Key Points - The Ministry of Commerce announced that China will approve export applications for controlled items that meet certain conditions, while the U.S. will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [2] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges plan to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10% [1] - From January to May, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year due to insufficient effective demand, declining industrial prices, and short-term fluctuations [1][4] - The total revenue of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises in China fell by 0.1% year-on-year from January to May, while total profits decreased by 2.8% [4] - Ideal Auto announced an expected delivery of approximately 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter, down from a previous forecast of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles, citing short-term impacts from upgrading its sales system [5]

特朗普希望提前指定接替鲍威尔接班人，通过"影子主席"来影响美联储，这不利于提升市场对美国货币政策制定 完整性和独立性的观感，也不利于美元储备货币地位。 过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席 鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。 美东时间周四，又有五位联储官员表示，不准备支持下次会议，也就是市场预期的7月降息。 此外，本周有消息称，特朗普正酝酿提名鲍威尔的继任者，或将在今年9月或10月前选定并宣布，市场对此也份外 关注。 7月降息预期再遭降温 近期，多项美国经济数据强化了政策宽松预期，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼过去一周也均表示，若通胀持续受控，可 能最快在7月29~30日的美联储议息会议（FOMC）上支持降息。利率互换市场随之加大了对美联储降息的押注， 完全定价年内两次降息。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯也称，"今年稍晚美联储确实会重启降息，可能降息一次或更多次。但7月会议前，我们仅 能获得一个月的新数据，我希望看到更多数据，目前看不到降息紧迫性。" 里士满联储主席巴尔金预计，关税将对物价构成上行压力。"鉴于诸多不确定性，美联储应在 ...

Group 1 - The core PCE price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with expectations for a month-over-month increase of 0.1% for both core and overall PCE indices, maintaining the same level as April [1] - Year-over-year, the core PCE price index is expected to rise to 2.6% in May, up from 2.5% in April, while the overall PCE index is projected to increase to 2.3%, compared to 2.1% in April [1] - The upcoming data will also provide insights into consumer spending and income growth, with personal spending expected to grow by 0.2% month-over-month and personal income by 0.3%, a slowdown from April's 0.8% [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts predict that used car prices will remain volatile in the coming months, with the Manheim used car price index rising by 1.7% in early June after a 1.4% decline in May [2] - The Manheim index, reflecting wholesale prices, may indicate an overall upward trend in car prices, as rising new car prices could drive consumers to the used car market [2] - Evercore ISI analysts noted that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.15% in May, with tariffs expected to impact prices in the future but not currently affecting them [2]

新华财经北京6月27日电（崔凯）日本总务省发布数据显示，东京都6月份剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者价 格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低于市场预期的3.3%，较5月份3.6%的涨幅明显放缓。这是东京通胀四 个月以来首次出现下降趋势，为日本央行和政府在通胀高烧不退的背景下带来一丝喘息。 核心中的"核心"通胀仍具黏性 剔除生鲜食品和能源价格后的"核心核心"CPI同比上涨3.1%，虽然低于5月份的3.3%，但仍高于日本央 行2%的目标。这一指标被视为衡量国内需求驱动型通胀的关键风向标，显示出服务业和内需主导的价 格压力仍未显著缓解。 服务业通胀率维持在2.1%，表明企业在劳动力成本上升的背景下，仍在通过提高服务价格将成本转嫁 给消费者。这也强化了市场对日本央行未来继续收紧货币政策的预期。 央行加息预期持续发酵，政治压力与经济现实交织 尽管通胀出现降温迹象，但其水平仍远高于日本央行设定的2%目标。多位央行官员近期已明确表示， 若全球贸易不确定性缓解，不排除进一步加息的可能性。尤其是审议委员田村直树强调："如果通胀上 行风险加剧，日本央行可能需要作为物价稳定的守护者采取果断行动。" 能源价格回落+政策干预，推动通胀降温 目 ...

当前，特朗普总统挥舞的"关税大棒"，正遭遇来自日本、法国、德国等传统盟友的强硬抵抗，贸易谈判纷纷陷入僵局，各国对签协议显得有些"犹豫不决"。 关税谈判陷入僵局 此外，印度和美国在汽车零部件、钢铁和农产品进口关税等问题上存在分歧，双方僵持不下。 离7月9日这一美国政府暂停征收"对等关税"90天的截止期限仅剩十来天，多国与美国的关税谈判仍进展不及预期，这对特朗普政府来说，压力肉眼可见地飙 升。 随着多国对于关税的强硬表态，以及特朗普政府面对国内各阶层的压力，有分析认为，当前特朗普对于关税的态度似乎出现软化，相比此前其激进的政治口 号，目前很多关税条款的细节均可以谈判。 经济形势现隐忧 本周四，WTO（世界贸易组织）发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从今年3月发布的102.8升至103.5，这一指数持续高于基 准点100，表明全球货物贸易仍呈现增长态势。此外，该数字也是2021年8月以来的最高水平。 分析人士称，美国总统特朗普已对进入美国的商品加征关税，并威胁要进一步提高关税，这导致企业提前下订单，以避免额外的成本。 WTO对此也表示，全球商品贸易加速增长，但增长势头可能无法维持。上述WTO ...

张津镭：中东停火压制金价，日内依旧高空为主 昨日黄金继续走回落行情，亚盘开盘有所反弹，最高到了3350后开始回落，空单刚好于3346附近进场。 随后金价开始走低，美盘刷新日内低点至3309美元，多单于3310自动止盈离场，大赚30余美金。不过尾 盘收回不少失地，最终金价是收盘于3327美元，日线收于一根小阴十字。 周五（6月27日）伊朗与以色列之间的停火协议仍在持续，这显著降低了市场的避险需求。据报道，特 朗普总统已宣布停火协议生效，并计划下周与伊朗进行会谈，这一进展使得避险情绪显著降温，对金价 构成压力。 今晚间将公布美国PCE物价指数，这是美联储衡量通胀的关键指标。若数据低于预期，可能强化市场对 美联储降息的押注，利好黄金；若数据超预期，则可能打压金价。可以说，现在只要中东冲突不重新开 始，黄金将会继续回落。 19:30美联储威廉姆斯主持会议 20:30加拿大4月GDP月率 20:30美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率 20:30美国5月个人支出月率 20:30美国5月核心PCE物价指数月率 21:15美联储哈玛克和理事库克出席活动 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金在回撤3300下方后回弹，在回弹至3320上方，技术上 ...

随着投资者持续消化与冲突相关的新闻，美国股市保持稳健。近期油价波动加剧，加上市场忧虑局势升 级，为国防概念股提供一定支持。不过，市场尚未反映长期冲突的风险。大宗商品价格上升可能会推高 多个行业的营运成本，导致短期利润率受压，而在以往的冲突中，投资者均对此情况高度敏感。 在轰炸事件后，新兴市场整体表现相对冷静，主要由于油价及美元走势平稳，两者向来是影响新兴市场 股票表现的关键因素。若事件能迅速化解，中东股市或会受惠上升。另持续关注中国的态度，目前其立 场仍属克制，但若采取更强硬的姿态，或进一步加剧中美紧张关系。从长远角度看，关注中国对中国台 湾省的政策走向。这次袭击事件可能会对短期行动起到阻吓作用，但若中东局势持续恶化，或令中国趁 美国专注中东局势时调整行动策略。目前，对市场维持审慎乐观，因为推动2025年新兴市场表现的主要 动力仍然存在。 思博瑞投资管理发文称，根据市场初步反应，伊以冲突事件对能源市场造成最大波动，尤其是石油市 场。相信由于伊朗有避免大规模战争的强烈动机，确保石油在波斯湾的输出，因此对全球整体影响仍会 较低。中东局势缓和或导致能源价格(包括石油及液化天然气)下降，较低的能源价格有助于抑制通胀， ...

Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in the proportion of bullish positions in gold [1] - The upcoming release of the US PCE data is anticipated to impact market sentiment, particularly if it shows a decrease in inflation, which could potentially boost gold prices [1] Group 2 - The data shows a significant disparity in bullish and bearish positions across various indices, with the S&P 500 having 72% bullish and 28% bearish positions, while the Nasdaq has 16% bullish and 84% bearish positions [3] - The Hang Seng Index shows a 36% bullish and 64% bearish split, indicating a more cautious sentiment in the Hong Kong market [3] - The DAX 40 index has 39% bullish and 61% bearish positions, reflecting a similar cautious outlook in the German market [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 17% bullish and 83% bearish positions, while the Euro/Yen pair has a significant 92% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a notable 84% bullish sentiment, contrasting with the bearish outlook in other currency pairs [4] - The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen pair shows a 39% bullish and 61% bearish split, indicating a mixed sentiment [4]

新华财经北京6月27日电 美国国债收益率周四（6月26日）继续走低，10年期美债收益率下跌4个基点， 报4.25%；2年期美债收益率跌超6个基点，报3.72%，均创5月2日以来新低。 当天发布的其他数据显示，美国经济面临通胀压力犹存、企业盈利承压、就业市场不稳定以及政策方向 不明的复杂局面。 美国一季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化季环比终值达3.5%，高于预期的3.4%。衡量国内总 购买价格的指数增长3.4%，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数上涨3.7%，核心PCE价格指数同样上涨 3.5%，且均较此前估值有所上调，这意味着物价上涨趋势仍在延续，对投资环境的稳定性形成挑战。 5月耐用品订单数据呈现积极信号，环比初值高达16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅，远超预期值 8.5%。剔除运输设备后，5月份耐用品订单环比增长0.5%，核心资本货物订单（衡量企业设备投资的关 键指标）5月上涨1.7%，均好于预期和前值。 截至6月21日当周，经季节性调整的失业救济金初次申请人数下降1万至23.6万，好于经济学家预期。但 裁员数量有所增加，且招聘活动疲软，导致许多失业者难以找到新工作。截至6月14日当周，续请失 ...