Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. It also provides an analysis of the previous day's market conditions and future expectations for various futures including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and commodity futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4565 and 4575 points and support levels at 4511 and 4492 points [2][17]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 108.10 and 108.20 yuan and support levels at 107.92 and 107.85 yuan [2][37]. - Thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is likely to have a weak wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 113.7 and 113.3 yuan and resistance levels at 114.2 and 114.4 yuan [2][39]. - Gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 945.5 and 939.6 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 963.3 and 968.3 yuan/gram [3][41]. - Silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to have a strong - side fluctuation, attacking resistance levels at 13800 and 14000 yuan/kg, with support levels at 13423 and 13381 yuan/kg, and may hit a record high since listing [3][49]. - Platinum futures main contract PT2606 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 444.1 and 448.4 yuan/gram and support levels at 439.8 and 436.4 yuan/gram [3][52]. - Palladium futures main contract PD2606 is likely to have a strong - side fluctuation, attacking resistance levels at 385.7 and 390.3 yuan/gram, with support levels at 375.5 and 374.6 yuan/gram [3][56]. - Copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 89000 and 88500 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 89700 and 90000 yuan/ton [4][57]. - Aluminum futures main contract AL2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 21830 and 21730 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 22000 and 22050 yuan/ton [4][64]. - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 2640 and 2620 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2677 and 2692 yuan/ton, and may hit a record low since listing [4][68]. - Polysilicon futures main contract PS2601 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 55700 and 55200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 57400 and 57700 yuan/ton [4][73]. - Lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 is likely to have a strong wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 98900 and 101200 yuan/ton and support levels at 95000 and 93500 yuan/ton [4][78]. - Rebar futures main contract RB2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 3146 and 3135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3176 and 3186 yuan/ton [4][83]. - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 3312 and 3298 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3340 and 3358 yuan/ton [4][85]. - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 795 and 790 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 805 and 808 yuan/ton [5][88]. - Coking coal futures new main contract JM2605 is likely to have a weak - side fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1144 and 1125 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1188 and 1201 yuan/ton [7][91]. - Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1016 and 1004 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1046 and 1051 yuan/ton [7][95]. - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 1155 and 1141 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1185 and 1191 yuan/ton [7][101]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 453 and 456 yuan/barrel [7][105]. - PTA futures main contract TA601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 4720 and 4688 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4756 and 4778 yuan/ton [7][110]. - PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, hitting support levels at 4526 and 4500 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4576 and 4593 yuan/ton [7][112]. - Soybean meal futures main contract M2605 is likely to have a weak fluctuation, with support levels at 2835 and 2823 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 2865 and 2892 yuan/ton [7][114]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - China and Russia held a strategic security consultation, reaching new consensus on major issues related to strategic security interests, including the issues of Japan and the Ukraine crisis [8]. - Some Japanese organizations expressed their willingness to visit China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry hopes these organizations play a positive role in Japan [8]. - Fujian issued 12 policies to support Taiwan - related businesses, promoting the construction of a cross - strait integration development demonstration zone [8]. - The head of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a management method for credit restoration, which will be implemented on December 25 [9]. - Five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission proposed measures to strengthen the construction of data - related disciplines and talent teams [9]. - US President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman in early 2026, and it is rumored that the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is the likely candidate [9]. - The US and Ukraine held high - level talks, and the Ukrainian delegation submitted a detailed report on the talks [9]. - Costco sued the US government, claiming that the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" are illegal and seeking a full refund [10]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, the US economy will grow by 2% and 1.7% respectively, and the eurozone economy will grow by 1.3% and 1.2% respectively [10]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that the global economic growth will slow down to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024 [10]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's CPI in November increased by 2.2% year - on - year, strengthening the market's expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates again this year [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 2, international precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce [11]. - On December 2, the US crude oil main contract fell 1.23% to $58.59 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.28% to $62.36 per barrel. The unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory last week raised concerns about oversupply [11]. - On December 2, London base metals all declined. LME zinc futures fell 1.32% to $3055.50 per ton, LME nickel futures fell 1.26% to $14740.00 per ton, etc. [12]. - On December 2, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0712 at 16:30, up 13 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.0725 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0794, down 35 basis points [12]. - On December 2, at the New York session's end, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.32, and most non - US currencies rose [12].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weakly volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Bottoming out with volatility [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.2: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Weakly volatile [7] - Live pigs: Strongly volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [11] - PX: Widely volatile [11] - PTA: Volatile [11] - MEG: Weakly volatile [11] - PF: Await - and - see [11] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and international situation. For example, the iron ore market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the price is volatile at a high level; the gold price is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, and the short - term fluctuations are affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment [2][4][6] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in the real estate, and the new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is volatile at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After the previous continuous decline, the valuation is reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The market is worried about the resumption of production on the supply side. Steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, and the price is supported at a low level in the short term [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter restocking has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, and the real estate new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances. The market expects three production lines in Hubei to be cold - repaired in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The float glass inventory has decreased, but the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand. The price is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair progress and macro situation [2] - Soda ash: The report does not provide detailed information other than the investment rating of "volatile" [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48%, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 1.00%. The market has short - term adjustments, but the medium - term trend is still optimistic [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank increased the net investment of medium - and long - term liquidity tools in November. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, and the market trend rebounded slightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment are short - term disturbance factors, and the long - term price is supported by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [4][6] Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume decreased last week. The import volume in October showed different trends, and the expected arrival volume decreased significantly. The inventory pressure has weakened, and the price is expected to bottom out with volatility [5] - Pulp: The spot market price became stronger on the previous trading day, and the cost support increased, but the paper mills' acceptance of high - price pulp is low, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price was partially raised on the previous trading day. The supply is stable, the orders are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia in October were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be range - bound [7] - Meals: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is declining. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughtering rate increased slightly but is expected to weaken next week. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: The raw material price in Yunnan is stable, and the output in Hainan decreased due to temperature. The supply in Thailand and Vietnam is affected by rain. The inventory is increasing seasonally, and the price is expected to be widely volatile [11] - PX: The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is falling. The PX supply is high, but the downstream demand is good, and the price is widely volatile [11] - PTA: The cost is loosening, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening, and the price is expected to follow the cost [11] - MEG: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly volatile [11] - PF: The market is expected to be narrowly adjusted under the game of multiple factors [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market presents a complex and diverse situation, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and seasonal changes. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures are under pressure and the bond market is affected by the central bank's policies; in the agricultural products market, different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as production capacity, cost, and market sentiment all play important roles in determining prices. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Pressure is evident, and the market will remain volatile in the short term without further positive stimuli [18][19]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions when prices rise, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. Bond Futures - Core view: The central bank's bond purchase scale is lower than expected, and the bond market trend in the short term may be more dominated by investor behavior [22][23]. - Strategy: Take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: International soybean pressure is still obvious, and domestic supply has uncertainties. It is expected to be mainly in a shock operation [26]. - Strategy: Use the strategy of selling a wide - straddle option [26]. Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are bottoming out, and domestic prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [30][31]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term, and sell put options at low levels [31]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core view: The shock market continues, with palm oil inventory expected to decrease gradually but still at a relatively high level, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil showing different trends [35]. - Strategy: Adopt the low - buying and high - selling strategy in the short term [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The price of American corn is expected to be strong in the short term, and the price of domestic corn is also strong [38]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 corn at high levels, wait for the callback of 05 and 07 corn, and narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [38]. Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to decline [42]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell a wide - straddle option [43]. Peanuts - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new peanut quality is lower than last year, and the supply of oil peanuts is loose [45]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 peanuts at high levels, wait and see for 05 peanuts, conduct a 15 - contract reverse spread, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 option [46]. Eggs - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The short - term destocking speed is expected to be slow, and the near - month contract is expected to oscillate within a range [49]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions in the far - month contract at low levels [50]. Apples - Core view: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The apple production has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [54]. - Strategy: Exit and wait and see due to the high price of the 1 - month contract and the approaching delivery risk [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - Strategy: The US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [58]. Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: They are operating at the bottom and oscillating. The previous decline has priced in some negative factors, and there is a demand for winter storage in the later stage [61]. - Strategy: Try to go long on the far - month contract at low levels [61]. Iron Ore - Core view: It should be treated with a short - selling mindset at high levels. The supply is loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is declining [64]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high levels [65]. Steel - Core view: The steel price is oscillating within a range, and the cost provides support. The black sector is affected by the contract change, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors jointly affect the price [66]. - Strategy: Maintain an oscillating strategy, conduct the spread trading of hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio, and wait and see for options [67]. Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. The supply of silicon iron and manganese silicon is decreasing, and the cost is rising, but the demand recovery is difficult to last [68][69]. - Strategy: The short - term rebound is driven by cost, and sell a virtual - value straddle option combination [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Trump's hint about the Fed chairperson boosts market sentiment, and silver is leading the rise. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in December further supports the precious metals [72]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in gold based on the 5 - day moving average, and consider entering the market for silver cautiously at low levels based on the 5 - day moving average. Buy virtual - value call options [72][73]. Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Driven by the macro - economy, they are operating strongly. The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts is strong, but pay attention to the callback risk [75]. - Strategy: Go long on platinum at low levels, be cautious about the callback risk caused by the spread between domestic and foreign markets, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium spread trading, and buy virtual - value call options [75]. Copper - Core view: The overall center of gravity is moving up. The supply of copper ore is still tight in 2026, and the market expects the US to continue to import copper [78]. - Strategy: Take partial profit on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and then buy back on the callback [79]. Alumina - Core view: There is no substantial production reduction, and the price is running weakly. The spot trading is scarce, and it is difficult to promote substantial production reduction [82]. - Strategy: The price is running weakly, and wait and see for spread trading and options [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, but the fundamentals provide obvious support. The supply is in a deficit, and the demand has new growth points [86]. - Strategy: The price is oscillating strongly, and consider going long on the callback in the medium term [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: It is oscillating strongly with the aluminum price. The macro - environment improves, but the fundamentals are affected by raw material shortages and uneven demand [91]. - Strategy: Oscillate at a high level with the aluminum price, and wait and see for spread trading and options [91]. Zinc - Core view: It is oscillating in a wide range. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease in December, and the consumption is entering the off - season [93][94]. - Strategy: Settle the previous profitable long positions and wait and see [94]. Lead - Core view: It is oscillating within a range. The cost of secondary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory has decreased [96][97]. - Strategy: Try to go long lightly at low levels and be vigilant about macro - factors [97]. Nickel - Core view: The supply will increase and the demand will decrease in December, so maintain a short - selling position. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to recover [98]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell virtual - value call options [99]. Stainless Steel - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, waiting for macro - economic stimuli [100]. - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided in the text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, but geopolitical news and the easing of global trade tensions affect its upward momentum. London gold needs to move in the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with strong industrial attributes, have been strong recently but show signs of adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold prices [4]. - The medium - level bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US November ISM manufacturing PMI strengthens the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The price of London gold is affected by multiple factors, and silver, platinum, and palladium show signs of adjustment [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process. The re - emergence of the Abe economic route in Japan and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system provide support for precious metals. The medium - level bull market continues, and investors are advised to look for long - entry opportunities [5]. - **Domestic Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 959.73, down 0.48%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 13,418, up 1.08%; Gold T + D closed at 954.80, down 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 13,408, up 1.11% [5]. 3.2 Main Macro Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: After the US - Ukraine talks on the Russia - Ukraine peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and a US envoy goes to Moscow. The US and the UK reach a zero - tariff agreement on pharmaceuticals and medical technology, which will increase the UK's drug expenditure [16]. - **Economic Data**: The US manufacturing PMI in November dropped from 48.7 in October to 48.2, indicating a continuous contraction for nine months. Although manufacturing activities are expected to improve after the end of the government shutdown, they may remain sluggish [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

昨日12月2日（星期二），黄金开盘后开始震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至4181附近回升，美盘上涨4230/4231区域受阻大跌，在跌至4164/4163区域企稳反弹，收 盘前反弹至4212附近，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期强烈：市场对12月美联储降息25个基点的定价概率达89%，较一月前的63%大幅上升。美国制造业数据弱于预期等经济降温迹象，进一 步强化降息预期；即将公布的11月ADP就业报告、9月PCE指数等关键数据将为利率路径提供指引。此外，特朗普计划明年初提名新美联储主席，鸽派热门 人选哈西特若上任，可能放大宽松预期，长期利好黄金。 2、全球央行购金热情高涨：10月各国央行净购金53吨，环比增长36%，创2025年初以来最大月度需求。央行持续青睐黄金作为储备资产，对冲地缘风险与 货币贬值压力，为金价提供稳定需求支撑。 3、地缘政治风险升级：俄美就乌克兰问题举行闭门会谈但未达成妥协，局势仍存不确定性；特朗普表态将对贩运非法毒品的国家采取攻击措施，引发相关 国家反击，国际紧张氛围刺激避险情绪，推动投资者转向黄金。 4、本交易日需关注美国11月ADP就业人数变动、9月进口物价指数月 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices declined amid volatile trading, with WTI crude oil closing down 1.2% at over $58 per barrel, fluctuating around a $1.40 range [2][4][15] - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, particularly the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with President Putin threatening retaliation against countries aiding Ukraine [2][13] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with liquidity rapidly depleting, increasing the risk of significant price drops due to a lack of buying confidence [3][14] Base Metals - Copper prices retreated from historical highs, ending a two-day increase, with LME copper down 1% at $11,145 per ton [6][18][19] - Other base metals also saw declines, including aluminum down 1% at $2,865.5 per ton, nickel down 0.9% at $14,800 per ton, and zinc down 1.1% at $3,062.5 per ton [19][20] Precious Metals - Silver prices remained near historical highs, with significant volatility; at one point, silver dropped 2.4% before rising 1.1%, approaching a previous high of $58.8434 per ounce [9][21] - Silver is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, nearly doubling in price this year, while gold prices fell 0.6% to $4,208.68 per ounce [10][22]

原油价格周二走低，市场走势动荡；在俄乌和平协议谈判的关键一天，交易员们在评估两国之间冲突的 走向。 WTI原油在大约1.40美元的区间波动，收盘下跌1.2%，结算价在每桶58美元上方。 据国际文传电讯社报道，俄罗斯总统普京发出威胁，可能对在冲突中援助乌克兰的国家的船只采取报复 措施。但普京也强调了俄罗斯经济增长的必要性，在另一个场合称政府对一些行业出现的不平衡现象不 满意。这些评论发表之际，俄罗斯石油生产商正面临困境，在原油价格下跌、制裁和货币走强的背景下 举步维艰。 美国特使威特科夫抵达莫斯科与普京会面。在就潜在的和平协议进行谈判之际，普京声称乌克兰一座重 要城市已被俄罗斯攻占。过去一周，四艘俄罗斯油轮遭到袭击，表明与俄罗斯石油运输有关的袭击急剧 增加。 美国在委内瑞拉采取军事行动的可能性也带来了地缘政治风险，为油价提供了支持。美国总统特朗普暗 示，国防部将很快开始对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团进行地面打击，加剧了上述担忧。 不过，CIBC Private Wealth Group的高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示，市场对油价下跌的广泛预期仍 然占据主导地位。"流动性正在迅速枯竭，鉴于当前悲观的 ...

周二欧洲时段前半程，黄金（XAU/USD）延续抛售态势，但缺乏持续抛压，目前仍维持在4200美元上方。股市整体向好削弱传统避险资产需求，拖累贵金 属价格自周一触及的10月20日以来高点回落。然而，市场对美联储（Fed）维持鸽派立场的预期为无收益的黄金提供了支撑。 随着风险偏好回升削弱传统避险资产吸引力，黄金吸引部分抛售压力。 市场对美联储12月降息预期升温，持续压制美元汇率，为贵金属提供支撑。 交易员态度谨慎，目前正等待本周美国宏观数据带来新的市场动能。 投资者似乎确信美联储将在下周政策会议上再度降息。这使得美元未能延续隔夜从两周低点反弹的势头，反而持续为金价提供支撑。鉴于本周焦点转向关键 美国宏观数据发布，在黄金/美元汇率出现强劲后续抛售前谨慎观望，避免激进做空布局，等待进一步下跌机会更为明智。 市场动向：风险偏好回升令金价承压；美联储鸽派预期限制跌幅 亚洲股市在昨日抛售后周二早盘转涨，削弱了传统避险资产黄金的需求。然而受美联储鸽派预期及美元看跌情绪影响，金价在亚洲时段跌破4200美元关口后 迅速反弹。 随着多位美联储官员近期表态，交易员加大押注美联储进一步宽松政策的力度。此外，近期疲软的美国经济数据表明全 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国是直通车 这波行情能走多远 黄金又涨了。上周五刚经历剧烈震荡，这周国际现货黄金重新回到每盎司4200美元上方，约等于每克 954元人民币。 12月2日，国际现货黄金价格在4200美元附近徘徊，截至发稿报4217美元/盎司。就在前一天，国际金价 冲到了4264美元，创下近一个半月的新高。 国内黄饰价格也同步走高，多家品牌金饰价格都突破了每克1320元：周生生金价报1336元，周大福、中 国黄金报1328元，老凤祥报1327元。 万得（Wind）资讯数据显示，年内国际金价已经50次刷新历史新高。在不确定性加剧的环境中，黄金 仍然是资金追逐的焦点。 两大动力推高金价 本轮金价走强，主要有两大动力。 长期看，美联储降息预期、美元走势疲软、经济不确定性增加、地缘政治风险等诸多因素共同作用下， 形成了有利于黄金价格上涨的宏观环境。 一方面，美联储进入全面宽松周期。 涨势能否延续？ 工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林分析，这具体表现在三方面： 黄金这波行情能涨到哪？ 一是12月起结束缩表；二是12月降息基本确定，2026年可能以每季度50 ...