美联储：不降息 当地时间28日，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间保持在3.5%至3.75%不变，该利率决议符合市场预期。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通 胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 美联储自2024年9月启动降息周期以来累计降息6次，分析人士指出，本次"按兵不动"或标志美联储进入经济数据"观望期"。眼下，美联储正面临关税政策 可能导致通胀反弹、美国就业市场疲软、货币政策独立性受到行政干预等多重挑战，其内部官员就未来货币政策路径的分歧日益加剧，市场目前仍预计美 联储或在今年6月再次降息，年内总计降息两次。 黄金涨破5400美元关口 1月28日纽约尾盘，现货黄金收涨4.51%，收盘站上5400美元，盘中最高触及5419.24美元。COMEX黄金期货涨6.46%，报5411美元/盎司，盘中刷新历史高 位至5414.7美元。 近期现货黄金接连突破多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, leading to record highs in spot gold and silver prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, while upgrading its assessment of economic growth [5][6]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates until the end of Powell's term [2][5]. - Powell indicated that current data does not suggest a significantly restrictive policy and mentioned that no rate hikes are expected in the next meeting [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose, reflecting a robust expansion in economic activity and signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [6]. - The Dow Jones increased by 12.19 points (0.02%) to 49,015.60, while the Nasdaq rose by 40.35 points (0.17%) to 23,857.45, and the S&P 500 slightly decreased by 0.57 points (-0.01%) to 6,978.03 [2][3]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Prices - On January 28, spot gold surged over 4.5%, reaching a new high of 5,413.805 USD/oz [3][8]. - By January 29, during the Asian trading session, both spot gold and COMEX gold prices surpassed 5,500 USD/oz [9][10]. - Spot silver also saw significant gains, breaking through 118 USD/oz, marking a new historical record [10].

2026.01. 29 本文字数：2738，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（28日）凌晨，美联储公布1月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式决定 维持利率区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，两张反对票来源于美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们提出降息25个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的经济增长前景相较去年有所改善，委员会将继续根据最新出炉的经济数据， 逐次会议作出降息相关决策，并为美联储坚持独立性辩护。当前，美联储正应对外界对美国总统特朗普干预 其中立独立性的诸多质疑，同时静待新任领导层的产生。 美联储肯定经济表现 美联储决议声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量保持低位，失业率呈现 出一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高状态。 值得重点关注的是，声明中删除了此前提及的 "委员会认为劳动力市场走弱的风险高于通胀高企风险"的表 述。这一调整意味着，美联储官员认为其实现低通胀和充分就业的双重目标正逐步趋于平衡，因此货币政策 将采取更为审慎的观望态度。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会伊始表示，美国经济开年根基稳固。"美国经济去年以稳健步伐扩张，2026 年开局根 ...

北京时间周四（28日）凌晨，美联储公布1月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式 决定维持利率区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，两张反对票来源于美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们提出降息25个 基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的经济增长前景相较去年有所改善，委员会将继续根据最新出炉的经济数 据，逐次会议作出降息相关决策，并为美联储坚持独立性辩护。当前，美联储正应对外界对美国总统特 朗普干预其中立独立性的诸多质疑，同时静待新任领导层的产生。 美联储肯定经济表现 美联储决议声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量保持低位，失业率 呈现出一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高状态。 值得重点关注的是，声明中删除了此前提及的 "委员会认为劳动力市场走弱的风险高于通胀高企风 险"的表述。这一调整意味着，美联储官员认为其实现低通胀和充分就业的双重目标正逐步趋于平衡， 因此货币政策将采取更为审慎的观望态度。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会伊始表示，美国经济开年根基稳固。"美国经济去年以稳健步伐扩张，2026 年开局 根基稳固。尽管就业岗位新增数量持续处于低位，但失业率已显现一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高 ...

北京时间周四（28日）凌晨，美联储公布1月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式 决定维持利率区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，两张反对票来源于美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们提出降息25个 基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的经济增长前景相较去年有所改善，委员会将继续根据最新出炉的经济数 据，逐次会议作出降息相关决策，并为美联储坚持独立性辩护。当前，美联储正应对外界对美国总统特 朗普干预其中立独立性的诸多质疑，同时静待新任领导层的产生。 美联储肯定经济表现 美联储决议声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量保持低位，失业率 呈现出一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高状态。 值得重点关注的是，声明中删除了此前提及的 "委员会认为劳动力市场走弱的风险高于通胀高企风 险"的表述。这一调整意味着，美联储官员认为其实现低通胀和充分就业的双重目标正逐步趋于平衡， 因此货币政策将采取更为审慎的观望态度。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会伊始表示，美国经济开年根基稳固。"美国经济去年以稳健步伐扩张，2026 年开局 根基稳固。尽管就业岗位新增数量持续处于低位，但失业率已显现一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高 ...

盘面上，美股三大指数收盘涨跌互现，大型科技股表现分化。 美联储按兵不动 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。这一决定符合市场 预期。 当地时间1月28日，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。 受此影响，贵金属市场大幅走高，伦敦金现价格冲上5400美元/盎司，再创新高；COMEX白银期货涨超10%。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，截至当日早些时候，市场认为美联储在此次货币政策会议上维持利率不变的概率超过95%。 Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指涨0.17%。 美股大型科技股表现分化，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.19%。成分股中，英伟达涨1.59%，谷歌、微软分别涨0.38%、0.22%；苹果、亚马逊、Meta、 特斯拉收跌。 | 盗版 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | lil | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 191.520 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, after previously lowering rates by 25 basis points in three consecutive meetings [1][3][13]. Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, with signs of stabilization in the labor market and a slight increase in the unemployment rate as of September [6][18]. - Inflation remains relatively high, with the core PCE slightly above 2% after excluding the impact of tariffs, which are expected to peak and then decline this year [11][18]. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Decision - The FOMC reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging the high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [18]. - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a careful assessment of the latest data and economic risks, with readiness to adjust monetary policy if necessary [18]. Voting Dynamics - Two members of the FOMC, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, voted against the decision to maintain the rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [15]. - The voting dynamics indicate differing views within the committee regarding the appropriate monetary policy stance [8][15]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index saw an increase of up to 1%, while major U.S. stock indices experienced minimal fluctuations [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [2] - Following the Fed's decision, precious metals saw significant price increases, with London gold reaching a new high of $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising over 10% [1][8] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.17% [2] Group 2 - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with the Tech Giants Index up by 0.19%. Nvidia rose by 1.59%, while Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla experienced declines [4] - Microsoft reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $81.27 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $80.31 billion, but its stock fell over 7% post-announcement [4] - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue reached $59.89 billion, surpassing market estimates of $58.42 billion, leading to a post-announcement stock increase of over 10% [5] - Tesla's Q4 2025 revenue was $24.901 billion, slightly above market expectations, resulting in a stock increase of over 3% [6] Group 3 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.32%, and the Chinese tech leaders index increased by 0.63%, with BYD ADR up over 2% and Alibaba, NetEase, and Xiaomi ADRs rising over 1% [7] Group 4 - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for March delivery rising by $0.82 to $63.21 per barrel, a 1.31% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.83 to $68.40 per barrel, a 1.23% increase [10]

Monetary Policy - Interest rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for the next steps [2][11] - The current policy stance is at the high end of the neutral rate range, and it is difficult to indicate that the policy is significantly restrictive [11][28] Inflation - Inflation risks have somewhat dissipated, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 3% by December 2025 [2] - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE index rose by 4.3% [10] - The high inflation levels are largely attributed to tariff impacts, which are expected to peak and then decline by mid-2026 [3][31] Employment - Employment risks are stabilizing, with the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization at around 4.4% [10][11] - Job growth has been low, averaging only about 22,000 new jobs per month recently, reflecting a slowdown in labor supply growth [10][19] Tariffs - The majority of the tariff impacts have been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-induced inflation will dissipate by mid-2026 [3][31] - If the peak impact of tariffs is observed, it may signal a potential easing of monetary policy [3][31] AI and Technology - Short-term impacts of AI may lead to job losses, but the long-term effects remain uncertain [14][61] - The deployment of AI is being closely monitored for its potential effects on the labor market and overall economy [62] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for effective monetary policy, and there is a strong commitment to maintaining this independence [52][51] - The legal case involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is considered potentially one of the most significant in the Fed's history [10][52] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is expected to have a solid foundation entering 2026, with consumer spending showing resilience and business investment continuing to grow [8][57] - Recent government shutdowns may have temporarily affected economic activity, but these impacts are expected to reverse as the government resumes operations [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing the series of rate cuts that began in September of the previous year [1] - The voting on the interest rate decision showed a split with a 10-2 ratio, where members Milan and Waller supported a 25 basis point cut [1] - The statement did not provide signals regarding the timing of the next rate cut, emphasizing that rate assessments will be based on data, economic outlook, and risks [1][2] Group 2 - The economic outlook has been upgraded, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a "robust" pace, although uncertainty remains high [2] - The employment market has shown signs of stabilization, with previous concerns about rising risks to employment being removed from the statement [2][4] - Inflation remains slightly above target, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3% in December, and tariff-related inflation anticipated to peak mid-year [5] Group 3 - The economic foundation in the U.S. is described as solid, with a noticeable improvement in the economic activity outlook compared to December predictions [3] - The labor market is stabilizing after a period of softening, with risks related to both inflation and employment having diminished [4] - Market reactions included fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching a historical high, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields experienced slight volatility [5]