese market [5] - Despite this, the Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of about 5% this week, with significant losses in technology stocks, highlighting the global market's impact on Japan [5] - Japanese long-term bonds experienced a net inflow of approximately 280.6 billion yen after two weeks of foreign capital outflow, while foreign investors also acquired short-term debt instruments valued at 1.83 trillion yen, indicating a preference for yen-denominated assets [5]

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

周五亚洲交易时段，黄金保持坚挺，现交投于3990至4000美元区间。随着美国政府停摆进入第六周，市 场对经济放缓的忧虑升温。Challenger数据显示，10月裁员人数超过15万人，创二十年来新高，强化了 市场对美联储12月降息的押注。分析人士指出，降息预期降低了黄金的持有成本，吸引力因此增强。 Zaner Metals策略师Peter Grant表示："财政和政治不确定性升温，使避险买盘重新成为市场主导力 量。"交易员将密切关注北京时间今晚公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以判断美国消费端动能是否 进一步减弱。 当前市场依旧由避险与流动性主导，若密歇根大学消费者信心数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的 预期或将进一步增强，从而支撑黄金维持高位震荡。总体来看，短线仍可保持逢低布局思路，但需关注 美联储官员讲话可能引发的短期波动。 整体而言，避险情绪支撑黄金在高位运行，短线支撑关注3990美元，关键压力位仍在4000美元关口。美 元在通胀风险与降息预期的拉扯中反弹受限，原油则在供需与地缘因素交织下震荡整理。未来，市场焦 点将转向密歇根大学消费者信心数据及美联储官员威廉姆斯、杰斐逊与米兰的讲话，以寻找政策基调的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, becoming the longest in U.S. history, raising concerns about its potential impact on Q4 economic growth [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could lead to a GDP decline of 1% to 2%, exacerbating worries about short-term economic slowdown [1] - Despite the shutdown, U.S. economic data remains robust, with October ADP employment increasing by 42,000, surpassing the expected 25,000, and ISM services PMI rising to 52.4, the highest in eight months [1] Group 2 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to rebound, breaking the $4,000 mark, driven by safe-haven inflows due to the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and escalating Ukraine situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance remains a significant resistance for gold bulls, as market expectations for another rate cut in December diminish, potentially limiting gold's upside [1] - Technical analysis indicates short-term resistance for gold at $4,025 to $4,030, with potential extension targets of $4,075 to $4,100, while support is around $3,970, with a drop below that possibly leading to a retreat to the $3,910 to $3,900 range [1] Group 3 - In the forex market, investors are focused on the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision, with expectations that the BoE will maintain the policy rate at 4% during the November meeting [2] - The British pound stabilized around 1.3050 after a brief rebound, while the euro/dollar pair ended a five-day decline, consolidating above 1.1500 [2] - Overall risk sentiment is showing a mild recovery, providing some support for non-U.S. currencies, while the market awaits new guidance amid the interplay of risk aversion and hawkish policy expectations [2]

来源：市场资讯 11月6日，昨日黄金呈现震荡整理走势。亚盘开盘后金价展开反弹，最高触及3980美元上方后承压回 落，但下行幅度有限，在3950美元上方获得支撑后再度收复失地。随后价格基本维持在3980美元附近窄 幅波动，最终收于3978美元，日线录得一根小阳线。 周四（11月6日）美国联邦政府停摆已进入第36天，刷新了自1879年以来的最长停摆纪录。持续的僵局 可能导致全美航空系统自本周五起削减10%的计划航班，进一步加剧经济混乱，推升市场避险情绪。此 外，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性提出质疑。若相关关税政策被推翻，美国财 政赤字可能急剧扩大，进而增强黄金的避险吸引力。 然而，另一方面，美国ADP就业数据强于市场预期，ISM非制造业PMI也表现强劲，这些因素导致市场 对美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。美元指数刷新近五个月高点，限制了黄金的上涨动能。整体来 看，黄金的避险属性与强势美元及降息预期降温形成多空拉锯，市场情绪趋于谨慎。建议各位投资者在 操作上保持稳健，合理控制仓位。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金主体结构是走震荡路线的，短线结构重心略被上抬，导致隔夜走势区间进一步 缩窄，今日行情异动的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is relatively strong, with the ADP employment data exceeding expectations, but there are still uncertainties in the employment market and inflation pressure remains. The US government shutdown has reached a record - long 36 days, which has an impact on the stock market and other fields. The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with short - term expected to be weak in shock and long - term still having value for bottom - fishing layout. The bond market may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern. Different commodity prices show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached a new eight - month high, and the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but some service industries continued to lay off workers. The US government shutdown lasted for 36 days, the longest on record. The strong economic and earnings data boosted market risk appetite, the US stock market rebounded, the US dollar index fluctuated above 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, the gold and copper prices closed up, and the oil price closed down by more than 1% to a two - week low [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened low and closed high, with most major indexes rising. The trading volume shrank to 1.89 trillion. The micro - cap and ChiNext sectors were dominant, while the Shanghai 50 and Beixin 50 were weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weak in shock, and in the long term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and focus on fundamentals again, and may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious metal futures prices rebounded on Wednesday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. Although the US ADP employment data exceeded expectations, the investment risk - aversion sentiment still drove the prices of gold and silver up. The short - term rebound space of gold and silver prices is expected to be limited, and they are still in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, and LME copper rebounded at night. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks at low prices. The overall employment market in the US is still weak, and there are still uncertainties in the economy. Codelco said that its production in 2025 - 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2024. It is expected that the copper price will stabilize and rebound after stopping falling [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.4%, and LME aluminum closed down 0.7%. The ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data in the US were strong, which cooled the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December. The overseas supply was disturbed, and the domestic supply of aluminum ingots increased slightly. The consumption season is shifting to the off - season, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed down 0.11%. The supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. The supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The US ADP employment data was higher than expected, but far lower than the historical average. The zinc ingot export window is open, and the inventory is expected to decline. The short - term macro situation is stable, and the zinc price is slightly adjusted, but there is support below the price [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. The environmental protection control still causes a regional supply shortage, and the demand of battery enterprises is expected to pick up, but the supply shortage is expected to improve as more refineries resume production. The short - term fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The fundamentals have few new contradictions, and the raw material improvement is limited. The decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the US government shutdown have put pressure on the tin price in the short term, but it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall before the low inventory at home and abroad significantly rebounds [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side decreased marginally, and the demand side had mixed performance. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week. The industrial silicon spot price stabilized and rebounded, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated, and the spot price fell. The production capacity of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. increased. The trading enthusiasm of the spot market was average, and both long and short sides have bargaining chips. The lithium price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. The US ADP employment data and service industry PMI data were released, and the legal debate on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" was held. The US dollar put pressure on the nickel price, but the current nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and the cost support is still there. The nickel price is expected to have limited decline space, and a callback of the US dollar index may boost the nickel price [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated strongly, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Some soda ash and glass production enterprises have maintenance plans. The demand for soda ash may decline due to the concentrated maintenance of glass factories. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will stop falling and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the convergence of the cross - variety price difference [20][21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The demand for steel is weak, the supply is high, and the inventory pressure remains. The steel price is expected to be weak [22][23]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures fell. Due to the weak demand for steel and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the iron ore demand is weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be weak [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The 2025/26 annual soybean production in Argentina is expected to be 4,740 tons. The Chinese government will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US soybeans and retain the 10% additional tariff. The import cost supports the prices of bean and rapeseed meal, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The MPOA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons. The supply of palm oil is expected to be loose, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27][28].