Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump could lead to a more aggressive monetary policy, impacting market dynamics significantly [1][2][4]. Group 1: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Hassett's approach may shift the Fed from a "data-dependent" model to a "demand-driven" model, potentially resulting in earlier and larger interest rate cuts than currently anticipated [3][5]. - Market expectations are already adjusting to the possibility of "larger and faster rate cuts," with significant implications for interest-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Valuations - If Hassett is appointed, there may be a notable increase in stock and gold prices due to anticipated liquidity easing, while bank stocks could face pressure from narrowing interest margins [2][4]. - The potential for a "Christmas rally" in the stock market is suggested if Hassett is officially nominated before the holiday season [4]. Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Analysts express concerns that Hassett's close ties to the Trump administration could politicize monetary policy, undermining the Fed's independence and potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation fears [5][6]. - The market may react negatively to perceived loss of Fed independence, impacting the valuation of U.S. dollar assets, with short-term bonds and gold likely benefiting [5][6]. Group 4: Uncertainty During Transition Period - The transition period between Powell and Hassett may create confusion in market expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to increased volatility in the short term [7].

在英国央行预期偏鸽的背景下，英镑兑主要货币承压。 英国首相斯塔默寻求降息以提振经济，英国央行行长格林表示若就业和消费进一步下滑将支持降息。 美国ISM制造业PMI数据疲软，显示需求环境疲软。 周二英镑兑主要货币小幅走低，英国首相基尔·斯塔默强调需降低通胀和利率以提振企业投资和经济增长。 据路透社报道，斯塔默周一在记者会上表示："促进经济增长、扶持企业最关键的举措，首先是降低通胀以推动利率进一步下调，从而降低企业投资成本。" 斯塔默发表上述言论时，同时赞扬了财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯上周公布的秋季预算案。该预算案计划到2029-30财年增税260亿英镑以填补财政缺口。 英国利率走低的预期对英镑构成利空。 与此同时，鉴于就业市场疲软及通胀增速放缓，交易员普遍预期英国央行将在本月货币政策会议上降息。 与市场普遍的鸽派预期相反，政策制定者梅根·格林周一表示，她仅在劳动力市场和消费进一步恶化时才会支持降息。 市场动态：英镑兑美元震荡整理 周二欧洲时段，英镑兑美元汇率在1.3220附近横盘整理。尽管美国11月ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）疲软，美元周一反弹后转为横盘整理，英镑兑美 元汇率随之震荡。 截至发稿时，追踪美元兑 ...

美国彭博新闻社2日报道，除日本国债外，美国公司债发行量激增，同样与美国国债争夺投资者。报道 分析，美国企业债发行量增加，部分归因于美国联邦储备委员会降息。 报道说，交易员预期美联储下周再次降息的概率为80%，将是今年第三次降息。美国总统特朗普11月30 日说，他已敲定下任美联储主席人选，但未透露是谁。特朗普多次抱怨现任美联储主席鲍威尔降息力度 不够。鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任。（完）（卜晓明） 此前，日本央行行长植田和男暗示12月晚些时候可能加息。《华尔街日报》评论，这让投资者感到意 外，他们原以为，在日本政府可能对央行施压的情况下，日本央行可能暂不加息。据美国道琼斯公司市 场数据部，植田和男的言论推动日本国债收益率上涨。其中，10年期日本国债收益率1日报收于约 1.859%，创2008年6月以来最高收盘水平。 国债收益率在确定消费者和企业借贷成本方面发挥关键作用。美国华尔街一些人士担心，日债收益率上 升会把资金从美国金融市场中抽走，并引发美债收益率攀升。 据美国财政部数据，日本是美国政府最大外国债权人；截至9月，日本持有价值约1.2万亿美元美国国 债。近年来，日本私人投资者向美国和其他外国债券投资数千亿美元，寻 ...

12月2日，日本央行行长植田和男周一表示，央行将权衡加息利弊并做出适当决策。他在名古屋指出， 实现央行经济前景的可能性正在上升，且即便政策利率上调，金融环境仍将保持宽松。这相当于"松开 油门"而非"踩下刹车"。他说，央行在加息时机的选择上必须不早不晚，以确保通胀顺利实现2%的目 标。植田和男称："推迟加息太久可能会导致严重的通货膨胀，迫使我们快速调整政策。我希望在我们 将利率提高至0.75%后，再进一步阐述未来加息路径。"植田对美国关税的经济影响持乐观态度，称企 业利润仍处于高位，国内增长前景的不确定性正在减小。随着关税影响担忧的消退，央行经济和物价预 测得以实现的可能性正在增加，植田表示，这暗示着加息的条件正在逐步具备。 另外，周一，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月工厂活动萎缩幅度创四个月最大， 新订单走弱，显示制造商仍难摆脱长期低迷。美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数48.2，不及预期的49，前值 为48.7。50为荣枯分界线。该指数已连续九个月低于50的荣枯线，意味着制造业持续收缩。今年的大部 分时间里，美国ISM制造业PMI都维持在一个较窄的区间内。ISM制造业商业调查委员会主席Su ...

Macro News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, marking nine consecutive months of contraction, with new orders declining at the fastest pace since July and factory employment continuing to shrink [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, suggesting a normalization of rates to around 0.75% if wage and inflation momentum continues, indicating a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy rather than a tightening [1] Institutional Perspectives - The strong signal from the Bank of Japan's Governor regarding a December rate hike may lead to adjustments in asset prices globally, potentially impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] - Weak economic and employment data from the US, combined with some Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December, has increased expectations for a rate cut by the Fed [1] - Fiscal easing policies have been introduced by Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK, contributing to expectations of rising global debt and fiscal deficits [1] - Central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, with the one-month borrowing rate for London silver exceeding 5%, while geopolitical risks in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]

黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价稳步上行。伦敦现货黄金收于4，219美元/盎司（周环比3.8%），国内AU9999黄金收于948元/ 克（周环比2.3%）。 上周公布的美国零售不及预期。美国9月零售销售环比0.2%，低于预期0.4%和前值0.6%，表明就业市场 的疲软逐步蔓延至消费领域，对降息形成支撑。 近期多位联储官员公开支持降息。上周联储理事沃勒、米兰和旧金山联储主席戴利均表态呼吁降息，均 认为就业恶化的风险高于通胀反弹风险，关税对通胀的影响有限且一次性。美联储12月10日将公布最新 的利率决议，本周美联储将进入议息会议前的噤声期。当前利率期货显示，市场预期12月降息25bp的概 率达87%，相较此前进一步上升。 展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周期，且特朗普可能在圣诞节前公布新任美联储主席人选，若鸽派主席 任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进，有望利好黄金。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付 息压力下的信用风险延续，全球央行持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好 黄金中长期配置价值。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价稳步上行。伦敦现货黄金收于4，21 ...

上周，当哈塞特成为热门人选的消息传出后，长期利率出现下降，这被视为他能够获得市场信任的证据。哈塞特本人周日在CBS节目中表示，这一市场 反应证明他能够在不牺牲通胀可信度的情况下实现特朗普要求的降息目标。 忠诚度成为决定性因素 Timiraos表示，哈塞特因与总统的密切关系而占据优势，这是其他竞争者无法比拟的。他曾在2017年至2019年担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，2020年 新冠疫情爆发后短暂回归担任高级顾问，今年1月特朗普重返白宫后出任国家经济委员会主任。 周二，据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普总统似乎已倾向于选择 长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。此次任命可能成为特朗普第二任期最重要的人事决策。 Timiraos表示，特朗普周日告诉记者"我知道我要选谁"，当被问及是否是哈塞特时，他只是笑而不语。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特满足了总统的两 个关键标准：忠诚度，以及在市场中的公信力。 Timiraos表示，特朗普周日告诉记者"我知道我要选谁"，当被问及是否是哈塞特时，他只是笑而不语。白宫国家经济委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's inclination to appoint Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could be a significant personnel decision for his second term [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Trump has indicated he knows who he wants to select for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with Hassett being a strong candidate due to his loyalty and credibility in the market [2][3]. - The selection process has narrowed down from 11 candidates to 5, with Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rieder as the finalists [4]. - The final candidates are set to meet with Vice President JD Vance and other White House staff, with an announcement expected before Christmas [5]. Group 2: Hassett's Qualifications and Controversies - Hassett's close relationship with Trump gives him an advantage over other candidates, having previously served as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and currently as the Director of the National Economic Council [3][6]. - Despite his qualifications as an economist and his previous bipartisan confirmation, there are concerns among former colleagues regarding his temperament and willingness to challenge Trump when necessary [6][7]. - Hassett has previously defended the independence of the Federal Reserve but has recently criticized it alongside Trump, which has raised eyebrows among policymakers [7].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普周日表示，他已确定下任美联储主席的人选。海外市场消息显示，目前，白宫 国家经济委员会主任、特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特最可能成为下一任美联储主席。 分析人士表示，作为特朗普制定经济政策的左膀右臂之一，哈塞特若当选，可能会更加积极地推动降 息，把美联储政策利率从目前的3.75–4.0%降至3.0%以下。 美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期，新主席的遴选工作已经进入尾声。除哈塞特 外，其他候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，前美联储理事凯文·沃什。此前，沃勒当选的呼声较 高，但11月底以来，哈塞特胜出的概率大幅上升。截至北京时间周二11：30，美国预测网站Polymarket 的数据显示，哈塞特当选概率为66%，沃勒则降至4%。 美联储主席由总统提名，同时需要参议院确认，任期4年。按照往常的惯例，下一任主席人选应该在今 年冬季公布。据负责新主席遴选工作的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特透露，特朗普很可能在圣诞节前正 式宣布提名结果。 上周，彭博社、路透社等多家媒体称哈塞特深受特朗普信任，是接替鲍威尔的热门人选。哈塞特周日在 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating continued contraction [1][2] - The new orders index fell to 47.4, reflecting reduced demand due to tariffs increasing prices of certain goods [2] - Manufacturing employment has contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - Tariffs have led to increased production costs, with the prices index rising from 58.0 in October to 58.5 in November, further suppressing demand [2] - Some manufacturers are linking layoffs to the broad tariff policies implemented by President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments in response to the current tariff environment [2][3] - The chemical products sector has reported that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, there is speculation about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in December [4][5] - Recent data shows that initial jobless claims have risen to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [4] - Economic analysts predict that further rate cuts may occur in 2026, with the terminal rate expected to fall to the range of 3.00%-3.25% [5]