投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月01日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨5.86%，铂金主力收涨3.96%，钯金主力收涨2.44%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果 共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能 性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个 月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12 月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利 空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。 ⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略： ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by a combination of short-term emotions and long-term trends, has led to a widespread interest in gold investment among the general public, with prices breaking through $4,200 per ounce and predictions reaching as high as $5,000 per ounce [1][2]. Short-term Drivers - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has increased from 50% to nearly 90%, making gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive as the dollar loses its appeal [2]. - Central banks globally have been aggressively purchasing gold, with over 1,000 tons expected to be bought in 2024, indicating a strategic move to hedge against uncertainty [5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5]. Long-term Trends - The underlying logic of gold investment has shifted from merely hedging against inflation and short-term risks to positioning gold as a new anchor for hard currency amid a restructuring global economic landscape [7]. - Major economies are burdened with significant debt, with the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130% and Japan surpassing 250%, leading to a reliance on currency devaluation to manage debt [7]. - Gold's intrinsic value, which does not depend on government promises, makes it a reliable store of value over time, unlike fiat currencies [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold production peaked in 2018, and new discoveries have been declining for five consecutive years, coupled with stricter environmental regulations and rising mining costs, limiting supply growth [9][10]. - Demand for gold is increasing not only for investment purposes but also in technology and industrial applications, reinforcing its value as a scarce resource [10]. Investment Signals - The article highlights three warning signals for potential market corrections: a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards a more hawkish approach, and a surge in retail investor enthusiasm for gold [11][14]. - The current gold investment trend is characterized by a speculative frenzy, with a cautionary note that such enthusiasm may lead to increased volatility and potential downturns [14][21]. Investment Strategies - For average investors, a steady approach such as monthly investments in gold ETFs is recommended to mitigate risks and avoid timing the market [15]. - New investors with low risk tolerance should consider gold ETFs or physical gold bars, balancing liquidity and credit risk [17]. - Aggressive investors interested in gold stocks or futures should limit their exposure to no more than 5% of their total assets due to the high volatility associated with these investments [19].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月1日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 963.28 | 1.33% | 342979 | 205325 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 乌总统泽连斯基签署法令，国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗夫将率代表团与美国谈判。代表团成员包 括总统办公室顾问、国防部情报总局局长等多位高级官员。 特朗普宣布终止拜登任内通过'自动签名笔'签署的所有文件（约92%）的效力，并威胁对拜登提出伪证 罪指控。此外，特朗普与委内瑞拉总统马杜罗通话讨论可能的美委领导人会晤，但目前尚无具体计划。 美国贸易代表办公室宣布，将针对中国技术转让和知识产权问题的301条款关税豁免延长至2026年11月 10日。原定豁免条款将于2025年11月29日到期。 美国总统特朗普与日本首相高市早苗通话，建议日本不要在台湾主权问题上挑衅北京。特朗普未提出具 体要求。 【机构观点】 大有期货：市场在货币政策宽松预期与地缘风险双重推动下整体走强，白银表现尤为亮眼。由于美国经 济数据疲软强化了市场对美联 ...

Group 1 - International silver prices have surged, with London spot silver reaching $57.86 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of over 98% this year [1] - COMEX silver futures peaked at $58.61 per ounce, achieving a historical high for three consecutive days [1] - Domestic silver futures also saw a rapid increase, rising nearly 8% in one session and marking five consecutive days of gains [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar and strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts have benefited precious metals, with a 70% probability of a rate cut in December [2] - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in silver prices [3] Group 3 - Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics industries is recovering, highlighting silver's industrial properties; silver is a key raw material in photovoltaic silver paste, with approximately 7-10 tons of silver used per GW of photovoltaic components [4] - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to exceed 500 GW by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15% [4] - The World Silver Council predicts an 8.2% year-on-year increase in global silver demand by 2025, with industrial demand accounting for 58% of total demand, a historical high [4] - A supply-demand gap of 95 million ounces is expected in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, with a cumulative gap of approximately 820 million ounces from 2021 to 2025 [4] Group 4 - Institutions are raising silver price forecasts, with UBS increasing its 2026 silver price prediction to $60 per ounce [4] - Bank of America has also raised its price forecasts for silver and other commodities [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, indicating the fundamental reason for the price surge is the scarcity of physical silver [4] Group 5 - Companies in the silver sector include: - Xinyi Silver Lead: Leading in silver reserves in Asia with 24,500 tons, ranking eighth globally [6] - Shengda Resources: Domestic industry leader with nearly 10,000 tons of silver reserves [6] - Yintai Gold: Significant silver resource reserves from its core mines [6] - Hunan Silver: Successfully transformed into a "mining and metallurgy integrated" enterprise with an annual smelting capacity of 1,300 tons, the largest in China [6] - Silver Nonferrous: The only multi-metal production base in China for copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver [6] - Hengbang Co.: Industry leader in silver produced as a byproduct of gold smelting [6]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have continued to rise, with notable increases in various brands. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price increased by 6 CNY per gram, reaching 1336 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores today [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has slightly narrowed to 104 CNY per gram, indicating a more stable market [1] - Detailed price listings show that several brands, including Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang, have also experienced minor increases, while others like Shanghai China Gold remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has risen by 10 CNY per gram, reflecting a significant variation among different brands [2] - Specific recycling prices include 948.50 CNY per gram for general gold, with other brands like Cai Zhi and Chow Sang Sang showing lower rates [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The international spot gold price has shown volatility, closing at 4229.27 USD per ounce, marking a 1.73% increase [4] - Current spot gold prices are reported at 4239.08 USD per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.23% [4] - Analysts predict that economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive more investors back to the gold market, supporting price increases [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to a surge in gold prices [4]

金价拉升发生在没有美国重要经济数据的周五，交易员说，缺乏经济指引让市场更依赖政策预期与情绪波动，这句话出自两位匿名交易员的即时反 馈，他们在现场电话连线中表达担忧 从时间轴上看，金价由预期推动，短线由情绪驱动，中线受制度与央行行为制约，这是一条不复杂却常被忽视的线路，政策预期、央行需求与机构 配置三者共同构成金价的中期支撑 制度层面的问题在于政策预期的模糊性与国际货币环境的联动性，面对美联储可能的降息信号，国内外资金如何配置成为制度与市场连续碰撞的场 景，这一点可在多家投行研究报告里找到重复论述 金价涨幅虽不算惊天，但中期预期发生改变，市场分析普遍认为美元走弱将削弱其中期上行动力，机构研究报告在当天午后发布的评述里详细列出 利率路径与货币政策的不确定性 央行与机构在黄金市场的角色被反复提及，观点认为央行购金与ETF增持会继续主导金价，本文查阅了中国黄金网的报告与多家国际评级机构发布 的持仓数据，呈现出的逻辑并非单一推动因素 走访几家黄金首饰门店时，店员向记者展示的是眼下的操作和库存调整，库存账单、进货单据与店员的电话记录构成他们应对价格变化的证据，店 员请求匿名以免影响生意 在交易所间，盘面上的买卖并非一直热 ...

周一（12月1日）亚洲时段，现货黄金继续保持涨势，一度刷新高点至4230.41美元/盎司。这种连续上 涨的格局并非偶然，而是受到了宏观经济环境和货币政策预期的双重支撑。投资者们将黄金视为对抗不 确定性的盾牌，尤其是在经济增速放缓的预期下，黄金的不孳息特性变得格外吸引人。周一的11月ISM 制造业PMI、周三的ISM服务业PMI、周四的周度失业救济申请，以及周五的10月核心PCE和密歇根大 学12月初步消费者信心调查，都将成为焦点。这些数据如果继续显示经济弱势，将进一步巩固降息预 期，推动金价向上突破。美元疲软走势放大黄金的吸引力与黄金上涨相呼应的是美元的持续走弱。上周 美元指数下跌0.69%，创下7月21日以来最大单周跌幅。这种势头直接源于市场对美联储降息的押注， 因为降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力。 地缘政治局势增添金价的不确定变量除了宏观经济因素，地缘政治风险也为黄金市场注入了额外的不确 定性。短期内，美乌代表团围绕俄乌"和平计划"展开的新一轮会谈备受关注。这次会谈于11月30日在美 国佛罗里达州举行，美方包括国务卿鲁比奥、中东问题特使威特科夫和总统特朗普的女婿库什纳，乌方 则由国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is focusing on precious metals, with significant price increases in silver and gold driven by global liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, international silver prices reached a historic high of $57.245 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 13% [1]. - London spot silver also surpassed $56.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4% [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices approached historical highs, indicating a broad rally in precious metals [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - The A-share precious metals sector saw a broad increase on the following Monday, with Yintai Gold rising by 6.21% and other key stocks like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold increasing by over 4% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened with a 3.8% increase, reaching the 6500 yuan per kilogram mark, while the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to stabilize above 480 yuan per gram [3]. - The surge in international prices ignited domestic investor sentiment, leading to a doubling of trading volume in precious metal ETFs [3]. Group 3: Driving Factors - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the strengthened expectation of global liquidity easing, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 65% to 82% [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East and supply chain concerns, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the price increases [4]. - The recovery in industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, is supporting silver prices, with predictions of a 15% increase in silver demand from the solar sector by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Optimistic views, represented by Goldman Sachs, have raised the 12-month price targets for gold to $4500 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and declining real interest rates [5]. - Cautious perspectives from firms like Zhao Shang Securities warn of potential short-term volatility risks, suggesting that precious metal prices may have already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to consider diversifying through precious metal ETFs and funds, while long-term investors should focus on gold's asset allocation value and adjust silver holdings based on industrial demand data [5].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 1 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡运行 可逢低轻仓试多远月合约 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂钯价格上周五小幅回调，今晨注意跳空高开风险 18 | | 铜：美铜高升水，非美地区供应担忧加剧 18 | | 氧化铝：减产难落地 氧化铝持续承压 19 | | 电解铝：宏微观共振 铝价偏强运行 20 | | 铸造铝合金：铝合金随铝价偏强运行 21 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 22 | | 铅：关注冶炼成本支撑有效性 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，短期多单及时兑现收益 25 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，但有回落风险 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 26 | | 锡：刚果（金）矿端供应扰动，锡价冲高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that amid increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the medium to long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue growing [1] - The supply side of copper is under pressure while the demand side is continuously increasing, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum [1] - The global easing cycle has opened up macroeconomic space, indicating that industrial metal prices still possess upward momentum [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]