Fundamental Analysis - The trade war between the US and EU is intensifying, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU products starting August 1, which has raised concerns about the potential breakdown of trade negotiations and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen to 59%, with October rate cut expectations fully priced in, contributing to gold's appeal amid policy uncertainty [3] - Key events to watch include speeches from Bank of England officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may influence market sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The daily trend for gold is currently characterized as "strongly bullish," with a significant upward movement observed on Monday, indicating short-term bullish momentum [4] - Key support levels identified are 3365-3360 and 3345, which are critical for maintaining the bullish trend [4][5] - Resistance levels are noted at 3420 and 3428, with a breakthrough of these levels potentially opening up further upside for gold prices [5][6] Short-Term Outlook - The four-hour analysis confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, with critical support at 3377-3374, which needs to hold for the bullish momentum to persist [8] - The first resistance level to monitor is around 3408-3410, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and events to monitor include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, UK economic stability report discussions, and US manufacturing index data [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is eager to engage in business with China, while the "100-day visit to China" plan has failed, leading to increased tensions with tariffs being raised against China [1][3] - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with reductions of $173.2 billion, $50.8 billion, and $57.3 billion, aimed at protecting its wealth and adjusting its overseas asset structure [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has decided to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Chinese graphite, which, when combined with existing tariffs, will result in a total tariff of 160%, significantly impacting the electric vehicle industry [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's recent actions, including the signing of a fentanyl control bill, reflect a dual strategy of testing China's response while attempting to maintain a friendly dialogue [5][12] - The imposition of high tariffs on graphite and the ongoing issues with rare earth materials indicate a broader strategy to undermine China's competitive advantage in critical materials for electric vehicles [7][12] - The potential for a trade war and rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly if the U.S. Treasury market faces instability [3][12]

Group 1 - The Brazilian stock index rose by 0.59%, while the Brazilian real appreciated by 0.22% against the US dollar, closing at 5.5673 reais [1] - Brazilian President Lula stated that there is currently no tariff war between Brazil and the United States [1] - The potential for a trade war exists if US President Trump does not change his attitude towards Brazil [1]

| 能源 日报 | /// > 国経期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年07月21日 | 操作评级 | | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | | F0302201 Z0012038 | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | 李祖智 中级分析师 | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价反弹,SC09合约日内涨2.57%。伊拉克能源官员声明称近期无人机袭击已导致库尔德斯坦无油产 量减少14-15万桶/天，欧盟通过第18轮对俄罗斯能源制裁方案,供应担忧有所升温。但考虑到近期原油现货升 贴水及月差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱,7月贸易战的利空风险依然存在，油价 短期或难以突破震荡格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends on Monday. The main contract EC2510 fell 2.35%, and the rest of the contracts declined between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2400.50, down 21.40 points from last week, a 0.9% month - on - month decrease. The high - level spot indicators suggest that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented successfully, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. The basis repair logic drives the futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [1]. - The US consumer end shows strong resilience, with the retail sales data in June rebounding unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% and an improvement from the previous value of - 0.9%. However, due to the recent intensification of tariff policies, there is still an upward risk of inflation, which may affect future retail data [1]. - China's recent counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Amid trade war uncertainties, the demand expectation for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate widely. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term [1]. - There is still uncertainty during the window period from July to August when European, Japanese, Vietnamese and other countries renegotiate with the US. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 72.3 (up), EC sub - main contract closing price was 2291.900, and the EC2508 - EC2510 spread was +46.30 (up), the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 699.20, up 74.80 from the previous value; the EC contract basis was - 47.44 (down) [1]. - The EC main contract position decreased by 879 to 14037 hands [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) decreased by 21.44 to 2400.50, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 35.22 to 1301.81; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 86.39 to 1646.90, and the container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) decreased by 0.06 to 1227.97 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 10.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1803.42, up 77.01; it decreased by 22.00, the Panama - type freight index (daily) was 1919.00, and the Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2052.00, up 14.00 [1]. - The average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14636.00, down 93.00, and the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22732.00, down 332.00 [1]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, stating that cooperation and win - win are the right path for China and the US, and suppression has no way out. The US should abandon the zero - sum thinking and cancel a series of unreasonable economic and trade restrictive measures against China. Regarding Canada's stricter steel import restrictions, the Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition and will take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [1]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring in - depth promotion of product price monitoring, product consistency supervision and inspection, shortening the accounts payable period of suppliers, etc. The central fourth steering group carried out special research and discussions, demanding to effectively standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July and expressed concerns about the private - sector recruitment trend. He also said that if Trump nominated him as the Fed Chairman, he would accept. Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on social media [1]. - EU member states officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time sanctioning the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India. This round of sanctions also includes banning activities related to the Nord Stream gas pipeline and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [1]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, requesting to vigorously promote tariff negotiations. Bessent said that it is possible to reach a beneficial trade consensus for both countries, but "reaching a good consensus is more important than reaching a hasty one" [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant shift in the Trump administration's policy towards China, particularly the recent decision to lift restrictions on the sale of the H20 chip, indicating a move from a hardline stance to a more conciliatory approach [1][3][4] - The change in policy is attributed to China's countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, which have impacted American industries, prompting the U.S. to reconsider its aggressive trade tactics [4][6] - U.S. officials believe that the decision to reverse the H20 chip ban is part of a broader negotiation framework with China, aimed at improving relations and facilitating trade discussions [1][3][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the growing influence of China on the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the disruption of supply chains for critical materials, leading to production halts in American factories [4][6] - There is a recognition within the Trump administration that a hardline approach may not yield the desired results, with some officials advocating for a more flexible strategy that prioritizes maintaining technological leadership [1][7] - The article notes that the U.S. is attempting to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earth materials, but this process is complex and cannot be achieved quickly, as China plays a crucial role in various industries [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The latest holdings of Zhu Shaoxing's fund, FuGuo TianHui Selected Growth Mixed Fund, show significant changes in stock positions and reflect the current market conditions and investment strategies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, Zhu Shaoxing's stock position is at 94.05%, with the top ten holdings accounting for 34.98% of the fund's net value [2]. - The top ten holdings include Guizhou Moutai, Ningbo Bank, Spring Power, Midea Group, Ruifeng New Materials, CATL, Jerry Holdings, Binjiang Group, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Q2 include Jerry Holdings, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while positions in Ningbo Bank, Spring Power, Midea Group, CATL, and Binjiang Group were reduced [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - In Q2, the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, following a period of significant market volatility due to escalating trade tensions [3]. - The market experienced a recovery after a sharp decline caused by trade conflicts, with expectations of a negotiated resolution to the trade issues [3]. - The current A-share market is viewed as attractive in terms of long-term valuation, with equity assets positioned well in terms of risk-reward [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The fund aims to focus on high-quality stocks with strong corporate governance and management, believing these companies are more likely to create value for investors in the future [4]. - The investment strategy emphasizes patience in collecting shares of companies with significant growth potential, rather than attempting to predict short-term market trends [4]. - The fund's performance is linked to sharing the capital market gains derived from the growth of the underlying companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-EU trade negotiations are at a stalemate, with the U.S. imposing a hard deadline of August 1 for new tariffs unless a trade agreement is reached [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Position - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that new tariffs on the EU will begin on August 1, marking a firm deadline for negotiations [1][2]. - The U.S. is pushing for a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more, which exceeds the previously accepted 10% by the EU [3][4]. - The U.S. administration has repeatedly delayed the tariff deadline, but the latest statement indicates no further extensions will be granted [2]. Group 2: EU Response - The EU is preparing for a robust countermeasure, including potential tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. exports and the use of unprecedented "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) to respond to U.S. economic pressure [5]. - Germany, traditionally inclined towards a quick agreement with the U.S., has shifted its stance to support a stronger response alongside France and other member states [4][5]. - The EU had previously been close to an agreement that included a 10% baseline tariff and increased purchases of U.S. energy products and semiconductors, but negotiations have stalled due to U.S. demands for higher tariffs [3][4].

Group 1 - The current US-China confrontation is likened to an unexpected encounter battle, where both sides are unprepared and the initial situation is chaotic [1] - The US, despite its intentions to contain China, is not fully prepared for the confrontation due to internal issues such as hollowed-out industries and high debt [2][4] - China has been focused on peaceful development and gradually improving its industrial chain, benefiting from its relationship with the US in the past [2][4] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by the US is just the beginning, as the global market remains resilient and dependent on Chinese goods [6] - The US's attempts to decouple from China have proven ineffective, with ongoing trade between the two nations [6] - The technology war, particularly against companies like Huawei, has inadvertently spurred China's technological independence and innovation [6][7] Group 3 - The US's financial dominance is being challenged as its frequent use of sanctions and asset seizures raises global concerns about the safety of holding wealth in US dollars [9] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the digital yuan and cross-border payment systems, indicates a shift towards de-dollarization [9][10] - The ongoing battles in trade, technology, and finance represent a broader restructuring of global economic rules rather than isolated conflicts [10] Group 4 - The current standoff indicates that the US's strategies have not succeeded in undermining China, which has developed strong domestic markets and financial defenses [11] - The confrontation has evolved into a protracted struggle, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities for both nations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. economy and the potential implications for global markets. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments indicate that interest rates must remain restrictive for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening market hopes for rate cuts [3] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The "super core inflation" excluding food, energy, and housing rose by 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no month-on-month growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, suggesting a complex inflation landscape [9] - The U.S. Treasury's net issuance of bonds reached $1.2 trillion in Q2, a record for non-crisis periods, indicating significant supply pressure in the bond market [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies - The U.S. government announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian products, escalating trade tensions, while Mexico's president criticized U.S. policies regarding fentanyl [4] - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, reflecting rising global trade tensions [9] - Trump's administration's actions, including potential tariffs on Russia, further complicate the global trade landscape [9] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following the announcement of the PPI, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the dollar index dropped, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding inflation [9] - Gold prices experienced volatility, reflecting market uncertainty and potential reactions to changes in Fed leadership [10] - The market's response to Trump's potential dismissal of Powell was marked by significant fluctuations, highlighting the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [8][10]