在财政政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量。要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构， 强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民 生、扩内需、增后劲。要主动靠前发力，提高资金使用效率，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文章，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，提 升金融服务实体经济的质效，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 对于中央经济工作会议部署的"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，韩文秀表示，下一步，要深入实施 提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，要以新需求引领新供 给，以新供给创造新需求。适应消费结 ...

其中，在联合开展促消费活动层面，鼓励金融机构根据各地方促消费差异化政策和场景需求，定制和升 级数字人民币智能合约红包服务方案，更好满足补贴资金高效周转、精准直达、定向施策等要求。在信 息共享层面，地方商务主管部门应结合实际情况，建立消费领域重点项目清单，依托信贷市场服务平台 等平台或机制，加强与金融机构共享，便利金融机构做好精准对接服务。完善消费品以旧换新服务平 台，扩大金融机构参与范围；地方商务主管部门依托支持小微企业融资协调工作机制，通过地方融资信 用服务平台，积极推动加强与金融机构共享商贸类小微企业信息，促进融资精准直达。 （文章来源：证券时报） 中央经济工作会议仍将"内需主导"放在明年各项经济工作的首位。提振消费各项举措涉及面广，一段时 间以来，加强跨部门联动是推动政策落地实施的一项重点。例如，财政部就会同人民银行、金融监管总 局，自今年9月1日起实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策。商务部财务司有关负责人指出，《通知》的一大 特点同样在于坚持系统思维，通过加强商务与金融系统常态化沟通交流，鼓励强化政策衔接、工作对接 和信息共享，统筹谋划存量和增量政策举措，发挥多种政策组合效应，凝聚更大工作合力。 12月14 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Central Economic Work Conference is to prioritize domestic demand and establish a strong domestic market as the top task for 2026, with a specific emphasis on formulating and implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents [1][2] - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are identified as the main themes for China's economic work in 2025, with the government emphasizing the need to address the mismatch between strong supply and weak demand [2][5] - The shift from a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups to a comprehensive income increase plan for all urban and rural residents reflects a move from general principles to specific operational strategies [2][5] Group 2 - To break the cycle of having income but lacking consumption willingness, it is crucial to enhance income expectations, as consumer willingness is significantly influenced by these expectations [3][4] - The current situation in China regarding domestic demand is complex, requiring a combination of short-term and long-term strategies, including government policies, corporate investments, and resident income support [5] - The transition from an investment and export-driven economy to one driven by consumption is evident, with consumption's share of GDP significantly increasing, making it essential to address the domestic supply-demand imbalance and respond to external challenges [5]

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and innovation-driven growth [1] - Central provinces like Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Shanxi are focusing on stimulating domestic demand and integrating technological and industrial innovation [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a strong focus on building a robust domestic market [1] - Provinces are making specific plans to expand consumption and investment, with Hubei aiming to lead new supply through new demand, while Henan focuses on leveraging local advantages to stimulate consumption [2] - Jiangxi is prioritizing the expansion of effective investment and consumption through targeted project planning and actions to boost consumer confidence [2] Group 2: Innovation and Industry Development - The conference emphasized the need for innovation-driven growth, with provinces like Hubei, Henan, and Hunan focusing on integrating technological advancements with industrial development [4][5] - Hubei plans to enhance the integration of technology and industry, while Henan aims to build a modern industrial system and develop new pillar industries [5][7] - Jiangxi is set to leverage its resource advantages to create a modern industrial system and a technology innovation center, focusing on key sectors like rare earth materials and traditional medicine [8] Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Coordination - The conference called for coordinated development and urban-rural integration, with Hubei promoting a regional economic layout that emphasizes complementarity and high-quality development [9] - Hubei's strategy includes supporting key cities like Wuhan and Xiangyang to become regional centers, while also enhancing urban agglomeration and infrastructure connectivity [9][10] - Shanxi is focusing on high-quality county-level economic development and rural revitalization, aiming to improve urbanization and agricultural productivity [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and outlines eight key tasks for 2026, with a focus on implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents [1]. Group 1: Economic Strategy - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are identified as the main themes for China's economic work in 2025, with a strong emphasis on these areas in the government work report [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" reiterates the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand as a foundational principle [2]. - The conference highlights a significant mismatch between strong supply capabilities and relatively weak demand, indicating a pressing need to address this imbalance [2]. Group 2: Income Growth Initiatives - The shift from promoting income growth for low- and middle-income groups to a comprehensive plan for all urban and rural residents reflects a move from general principles to specific actionable strategies [2]. - The plan aims to enhance income through job creation, increasing labor compensation, and boosting wealth income, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [2]. - A systematic approach to increasing residents' income is seen as essential for long-term strategies to build a robust domestic market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Addressing the cycle of having income but lacking consumption willingness is crucial, as consumer sentiment is heavily influenced by income expectations [3]. - Economic pressures and fluctuations in business production can lead to increased passive savings and reduced active consumption willingness among residents [4]. - The interplay between government policies, corporate investments, and residents' income is vital for fostering a supportive environment for consumption [5]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Transition - China's ongoing transition from an investment and export-driven economy to one primarily driven by consumption is highlighted, with consumption's share of GDP significantly increasing [5]. - Expanding domestic demand and making consumption a central pillar is not only a solution to the supply-demand imbalance but also a necessary response to external complexities [5]. - A well-structured income growth plan is essential for encouraging residents to spend, thereby creating a positive cycle that strengthens the domestic market [5].

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Central Economic Work Conference is to prioritize domestic demand and establish a strong domestic market as the top task for 2026, with a specific emphasis on formulating and implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents [1][2] - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are identified as the main themes for China's economic work in 2025, with the government emphasizing the need to address the mismatch between strong supply and weak demand [2][5] - The shift from promoting income growth for low- and middle-income groups to a comprehensive income increase plan for all urban and rural residents reflects a move from general principles to specific operational strategies [2][5] Group 2 - To break the cycle of having income but lacking consumption willingness, it is crucial to enhance income expectations, as consumer willingness is significantly influenced by these expectations [3][4] - The current focus on domestic demand is a multifaceted issue that requires a combination of short-term and long-term strategies, including government policies, corporate investments, and resident income support [5] - The transition towards a consumption-driven economy is essential not only for resolving the supply-demand imbalance but also for navigating external complexities and seizing development opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector, focusing on companies with strong operational resilience or signs of bottom reversal [6][63]. Core Insights - The focus has shifted from policy catalysts to fundamental performance, with an emphasis on companies demonstrating operational resilience or potential recovery from low points [2][15]. - The retail sector experienced a relatively small decline of -0.21% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, outperforming other consumer-related sectors [1][7]. - The report highlights specific stocks that have shown significant price movements, such as Guai Bao Pet and TCL Electronics, which saw increases due to various catalysts [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail sector's performance was relatively stable compared to other sectors, with a decline of only -0.21%, ranking 12th among all sectors [1][7]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards technology and high-end manufacturing, leading to weaker returns in consumer and cyclical sectors [2][15]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Guai Bao Pet, which rose by 2.7%, and TCL Electronics, which increased by 2.5%, attributed to factors such as oversold rebounds and improved performance expectations [2][16]. - Conversely, stocks like Pop Mart faced declines due to disappointing sales during the overseas Black Friday promotions, raising concerns about future growth [2][16]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that investment opportunities may be limited as policy expectations have stabilized, recommending stocks with strong fundamentals and low valuation percentiles [3][17]. - Three main investment themes are proposed: benefiting from holiday travel and tourism, domestic brands with competitive advantages, and durable goods companies likely to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts [3][17]. Sector News - In the cosmetics sector, sales on major platforms reached 37.64 billion yuan in the first 11 months, with Proya leading in several categories [4][18]. - The home appliance sector saw the launch of a new smart air conditioning factory by Xiaomi, enhancing its production capabilities [4][19]. - The furniture sector is addressing consumer pain points with new commitments from leading companies to ensure quality and service [4][20].

当然，潜能不会自己跳出来。改革才是总开关。破除市场分割、地方保护和"内卷式竞争，全国统一大市场跑顺了，优势才能变成动能。 故事的答案其实很清楚：潜能一直都在，关键在于持续激活。 ——在复杂局势中找到"好风口"，把中国经济的潜能真正激活 但中央经济工作会议偏偏把它放在了C位，意思很直白：中国这台"超级引擎"，远没到满转速。 一提"经济潜能"，是不是听着有点虚？ 潜能藏在哪？不在神秘公式里，而在几张"明牌"上。超大规模市场，让创新和消费都有天然试验场；完整产业体系，让新技术落地更快；超2亿技能人才， 是持续升级的硬核底座；再加上制度优势的统筹协调，这些都是可以持续深挖的"家底"。 怎么挖？会议给了清晰路线图。第一，内需主导。投资端，新型城镇化、绿色改造、公共服务补短板空间巨大；消费端，服务消费、品质消费、银发经济仍 在起跑线。关键不是"刺激"，而是稳就业、增收入、优供给。第二，创新驱动。从"人工智能+"到新质生产力，既要突破关键技术，也要推动传统产业升 级，让科技真正变成增长发动机。 第三，协调发展。城镇化率每提高1个百分点，就能撬动万亿级投资和千亿级消费，城乡融合、城市群联动，本身就是潜 力放大器。 《挖潜经济 ...

分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、当地时间12月8日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国将在"确保国家安全"的前提下，允许 英伟达（Nvidia）向中国及其他批准客户出口其H200人工智能（AI）芯片。 2、12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。与去年12月9日召 开的中央政治局会议相比，"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"是新增提法。并根 据2026年经济工作特点，会议突出强调'内需主导，建设强大国内市场'，旨在着力解决 有效需求不足等突出问题。会议提出，要加强党的领导特别是党中央集中统一领导。树 立和践行正确政绩观，因地制宜做好经济工作，实现高质量、可持续的发展。编制好国 家和地方"十五五"规划及专项规划。 3、美联储决定将指标政策利率区间下调25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，三位决策者投了反 对票。鲍威尔还指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。短 期美联储降息或将暂停，而明年预计的降息次数为1到2次。 4、11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨 0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 家电行业周报 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.4% 8.1% 9.7% 绝对收益 -1.5% 17.7% 17.1% 内需主导，国补政策延续 相关研究： | 1.《估值洼地，龙头业绩确定性 | | | --- | --- | | 强》 | 2025.12.01 | | 2.《铜登凌云处，上游觅新机》 | | | 2025.12.07 | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 根据 ifind，本周家用电器行业涨跌幅为-1.98%，在申万同行业中排名第 25 位，同期沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.08%。子板块中，其他黑色家电（+1.29%）、 家电零部件Ⅲ（-0.54%）、冰洗（-1.84%）三个子行业在本行业涨幅靠前。 ❑ 估值低位，国补延续打开上行空间 估值历史低位，具备上涨空间。根据 ifind，以 PE-ttm 口径（整体法，剔除 负值 ...