Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of aligning with the central economic work conference spirit and integrating it with the Party's 20th National Congress and subsequent plenary sessions [2] - The bank aims to implement the eight key tasks for economic work in 2024, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strength, and promoting high-quality development [2] - The bank will enhance its capacity to serve national construction, prevent financial risks, and participate in international competition [2] Group 2 - The focus will be on improving service quality for the real economy, optimizing financial supply in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and medium enterprises [3] - The bank plans to accelerate the upgrade of its product service system and support effective investment to strengthen domestic circulation [3] - There will be a commitment to enhancing financial services in rural areas and promoting urban-rural integration and regional connectivity [3]

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is the top priority for the next year, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment to sustain economic growth [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - Domestic demand has remained stable overall, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [1] - Recent months have seen a slowdown in consumption and investment growth, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand [1] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Consumption is expected to see a slight recovery in 2025, with a moderate growth trend anticipated to continue into 2026 [1] - The core characteristic of this new normal is a slower overall demand growth, but rational consumption and an upward shift in demand levels are driving structural differentiation, which will become a significant growth driver in niche markets [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors may consider the Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338), which is compiled using an internationally recognized "industry balance" method [1] - As of the 2025 mid-year report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF ranks first among its peers, being more than three times that of the second place [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall economic situation shows a mixed picture. The external demand has improved, and prices have generally increased, but domestic demand is still bottom - seeking. Policies are expected to be more active in 2026 to support economic recovery, and the bond market is expected to have opportunities. Multiple institutions are optimistic about the continued rebound of Chinese assets in 2026 [24][25][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the 4.6% of the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to previous periods [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 was not provided, with previous values of 24,885 billion yuan and 8,161 billion yuan, and the same - period value last year of 23,288 billion yuan [1]. - CPI in November 2025 increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to November 2025 had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 2.6%, and the social consumer goods retail total had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [1]. - Exports in November 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In 2026, expanding domestic demand is the top priority, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. The real estate market will be stabilized from both supply and demand ends [2]. - Anti - dumping duties of 4.9% - 19.8% will be imposed on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU starting from December 17, 2025, for a period of 5 years [2]. - On December 16, 2025, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 25 had negative basis [2]. Metals - Copper prices soared to a record high, partly due to the large - scale copper hoarding by the US. The LME's three - month copper price reached a high of $11,952 per ton last Friday, currently around $11,626 per ton, up about 33% this year [4]. - On December 15, 2025, zinc, lead, tin, and copper inventories reached new highs, while nickel and aluminum inventories decreased [5]. - Morgan Stanley expects nickel prices to rebound to around $15,500 per ton in 2026 [5]. - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 from $10,650 to $11,400 per ton, and there is a 55% probability that the Trump administration will announce a 15% copper import tariff in the first half of 2026, which may take effect in 2027 and increase to 30% in 2028 [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A series of measures to rectify the "involution - style" competition in the steel industry are being implemented, and the upstream coke and iron ore prices have declined [7]. - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses, including Jiangte Motor's Yifeng County Shiziling Lithium - bearing Porcelain Stone Mine [7]. - Rio Tinto will launch the first phase of a project in Western Australia, with an estimated iron ore production of 50 million tons per year by 2030 [8]. - Japan will cooperate with Malaysia in the exploration and development of rare earth and other mineral resources [8]. - In November 2025, Brazilian steel sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.748 million tons. It is expected that in 2026, exports will decrease by 0.6% to 10.18 million tons, and imports will increase by 3.9% to 6.65 million tons [8]. - As of early December 2025, the prices of coke and coking coal in the circulation field declined [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will strengthen energy supervision and ensure the safety of the energy and power system in 2026 [9]. - Hungary signed a 5 - year LNG procurement agreement with Chevron for a total of 2 billion cubic meters [9]. - Last week, US API crude oil inventories decreased by 9.322 million barrels, exceeding expectations [9]. - The price discount of Venezuelan Merey crude oil widened to a $21 - per - barrel discount compared to Brent crude oil [9]. - JP Morgan will seek about $14 billion in funds for Argentina's LNG export project [9]. Agricultural Products - The Indian market regulatory body will propose to relax commodity derivatives rules, cancel the ban on agricultural product derivatives trading, and reduce margin requirements [10]. - As of December 14, 2025, EU's 2025/26 soft wheat exports were 10.5 million tons, barley exports were 5 million tons, corn imports were 7.5 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 8.3 million tons [10]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 16, 2025, the central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 18 billion yuan [11]. Key News - In 2026, expanding domestic demand is the top priority, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. The real estate market will be stabilized from both supply and demand ends [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to stabilize bulk consumption, improve the social security system, and promote a fair market order [12]. - Shenzhen will prevent and resolve financial risks, support the reform of the GEM, and enhance the competitiveness of the capital market [13]. - In 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and maintain financial market stability [13]. - The market expects the fiscal deficit rate in 2026 to be no less than 4% [14]. - BofA Securities expects the downward trend of the mainland real estate market to bottom out in 2026 [14]. - Vanke will hold a bondholder meeting to discuss the adjusted extension plan for "22 Vanke MTN004" [14]. - On December 16, 2025, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar reached new highs in 14 months, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026 [15]. - As of December 16, 2025, commercial banks issued 58 green financial bonds, with a total issuance scale of 458.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 202% [15]. - The EU plans to issue about 90 billion euros in bonds in the first half of 2026 [15]. - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting a 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 [16]. - In November 2025, the US added 64,000 non - farm jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [16]. Bond Market Review - Bond market sentiment improved slightly. Yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds mostly declined slightly, and Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend [19]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index rose 0.58%, while the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index fell 0.06% [19]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.72% to 478.64 points, with a trading volume of 55.556 billion yuan [20]. - On December 16, 2025, most money market interest rates rose, and Shibor short - term varieties showed a differentiated performance [20][21]. - Inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds generally declined, and silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds showed a differentiated performance [21]. - The winning yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 2 - year financial bonds were 1.5899% and 1.6039% respectively [22]. - Most European and US bond yields declined [22]. Foreign Exchange Market - On December 16, 2025, the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 80 points, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar rose 54 points [23]. - In New York, the US dollar index fell 0.06%, and most non - US currencies showed mixed performance [23]. Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that in November 2025, external demand improved, prices rose, but domestic demand continued to bottom - seek. It is recommended to wait for opportunities in the bond market [24]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that in November 2025, the economy was weak in both production and demand. The bond market is expected to stabilize and start a trend - like market in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [25]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the November 2025 economic data was below expectations, and the bond market is expected to perform well in 2026. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [25]. - CITIC Securities believes that the November 2025 economic data declined in both supply and demand. Policies in 2026 will be more coordinated and focused on implementation effects [26]. - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that the net investment of repurchase in December 2025 decreased. The money market may face some fluctuations due to tax payments [26]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that credit bond ETFs should focus on product returns and consider individual bond attributes in portfolio selection [27]. 4. Stock Market Key News - On the day, the A - share market declined unilaterally, with nearly 4,300 stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11% to 3,824.81 points, and the market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.54% to 25,235.41 points, and the trading volume decreased slightly [29]. - Multiple institutions believe that Chinese assets have the basis for a continuous rebound in 2026, and overseas long - term funds have been flowing into the Chinese stock market since 2025 [30].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market from both supply and demand sides [10][11] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive tone, with continued implementation of moderate easing measures to lower financing costs and support key sectors of the economy [10][11] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure on December 18, 2025, with significant adjustments to tax policies, expanding the number of zero-tariff items [10] Group 2 - The report indicates a bearish outlook for various commodities, including methanol, glass, and cotton, while PTA and soybean oil show a bullish trend [5][3] - The steel market is experiencing weak demand, with new housing sales declining significantly and construction projects facing funding pressures, leading to a decrease in overall demand for building materials [19][20] - The iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low profit margins for steel mills, with a potential for further price declines [20][22] Group 3 - The report highlights a significant increase in foreign long-term capital inflows into the Chinese stock market, contrasting with the outflows seen in 2024, indicating a positive sentiment towards Chinese assets [11] - The automotive industry is undergoing a major restructuring, with Ford shifting focus from electric vehicles to fuel and hybrid vehicles, reflecting broader trends in the sector [13] - The lithium market is expected to see limited price declines due to strong demand, despite some signs of weakening fundamentals [28][29] Group 4 - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with cotton supply pressures and expectations of reduced planting areas, while sugar prices are under pressure from new sugar supply [33][34] - The egg market is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand, although there are signs of potential recovery as the holiday season approaches [39][40] - The apple market is experiencing slow sales and high prices, with expectations of continued weak demand due to competition from other fruits [36] Group 5 - The oil market is facing downward pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with prices expected to remain volatile [40][41] - The rubber market is stable with no significant supply-demand imbalances, while synthetic rubber prices are influenced by raw material costs and cautious purchasing behavior [43][44] - The caustic soda market is showing signs of strength due to favorable market conditions, although overall demand remains weak [45]

Core Insights - Liaoning's "Nine-Nine Consumption Season" aims to transform the traditionally low winter consumption period into a peak season by hosting over 1,500 promotional activities over four months, leveraging local customs and resources [1] - The initiative aligns with the central government's focus on boosting domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, showcasing a proactive approach to economic revitalization during winter [1] Group 1 - The event creatively adapts to various consumer needs by dividing the long winter into nine periods, each with different themes and consumer benefits, addressing the psychological barriers of winter outings [2] - This approach encourages sustainable participation rather than merely distributing subsidies, effectively integrating consumption into daily life [2] - The launch event took place at a ski resort, emphasizing the connection between consumers and the ice and snow economy, with participation from international and domestic stakeholders to foster long-term industry collaboration [2] Group 2 - Unlike many regions that focus solely on ticket sales for winter sports, Liaoning aims to elevate the ice and snow economy from a single tourism product to a comprehensive industrial chain through the "Nine-Nine Consumption Season" [3] - The strategy includes introducing international competitions to enhance venue standards and service levels, strengthening local equipment manufacturing, and accelerating talent development and infrastructure upgrades [3] - This initiative positions Liaoning to potentially transition from a province rich in ice and snow resources to a strong ice and snow industry hub, enhancing the "Ice and Snow Liaoning" brand and driving economic growth [3]

Market Overview - On December 17, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3822.51 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.1% to 12927.39 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.03% to 3072.62 points [1] - Key sectors such as aquaculture, lithium mining, and precious metals opened higher, while the film and commercial aerospace sectors experienced adjustments [1] Company News - Shengyang Technology's subsidiary FTA signed a cooperation agreement for a South American project with a leading satellite company based in Europe, which has capabilities in satellite network layout [2] - Aerospace Information's main business does not involve commercial aerospace, focusing instead on digital tax and smart business products [2] - China Energy Construction's global largest green hydrogen ammonia integrated project, the Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park, commenced production, with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons of green hydrogen and 200,000 tons of green ammonia and methanol [3] - Silan Microelectronics' 12-inch high-end analog integrated circuit chip manufacturing project has received investment approval, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [3] - China General Nuclear Power's joint venture has begun construction on the Ningde No. 6 nuclear power unit, utilizing the Hualong One technology with a capacity of 1210 MW [3] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to implement a strategy to expand domestic demand, focusing on enhancing consumer willingness and capacity [6] - The AI health application sector is experiencing explosive growth, with Ant Group's "Antifortune" app reaching over 15 million monthly active users [11] - The storage chip market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance, with SK Hynix warning of a continued DRAM shortage until 2028, which is more severe than previous forecasts [8] - The commercial real estate market is under pressure, with a 17.3% year-on-year decline in sales area in November, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to October [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][8] Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a strategic initiative, positioning consumption as a core driver for economic growth and stability [2][3] - The report highlights the need to accelerate the expansion of domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to maintain long-term economic health and meet the growing needs of the population [3] - The focus on domestic consumption is seen as a long-term strategy rather than a short-term measure, indicating potential for ongoing stimulus policies to boost the consumption market [3] Summary by Sections Economic Context - The Central Economic Work Conference identified "domestic demand as the main driver" and prioritized building a strong domestic market as a key task for 2026 [3] - The article in "Qiushi" magazine underscores the necessity of expanding domestic demand to support sustainable economic growth [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The report anticipates investment opportunities in the consumption sector for 2026, with a projected mild recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3] - The recovery elasticity is expected to rank as follows: Services > Consumer Staples > High-end Consumption [3] - Services are highlighted as a key area for recovery, with strong policy support and high demand elasticity [3] - Consumer staples are expected to stabilize and recover due to strong demand and cost pass-through capabilities [3] - High-end consumption, while having weaker recovery elasticity, presents structural opportunities in sectors like premium liquor and high-end appliances [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - On December 16, 2025, the four major stock index futures contracts of the current month all declined. The overall trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decline of A - share three major stock indexes, the sudden increase in the decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index, and various domestic and international economic news [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Index Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: On December 16, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) and their corresponding futures contracts all declined. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4497.55, down 1.20%, and IF2512 closed at 4499.4, down 1.16% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 29570 hands, IH by 10967 hands, IC by 30892 hands, and IM by 61780 hands. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 15801 hands, IH decreased by 266 hands, IC increased by 14266 hands, and IM increased by 36380 hands [1][2] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts varied. For example, the basis of IF2512 was 1.85, while that of IF2603 was - 46.15 [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member's Open Interest Changes in Index Futures - The open - interest changes of long and short positions in the top 20 members of different contracts were different. For example, in the IF2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 737, and the short positions decreased by 2678 [5] 3.3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6] 3.4. Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: The three major A - share stock indexes declined unilaterally, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. Nearly 4300 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.11% at 3824.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. The A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: In the afternoon of the 16th, the decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index suddenly increased, and the decline of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index widened to 2%. The decline of some large - cap stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent increased, and the corresponding call warrants tumbled [6] - **Domestic Policy News**: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office pointed out that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Hainan will officially launch the full - island customs closure on December 18, 2025, and the preferential tariff policies will be optimized [7] - **US Economic Data**: The US non - farm payrolls in November increased by 64,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, a new high since September 2021. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results [7][8]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锌 | ★★★★ | 锌：内外盘共振，锌价震荡下行。昨日 LME 新加坡仓库注册仓单大增，疑似有巨头释放手中 货源。此次集中交仓后盘面集中度明显下降，LME0-3 结构也由 Back 转为 Contango，近 端呈现出宽松状态。我们认为此轮海外逼仓行情已经告一段落，后续出口窗口关闭下，国内 去库节奏也预计放缓，盘面或重新回归空头主导行情。长周期来看，当下正处于锌矿扩产周 期尾声，明年全球锌矿增量项目相对有限，增量集中在前期爬产的几个大型项目。一方面， 矿山产能提升需要一定时间，部分项目明年能否达到满负荷存在疑问。另一方面，矿山增量 存在结构性分化，海外锌矿增量有限，叠加生产扰动增加，锌矿紧平衡或成为常态。这也意 味着 TC 的持续承压，明年 TC 上行空间或低于今年，锌价具备上浮的弹性。整体来看，我们 认为供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格，消费走阔决定价格上方空间，"十五五"开局之年预计政 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-17 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 税期扰动渐显，银行间资金面边际收敛。今日公开市场有 1173 亿元到期，央 行投放了 1353 亿元，实现净回笼 714 亿元。银行间资金情绪指数平稳，资金利率 小幅抬升，其中银存间隔夜加权在 1.27%附近窄幅变动，7 天抬升 0.48bp 至 1.4488%，中长期资金平稳，1 年 AAA 存单利率在 1.64%~1.66%左右变动。 结论： 国内基本面从年中以来边际走弱，特别是投资端加速下滑仍对信用扩张形成 较大拖累，12 月政治局会议也定调"延续适度宽 ...