文/高歌 7月9日对等关税90天暂缓到期日将近，但美国又推迟了。 当地时间7月7日，白宫表示，美国总统特朗普将签署行政命令，将原定于7月的关税谈判截止日期推迟至8月1日。 特朗普此前态度强硬，当地时间7月1日，在"空军一号"总统专机上表示，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的7月9日截止日期，对日 本进口商品税率或高达30–35%（或任何美方确定的数字），远高于4月时承诺的24% 。他后续更是表态将向各国发出关税警告信，若无协议将在8 月1日恢复征收，将涵盖10%～70%的关税。 聚焦谈判焦点国，当前美方已与英国、越南达成协议，日本、欧盟和印度等国家仍处于谈判中。对华方面，美国财长贝森特7月7日表示，预 计将在未来几周内与中方对口官员会面，以推动中美两国就贸易和其他议题的讨论。 对内减税，对外加关税，被认为是"特朗普2.0"经贸政策的两大利器。经过一段时间的推拉，当地时间7月3日，美国众议院以218票对214票微 弱优势通过特朗普"大而美"法案，并于7月4日正式签署生效。这份法案包含大规模减税以及支出削减计划，关键措施包括加强边境安全、削减社 会福利开支等。 "大而美"法案与美所谓"对等关税"的大体同步推进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies under the Trump administration, highlighting the implications for various countries and industries, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the potential impacts on exports and economic growth. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations and Policies - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to August 1, with President Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on imports from various countries, including Japan, which could reach 30-35% [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. House aims to reduce taxes and government spending, which is seen as part of Trump's economic strategy to boost domestic demand while increasing government revenue through tariffs [2][3] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan, the EU, and India are ongoing, indicating a complex international trade landscape [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Exports and Industries - The article notes that the tariff situation has led to a surge in exports from China, with a 6% growth rate in exports from January to May, surpassing the previous year's growth [4] - Companies are experiencing pressure to expedite production due to uncertainty surrounding future tariffs, particularly in the electronic paper industry, which has seen significant demand from clients [5][6] - The "rush to export" phenomenon is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that approximately $24 billion in exports were preemptively shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that while there has been a temporary boost in exports, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential economic pressures [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown signs of recovery, but new export orders remain below the growth threshold, indicating persistent challenges in the export sector [10][11] - The article suggests that the global trade environment will continue to impact China's economy, with a need for strategic policy adjustments to navigate the uncertainties ahead [12][13]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250708: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 変化值 单位 7月7日 7月4日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1712.00 1716.00 | 1702.00 1709.00 | 10.00 7.00 | 0.59% 0.41% | | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1735.00 | 13.00 | 0.75% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1820.00 1670.00 | 1810.00 1680.00 | 10.00 -10.00 | 0.55% -0.60% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

据中国汽车工业协会整理的海关总署 数据显 示 ， 2025 年 5 月， 汽车零部件类产品出口金额 达 82.5 亿美元，环比增长 2.9% ，同比增长 7% 。 来源： 中汽协会行业信息部 2025 年 1 - 5 月， 汽车零部件类产品出口金额累计达到 392.5 亿美元，同比增长 5.3% 。 ...

国防部新闻发言人蒋斌大校：我们在军品出口方面一贯坚持慎重、负责的态度，愿与友好国家分享 中国装备发展成果，为地区与世界和平稳定发挥建设性作用。 据央视军事，今天，有记者问，据报道，一些国家与中国商谈包括歼-10战斗机在内的武器采购计 划。请问发言人有何评论？ ...

证券研究报告|机械设备 [行业Table_Summary] 事件： 近日，中国工程机械工业协会公布最新统计数据，6 月销售各类挖掘机 18,804 台，同比增长 13.3%，6 月销售各类装载机 12,014 台，同比增 长 11.3%。 投资要点： 6 月中国挖掘机海内外销量同比齐增长。据中国工程机械工业协会对挖 掘机主要制造企业统计，2025 年 6 月销售各类挖掘机 18,804 台，同比 增长 13.3%。其中国内销量 8,136 台，同比增长 6.2%；出口量 10,668 台，同比增长 19.3%。2025 年 1-6 月，共销售挖掘机 120,520 台，同比 增长 16.8%；其中国内销量 65,637 台，同比增长 22.9%；出口 54,883 台，同比增长 10.2%。电动化方面，6 月销售电动挖掘机 27 台。 6 月中国装载机内销表现亮眼。据中国工程机械工业协会对装载机主要 制造企业统计，2025年6 月销售各类装载机 12,014台，同比增长11.3%。 其中国内销量 6,015 台，同比增长 13.6%；出口量 5,999 台，同比增长 9.11%。2025 年 1-6 月，共销 ...

乘联分会数据显示，6月 乘用车出口（含整车与CKD）48.0万辆，同比增长23.8%，环比增长7.3%，1-6 月乘用车厂商出口247.9万辆，同比增长6.8%。6月 新能源车占出口总量的41.1%，较同期增加17个百分 点。6月自主品牌出口达到41万辆，同比增长28%，环比增长10%；合资与豪华品牌出口6.2万辆，同比 下降9%。 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】中国的稀土主导地位，可谓西方国家长期絮叨的一块"心病"。特别是自中国依国 际惯例管控稀土出口以来，他们一洗往日跋扈，"愿意去做中方要求的任何事"，甚至求助对华友好国 家，只求获得稀土产品…… "这一轮手段比以往任何时候都更具杀伤性。"英国《金融时报》7月8日发文感叹，中国的稀土管控手法 相当高明，可能正是迫使美国扭转对华关税的关键因素，这不仅标志着中国经济策略进入新阶段，也证 明中国的"制裁"政策能对全球最大经济体造成影响。 文章还对西方的稀土战略作了一番反思，指出西方其实早就意识到了稀土矿产的重要性，但只会口头说 说"加强韧性"，却并未真正投入资金——几十年了，西方一直盯着这件"武器"，当中国最终扣动扳机 时，他们本不该感到惊讶。 对于中方依照国际惯例管控稀土出口，被"打疼"了西方国家或企业屡屡污蔑中国将稀土"武器化"。《金 融时报》的这篇文章也不例外，声称"中国将稀土武器化是一种新型贸易战"。 文章注意到，中国这些年动用的经济手段不在少数，但从未像如今的稀土管制这般具有杀伤力。过去中 国总是低调使用惩罚性措施，甚至官方层面还会否认，这些措施的确能够给相关国家造成一定经济损 失，可一旦 ...

Overall Market - June 2025 Production Analysis - In June 2025, the total production of passenger vehicles reached 2,441,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [3] - Cumulative production from January to June 2025 was 13,246,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [3] Overall Market - June 2025 Retail and Wholesale Sales Analysis - Retail sales in June 2025 reached 2,084,000 units, up 18.1% year-on-year and 7.6% month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 10,901,000 units, a 10.8% increase [12] - Wholesale sales in June 2025 hit 2,490,000 units, a 15.1% year-on-year increase and a 7.5% month-on-month increase, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 13,279,000 units, up 12.2% [18] New Energy Market - June 2025 Analysis - In June 2025, production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1,200,000 units, a 28.3% year-on-year increase [20] - Retail sales of NEVs in June 2025 were 1,111,000 units, up 29.7% year-on-year, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 5,468,000 units, a 33.3% increase [21] - NEV wholesale sales in June 2025 reached 1,241,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [21] Market Characteristics in June 2025 - June 2025 saw record highs in retail, wholesale, and production for passenger vehicles, with exports also reaching historical highs [15] - The market experienced a significant increase in the penetration rate of NEVs, reaching 53.3% in June 2025 [24] - The share of domestic brands in the passenger vehicle market was 64.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [16] Export Performance - In June 2025, total passenger vehicle exports reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [17] - NEVs accounted for 41.1% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year increase [25] Inventory and Production Dynamics - Overall inventory in the passenger vehicle industry decreased by 150,000 units in June 2025, indicating a positive production and sales balance [19] - The production of passenger vehicles in June 2025 was 2,419,000 units, contributing to a healthy inventory turnover [17] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience structural differentiation, with traditional fuel vehicle production facing challenges while NEVs continue to grow [30] - The implementation of "old-for-new" policies is anticipated to stimulate further demand in the automotive sector [32]