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管涛:2025中国经济呈现三大亮点,市场普遍预期今年GDP实际增长目标或在4.5%至5%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 09:02
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a real growth rate of 5% in 2025, with three main highlights: meeting economic targets despite pressures, a shift in macroeconomic narrative towards consumption recovery and technological innovation, and resilience in stock and foreign exchange markets against external shocks [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The economic trajectory in 2025 is influenced by two main variables: increasing external uncertainties, particularly extreme tariff pressures, and the transition from old to new economic drivers [2][9]. - The market anticipates a GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% to 5%, which is deemed feasible and aligns with the long-term goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3][10]. Monetary Policy - A moderately accommodative monetary policy stance is expected to continue, focusing on promoting reasonable price recovery, with inflation levels currently low [4][11]. - The central bank has identified price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, indicating that support will persist even if GDP targets are met but inflation remains below ideal levels [4][11]. Domestic Demand and Global Impact - Strengthening domestic demand is crucial for sustainable economic growth in China and has positive implications for the global economy [5][12]. - Improved domestic demand can help reduce reliance on foreign markets and increase import demand from abroad, benefiting both China's economy and the global economic landscape [5][12]. Currency and Internationalization - Recent appreciation of the Renminbi is attributed to economic fundamentals and market forces rather than policy choices, emphasizing that currency internationalization should not rely solely on currency appreciation [6][12]. - The central bank's recent adjustments to digital currency policies aim to enhance the management and application of digital Renminbi, transitioning it into a new era of digital deposit currency [6][13]. Gold Market Dynamics - The trend towards a multipolar international monetary system continues, with gold emerging as a significant beneficiary as its share in global reserves increases [7][14]. - Private gold purchases have overtaken central bank purchases as the main driver of gold prices in 2025, indicating potential for further price increases despite possible short-term volatility [7][15].
GDP突破140万亿元!9张图看中国经济新答卷
Xin Hua Wang· 2026-01-19 08:07
让我们透过一张张图片、一组组数据 2025年,"十四五"收官之年 中国经济巨轮在乘风破浪中 应变克难、勇毅前行 很不平凡的一年 回望2025年中国经济 来之不易、可圈可点的成绩单 海报制作:栾若卉 新华社国内部出品 【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘阳】 记者:黄垚、王雨萧 ...
风口智库|增长5%,够硬!一季度“开门红”,可期!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 07:48
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 economic data indicates a stable growth trajectory for China's economy, achieving a GDP of 1401879 billion yuan with a growth rate of 5%, positioning it as a reliable contributor to global economic growth [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The 5% growth rate places China among the top economies globally, contributing approximately 30% to world economic growth [5]. - Over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy has achieved significant milestones, reaching new GDP levels of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, 130 trillion, and 140 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4% [5]. - The economic performance reflects resilience against multiple challenges, showcasing a robust growth pattern despite external pressures [5][10]. Group 2: Quality of Growth - The past year has highlighted a shift towards innovation, with R&D expenditure reaching 39262 billion yuan, maintaining China's position as the second-largest investor in R&D globally [6]. - The share of high-tech manufacturing in industrial value added reached 17.1%, indicating a significant transition towards advanced industries [6]. - Digital industries and infrastructure have expanded, integrating into various sectors and daily life, further enhancing economic quality [6]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Structural adjustments have led to a notable increase in the contribution of final consumption to economic growth, exceeding 50%, establishing it as a core growth engine [6]. - Ongoing reforms, such as the establishment of a unified national market and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, are expected to inject vitality into long-term economic development [6]. - The introduction of supportive policies, including monetary easing and consumption incentives, is anticipated to sustain internal demand and facilitate economic recovery in 2026 [12][13].
国家统计局:中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-19 07:21
中新社北京1月19日电 (记者陈溯王恩博)国家统计局局长康义19日在北京表示,从2026年全年看,中国 经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。 (文章来源:中国新闻网) 康义表示,2025年中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,主要预期目标圆满实现,展现了强大韧性和活 力,为2026年经济发展奠定了良好的基础。 "从近期情况看,生产、价格、预期等都出现了积极变化,经济稳中有进的态势持续。"康义说。 2025年12月份,规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比增速均比上月有所加快;CPI(居民消费价格 指数)上涨0.8%,是2023年3月份以来最高涨幅,核心CPI连续4个月涨幅在1%以上,PPI(工业生产者出 厂价格指数)同比降幅收窄,环比连续3个月上涨;制造业PMI和非制造业商务活动指数双双重回到扩张 区间。 康义表示,从政策支撑看,国务院常务会议部署实施财政金融协同促内需的一揽子政策,有关部门加快 贯彻落实,推进扩大内需。"两新"(大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新)政策不断优化,首批资金已经提 前下达,这些都为今年经济起步创造了有利条件。 "看中国经济,既看季度变化,更看全年走势,既看总量规模,更看发展质量。"康 ...
去年四季度GDP回落至4.5%,今年经济增速走势怎么看
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 06:45
2026年我国经济稳中向好有条件、有支撑。 随着宏观政策不断加力显效,2025年全年经济增长5%,完成了年初设定的预期目标。 国家统计局19日发布的数据显示,经初步核算,全年国内生产总值1401879亿元,按不变价格计算,比 上年增长5.0%,与上年增速持平。其中,四季度当季GDP同比增长4.5%,较第三季度增速放缓0.3个百 分点。 从环比增速看,四季度GDP增长1.2%,连续两个季度增速提升,显示经济增长边际加快。 国家统计局局长康义表示,2025年实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,国民 经济运行顶压前行、向新向优,高质量发展取得新成效,经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现,"十四 五"胜利收官。 康义表示,2025年国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶,比上年增长5.0%;城镇调查失业率平均值 是5.2%,就业保持总体稳定;货物贸易再创新高,外汇储备余额超过3.3万亿美元。对于我国这样超大 体量的经济体而言,在各种风险挑战交织的背景下,能够实现这样的稳定发展很不容易。 中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希分析,亮眼的数据充分反映出中国经济具有内在韧性,也体现了我国 经济优势多、潜力大、韧性 ...
今年经济增速走势怎么看
第一财经· 2026-01-19 06:16
2026.01. 19 本文字数:1533,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 随着宏观政策不断加力显效,2025年全年经济增长5%,完成了年初设定的预期目标。 国家统计局19日发布的数据显示,经初步核算,全年国内生产总值1401879亿元,按不变价格计算,比上年增长5.0%,与上年增速持平。其中,四季 度当季GDP同比增长4.5%,较第三季度增速放缓0.3个百分点。 从环比增速看,四季度GDP增长1.2%,连续两个季度增速提升,显示经济增长边际加快。 国家统计局局长康义表示,2025年实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优,高质量发展取得 新成效,经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现,"十四五"胜利收官。 康义表示,2025年国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶,比上年增长5.0%;城镇调查失业率平均值是5.2%,就业保持总体稳定;货物贸易再创新 高,外汇储备余额超过3.3万亿美元。对于我国这样超大体量的经济体而言,在各种风险挑战交织的背景下,能够实现这样的稳定发展很不容易。 康义表示,2026年是"十五五"开局之年,我国发展站在了新起点上。尽管外部 ...
稳、丰、增、快、升、优!六个关键字看懂2025年中国经济成绩单亮点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 05:48
中国经济 中国经济2025年全年成绩单今天揭晓 5.0%的经济增速 为这份成绩单注入了不少的含金量 六个关键字 帶您看懂2025年中国经济成绩单亮点 中国经济Up/ 2025年经济发展向新向优 预期目标圆满实现 初步核算,全年国内生产总值 40187 按不变价格计算 比上年增长5.0% 中国经济UP y 粮食增产主收 畜牧业稳定增长 全年全国粮食总产量 A 片 100 比上年增长1.2% 全年猪牛羊禽肉产量 7 - 100 比上年增长4.2% 首次超过1亿吨 and and 奥樱 中国经济Up 服务业平稳增长 现代服务业发展良好 全年服务业增加值比上年增长 全年全国规模以上工业增加值 比上年增长 信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业, 租赁和商务服务业增加值 分别增长11.1%、10.3% ■ 10 装备制造业增加值增长 9 中国经济 0 i T 高技术制造业增加值增长 工业生产较快增长 装备制造业和高技术制造业 = 增势较好 = 3D打印设备、工业机器人、新能源汽车产品产量 分别增长52.5%、28.0%、25.1% 中国经济 · 市场销售规模扩大 服务零售较快增长 全年社会消费品零售总额 比上年增长3.7% 全 ...
专家:2025中国经济呈现三大亮点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 04:45
【专家:#2025中国经济呈现三大亮点#】国家统计局数据显示,2025年中国经济增长5%。对此,中银 证券全球首席经济学家管涛在接受中国日报#智见中国#栏目独家专访时表示,2025年中国经济运行呈现 三大亮点:尽管面临内外部压力,主要经济指标实现年初预定目标;宏观叙事明显改变,消费复苏和科 技创新亮点纷呈;股市汇市顶住外部冲击,运行良好。他还指出,2026年要坚持政策支持和改革创新并 举,实施更加积极的宏观政策;中国扩大内需有助于增加进口需求,对全球经济具有积极意义。(记者 周兰序 欧阳诗嘉 视频 孙迟) ...
2025年我国平均每天有4.5万辆新能源汽车下线,超过5亿件快递包裹寄送
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 04:31
Economic Overview - The core viewpoint is that despite external challenges, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trajectory in 2026, supported by strong fundamentals and favorable conditions [2][3]. Development Foundation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to significant achievements in high-quality development, with economic growth exceeding 36 trillion yuan over five years and an increase in R&D expenditure intensity by 0.44 percentage points [2]. - China's economic stability is attributed to a combination of institutional, market, industrial, and talent resource advantages, creating a strong synergy for long-term growth [2]. Economic Performance - In 2025, China's economy grew by 5.0% despite external pressures, reflecting resilience and vitality [3]. - Key indicators such as the core CPI and manufacturing PMI show positive trends, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory in December [3]. Development Momentum - The cultivation of new productive forces and the benefits of reforms are becoming increasingly evident, with traditional sectors slowing down while emerging sectors, like AI and digital economy, are gaining momentum [3]. - In 2025, the value added of the digital product manufacturing industry increased by 9.3%, with significant outputs in electric vehicles and logistics [3]. Supportive Policies - More proactive macroeconomic policies are crucial for maintaining stable economic growth, with measures aimed at expanding demand and optimizing supply [4][5]. - In 2025, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods accelerated by 0.2 percentage points, and industrial value added growth increased by 0.3 percentage points [5]. International Outlook - Recent upgrades in growth forecasts by major international organizations indicate a positive outlook for China's economic development [5].
最新!中国经济:四字概括、“四连跳”、稳中向好……
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-19 04:22
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy in 2025 is characterized by stability, progress, innovation, and resilience, achieving a GDP of 140 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [2][6]. Economic Stability - The stability of the Chinese economy has been reinforced, with a significant GDP growth and a stable urban unemployment rate of 5.2% [2][3]. - The foreign exchange reserves exceeded 3.3 trillion USD, and trade volume reached new highs [2][3]. Economic Progress - Despite complex internal and external environments, the focus on high-quality development has accelerated the transformation of new and old growth drivers [3][4]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth surpassed 50%, and the high-tech manufacturing sector's value added reached 17.1% of total industrial output [3][4]. Innovation and New Drivers - Research and development expenditure intensity increased to 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, with significant advancements in AI, quantum technology, and other fields [4][5]. - The digital product manufacturing sector saw a 9.3% increase in value added, and new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of domestic sales [4][5]. Economic Resilience - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience amid global economic disruptions, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [5][8]. - High-tech product exports grew by 13.2%, showcasing the robustness of China's trade relationships [5][8]. Future Economic Outlook - The foundation for economic growth in 2026 is solid, with expectations of continued stability and support from proactive macroeconomic policies [9][11]. - The focus on high-quality development and innovation will further enhance China's economic capabilities and resilience [9][11].