the state atiowers® LONS 6 3 11 8 0 图 18 @ 昨夜国际贵金属市场上演惊险"过山车"：黄金与白银价格在冲破历史高位后迅速大幅回调。分析师指出，本轮"急涨急跌"是全球宏观叙事激烈博弈的直接结 果。 其深层驱动力在于"去美元化"趋势下，投资者对美元信用的疑虑促使资金涌向黄金白银等"硬通货"。同时，地缘政治风险与对美联储政策的复杂预期，共同 推升了市场的不确定性与投机情绪。白银因其在光伏、人工智能等关键工业领域不可替代的需求，叠加避险属性，波动尤为剧烈。 市场狂热已引发警示，监管机构与银行已采取措施提示风险。专家认为，长期支撑因素依然坚固，但短期技术性回调压力巨大。 wiri JF传奇: 黑檀镶嵌鲍鱼贝、蓝松石、银线、玫瑰金 and of the same of the same and in a mo || | 在这一宏观叙事驱动的波动新时代，JFLOWERS所代表的高级珠宝展现出更深层的"保值"内涵：它以黄金与顶级宝石为资产锚点，以独创设计与精湛工艺 注入艺术溢价，更以承载的情感与纪念意义构筑无价护城河。这种融合了硬核资产、永恒美学与精神寄托的价值，使其成为穿越经济周期、抵 ...

华见早安之声 市场概述 科技巨头财报前标普500五连阳、收创最高纪录，道指回落。医保巨头UnitedHealth跌近20%、领跌道指成分股。财报公布前，微软涨超2%、特斯拉跌1%； 增加240亿美元NAND制造投资的美光收涨超5%；和Meta签下光缆大单的康宁涨超15%。 美元创四年新低，跌超1%、创去年4月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅。日元三日累计涨4%，欧元和英镑创2021年来新高，离岸人民币近三年来首次盘 中涨破6.94。比特币盘中涨超2%，重新站上8.9万美元。 美消费者信心逊色，美债收益率刷新日低。 原油反弹，受中东局势影响，尾盘一度涨超3%。黄金连续六日收创历史新高，现货黄金一度涨超3%。白银震荡。 亚洲时段，A股午后拉升，三大股指集体收涨，算力产业链爆发，恒指涨超1%，紫金黄金涨超11%，沪银逆势涨7%。 要闻 中国12月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，全年同比增长0.6%，实现四年来首次增长。 美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，油价盘中涨3%，现货黄金涨超2%。特朗普：若遭暗杀，将把伊朗"从地球上抹去"！ 美元跌至四年低谷，特朗普不担心：美元表现出色，能找到合理水平。日本财务大臣：如有必 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 科技巨头财报前标普500五连阳、收创最高纪录，道指回落。医保巨头UnitedHealth跌近20%、领跌道指成分股。财报公布前，微软涨超2%、特斯拉跌1%； 增加240亿美元NAND制造投资的美光收涨超5%；和Meta签下光缆大单的康宁涨超15%。 美元创四年新低，跌超1%、创去年4月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅。日元三日累计涨4%，欧元和英镑创2021年来新高，离岸人民币近三年来首次盘 中涨破6.94。比特币盘中涨超2%，重新站上8.9万美元。 美消费者信心逊色，美债收益率刷新日低。 原油反弹，受中东局势影响，尾盘一度涨超3%。黄金连续六日收创历史新高，现货黄金一度涨超3%。白银震荡。 亚洲时段，A股午后拉升，三大股指集体收涨，算力产业链爆发，恒指涨超1%，紫金黄金涨超11%，沪银逆势涨7%。 要闻 中国12月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，全年同比增长0.6%，实现四年来首次增长。 美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，油价盘中涨3%，现货黄金涨超2%。特朗普：若遭暗杀，将把伊朗"从地球上抹去"！ 美元跌至四年低谷，特朗普 ...

2026年伊始，全球金融市场风起云涌，黄金市场更是波澜壮阔。在这样的大背景下，国内黄金零售市场也呈现出一番独特的景象。 一、足金饰品价格高企，品牌溢价凸显 二、国际金价震荡，零售端"易涨难跌" 国际现货黄金在经历了令人瞩目的上涨，一度突破4958美元/盎司的历史高位后，受到地缘政治紧张局势有所缓和的影响，金价回落至4800美元关口附近震 荡。国内市场上，上海黄金交易所AU9999的报价也在1100元/克附近波动。然而，这种国际金价的波动在零售端的体现却并不明显。各大金店的足金饰品挂 牌价格依然坚挺，维持在历史高位。这主要是因为饰品金的价格构成中，除了金价本身，还包含了高额的加工费和品牌溢价。相比于投资类金条，饰品金的 价格对国际金价的敏感度较低，呈现出"易涨难跌"的特点。因此，投资者需要警惕"价格锚点"的错位，理性看待饰品金的保值功能。 三、三大因素驱动黄金"长牛" 黄金此轮上涨并非无源之水，而是受到了全球宏观环境深刻变化的影响。其背后的核心驱动力主要体现在以下三个方面： 地缘政治风险激增，避险需求井喷：2026年初，全球安全形势复杂严峻，大西洋两岸贸易摩擦不断，中东、东欧地区冲突频发。在动荡的国际局势下，黄 ...

特朗普最近在达沃斯论坛上放话，说谁敢抛售美债就报复谁，这话听着挺狠，但背景是美国债务堆得像 山一样高，各国手里捏着的美债成了敏感点。 中国这边，手头美债只剩6830亿，已经是十几年最低了，继续减持的架势摆明了不打算再跟着美国玩这 个游戏。整个事闹得沸沸扬扬，表面上看是经济数据，骨子里是全球资金怎么流动的大问题。美国急 了，因为美债是它融资的命根子，中国减持等于在抽它的底气。 美债持有数据背后的信号 美国财政部刚出的报告显示，2025年11月，中国持有的美国国债规模降到6826亿美元，比10月份又少了 60亿。这是连续第九个月减持了，从2021年起，中国累计甩掉的美债超过5000亿。历史高点是2013年左 右的1.3万亿，现在差不多腰斩。 为什么减？不是一时兴起，而是外汇储备调整的一部分，转向更分散的资产，比如黄金。中国黄金储备 已经连续几个月增持，到2025年底达到7377万盎司。这步棋走得稳，避开了美债收益率波动大的坑。 这事反映出美元地位的尴尬，美国债务总额快40万亿了，每月利息支出上千亿，融资成本稍涨就顶不 住。中国减持等于在说，美债信用有风险，不想再当冤大头。 其他国家看中国这么干，也会想想自己的资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold reserves, surpassing the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset, indicating a strategic shift towards gold as a reliable asset amidst concerns over fiat currency stability [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Since 2022, central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, nearly double the average of the previous decade, with countries like China, Poland, and Turkey leading the charge [1]. - The proportion of gold purchases by central banks has risen from 14.8% in 2018 to 23% of total gold demand, indicating their role as a stabilizing force in the gold market [5][6]. - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold holdings for 14 months, demonstrating a long-term commitment to gold as a strategic asset [6]. Group 2: Changing Perception of Gold - The traditional pricing formula for gold, which relied on the strength of the dollar and real interest rates, has become less effective since 2022, as gold prices have risen even when U.S. Treasury yields increased [3][11]. - The new valuation logic for gold centers around the concept of "credit," particularly a reassessment of the trust in sovereign currencies, especially the U.S. dollar [3][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global gold ETF holdings reached a historical peak of 4,025 tons by the end of November 2025, with a significant inflow of $89 billion in 2025 alone, reflecting strong investor interest [6]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to a sustained demand for gold as a long-term hedge, reinforcing its status as a "safe-haven" asset [8][11]. Group 4: Silver Market Insights - Silver has experienced a remarkable price increase of nearly 150% in 2025, driven by both its financial attributes as "shadow gold" and its industrial demand in sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [9]. - The U.S. has elevated silver's strategic importance by designating it as a "critical mineral," further enhancing its market appeal [9]. Group 5: Price Trends - Gold prices have reached unprecedented levels, breaking through $4,000 for the first time on October 8, 2025, and climbing to $4,531 by December 24, 2025, with further increases into 2026 [11]. - The evolving role of gold is now seen as a core asset for pricing uncertainties in sovereign credit, moving beyond its traditional functions as an inflation hedge or crisis refuge [11].

文 任泽平 2024年以来，股市气贯长虹、振奋人心，黄金白银爆发史诗级行情，背后是什么原因？未来还能涨多高？ 我在2021年提出"乱世黄金"，2024年9月提出"信心牛"，2025年提出"拥抱康波周期，大宗商品元年"，均被验证。 这些判断均是基于20多年对宏观周期的分析框架，宏观周期不同于短周期、技术层面的噪音分析，是看长远、看本质的更高维层面，坚持长 期主义和理性精神的判断。 1、对股市和房市的看法 拥抱康波周期，不要成为老登。 慢牛，就是老登负责慢，小登负责牛。 有了对康波周期的判断，当前这个世界发生的一切就都得到了解释：科技革命，AI爆发，大宗商品元年，地缘动荡，全球放水。 房地产市场显著回升还需要再等等 ，现在主要是促进止跌回稳，重点发展新基建、新质生产力，打造新引擎。 不要错过康波周期，这是我们这代人的红利，拥抱信心牛、科技牛和大宗商品。 房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。10多年前，我提出行业分析框架。2015年判断"一线房价翻一倍"，2020年判断"房地产将 出现历史性大顶"。有同学听了我的建议，前几年卖出房子，买入黄金和科技股。 本人对房地产市场的判断，一直追求专业、理性、负责任。 2 ...

面对迈入第二个年头的特朗普2.0时代，德国人的焦虑，从未像现在这样真实。 《柏林日报》提到，在香港赤鱲角机场的一角，一项低调但战略意义巨大的工程，正在不动声色地推进之中。 看到各国央行都在抛售美元美债，德国媒体很焦虑：中国都开始自建金库了，我们还敢把黄金继续存在美国吗？ 有关注国际黄金走势的投资者应该都知道，在过去短短一年时间里，国际金价已经疯狂飙升70%。 这一年，全球央行都在做同一件事：抛美债，买黄金。 但在这一轮"去美元化"的狂潮中，德媒《柏林日报》注意到，中国正在香港紧锣密鼓地建设世界级的黄金金库和清算中心，将贵重金属紧握在自己手中。 而与此同时，作为全球第二大黄金储备国的德国，却有超过1200吨的黄金储备，依然躺在纽约的地下金库里。 中国工行正在这里建设一个庞大的贵金属储藏中心。根据最新的规划，这个金库将在几个月内正式投入运营。 但这仅仅是第一步。 香港特区政府已经计划，在2026年启动一个中央黄金清算系统的试运行。香港财政司司长陈茂波已经放出风声，他们将邀请上海黄金交易所参与其中。 长期以来，全球黄金交易的定价权和清算权，都高度集中在两个西方城市：伦敦和纽约。 但现在，通过建立自己的实物金库和清算 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic behind the continuous rise in gold prices reflects a wave of de-dollarization, with the U.S. government debt reaching $38 trillion and annual bond interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of government revenue [1] - Many central banks are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing their physical gold holdings, indicating a lack of trust in the dollar's credit [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, with a potential long-term target of $10,000 per ounce, despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to allocate about 20% of their portfolios to gold assets, including physical gold, paper gold, gold ETFs, gold-themed funds, or gold stocks, to effectively hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation risks [1] - The contrasting trends of rising gold prices and declining U.S. dollar index are expected to continue, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates more than twice this year, further accelerating the decline of the dollar [2] - A significant portion of international capital is expected to flow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as these markets remain undervalued compared to U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The stock market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, with a notable increase in equity investments as investors seek opportunities amidst changing economic conditions [3] - Approximately 50 trillion RMB in fixed deposits will mature in 2026, leading to a potential shift in investment preferences towards stocks or bonds based on risk tolerance [3] - The current market environment suggests that high-quality stocks and funds may become key drivers of wealth differentiation, as the real estate investment phase has ended [5]

Group 1: Economic Insights - The focus on the new Federal Reserve chair and interest rate cuts reflects a desire to lower global financing costs and stimulate capital expenditure and demand recovery, but the key factor is the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rather than the policy rate[5] - The expansion of the real economy is more closely related to medium- to long-term risk-free rates than to the central bank's benchmark rate[5] - Despite three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield only decreased by 36 basis points, indicating limited responsiveness of long-term rates to Fed actions[12][19] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The pricing logic of long-term U.S. Treasuries has shifted, now anchored by U.S. fiscal sustainability and the credibility of the dollar, rather than Fed policy[5][11] - The U.S. fiscal situation is under increasing strain, with interest payments on debt rising as a share of total expenditures, which could exacerbate fiscal contradictions[18][25] - The "impossible trinity" of fiscal balance, inflation, and monetary easing presents significant challenges for U.S. economic policy, especially in light of electoral pressures[18] Group 3: Market Implications - A weak dollar and high interest rates are likely to remain key macroeconomic assumptions in 2026, raising questions about the sustainability of capital expenditure growth[25] - If long-term Treasury yields remain high, it could hinder global capital expenditure expansion and create uncertainty in asset repricing[27] - The reliance on debt financing for AI investments may be challenged in a high-rate environment, questioning the viability of current growth trajectories[26]