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LPG早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:14
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Basis Information**: - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4,550 yuan. The PP price has risen, and PDH production profit has improved, while FEI production profit is lower than CP. The PG futures price has increased significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread has changed from -11 to 103. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Civil gas prices have risen significantly, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4,603 yuan. Shandong shows signs of stabilization; East China is generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but has marginally improved due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices have rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures is strongly running, the basis of the 07 contract has weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread is now 195 (+10) [1]. - **External Market and Spread Information**: - External market prices have strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP has reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP is -19 (+31). Freight rates have increased, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has decreased [1]. - Among product spreads, PDH production profit has worsened, FEI production profit is lower than CP; the profitability of alkylated oil has decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit has increased, while isomerization etherification profit has decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads have declined [1]. - **Fundamental Information**: - Both port inventories and factory inventories have decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments have declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1]. - Chemical demand has generally improved. The PDH operating rate has increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate has increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production has also increased significantly. A large number of MTBE export orders support the price. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,005 lots (-335) [1].
棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,反套表达,豆油:警惕地缘缓和带来回调风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:27
Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamental analysis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price trends, trading volume, positions, and macro - industry news [1][2][4] Core Views - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [1] - For soybean oil, there is a risk of a price pull - back due to potential geopolitical easing [1] Industry News - ITS reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 59.9 million tons month - on - month to 1.983 billion tons [2] - The USDA predicted that the total cost of producing soybeans in the US in 2025 would be $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it would be $650.34 per acre [4] - As of the week ending June 17, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and 2% last year [4] - Analysts noted that rainfall in the Canadian prairies is expected to ease the drought, where about 40% of the area is currently experiencing drought. The Canadian Statistics Bureau will release a sowing area report on June 27, and its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [4] Futures Market Data Price and Price Change | Variety | Day - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Day - session Price Change (%) | Night - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Night - session Price Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,538 | 0.23% | 8,596 | 0.68% | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,152 | 0.84% | 8,196 | 0.54% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,691 | - 0.12% | 9,737 | 0.47% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract (ringgit/ton) | 4,102 | 0.02% | 4,143 | 0.95% | [1] Trading Volume and Position | Variety | Previous Trading Volume (lots) | Trading Volume Change | Previous Position (lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 605,854 | - 49,717 | 505,691 | - 6,669 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 463,250 | 35,939 | 615,911 | 30,527 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 314,433 | - 118,096 | 390,919 | 2,081 | [1] Spot Price and Price Change | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 8,800 | 0 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,360 | 70 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,760 | 10 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract, US dollars/ton) | 1,005 | 10 | [1] Basis and Spread | Variety | Basis (yuan/ton) | Spread (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 262 | Palm Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 30 (Previous: 42) | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 208 | Soybean Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 76 (Previous: 70) | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 69 | Rapeseed Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 115 (Previous: 130) | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,153 (Previous: 1,185) | | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 386 (Previous: - 434) | | [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5]
软商品日报-20250618
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 12:26
白糖日报 软商品日报 2025/06/18 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...
焦炭:安检趋于严格,宽幅震荡,焦煤:安检趋于严格,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:39
焦煤:安检趋于严格,宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭:安检趋于严格,宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...
焦炭:宽幅震荡,焦煤,安检趋于严格,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250610
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:11
光期研究 光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 6 月 1 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 647.5 | 652.5 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -55.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 703.0 | 707.5 | -4.5 | I09-I01 | 36.5 | 36.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 666.5 | 671.5 | -5.0 | I01-I05 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 图表1:09-01合约价差(单位:元/吨) 图表2:01-05合约价差(单位:元/吨) 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250609
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the expectation of improved Sino-US relations drives the rebound of US soybeans, and the Brazilian premium rebounds, leading to an increase in import costs. However, there are no obvious abnormalities in the US soybean planting weather, and domestic ship purchases are progressing. The market lacks strong upward momentum for now, and the price is expected to move sideways [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - On June 6th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Dalian and Rizhao, it was -50 to -170 with a change of -12; in Tianjin, it was -90 with an increase of 8; in Zhangjiagang, it was -110 with a decrease of -52; in Dongguan, it was -190 with a decrease of -32; in Zhanjiang, it was -130 with a decrease of -22; and in Fangcheng, it was -140 with a decrease of -42. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -178 with a decrease of -41 [4]. Spread Data - The M9 - 1 spread was -38, the N9 - RM9 spread was 7, the RM9 - 1 spread was 261, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 402 with a change of 11, and the盘面 spread (主力) was 390 with a change of 20 [5]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1847, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 132.00 (in cents per bushel), and the import soybean盘面 gross profit was 175 yuan per ton with an increase of 10 [5]. Inventory Data - As of last week, domestic soybean inventories continued to accumulate and were at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory but was still at a low level. With the significant rebound in crushing operations, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate more rapidly in June [6]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: From May to July, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of now, the purchase progress for June is 94.4%, July is 80.6%, and August is 33.8%. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6]. - Demand: Based on inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better提货 [6].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250606
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 06:16
Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" by Guangda Futures, dated June 6, 2025 [1] 1. Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 646.5, 701.0, and 665.0 respectively, with changes of -1.5, -3.5, and -1.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are -54.5, 36.0, and 18.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0, -2.5, and 0.5 compared to the previous day [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The report shows the spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., along with their changes compared to the previous day [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - The report includes charts for block - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][17][18] 4. Exchange Rule Adjustments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made adjustments to the deliverable brands and brand premiums of iron ore futures, including adding new deliverable varieties and adjusting the brand premiums of existing varieties [11] - The adjusted rules apply to contracts from I2312 onwards, and the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts according to the new rules starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of the I2311 contract [12] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [25]
《金融》日报-20250606
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:25
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross-variety ratios on June 6, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, to help investors understand the market situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures-Spot Spreads**: The latest IF futures-spot spread is -25.56, with a change of 0.79 from the previous day, and historical 1-year and full - historical quantiles of 23.70% and 16.60% respectively. Similar data is provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Multiple inter-period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, and far month - current month are presented for different futures varieties, along with their changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and others are given, with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and listed - since quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on June 5, 2025, including TS, TF, T, and TL, to assist investors in analyzing the market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: The latest TS basis is -0.0808, with an IRR of 1.8342, a change of -0.0022 from the previous day, and a listed - since quantile of 39.10%. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL [3] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Inter-period spreads like current quarter - next quarter for different treasury bond futures varieties are shown, along with their changes and quantiles [3] - **Cross-variety Spreads**: Cross-variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented with their latest values, changes, and listed - since quantiles [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Futures-Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report offers the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on June 4, 2025, to help investors assess the precious metals market [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing price of the AU2508 contract is 783.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.30 and a growth rate of 0.17%. Similar data is provided for the AG2508 contract and foreign - market futures [7] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Basis**: Basis values such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract are presented, along with their changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [7] - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are provided, with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory data of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as holding data of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Index Futures and Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest prices, changes, and growth rates of container shipping index futures, spot prices, and related fundamental data, helping investors understand the container shipping market [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are given, along with their changes and growth rates [12] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes like SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), as well as Shanghai Export Container Freight Indexes such as SCFI composite index, are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, overseas economic indicators such as euro - zone manufacturing PMI, and OECD comprehensive leading indicators are given, along with their changes and growth rates [11] Group 5: Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report lists upcoming overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events, providing information for investors to follow the market [14] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data such as euro - zone GDP, employment, retail sales, and US employment data, as well as agricultural product reports and CFTC position reports [14] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers data on black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., silicon iron production, inventory), energy and chemical products (e.g., PX and polyester product data), and special commodities (e.g., glass production - sales ratio) [14]
《农产品》日报-20250530
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil in Malaysia aims to use B30 bio - fuel in the transport sector by 2030, with a short - term expectation of further oscillatory rebound. In China, Dalian palm oil futures rose sharply due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil, and may further strengthen and test the 8200 resistance. - For US soybean oil, the fundamental situation hasn't changed much. The recent rebound of CBOT soybean oil is mainly driven by the rise in NYMEX crude oil, but the trade frictions between the US and other countries limit its increase. In China, the spot price fluctuates narrowly, the basis quote is mainly stable with a slight decline in some areas. The factory operating rate is expected to rise, and the market is in a traditional demand off - season, which may lead to a decline in the basis quote [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - US soybean spring sowing is progressing smoothly with a fast overall sowing progress, and there is limited room for dry - weather speculation. Brazil's supply pressure is still being realized, and China has suspended importing soybeans from the US. The domestic soybean arrival in the later period is abundant, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. However, the current low inventory of soybean meal in oil mills and the low basis level suggest that the basis is expected to stabilize. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and there may be a short - term callback risk for soybean meal after rising above 2950 yuan/ton [2]. 2.3 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains a slight oscillation. The pig slaughter volume increases, the weight declines steadily, the secondary fattening is rolling out, and the replenishment willingness is limited. The improvement of the supply - demand situation is limited. There is some pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand, which supports the pig price, but the supply is abundant, so it's difficult for the price to rise. The current breeding profit exists, but the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the price has no basis for a sharp decline or strong upward drive. Attention should be paid to the support around 13500 on the futures market [5]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The remaining grain in the grassroots has been basically sold out. The market supply and price change with the grain - selling rhythm of traders. Traders are optimistic about the future market and hold back from selling. The price rebounds locally and remains stable overall with strong bottom support. The downstream deep - processing industry has continuous losses and reduces the operating rate, and the inventory declines slightly. The breeding end mainly replenishes inventory as a rigid demand, but the small price difference between corn and wheat and the concentrated listing of wheat limit the increase of corn price. In the long - term, the tightening supply, weakened import and substitution, and increasing breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn price. In the short - term, the market pays more attention to the wheat market, and the overall trading of corn is light with no strong unilateral driving force, maintaining an interval oscillation [7]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Global weather is favorable for sugar production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil speeds up the harvest, and the wet weather in India and Thailand benefits the growth of sugarcane crops. The 25/26 supply outlook is optimistic, and the raw sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Considering that a large amount of raw sugar hasn't entered the domestic market, it still supports the sugar price. The market focus is on the future import rhythm. The domestic supply - demand situation is generally loose, and the increasing long - term supply is the strongest inhibitory factor. The sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillatory weak trend [10]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry has rigid demand resilience. The current downstream operating rate hasn't decreased significantly, the finished product inventory is not high, and the spot basis of raw - material cotton is firm, providing strong support for the cotton price. However, the long - term demand expectation is not strong, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval [11]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a certain negative impact on the egg price. The demand may first decrease and then increase, which is the main factor affecting the egg price fluctuation. The national egg price is expected to first decline and then rise this week with a small adjustment range [13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 8100 yuan, the futures price (Y2509) drops from 7492 to 7478 yuan (-0.19%), the basis (Y2509) increases by 14 yuan (2.30%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 65 to 17152 (-0.38%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rises from 8600 to 8700 yuan (1.16%), the futures price (P2509) increases from 8000 to 8082 yuan (1.03%), the basis (P2509) rises by 18 yuan (3.00%), the盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port for September increases by 64 yuan (0.74%), and the盘面 import profit increases by 18 yuan (2.81%). - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 9600 yuan, the futures price (O1509) drops from 9073 to 9070 yuan (-0.03%), the basis (O1509) increases by 3 yuan (0.57%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 412 [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - period spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil increases from 18 to 30 yuan (66.67%), the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil increases from 16 to 30 yuan (87.50%), and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreases from 169 to 167 yuan (-1.18%). - **Cross - variety spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread decreases, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changes slightly [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2940 to 2930 yuan (-0.34%), the futures price (M2509) rises from 2961 to 2962 yuan (0.03%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 110 to 26899 (-0.4%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2530 to 2520 yuan (-0.40%), the futures price (RM2509) rises from 2604 to 2618 yuan (0.54%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 394 to 27615 (-1.41%) [2]. 3.2.2 Import and Spread Information - The盘面 import profit of Brazilian soybeans for July shipment increases by 13 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes [2]. 3.3 Pig Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures: The main contract price drops from 970 to 890 yuan/ton (-8.25%), the price of live - hog 2507 drops from 13260 to 13215 yuan (-0.34%), the price of live - hog 2509 rises from 13560 to 13640 yuan (0.59%), and the 7 - 9 spread increases from 300 to 425 yuan (41.67%). The main contract position increases by 1488 to 79448 (1.91%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 450. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions remain unchanged, the sample - point slaughter volume increases by 4051 to 155211 (2.68%), the weekly white - strip price drops from 20.71 to 20.60 yuan (-0.53%), the weekly piglet price remains unchanged at 28.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remains unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight drops from 129.38 to 129.18 kg (-0.15%), the weekly self - breeding profit drops from 81 to 48 yuan/head (-40.23%), the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit drops from 48 to - 16 yuan/head (-133.32%), and the monthly fertile sow inventory drops from 4039 to 4038 million heads (-0.02%) [5]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2507 rises from 2325 to 2332 yuan (0.30%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remains unchanged at 2320 yuan, the basis drops from - 5 to - 12 yuan (-140.00%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 24 to - 20 yuan (16.67%), the Shekou bulk - grain price drops from 2410 to 2400 yuan (-0.41%), the north - south trade profit drops from 14 to 4 yuan (-71.43%), the CIF price drops from 2063 to 2056 yuan (-0.37%), the import profit drops from 347 to 344 yuan (-0.71%), the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning drops from 747 to 626 (-16.20%), the position drops from 2025642 to 2010114 (-0.77%), and the warehouse receipt drops from 217099 to 216419 (-0.31%) [7]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2507 rises from 2663 to 2676 yuan (0.49%), the Changchun spot price and the Weifang spot price remain unchanged. The basis drops from 27 to 14 yuan (-48.15%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 60 to - 58 yuan (3.33%), the starch - corn futures spread increases from 338 to 344 yuan (1.78%), the Shandong starch profit rises from - 157 to - 151 yuan (3.82%), the position drops from 324840 to 320150 (-1.44%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 25252 [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 drops from 5674 to 5660 yuan (-0.25%), the price of sugar 2509 drops from 5795 to 5783 yuan (-0.21%), the ICE raw - sugar main contract price drops from 17.25 to 16.91 cents/pound (-1.97%), the 1 - 9 spread drops from - 121 to - 123 yuan (-1.65%). The main contract position increases by 415 to 308960 (0.13%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 100 to 31481 (-0.32%). - Spot: The Nanning and Kunming spot prices remain unchanged. The Nanning basis increases by 12 yuan (3.33%), the Kunming basis increases by 12 yuan (7.27%). The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) drops from 4696 to 4680 yuan (-0.34%), and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) drops from 5974 to 5952 yuan (-0.37%) [10]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production and sales increase, the industrial inventory decreases, and the sugar import increases significantly [10]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 drops from 13330 to 13320 yuan (-0.08%), the price of cotton 2601 rises from 13375 to 13390 yuan (0.11%), the ICE US cotton main contract price drops from 65.33 to 65.03 cents/pound (-0.46%), the 9 - 1 spread drops from - 45 to - 70 yuan (-55.56%). The main contract position decreases by 10069 to 552461 (-1.79%), the warehouse receipt decreases by 52 to 11157 (-0.46%), and the effective forecast increases by 29 to 380 (8.26%). - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B rise slightly, the FC Index:M: 1% drops slightly, and the relevant spreads change [11]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national inventory, industrial inventory, and import volume of cotton decrease, the bonded - area inventory decreases, the textile industry inventory increases year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days increase, the cotton outbound shipment volume increases, the spinning enterprise's immediate processing profit drops, and the clothing and textile retail and export data change [11]. 3.7 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 09 contract rises from 3722 to 3750 yuan/500KG (0.75%), the price of the egg 06 contract rises from 2662 to 2689 yuan/500KG (1.01%), the egg - producing area price remains unchanged at 3.05 yuan/jin, the basis drops from 170 to 134 yuan/500KG (-20.99%), the 9 - 6 spread rises from 1061 to 1060 yuan (0.09%). The egg - chicken chick price remains unchanged, the culled - chicken price drops from 5.22 to 5.12 yuan/jin (-1.92%), the egg - feed ratio rises from 2.51 to 2.53 (0.80%), and the breeding profit rises from - 17.22 to - 15.96 yuan/feather (7.32%) [13].