Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Low inventory and high aluminum - water ratio provide support, but the off - season demand restricts the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend, macro - sentiment, and downstream start - up [4]. Summary According to Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and the shutdown is expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward, and winter storage was lackluster this year, providing limited price support [3]. Aluminum - On June 20, the weekly arrival volume of domestic port bauxite was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may affect the import of alumina and bauxite from the Middle East. However, few of China's imported bauxite passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and China's alumina exports to the Middle East are small, accounting for 13% of the total exports from January to May 2025 [3]. - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly start - up rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. On June 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous Monday. The de - stocking rate weakened, but the low inventory still supported the market, while the spot premium gradually declined. The proportion of aluminum water remained high, and the market ingot production was still tight [3]. - Overseas macro - instability persists. Low inventory and the expectation of a high aluminum - water ratio support the aluminum price, but the inventory trend has been volatile. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore prices is gradually emerging, and the off - season demand pressure limits the upside space [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The finished products are expected to fluctuate and sort out, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some individual mills after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - In May, due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the supply was tight, the price rose, and the theoretical profit expanded to 409 yuan/ton by the end of May. In June, the bauxite price fluctuated, the alumina cost did not change much, the production capacity that had been cut due to maintenance was partially restored, and the new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity [3] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with the weekly starting rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas on June 16 was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory decline slowed down in mid - June, with increased arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Gongyi and a significant decline in Foshan [3] - The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory to maintain a downward trend, but the increase in northwest shipments and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3][4] - Overseas macro instability persists, and the price faces pressure in the off - season. The inventory decline supports the price. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production shows marginal recovery, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased by 8.8 percentage points to -2% [1][41] - Cement average prices continue to decline [1][29] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions show marginal improvement, with average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales remain strong, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% respectively [2][80] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has improved, while container shipping prices show mixed performance [2][89] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1%, with energy and chemical prices down by 1.3% and metal prices down by 0.6% [2][111]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been continuously shifting downward, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Alumina Situation**: Last week, southern alumina enterprises had concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million tons/year compared to the previous period. Alumina enterprises have been facing losses, and the spot price has continued to rebound due to tightened supply and strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Bauxite Event**: The revocation of some mining rights in Guinea has affected the supply of bauxite. The specific impact needs to be evaluated, and it may provide short - term emotional support to the cost of alumina [2][3]. - **Inventory Status**: On May 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 585,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Monday. The subsequent inventory trend depends on the matching of downstream export order restocking demand and incoming goods [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly lower than the same period last year, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3%, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices show divergence, with the West America route continuing to rise while Southeast Asia route prices have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices falling by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% year-on-year [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly below last year's levels, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices are showing divergent trends, with the price on the West America route continuing to rise, while prices on the Southeast Asia route have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices declining by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]