Core Viewpoint - The DDR4 memory, which was expected to fade from the mainstream market, has recently shown an unusual price trend in the storage chip spot market, with its price surpassing that of the newer DDR5 memory, leading to a rare "price inversion" phenomenon [2][3][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of DDR4 has been constrained as major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize production for higher-margin products such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand [3][5]. - Specific industries, such as industrial control and security, continue to exhibit a rigid demand for DDR4 due to product lifecycle and certification costs, despite its status as an older generation product [3][4][14]. Market Reactions - The announcement of DDR4's End-of-Life (EOL) by manufacturers has led to a rush in inventory buildup among downstream customers, causing a supply shortage [4][11]. - The price of DDR4 eTT chips has increased significantly, with reports indicating a price surge of nearly 50% in recent months, reflecting a chaotic market driven by panic buying and speculation [9][12]. Industry Transition - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a transition from DDR4 to DDR5, but this shift has been disrupted, leading to significant price increases for DDR4 products [9][19]. - The focus on HBM production by major manufacturers has resulted in a strategic withdrawal from lower-margin products like DDR4, creating a vacuum in the market that local manufacturers may exploit [19][20]. Future Outlook - The shift towards HBM and the strategic decisions of major players may provide opportunities for domestic manufacturers to fill the gap left by international giants, although challenges remain in terms of technology and production capabilities [20][21]. - The ongoing demand for DDR4 in niche markets, combined with the reluctance of enterprise clients to purchase at inflated prices, is pushing the market towards DDR5 adoption [14][15].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Recently, supported by the bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both futures and spot prices have strengthened in resonance. Short - term technical corrections on the market should be noted [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On July 15, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated. On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have accepted the first round of coke price hikes [3] - In June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size in China was 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points slower than that in May. The daily output was 14.04 million tons. From January to June, the output was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the coke output was 41.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.14%. From January to June, the cumulative coke output was 248.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [3] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall resumption process was relatively slow. The regional, phased and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal was not effectively alleviated. With the rising macro - expectations and the release of speculative demand, coking coal prices continued to rise, and the mine pit - mouth inventory continued to decline significantly [4] - From July 11th to 15th, due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the border ports were temporarily closed and are expected to gradually resume on the 16th [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, the hot metal output last week dropped below 2.4 million tons. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' production reduction [4]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented high temperatures in Northeast China have led to a surge in air conditioning sales, highlighting a mismatch between regional supply and demand in the context of climate change [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average air conditioning ownership rate in Northeast China is significantly lower than the national average, making it a key area for market growth [1][2]. - Sales data from major brands indicate record-breaking growth in air conditioning sales in Northeast provinces, with Haier reporting retail sales increases of 333%, 355%, and 518% in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning respectively [4][5]. - The total installation volume in the Northeast reached 410,000 units from June to July, marking a 238% increase [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The rapid increase in demand has led to supply shortages, with reports of out-of-stock situations and delayed installations across social media platforms [6][8]. - Northeast China has historically low production capacity for air conditioners, with only Liaoning producing approximately 527,700 units, while Heilongjiang and Jilin have no production capacity [11][12]. - The mismatch between sudden demand spikes and local supply capabilities has resulted in logistical challenges and increased costs, impacting profit margins for manufacturers [13][14]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The current supply-demand imbalance poses risks for market development, as the inability to meet demand can lead to customer dissatisfaction and potential loss of market share [13][14]. - If demand in Northeast China continues to grow, existing production capacity may limit the industry's ability to expand rapidly [14]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their market responsiveness and flexible production capabilities to better align with regional demand fluctuations [14][18]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Manufacturers are advised to develop products tailored to the unique climate conditions of Northeast China, such as energy-efficient models suitable for high temperatures and winter heating needs [18]. - Companies are also exploring partnerships with local firms to reduce transportation costs and improve supply chain efficiency [18].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场氛围偏暖 期现共振走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格延续震荡反弹走势，现货市场跟涨，多地 焦企开始首轮提涨。近日市场情绪持续回暖，利多传闻不断，刺激价格走 强，但仍有待关注相关政策、措施实际落地情况。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 共振走强。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement by Trump on August 8 to impose a 50% tariff on copper, which has led to a significant widening of the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper, reaching a premium of approximately 25% [1] - The widening price difference is attributed to the U.S. having stockpiled a large amount of copper inventory through "import grabbing," which may lead to a substantial reduction in copper imports in the future [1] - The article suggests that the disconnect between the U.S. market and the global market diminishes the attractiveness of this price difference, but a potential opportunity may arise from the correction between LME copper and Shanghai copper due to long-term supply-demand mismatches [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the non-ferrous 60 ETF tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Index, which is compiled by Zhongzheng Index Co., and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The index includes stocks from various sub-sectors such as precious metals and rare metals, exhibiting strong cyclical and commodity characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main futures contract reported at 707.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [1] - As of July 1, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China is 144.65 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the previous week [2] - Satellite data shows that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 12.38 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 188,000 tons, indicating a relatively low inventory level since the second quarter [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the mismatch between overseas supply and domestic demand has supported iron ore prices, which are expected to remain strong as long as steel mills maintain profitability and high iron water production [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that iron ore shipments globally have decreased compared to the same period last year, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non-mainstream countries have seen a rebound [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in geopolitical risks and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to improved market sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot prices have been consistently stronger than futures since June, leading to heightened attention from industry chain enterprises, with the PTA basis average value rising by 40% year-on-year as of June 26 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strengthening of the PTA basis is primarily due to a tight supply-demand structure, with polyester plant operating rates maintaining at 90%, the second-highest level of the year, indicating strong downstream demand [1] - In June, approximately 200,000 tons of PTA were de-stocked, continuing the de-stocking trend from the second quarter, while the main suppliers have slowed down their shipment pace, creating a seller's market [1] - The current PTA social inventory is at a neutral to low level, with tight circulating inventory further supporting the strong PTA basis [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Potential Risks - Despite the current strength of the PTA basis, there are differing opinions on its sustainability, with expectations of potential production cuts in the polyester sector due to profit losses and inventory buildup [2] - Polyester production is expected to be 6.6 million tons in July, with PTA consumption potentially decreasing by 70,000 tons, and further reductions are anticipated in August during the demand off-season [2] - Key variables to monitor include geopolitical changes and oil price fluctuations, as well as the execution of production cuts in the polyester industry and the commissioning progress of new PTA facilities [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Projections - The elasticity of the PTA cost side is also noteworthy, with a near-term strong performance expected due to low inventory supporting the basis and industry chain profits [3] - However, in the long term, the commissioning of new PTA facilities and reduced maintenance plans in the second half of the year, combined with the seasonal demand downturn, may limit the upward price potential of PTA [3] - The supply-demand structure of PX is currently better than that of PTA, and any unexpected maintenance of PX facilities could impact PTA prices positively [3]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-26 08合约计价7月上半月运价见顶，关注下周船司7月下半月报 价情况 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹，7月第一周价格1900/3180，7月第二周价格开出为1740/2900（较前期下 降200美元/FEU,目前涨至1760/2940）；HPL 7月上半月船期报价2035/3235，7月下半月船期报价2435/3835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹7月份上半月船期报价2180/3640；ONE上海-鹿特丹7月上半月船期报价 2914/3343，7月下半月船期报价2914/3343；HMM上海-鹿特丹7月上半月价格1915/3400. Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 上海-鹿特丹7月上半月船期报价 2035/3645；EMC7月上半月船期报价2555/3860；OOCL 7月份第一周船期价格2100/3500。 地缘端：一名以色列官员称，以色列暂缓派遣人质谈判小组前往埃及或卡塔尔与哈马斯进行谈判，因为双方之间 仍然存在根本分歧，阻碍 ...

供给端，海外矿山挺价，但下游高价接货意愿较弱，矿价仍然呈现偏弱运行态势，外采端成本重心下 降。前期减停产的锂盐厂基本在增复产，碳酸锂产量有创新高的预期，供给端延续库存从矿端转移至盐 端，锂盐产量持续增加。进口方面，5月智利发运环比大幅减少，但受到船期影响，6月实际进口量或不 会出现明显走弱趋势，进口仍保持稳定状态，总供给将持续增加。 （文章来源：期货日报） 近几周，碳酸锂价格整体在6万元／吨附近震荡，尽管目前绝对价格偏低，但宏观面支撑边际减弱，在 供给未出现减量的情况下，碳酸锂仍难以出现反转上涨趋势。最近，仓单注销较多，仓单量持续走低， 引发市场关注，但距离2509合约交割仍有时间，持续跟踪仓单变化情况。目前锂盐端复产增加，过剩量 级有扩大预期，短期价格将承压下行。期货市场方面，上周碳酸锂期货2509合约开盘于60000元／吨， 收盘于58900元／吨，最低价为58860元／吨，最高价为60600元／吨，整体价格重心下移。成交方面， 碳酸锂期货2509合约周度成交量107.85万手，环比大幅增加40.02万手，持仓量为35.43万手，环比增加 8.74万手。 2025年资源端复产与需求端预期下调使得锂矿过剩量 ...