地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 8.95%，报 67.23 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约跌 8.37%，报 69.16 美元/桶。美国总统特朗普对伊朗提前通知打击 美军基地表示感谢，并称是时候实现和平了，市场对中东局势的担忧缓解。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3384.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货涨0.09%报36.05美元/盎司。中东地缘政治紧张局势升级， 伊朗与美国冲突加剧市场避险需求。美联储官员释放鸽派信号，美元走弱为金 价提供支撑。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.11%报 2686.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 1.67%报 2592.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.63%报 9694.50 美元/吨。铜价维持震 荡，全球铜精矿供应偏紧，新能源汽车需求强劲但空调行业季节性转弱。宏观 环境压制市场，美联储维持限制性利率政策，国际贸易博弈成为焦点。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯 ...

文字早评 2025/06/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.65%，创指+0.39%，科创 50+0.38%，北证 50+1.54%，上证 50+0.41%，沪深 300+0.29%， 中证 500+0.61%，中证 1000+1.31%，中证 2000+1.94%，万得微盘+2.54%。两市合计成交 11226 亿，较上 一日+549 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在美国 22 日空袭伊朗三处核设施后，伊朗议会迅速通过"关闭霍尔木兹海峡"的提案，该海峡是海 湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，是全球最重要的石油 "咽喉要道"之一。 2、美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK 海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求这些企业今后需逐 案申请许可证。 3、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办 关于银行资本的会议。 资金面：融资额-82.33 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.66bp 至 2.8756%，十年期国债利率-0.20bp 至 1.6387%，信用利差 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-24 贵金属 沪金涨 0.56 %，报 786.10 元/克，沪银涨 0.89 %，报 8809.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.86 %， 报 3365.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.86 %，报 35.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.16 ； 市场展望： 美联储票委表态鸽派，同时海外地缘政治风险释放，宏观环境将驱动白银价格表现强于黄金。 昨夜美联储官员表态连续鸽派，美联储理事鲍曼表示若通胀压力得到控制，她支持在下一次议 息会议中尽快降低利率，令其更接近中性水平，并维持相对健康的劳动力市场。芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比表示过去三个月并未出现太多的通货膨胀，若贸易政策的影响消退，应当继续进行 降息。联储宽松货币政策预期的释放将驱动银价表现强势。 海外地缘政治风险方面，今晨美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停 火。避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 海外风险事件逐步消退的同时，联储持续释放宽松的货币政策预期，CME 利率观测器显示，市 场预期美联储下半年将分别在 9 月以及 10 月议息会议中进行 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-24 原油冲高回落，PX依然偏紧 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN250美元/吨(环比变动-11.63美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停 车，沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货 源仍较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 264 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费383元/吨（环比变动-30元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费360元/吨（环比变动+18元/吨），伴随大量仓单注销主流供应商排货，现货市场流通性偏紧的情况 有所缓解，PTA自身基本面支撑有所转弱，关注伊以局势对成本的影响和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率92.0%（环比+1.1%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺，原料价格上涨后集中补库下长丝库存下降，后续价格高位震荡库存压力可能提升，继续关注 聚酯库存变化，短期长丝负荷预计还能维持；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方 面，万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market for PX is supported in the short - term due to geopolitical factors and supply - demand tightness, but may be dragged down by downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are expected to be affected by similar factors, and their prices will fluctuate with the cost side. For polyolefins, PP is expected to be under pressure while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals. PVC and caustic soda have their own supply - demand contradictions, and the current market trends are complex. Urea's market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. Methanol's supply and demand situation is complex with uncertainties in overseas supply and weak domestic demand. Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases and demand decreases [2][25][34][39][43][46][53]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On June 23, most polyester product prices showed minor changes. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 0.7%, and its cash - flow decreased by 59.7%. PX - related prices also had fluctuations, with CFR China PX down by 0.1%. The prices of upstream products like Brent crude oil (August) decreased by 8.39% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and polyester comprehensive开工率 decreased, while MEG comprehensive开工率 increased. For example, PTA开工率 decreased from 82.6% to 79.1%, and MEG comprehensive开工率 increased from 66.3% to 70.3% [2]. - **Market Outlook**: PX is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09, observing the PX9 - 1 spread, and reducing positions in the PX - SC spread narrowing strategy at low levels [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, L2601 and PP2601 closing prices increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 increasing by 10.29% [25]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PP装置开工率 increased, while PE装置开工率 decreased slightly. PP inventory increased, and PE inventory decreased. For example, PP企业 inventory increased by 4.52%, and PE企业 inventory decreased by 1.83% [25]. - **Market Outlook**: PP is expected to be bearish in the short - term due to high production and poor marginal profits, while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals but is still affected by the off - season [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, the prices of PVC and caustic soda products mostly decreased. For example, the price of华东电石法PVC decreased by 0.6%, and the price of山东32%液碱折百价 decreased by 3.7% [30]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed slightly. The inventory of caustic soda in some areas decreased, but the inventory of downstream alumina plants increased [32][34]. - **Market Outlook**: The current price of caustic soda is still searching for a bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. PVC may have short - term price increases but is limited by long - term supply - demand contradictions, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, most urea futures prices decreased. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.35%. Spot prices in different regions also showed declines, such as the price of Shandong (small - particle) urea decreasing by 3.85% [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the开工 rate of production enterprises decreased. The inventory in factories decreased, while the inventory in ports increased. Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export volume has decreased significantly [39]. - **Market Outlook**: The urea market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. It is not recommended to go long at low levels prematurely, but opportunities in the option side with narrowing volatility can be grasped [39]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, crude oil prices decreased significantly. Brent decreased by 8.39%, and WTI decreased by 7.22%. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreasing by 50.34% [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. In the short - term, the market volatility may decrease, but geopolitical risks still exist. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clearer [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, methanol futures prices decreased. MA2601 decreased by 0.76%, and MA2509 decreased by 0.99%. The inventory of methanol decreased, and the开工 rate of some downstream industries also decreased [46]. - **Market Outlook**: The overseas supply of methanol is uncertain, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the development of the Iranian situation and the actual parking rhythm of MTO [46]. Benzene - Ethylene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On June 23, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil (August) decreased. The prices of pure benzene and ethylene - related products also had minor changes, with pure benzene - stone naphtha increasing by 0.7% [50]. - **Benzene - Ethylene Prices and Inventory**: The price of benzene - ethylene decreased slightly, and its inventory decreased. The profit of benzene - ethylene integration decreased significantly by 76.8% [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases from upstream device resumptions and profit - driven production increases, and demand decreases from weak downstream profits and uncertain terminal demand [53].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $2400 per ounce mark, is attributed to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, influenced by declining inflation data and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, down 1.8 percentage points from last year's peak, while the GDPNow model predicts a 1.9% growth rate for Q2 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has risen to 92%, with expectations of a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury's real yield has decreased from 2.5% in March to 1.8%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, particularly threats from Iran, have activated safe-haven buying in gold, with spot gold premiums soaring by 40% and physical gold demand in the Middle East increasing by 35% year-on-year [4]. - The current geopolitical climate mirrors the market response during the 2018 U.S.-Iran standoff, where gold prices rose significantly [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Global investors have reduced their equity allocations to the lowest level since May 2020, while gold holdings have reached a historical high of 12% [4]. - The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings surpassed 1300 tons, a 230-ton increase since the beginning of the year, indicating strong institutional interest [5]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's price breakout at $2400 is significant, with a 2.3% daily increase and trading volume significantly above the 30-day average [6]. Group 4: Cross-Market Interactions - On the day gold surpassed $2400, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points, indicating a strong negative correlation with gold [7]. - This cross-market interaction suggests a reinforcing safe-haven chain, contrasting with market reactions during previous rate hikes [7]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The breakthrough of the $2400 mark signifies a redefinition of asset pricing logic in the post-easing era, highlighting gold's strategic value amid monetary policy shifts and geopolitical risks [9]. - Historical precedents indicate that significant price movements in gold often precede new asset allocation trends, as seen after the 2008 financial crisis [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry on June 24, 2025, provided by the macro - financial team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Analysis Intraday Market - Due to the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, geopolitical risks pushed the price of London gold up to around $3400 per ounce during the Asian session on the 23rd. But it later fell back to around $3350 per ounce. The Trump 2.0 new policy boosts the safe - haven demand for gold [4] Domestic Market Data - Shanghai Gold Index closed at 783.42 with a 0.36% increase; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8794 with a 1.23% increase; Gold T + D closed at 777.60 with a 0.12% increase; Silver T + D closed at 8730 with a 0.77% increase [5] Mid - line Market - In April, multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to exceed $3500 per ounce. Although the price has回调 from its high, the mid - level upward trend remains intact. Long - and mid - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but short - term price surges lead to increased volatility [5] Group 5: Main Macro Events/Data - The US military destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. European foreign ministers' attempt to prevent conflict escalation had little success [17] - Russian President Putin's remarks on Ukraine were condemned by the Ukrainian foreign minister [17] - The Fed's report shows that US inflation is somewhat high, the job market is stable, and the impact of Trump's tariff increase is uncertain [17] - The US Commerce Department may revoke the authorization of global chip manufacturers in China, and Japan canceled a high - level meeting with the US [18]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 当日行情： ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,892.8 | 1,875.0 | 1,883.0 | 1, ...

交易看起来确实简单，表面上，它不需要你风吹雨淋、低三下四的应酬，不用溜须拍马，不用拼酒伤 胃，不用忍气吞声，只需要在键盘上，敲动几个按钮"买"、"卖"，一笔生意马上就达成，钱迅速到账， 还不欠账，利润到手，多轻松。可是，等到交易做了一段时间，渐渐发现：市场老跟自己过不去，买了 就跌，卖了就涨，自己成了反向指标，怎么做都亏，怎么努力，怎么拼搏，尝试了各种方法，仍然无法 摆脱亏损的泥潭，发现交易如此之艰难。而这时候，你可能只是缺少一位负责任的老师、一个专业分析 团队为你的投资之路保驾护航，指明方向！下面请看作者金晟富【文末+本人，每日实时分享现价单及 操作策略】为各位投资朋友带来的今日财富机会！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二(6月24日)亚市早盘，现货黄金加速下滑，伊朗官员刚刚证实，伊朗已接受美国总统特朗普提出的 与以色列停火方案。美国彭博社称，黄金因避险需求减弱而回落。现货黄金价格目前跌至3333美元/盎 司附近，日内暴跌逾35美元。国际油价更是延续周一跌势，一度大跌6%至64.38美元/桶附近，为近两 周新低。除了地缘政治因素，美联储的货币政策动向对黄金价格同样至关重要。6 ...