Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, influenced by economic data and political pressures surrounding Chairman Powell [1][3][21]. Economic Data - Recent economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significant downward revision of non-farm employment data, suggest a weakening labor market, paving the way for a potential rate cut [2][5]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating job market [2]. Predictions on Rate Cuts - Various financial institutions have adjusted their predictions for the Fed's rate cut, with Standard Chartered now forecasting a 50 basis point cut, citing a rapid shift in the labor market from robust to weak [5][6]. - In contrast, firms like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank believe that the August employment report does not justify a 50 basis point cut in a single meeting, although they acknowledge the possibility of consecutive cuts [5][6]. Political Influences - Chairman Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance has raised concerns about the influence of political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which has been vocal about the need for significant rate cuts [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that a 50 basis point cut could be seen as a political statement of loyalty to Trump, rather than purely an economic decision [10][11]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction since 1987, it has been followed by an economic recession [12][13]. - The potential for a 50 basis point cut raises alarms among market participants, who fear it may signal severe economic distress [13][20]. Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 10% chance for a 50 basis point cut, reflecting uncertainty and divided opinions among investors [7]. - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for global financial markets, influencing stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets [21].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 52,950 kilograms, with an increase of 2,799 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The opening price of gold futures on September 12 was 829.52 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 835.28 yuan and a low of 826.64 yuan, with a current price of 834.22 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 170,217 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 5,156 contracts to 109,267 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased to below 90%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has increased to above 10% [1] - A weaker U.S. dollar is noted, as rate cuts typically reduce the dollar's attractiveness, thereby supporting gold prices by lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has filed an emergency application to a federal appeals court to overturn a lower court's ruling regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could impact the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - President Trump announced the dismissal of Cook on August 25, citing alleged mortgage loan fraud, which Cook denies and subsequently filed a lawsuit against [2]. - A federal district court judge temporarily blocked Cook's dismissal on September 9, leading the Justice Department to request a ruling from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals by September 15, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [2][3]. - The judge indicated that the legal basis for the President to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor should be interpreted as requiring misconduct during their tenure, while the alleged fraud occurred before Cook's confirmation [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut during its meeting on September 16-17, with a general consensus predicting a 25 basis point reduction, although Trump desires a 50 basis point cut [4]. - If the Justice Department's appeal is successful, Cook would be unable to attend the upcoming monetary policy meeting, which could influence the decision-making process [4]. - Trump's nominee, Stephen Moore, is positioned to replace the resigned Adrianne Kugler as a Federal Reserve governor, pending Senate approval, which could further affect the Fed's policy direction [4].

Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1% to 3.1%, marking a six-month high[2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, with the dollar index remaining in a weak adjustment zone[2] - The conflicting data of strong inflation and weak employment may complicate the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path[3] Core CPI and Contributing Factors - The core CPI's 0.35% month-on-month increase in August is the highest in seven months, driven by accelerated tariff transmission and rising rents[3] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices[3] Future Economic Outlook - The sustainability of inflationary pressures is likely, with ongoing tariff impacts and stable wage growth contributing to core inflation[3] - The potential effects of a new tax cut plan on consumer demand and labor market dynamics could influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Current conditions suggest a favorable window for monetary policy easing, with a potential 10 basis point rate cut to stabilize the real estate market[4] - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts falling short of market expectations, which could constrain domestic monetary easing[4]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank's upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 18 faces a complex decision-making environment due to a disconnect between recent economic data and policy signals [1] - Norway's inflation rate remains above the central bank's target of 2%, and wage growth expectations for 2025 have exceeded the previous forecast of 4.5%, indicating an accelerating economic expansion [1] - The current policy interest rate of 4.25% is not considered "overly tight" and aligns with the current economic conditions, suggesting that concerns about "overly tight" policy may lack basis [1] Group 2 - The Norwegian krone has appreciated by 3.65% against the euro since early August and has risen 5.5% since April, which typically has a dampening effect on inflation [1] - However, the effects of currency appreciation have not yet fully manifested in price data, indicating that exchange rate movements alone do not provide sufficient justification for a rate cut [1] - Market participants believe that the central bank's core policy dilemma lies in balancing persistent inflation pressures with the potential deflationary effects of the krone's appreciation, leading to a preference for maintaining a hawkish stance and delaying rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to an annual rate of 17.00%, which is less than the expected 200 basis points reduction [2][4] - The decision comes amid a slowing economy, with growth in the first seven months of 2025 close to the lower end of the Central Bank's forecast range of 1% to 2% [4][9] - Industrial output growth in July was only 0.7%, significantly below June's 2% and about half of economists' expectations [4][9] Group 2 - The Central Bank stated that underlying inflation indicators have not changed significantly, and it will maintain tight monetary conditions to ensure inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [4][8] - Inflation expectations remain high, influenced by rising fuel prices and a weakening ruble, which pose challenges for further monetary easing [7][10] - The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 24, 2025, where further interest rate decisions will be made based on inflation trends [8][10] Group 3 - Economic activity is showing signs of slowing, with mixed performance across sectors; export-oriented industries are experiencing a notable downturn [9][10] - Despite a tightening labor market, consumer spending has slightly increased, supported by rising household incomes and government spending [9] - Credit activity has improved recently, with significant acceleration in corporate loan growth and some recovery in retail lending [9]

科布9日指出，总统解雇美联储理事的法律依据应被解读为该理事"在职期间存在不当行为"，而库克被 指的住房抵押贷款欺诈发生于她的美联储理事提名2022年获参议院确认之前。科布还指出，作出倾向于 库克的裁决，是因为公众希望美联储不受政治压力的影响。 不过据美联社报道，司法部11日提出紧急申请时强调，即便欺诈发生于库克就职美联储理事前，这一行 为"无可争议地让人质疑库克的可信度，以及她是否能成为负责任的利率与经济管理者"。 库克一方则指认特朗普政府让她走人是因为不满她的货币政策立场，所谓"贷款欺诈"只是借口。 新华财经北京9月12日电美国政府11日向一家联邦上诉法院提出紧急申请，要求该法院在下周美联储货 币政策会议前推翻下级法院就美联储理事莉萨·库克一案所作的裁决，从而使美国总统特朗普能够解雇 库克。 在议息前裁决 特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职务。库克否认有任何不当行为，并于8月28 日就特朗普将其解职一事提起诉讼。美国华盛顿特区联邦地区法院法官吉亚·科布本月9日作出裁决，暂 时阻止库克遭解职。 据美国《纽约时报》和消费者新闻与商业频道等媒体11日报道，美国司法部当天申请哥伦比亚特区巡回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00%, which is less than the expected 200 basis points reduction, amid concerns of economic slowdown and inflation control [4][6][12]. Economic Conditions - The Russian economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with growth in the first seven months of 2025 nearing the lower end of the Central Bank's forecast of 1% to 2% [4][6]. - Industrial output growth in July was only 0.7%, down from 2% in June, and about half of economists' expected growth rate [4][6]. - The Central Bank's statement indicates that inflation expectations remain high, and the underlying measures of price growth have not changed significantly [12][14]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank aims to maintain tight monetary conditions to ensure inflation returns to target levels by 2026, despite the recent rate cut [4][12]. - The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 24, 2025, where further decisions will be based on inflation trends and expectations [11]. Inflation and Risks - Current inflation is reported at 8.2% as of September 8, 2025, with core inflation indicators averaging between 4% and 6% [12][14]. - The Central Bank has highlighted that the risks of inflation rising are greater than those of it falling, influenced by high inflation expectations and deteriorating external trade conditions [10][14]. - Budget risks, including potential increases in government spending and deficit targets, will also impact future monetary policy decisions [10][14]. Banking Sector Insights - The head of Sberbank described the current economic situation as a "technical stagnation," suggesting that interest rates need to drop to 12% or lower for economic recovery [7]. - Despite high borrowing costs, there are mixed views among officials regarding the severity of the economic situation, with some indicating no significant deterioration in the economy [7][8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] 2) Core View of the Report - After the US announced that the August CPI annual rate of 2.9% and the core CPI annual rate of 3.1% were in line with market expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level in 4 years, far higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value, further verifying the weak employment situation. The market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Precious metals may remain strong before this month's meeting, and long positions should be held, but there is a risk of increased volatility after continuous rises [1] 3) Other Key Points - The European Central Bank announced that the eurozone's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively. The inflation rate has reached the 2% medium - term target, and price pressures in the eurozone continue to ease. The eurozone economy shows resilience in a complex global environment, but external uncertainties, especially trade disputes, are significant [2] - On September 11 local time, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Israel's attack on Qatar on the 9th. Qatar will not tolerate any infringement of its sovereignty and national security, and reserves the right to respond in accordance with international law. Qatar prioritizes mediating a cease - fire between Palestine and Israel while retaining the right to retaliate [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93.9%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 6.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by October is 7.6%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6% [3]