Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the key points from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related documents, highlighting economic growth, technological advancement, and the importance of domestic demand and income growth. Group 1: "15th Five-Year Plan" Key Information - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [3][4] - Specific industries are identified for consolidation and enhancement, including mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and emerging strategic industries like new energy and quantum technology [3][4] - The plan emphasizes "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies across various sectors [3] - Domestic demand is prioritized with a focus on increasing public service spending and government investment in livelihood projects [3] - New approaches to resident income include promoting collective wage negotiations and improving minimum wage adjustment mechanisms [3] Group 2: Auxiliary Documents Key Information - The "Guidance Questions" document outlines a target for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plans [5][26] - Financial and capital market reforms are highlighted, including the restructuring of small financial institutions and the completion of financial legislation [5][6] - The real estate sector is addressed with measures to promote the sale of existing homes and regulate pre-sale fund supervision [7] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to consolidate and avoid redundant construction, while also improving the wage determination mechanism [7] Group 3: Recent Noteworthy Events - The recent meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents resulted in agreements to adjust tariffs and suspend certain export controls, which may impact trade dynamics [8][24] - The introduction of new financial regulations aims to enhance the performance of investment funds and restrict certain financial practices [9][29] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported on local government debt limits and the allocation of funds to support various projects, emphasizing investment in digital economy and infrastructure [9][22]

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has achieved significant milestones under the paradigm of "scale first, policy driven," with RMB's share in international payments stabilizing at around 4.5%, making it the fourth largest payment currency globally, and its share in global foreign exchange reserves rising to approximately 2.5% [1][2] Group 1: Structural Shortcomings - There are two main structural shortcomings in RMB internationalization: a disconnect between macro indicators and the daily experiences of ordinary citizens, and a singular focus of the offshore market primarily on corporate trade settlements, which does not support a diversified ecosystem rooted in people's livelihoods [1][2] Group 2: Proposed "Scene Revolution" - A new path termed "scene revolution" is proposed, focusing on leveraging the offshore financial market as an innovation hub while addressing micro-level needs such as cross-border consumption, education, retirement, and financial management for individuals, as well as pain points for small and medium-sized enterprises in cross-border e-commerce and supply chain trade [2][3] Group 3: Offshore Market Development - The offshore market can create a "futures + spot + derivatives" scheme focused on people's livelihoods, using Shanghai crude oil futures as a core to attract Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to participate in pricing and settlement in RMB, thus forming a closed loop of "RMB pricing—settlement—livelihood circulation—risk hedging" [3][4] Group 4: RMB Reflow Mechanism - A "diversified RMB reflow mechanism" is suggested, where RMB accumulated from trade can be invested in offshore RMB bonds issued in Hong Kong, funding livelihood infrastructure along the Belt and Road, and allowing domestic residents to invest in offshore RMB wealth management products, creating a virtuous cycle of "trade gains—offshore accumulation—investment reflow" [3][4] Group 5: Risk Management Tools - The offshore market can develop standardized, small-denomination forward and options products to lower the barriers for hedging against exchange rate risks, and financial institutions can customize hedging solutions for small businesses based on cross-border e-commerce transaction data [4] Group 6: Vision for RMB Internationalization - The ultimate vision for RMB internationalization is not to recreate monetary hegemony but to create financial public goods that serve the betterment of human life, allowing citizens to navigate their global lives more comfortably and businesses to operate more efficiently worldwide [4]

Macro Dynamics - The "upgraded" China-Europe export control dialogue was held in Brussels, focusing on mutual concerns in export control and agreeing to maintain communication to stabilize supply chains [2] - The National Data Bureau announced support for private enterprises to lead standard formulation in the data sector, with over 120 national standards published during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Financial Institutions - China Construction Bank announced the suspension of certain gold-related services due to market volatility, effective from November 3, 2025 [8] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and actual GDP growth, predicting annual export growth of 5-6% and adjusting the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [9] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55% on November 3, with significant activity in sectors such as photovoltaic and thorium-based molten salt stocks [11] - The total margin balance in the two markets decreased by 12.28 billion yuan as of October 31 [12] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.97%, with notable movements in technology and automotive stocks [13] Company Dynamics - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the AI industry faces challenges not from excess computing power but from insufficient electricity to support GPU operations [14] - Arctech responded to recent price speculation in the polysilicon sector, stating that there is currently an oversupply and no plans for self-built or acquired polysilicon production lines [15] - Baihehua's actual controller, Chen Lirong, mistakenly reduced his holdings by 160,000 shares but has since repurchased the same amount to correct the error [16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, which is aimed at enhancing monetary cooperation, facilitating bilateral trade, and maintaining financial market stability [3][4]. Bilateral Currency Cooperation - The renewed currency swap agreement has a scale of 400 billion RMB and 70 trillion KRW, valid for five years with the possibility of extension [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed effective bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries and regions, with a total swap scale exceeding 4.5 trillion RMB [6]. RMB Internationalization Progress - The internationalization of the RMB has accelerated, with significant achievements in cross-border trade settlement and financial market openness [6]. - As of June 30, 2025, foreign entities held RMB financial assets totaling 10.4 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [6]. Offshore RMB Market Development - The offshore RMB market has seen steady growth, with RMB deposits in major offshore markets reaching approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high [7]. - In 2024, the issuance of offshore RMB bonds amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% [7]. Future Trends in RMB Internationalization - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive approach to RMB internationalization, aiming to enhance capital account openness and establish a self-controlled cross-border payment system [9]. - The PBOC plans to streamline policies related to cross-border and offshore RMB financial services, promoting RMB settlement for overseas projects and encouraging more entities to issue RMB-denominated securities [9][10]. Financial Market Opening - The report outlines a strategy for orderly financial market opening, supporting qualified foreign institutions' participation in financial business trials and optimizing channels for domestic institutions to invest abroad [10]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the offshore RMB liquidity supply and support the issuance and trading of RMB assets in overseas markets [10][11]. Cross-Border Payment System Enhancement - The PBOC is focused on building a self-controlled cross-border payment system, expanding the coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to provide efficient RMB clearing services [11]. - The report also highlights the need for improved regulatory frameworks for cross-border RMB business to ensure risk prevention while promoting internationalization [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut expectations persist, and factors such as trade uncertainty, weak ADP employment, US debt expansion, de - dollarization, and geopolitical conflicts boost gold's safe - haven demand. The "official buying spree" and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar index make gold's strategic allocation value stable [3]. - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The December contract has reached its peak, and the price will be dominated by the spot market. In November, the market's focus is on the January contract. If the rate - cut expectation strengthens in December, the January contract may have the momentum to hit the previous high; otherwise, the probability of high - level consolidation increases [17]. - Last week, Shanghai aluminum prices were strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamentals. After macro events, the market may seek new trading logic. Overseas disturbances may be more frequent than domestic ones, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level in the short term, testing the 21,500 resistance level. Alumina prices may be weak in the short term due to oversupply, and attention should be paid to cost - profit and production - adjustment news [37]. - Currently, the smelting end is fiercely competing for zinc ore. The price of overseas ore has no advantage, and the domestic ore increment is small, causing the TC in November to drop significantly again. The smelting end's willingness to cut or stop production in November has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [59]. - In the nickel industry chain, Indonesia's new regulations on 2026 quota applications for nickel ore are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak production and consumption season, with tight market circulation and low overall inventory levels. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered due to weak downstream demand. Stainless steel prices have been oscillating weakly, and many large steel mills have announced production cuts for the 200 - series. The Fed's rate - cut decision and Sino - US friendly talks bring positive signals [75]. - Fundamentally, the supply of tin is weaker than demand, with a decline in Yunnan's production and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. The short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [89]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply may increase in October due to the release of salt - lake production capacity and the possible resumption of "Jianxiawo". The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase before the end of the year. Overall, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an oscillating and strengthening trend [105]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high supply - side pressure and a downward trend in downstream operating rates. The polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with weak fundamentals. The polysilicon futures have high volatility and high risks [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and various factors support gold prices. The US dollar index has a long - term weakening trend, and gold has a stable strategic allocation value [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and US dollar index relationships, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventory data [4][8][12][16] Copper - **Price and Market Conditions**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated, and the December contract reached its peak. The January contract's trend depends on the rate - cut expectation in December. The current copper import profit is - 871.53 yuan/ton, and the copper concentrate TC is - 42.26 dollars/ton [17][28]. - **Data Charts**: Include copper futures and spot prices, inventory data, import and export profit data, and price difference data [18][23][33][35] Aluminum - **Price and Market Conditions**: Shanghai aluminum prices were strong last week and will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina prices may be weak due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support [37][38]. - **Data Charts**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, price difference data, inventory data, and import and export profit data [38][40][45][54] Zinc - **Price and Market Conditions**: The smelting end's willingness to cut production has increased in November due to ore supply issues. If demand is stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices [59]. - **Data Charts**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, price difference data, and inventory data [60][67][72] Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas are stricter. The new energy sector has tight circulation, nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel prices are oscillating weakly. Many large steel mills have announced production cuts [75]. - **Data Charts**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, nickel ore prices, and downstream profit data [76][80][84] Tin - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data Charts**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and import and export profit data [90][96][100] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of lithium carbonate may increase, and the demand from downstream enterprises is expected to rise. The futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen [105]. - **Data Charts**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data, and price difference data [106][111][115] Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with high risks [118]. - **Data Charts**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon prices, production, inventory, and cost data [119][124][131][135]

高盛上调对中国出口增速预期 高盛研究团队预测，人民币国际化可能在未来几年显著加速。预计随着高新技术制造业竞争力提升以及 人民币国际化加速，中国股市将表现领先，人民币对美元汇率将会升值。到2028年中国经常账户顺差与 国内生产总值(GDP)之比将接近5%，考虑到中国经济的庞大体量，这将是相对于全球GDP的历史新高。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 上述报告还认为，10月份发生的两个重大事件——《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》对外公布和中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成成果共识，发出的信号方向一致，即中国 将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力并进一步提振出口。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 由此，高盛研究团队上调了对中国出口增速的预期，预计未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至6%，获 得更多全球市场份额并推动整体经济扩张。(完) 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 中新社北京11月3日电 (记者 夏宾)中新社记者3日从高盛集团获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, which is set at 400 billion RMB/70 trillion KRW for five years, aimed at enhancing monetary cooperation and stabilizing financial markets [1] Group 1: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement - The renewed agreement will facilitate trade and investment between China and South Korea, providing liquidity support to financial markets [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries, with 32 active agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] Group 2: Strengthening RMB Financing Functions - By the end of June 2025, foreign entities held RMB financial assets in China totaling 10.4 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The offshore RMB market is developing steadily, with RMB deposits in major offshore markets reaching approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high [3] Group 3: Policy and Market Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to streamline policies related to cross-border RMB financial services and promote RMB settlement for overseas projects [4] Group 4: Financial Market Opening - The report encourages foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and supports the orderly investment of foreign entities in China's financial markets [5] - The PBOC plans to enhance the offshore RMB market by increasing liquidity supply and diversifying RMB financial products [5] Group 5: Cross-Border Payment System - The PBOC is working on building a self-controlled cross-border payment system to improve the efficiency of RMB clearing services [6] - There is a focus on enhancing regulatory frameworks for cross-border RMB transactions to ensure risk management and safeguard the internationalization of the RMB [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion RMB / 70 trillion KRW, effective for five years, which can be extended by mutual consent [1] - The renewal of the agreement aims to deepen monetary and financial cooperation between the two countries, facilitate bilateral trade, and maintain financial market stability [1] Bilateral Currency Cooperation - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries and regions, with 32 effective agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] - The actual utilization of RMB by foreign central banks reached 80.67 billion RMB, while the PBOC's utilization of foreign currency swap funds was approximately 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The internationalization of the RMB has accelerated, showing progress in cross-border trade settlement, financial market opening, and reserve currency status [2] Offshore RMB Market Development - The offshore RMB market is steadily developing, with the PBOC collaborating with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to facilitate RMB transactions and support a new 100 billion RMB trade financing arrangement [3] - As of the first quarter of 2025, offshore RMB deposits reached approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high, and offshore RMB bond issuance amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 27% year-on-year increase [3] Policy and Framework Enhancements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to eliminate policy bottlenecks and integrate cross-border and offshore RMB financial services, promoting RMB settlement for overseas project loans and encouraging more entities to issue RMB-denominated securities [4] Financial Market Opening - The report outlines a gradual opening of the financial services sector, allowing qualified foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and optimizing channels for domestic institutions to invest abroad [5] - It also proposes the development of RMB foreign exchange derivatives and the promotion of RMB trading with neighboring countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Cross-Border Payment System - The report highlights the construction of a self-controlled cross-border payment system for RMB, expanding the coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and enhancing cross-border RMB clearing services [6] - It emphasizes the need for a robust regulatory framework for cross-border RMB business to ensure risk prevention while promoting internationalization [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global capital is increasingly recognizing the investment value of Chinese technology innovation, particularly in emerging sectors like AI, electric vehicles, and clean technology, with Chinese stock valuations still at relatively low levels and potential for upward movement [1][2][3] - International investors are becoming aware of the global competitiveness of technologies developed in China, leading to a realization that some Chinese stocks can offer best-in-class asset returns [2][3] - China's economic growth rate exceeded 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a robust and sustainable economic foundation, although there are structural differences in industry performance [3][4] Group 2 - The supply chain finance sector is poised for significant development opportunities as Chinese companies accelerate their international expansion, with Standard Chartered leveraging its understanding of both Chinese and international supply chains to provide critical insights and financial support [4][5] - Standard Chartered has launched a one-stop cross-border financial solution called "Standard Chartered Global Chain," focusing on accounts receivable and payable management, risk management, and cross-border fund management to support enterprises [5][6] - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with a need to expand offshore markets and provide more investment options in RMB to international investors, which is crucial for the currency's broader use [7][8] Group 3 - Shanghai has made significant progress in infrastructure, financial regulation, and legal development, contributing to its evolution into an international financial center, with a strong ecosystem in asset management, banking, insurance, and brokerage [8] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is developing offshore business, primarily supporting onshore entities, and is seen as a model for gradual opening, catering to foreign institutions managing both onshore and offshore operations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with a scale not exceeding 40 billion, marking a significant move in the context of US-China negotiations [1] Group 1: Financial Mechanisms and Policies - The second meeting of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China signifies a new phase of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to create a unique macro-control system [3] - The resumption of central bank operations in government bond trading is expected to provide monetary support for growth policies in the fourth quarter of 2024 [8][10] - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds is a key strategy to enhance the role of Hong Kong as a major offshore RMB center, providing stable RMB asset options for foreign investors [10][26] Group 2: Debt Structure and Economic Comparison - China's total M2 money supply reached 304 trillion RMB (approximately 42.1 trillion USD) by Q3 2025, significantly higher than the US's 20.8 trillion USD, yet maintaining moderate CPI growth [12] - As of 2025, China's total government debt is 92.6 trillion RMB (approximately 12.3 trillion USD), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.64%, contrasting with the US's 127% ratio [15][18] - Unlike the US, where debt is primarily used for consumption, about 60% of China's government debt is allocated to high-quality assets like transportation and energy [12][15] Group 3: Internationalization of RMB - The RMB internationalization index reached 5.68% in 2025, making it the third-largest international currency, but still trailing behind the US dollar [20] - The proportion of RMB settlements in trade with countries along the Belt and Road has increased from 15% in 2020 to 28% in 2025, particularly in energy trade [22] - The use of RMB in energy cooperation with Russia has exceeded 45%, showcasing a successful model that is being replicated in other regions [24] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Global Impact - The offshore RMB center in Hong Kong saw a trading volume of 8.6 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 35% increase from the previous year, enhancing its role as a cross-border payment hub [26] - The exploration of a financial development path distinct from the US aims to provide a more stable global economic environment, countering the "harvesting" model associated with US dollar dominance [27]