Core Insights - Major commodities experienced a price increase, with gold surpassing the $4,000-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history [1] - Oil prices rose despite concerns regarding oversupply in the market, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Commodity Market Overview - Gold reached a historic high, marking a significant milestone in commodity trading [1] - The rise in oil prices suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, as investors appear to be disregarding previous oversupply fears [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting trends in commodity prices, highlighting the significant drop in oil prices while copper prices surge to a new high, indicating a complex market dynamic driven by supply and demand factors [1][5]. Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices fell to $60.48 per barrel, the lowest level in five months, while Brent crude dropped to around $64 [3]. - The anticipated OPEC+ meeting is expected to lead to an increase in idle production capacity, contributing to the oversupply and subsequent price decline [3]. - Concerns about a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity due to government layoffs further exacerbate fears of reduced oil consumption [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices have surged past $10,500 per ton, marking the highest level since May of the previous year [4]. - Supply disruptions, particularly from Freeport's Indonesian mine entering a state of "force majeure," have tightened global copper supply, supporting price increases [4]. - The unexpected drop in U.S. ADP employment data has strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could boost industrial production and copper demand [4]. Gold Market - Gold prices have recently experienced a pullback after a significant increase of 46% this year, approaching record annual gains from 1979 [4]. - The rise of the U.S. dollar has made gold more expensive in dollar terms, leading to decreased demand [4]. - Investor profit-taking and delays in economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown have contributed to the temporary decline in gold prices [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying supply, demand, policy, and market expectations rather than reacting to daily price fluctuations [5]. - Key factors to monitor include OPEC+ production decisions, copper supply issues, and the stability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5].

Core Insights - The public fund industry has experienced a fruitful year in the structural bull market leading up to Q3 2025, with active equity funds making a significant comeback [1] - A total of 53 funds have achieved over 100% returns year-to-date, with active equity funds accounting for 42 of these, highlighting the effective strategies of fund managers in high-growth sectors like technology and innovation [2][4] - Gold ETFs have emerged as the standout performers in the commodity fund sector, with all 14 gold ETFs showing gains exceeding 40% year-to-date [5] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund, managed by Ren Jie, is the Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, with a return of 194.49%, heavily invested in the overseas computing power industry [2] - The second-best performer is the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection A, achieving a return of 155.09%, focusing on Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceutical stocks [2] - Other notable funds include the China Europe Digital Economy A with a return of 140.86%, and two additional funds with returns of over 128% [3] Gold ETF Highlights - Gold ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with the top two funds achieving returns of 41.48% and 41.47% respectively [5] - Over the past three years, these gold ETFs have accumulated returns exceeding 110%, indicating strong long-term investment potential [6] - The recent surge in international gold prices, reaching a high of $3922.7 per ounce, is expected to further enhance the investment value of gold [6] Asset Allocation Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, market sentiment remains high, with structural opportunities continuing to emerge, although some signs of overvaluation are noted [7] - Investment strategies may shift from growth to cyclical and consumer sectors, with a focus on underperforming cyclical stocks that may benefit from policy changes [8] - The ongoing AI technology revolution is expected to provide a premium for related assets, despite current high valuations [8][9] - The bull market trend is anticipated to continue, with a focus on emerging technologies and cyclical financials, particularly in the Hong Kong market [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the AI computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors are driving significant market performance, with 53 funds doubling their annual returns as of September 30 [1] - The technology growth style has emerged as the biggest winner in the market, reflecting strong investor interest and performance in this sector [1] - Commodities, particularly gold, have also seen substantial gains, with gold ETFs generally rising over 40% year-to-date [1]

Economic Outlook - The ADP report is anticipated to be a significant market mover as the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, with investors closely monitoring economic and job data [1] - There is an expectation of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with speculation about timing and market reactions [2] Sector Analysis - Investors are shifting towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and staples, as well as exploring options markets for downside protection [2] - Technology, AI, and healthcare sectors are expected to remain resilient amid potential government shutdowns, with the dollar absorbing market shocks [3] Global Investment Opportunities - There are emerging opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in China’s tech sector and potential political changes in Japan that could benefit investors [4] - The dollar has declined significantly year-to-date, impacting U.S. markets, but may lead to renewed interest in international markets, especially in Brazil and emerging markets [5][7] Commodity Trends - Commodities like platinum and copper are showing upward trends, with emerging markets likely to benefit from higher commodity prices [8][9] - There is potential stabilization in China, along with government stimulus that could positively influence commodity markets [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US inflation remains stable, with the Dow Jones reaching a high of 46,714 points, marking the 28th record close for the S&P 500 this year [9] - The report notes a continuous inflow of capital from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks, increasing from approximately 1,108.8 billion to 1,152.7 billion [9] - The investment strategy favors technology stocks and leading companies with AI application potential [9] - The report recommends structured products linked to AI indices, balancing yield and growth potential [9] - It suggests increasing investments in investment-grade corporate bonds to replace cash and short-term government bonds [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,128.20, down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.89% [14] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakening growth momentum, with GDP expected to decline to around 4.5% in Q3 and further to about 4.3% in the second half of the year [12] - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon in mainland China, where funds are moving from fixed deposits to equity investment products, with only 11% of the total deposits having migrated so far [12] Company Focus - Qingdao Beer Co. reported a net profit of 3.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, driven by margin improvements and product upgrades [19] - BYD has adjusted its sales target downwards but anticipates a new growth phase in production and sales in the coming months [12] - The report highlights PACCAR Inc. as benefiting from a new 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [22] - GlobalFoundries Inc. is expected to benefit from a new regulatory policy encouraging domestic semiconductor production, which may lead to increased local orders and incentives [23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-share market: A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index surging over 6%. Most stock index futures increased, and large-cap blue-chip stocks performed well. The market was in a state of multiple vacuums of performance, policies, and macro data, with less disturbance from domestic and foreign news. Investor sentiment was cautious due to approaching holidays, resulting in a random walk pattern and a slight decline in trading activity. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][14]. - Bond market: Treasury bond futures declined across the board this week. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern in August economic data may continue, pressuring third - quarter economic growth and providing some support for the bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive factors, the market is sensitive to negative news. The uncertainty of the new public bond fund regulations continues to disrupt, and bearish sentiment dominates. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to watch cautiously [9]. - Commodity market: The Wind Commodity Index rose 4.59%. Gold fell from its historical high due to the rising dollar but has long - term upward potential in a globally loose liquidity environment. Crude oil's trend was volatile due to geopolitical conflicts, and long - term supply pressure remains. The commodity index is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to mainly watch [9]. - Foreign exchange market: The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. Strong US economic data and hawkish signals from some Fed officials dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a short - term rebound of the dollar. The euro was suppressed by the dollar's rebound. It is recommended to watch cautiously [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Monetary policy**: China's central bank net injected 9406 billion yuan in the open market this week. The September LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1 - year and over - 5 - year varieties at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The current economic downward pressure has increased, but previous policies are still taking effect. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September provides more room for China's monetary policy. If the third - quarter fundamentals continue to weaken, there may be a new round of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [14]. - **Capital market**: As mentioned above, A - shares and stock index futures performed well, while Treasury bond futures declined [9][14]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: President Xi Jinping announced China's new national independent contributions at the UN Climate Change Summit. Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and met with the President of the European Commission [16]. - **International**: The US lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% and exempted some EU products from tariffs. There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and announced the reduction of ETF and real estate investment trust holdings [18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: The central bank's open - market net injection was 9406 billion yuan. The 9 - month LPR remained stable. The year - on - year growth rate of total social electricity consumption in August was 5% [14][19]. - **US**: The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 decreased to 218,000. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%. The core PCE price index was slightly higher than expected [13][19]. - **EU**: The September consumer confidence index improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI declined [13][19]. - **Germany**: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the October Gfk consumer confidence index improved [19]. - **France**: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [19]. - **UK**: The September manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Multiple important economic data will be released next week, including China's September official manufacturing PMI, the UK's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's September unemployment rate, the US's September ADP employment, and the unemployment rate, etc. [81]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in copper prices and reflects on the broader implications of monetary policy and commodity price fluctuations, particularly in the context of historical events and economic cycles. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The article highlights the cyclical nature of commodity prices, noting that significant drops in prices often begin with gold, which is tied to the dollar's value [3][5][21] - It references the historical context of commodity price movements, including the rise of oil prices post-911 and the subsequent financial crises that have influenced market dynamics [2][10][19] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The discussion includes the role of the Federal Reserve in managing economic crises through monetary policy, emphasizing that the printing of money does not necessarily lead to inflation if managed correctly [13][22][23] - It points out that the Federal Reserve's actions have historically aimed to prevent asset price collapses, indicating a strategic approach to maintaining economic stability [19][23] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The article suggests that geopolitical events, such as conflicts in the Middle East, have been manipulated to serve financial interests, impacting global commodity prices [7][8][10] - It also mentions the relationship between the U.S. and Russia during periods of high oil prices, indicating how financial incentives can shape international relations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The conclusion of the "Super Central Bank Week" has led to a shift in macro trading logic, with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut prompting adjustments in major asset pricing and the emergence of new trading strategies [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining before reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rally [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose significantly [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing varied performances among non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Trends - Commodity price movements were divergent, with gold experiencing profit-taking and high volatility, while copper prices fell sharply, negatively impacting the non-ferrous sector [1] - Oil prices remained weak, contributing to a notable decline in the CRB index for the week [1] - In the domestic market, a "de-involution" trend led to strong gains in black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, with glass and soda ash also rising [1] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with forward contracts under pressure, and stock indices displaying divergence, particularly with growth stocks showing resilience while value stocks fell sharply [1] - The Wind commodity index recorded a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 sectors rising and 6 sectors declining [1] - The overall commodity market exhibited a pattern of internal strength and external weakness, with precious metals retreating and non-ferrous metals declining significantly, while coal, coke, steel, and non-metallic building materials surged due to the de-involution trend [1] Future Outlook - As the rate cut process is halfway paused before a potential restart, global macro trading logic is expected to gradually shift [1] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is anticipated to influence commodities through multiple channels, with overall positive effects but varying impacts across different commodities [1] - Future commodity price trends are likely to diverge, reflecting different pricing and trading logic [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, with WTI crude closing at $62.68 per barrel, influenced by reduced concerns over "secondary tariffs" and contract rollovers [3][5] - The market's initial fear of tariff increases affecting oil demand has eased, leading to a decrease in upward pressure on oil prices [3] - The short-term fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to trading activities rather than a change in long-term trends [5] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 1.06%, closing at $3682.84 per ounce, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5] - Despite a temporary drop after the Fed's announcement, the market is stabilizing and seeking a new support level, with expectations of further rate cuts this year [3] - The long-term support for gold prices is driven by monetary policy easing, which has contributed to a 39% increase in gold prices this year [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices have risen by 0.49%, nearing $10,000 per ton, with expectations of a supply shortage and recovery in global manufacturing next year [4] - Citigroup's report indicates that while demand may face pressure in the coming months, copper prices are expected to reach $12,000 per ton next year [4] - The anticipated average copper price for the fourth quarter is projected to be around $10,000 per ton, reflecting a stable market response to future supply-demand dynamics [4]