Market Overview - US stock market closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indices recording weekly declines as the market continues to assess trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 285.30 points, a decrease of 0.58%, closing at 49,098.71 points; the Nasdaq rose by 65.22 points, an increase of 0.28%, closing at 23,501.24 points; the S&P 500 gained 2.26 points, up 0.03%, closing at 6,915.61 points [3][11] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Dow Jones dropped 0.53%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.06% [4][12] - Nvidia and AMD stocks rose by 1.5% and 2.3% respectively, following reports that Nvidia's CEO plans to visit China in the coming days [4][12] - Intel's stock plummeted by 17% after the company provided a disappointing first-quarter earnings outlook [4][12] Geopolitical Factors - The market experienced significant declines earlier in the week due to President Trump's strong remarks regarding Greenland and threats to increase tariffs on eight European countries, leading to heightened risk aversion and a flight from US assets [4][12] - A rebound in the indices occurred on Wednesday after Trump canceled the tariff threat, which eased investor concerns regarding trade tensions and geopolitical risks [4][12] Economic Data - The preliminary composite output index for January was reported at 52.8, up from 52.7 in December [5][6][13] - The preliminary services business activity index for January was reported at 52.5, below the analyst estimate of 52.9 [7][13] - The preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index for January was reported at 51.9, also below the analyst estimate of 52 [8][13] - The final consumer confidence index for January from the University of Michigan was reported at 56.4, up from the preliminary value of 54.0 and the previous month’s value of 52.9 [8][13]

新近报道显示，特朗普政府正采取多管齐下的策略遏制伊朗在中东地区的影响力，国际原油闻讯加速上行，延续一个月来每周涨势。 继周四晚美国总统特朗普宣布调集美军舰队前往伊朗后，本周五又传出美国威胁限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元收入的消息，据称美方企图迫使伊拉克 新政府排除伊朗支持的武装团体。这一系列举措推动国际原油期货价格周五全天保持涨势。美股早盘刷新日高时，美国WTI原油靠近61.30美元，布伦 特原油涨至66美元上方，日内分别涨约3.2%和3.1%。 据媒体周五的爆料，美国驻巴格达临时代办Joshua Harris过去两个月反复警告伊拉克政界高层领袖，如果伊朗支持的武装团体出现在新政府中，美方 将采取惩罚措施，包括限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元的现金供应等经济措施。换言之，美国可能对伊拉克实施制裁，制裁对象可能包括对伊拉克至关 重要的石油收入。还有媒体援引消息人士称，这是特朗普遏制伊朗在伊拉克影响力运动中"最严厉的例证"。 此前，特朗普已重新向伊朗高级领导层发出动用军事力量的威胁。据新华社报道，美东时间22日周四，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调 集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。其他媒体获悉，一支美国海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that euro-denominated credit assets remained relatively stable this week, unaffected by geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe regarding Greenland's sovereignty [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Euro investment-grade and high-yield bond credit spreads maintained near historical lows in the secondary market [1] - Global markets have calmed following President Trump's retraction of comments about acquiring Greenland and withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe [1]

黄金牛市还能走多远？20260122 摘要 黄金市场上涨受美联储宽松周期、美元信誉下降和地缘政治风险上升三 大因素驱动，其中美联储降息为基本面利好，美元信誉受高赤字和债务 扩张影响，地缘风险推升避险需求。 尽管黄金价格大幅上涨，但需警惕长期熊市风险，历史数据显示黄金熊 市持续时间较长。当前金价接近 5,000 美元/盎司，模型显示存在高估， 关键变量变化可能引发调整。 评估金价走势需关注美债利率与通胀调整后的真实金价关系，以及央行 购金量、美国赤字率等经济变量。模型曾预测 2025 年底金价达 5,000 美元/盎司，目前已基本兑现，需警惕短期过度高估。 当前黄金价格可能存在估值偏高甚至泡沫现象，未来波动性可能增加， 若出现不利风险因素，可能出现明显回调。3,000 美元左右的黄金价格 是合理的。 2026 年第一季度美国经济存在暂时性过热风险，可能导致美联储放缓 降息节奏，对黄金市场产生阶段性冲击。投资者可能转向其他资产，从 而减少对黄金的需求。 黄金市场的上涨主要受到以下三个因素的推动： Q&A 黄金市场在过去三年的表现如何？ 本轮黄金牛市始于 2022 年第四季度，当时国际金价约为 1,600 美元每盎 ...

美国股市近期经历显著资金外流，显示出地缘政治风险对投资者情绪的直接冲击。在特朗普总统因格陵 兰岛问题威胁对部分欧洲国家征收关税的背景下，市场避险情绪升温，导致资本从美国资产中撤离。 据美国银行引用的EPFR Global数据显示，在截至1月21日的一周内，美股基金遭受了近170亿美元的资 金净流出。这一数据涵盖了特朗普发出关税威胁后的市场反应期，凸显了政策不确定性对资本流动的即 时影响。 与此同时，资金流向发生明显分化，欧洲和日本市场成为资金避风港。欧洲股票基金迎来了自6月以来 最强劲的六周资金流入，而日本基金则录得自10月以来最大的单周资金增量。这种跨市场的资金轮动反 映出投资者在全球范围内重新配置资产，以规避美国政策波动带来的风险。 尽管市场随后因关税威胁解除而企稳回升，但此次资金大幅出逃仍为市场敲响警钟。在美联储下周即将 召开会议之际，难以预测的美国决策制定过程持续对美元构成压力，市场参与者正密切关注政策走向对 经济基本面的潜在扰动。 受此消息提振，加之数据显示美国经济基础依然稳固，美国股市随后收复了当周的大部分失地。投资者 经历了一场由政策反复引发的震荡，从恐慌性抛售迅速转向重新评估。 然而，尽管股市 ...

Group 1 - The initial earnings reports from U.S. companies indicate a cautious outlook due to geopolitical uncertainties affecting travel demand and consumer spending [1] - Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have expressed concerns about the impact of global tensions on their profitability and travel demand [1] - Consumer goods companies like Procter & Gamble and McCormick report that consumers are maintaining a cautious spending attitude, reflecting broader economic uncertainties [1] Group 2 - 3M's earnings outlook fell short of market expectations, leading to its largest single-day stock drop since April of the previous year, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in the consumer and automotive sectors [1] - Industrial distribution and logistics companies, such as Fastenal and JB Hunt, reported earnings below expectations, indicating continued pressure in the industrial sector [1] - Despite a generally positive economic backdrop, with 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, corporate management's pessimistic statements contrast sharply with these indicators [1] Group 3 - The political landscape and trade policy changes under the Trump administration are complicating corporate planning, as CEOs face challenges in forecasting annual performance [2] - McCormick's CEO noted that inflation, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties are exerting pressure on the company's core market, contributing to disappointing earnings forecasts [2] - Procter & Gamble anticipates sales growth in the next six months despite external disruptions, including the impact of government shutdowns on low-income consumer purchasing power [3] Group 4 - Airlines like United Airlines are experiencing significant negative impacts on ticket bookings due to military actions in Venezuela, which could disrupt their previously positive operational outlook [3] - The Trump administration's policy measures, such as high tax refunds and potential stimulus, may provide short-term relief for consumers, potentially boosting consumer confidence [4] - The focus on consumer relief initiatives, including credit card interest rate caps, is part of a broader strategy to support low-income households and stimulate spending [4]

2026.01. 23 本文字数：2079，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈玺宇 封图 | 欧洲工商管理学院（INSEAD）院长韦洛索 全球经济不确定性上升、地缘政治风险反复显现，中国企业的出海路径也在发生新的变化——无论是 在欧洲市场快速发展的电动车，还是在东南亚、中东等地区加速布局的科技企业。 达沃斯论坛期间，第一财经记者专访了欧洲工商管理学院（INSEAD）院长弗朗西斯科·韦洛索 （Francisco Veloso）。作为长期观察全球企业战略与管理实践的学者，韦洛索在达沃斯与多位国 际工商界领袖保持密集交流，对中国企业出海的趋势变化、优势与挑战有着清晰判断。 在专访中，韦洛索从企业能力、创新与规模、人工智能（AI）以及地缘政治风险等多个维度，梳理了 中国企业出海所面临的新环境，并就不确定性上升背景下如何继续前行，分享了他的观察。 第一财经：你对今年达沃斯论坛的整体氛围有何感受？ 韦洛索： 地缘政治无疑是一个非常突出的主题，但与此同时，AI革命同样不可忽视。我担心的一点 是，不确定性可能让一些企业陷入观望，从而停滞决策。但现实是，技术变革的节奏非常快，企业无 法停下脚步，即便决策并不完美，也必须 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues its strong performance, with stocks like Huafeng Aluminum, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, indicating robust market interest [1] - The non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), saw a maximum intraday increase of 3.55%, closing up 3.37%, with a significant net subscription of 55.2 million units, breaking its previous listing high [1] - Geopolitical risks are rising, contributing to increased safe-haven demand and pushing gold prices to a historical high of $4,950 per ounce, with domestic gold jewelry prices reaching 1,500 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong due to several factors, including ongoing U.S. fiscal risks, strong global central bank demand for gold, and the expectation of continued interest rate cuts in the U.S. through 2026 [3] - The strong performance of non-ferrous metals is attributed to macro-financial policies and structural changes in supply and demand, particularly driven by emerging demands in AI and new energy sectors [3] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance [3]

类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 格陵兰岛风波迷雾重重 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国达成 2025 年经济增长目标 2025 年中国实际 GDP 同比增长 5%，持平于 2024 年且顺利完成年度经济增长 目标；2025 年名义 GDP 略超过 140 万亿元，同比增长 4%，为 2021 年以来的最低 值；GDP 平减系数同比萎缩 0.96%，萎缩程度较 2024 年扩大 0.16 个百分点。2025 年最终消费拉动 GDP 同比 2.6 个百分点，拉动率较 2024 年提升 0.37 个百分 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching a historic high of $4,900 per ounce and COMEX gold futures touching $4,970, marking an almost 15% increase year-to-date [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also rose significantly, with many brands exceeding 1,500 yuan per gram, and some reaching 1,548 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 50 yuan [1] - The traditional peak season for gold jewelry sales before the Lunar New Year has seen a decline in consumer purchasing due to high gold prices, with some stores reporting a nearly 20% decrease in sales compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - Major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chao Hong Ji have adjusted prices for certain gold jewelry items, with increases ranging from 200 yuan to 1,500 yuan since January 6 [2] - The pricing model in the gold jewelry industry is primarily divided into "one-price" and "weight plus labor cost," with the former gaining popularity as consumers prefer the design and stability it offers despite higher prices [2] - The shift towards "one-price" gold jewelry is leading many companies to increase the proportion of such products in their offerings, as traditional pricing models are heavily influenced by fluctuations in gold raw material prices [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, have prompted institutions to raise their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 gold target from $4,900 to $5,400 [3] - The diversification of private sector investments in gold as a hedge against global macroeconomic uncertainties is expected to support stable "hedge positions" through 2026, alongside central bank purchases averaging 60 tons per month [3] - The increase in gold ETF holdings due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts is identified as a core driver for rising gold prices [3]