Energy - Goldman Sachs predicts that natural gas prices will decline continuously by 2026/2027, with the average price of Dutch TTF natural gas expected to be $9.70/$6.55 per million British thermal units [2] - Azerbaijan's Energy Minister reported that Azerbaijan exported 7.8 million tons of oil from January to April [2] - Saudi Aramco executives stated that despite recent market volatility, the fundamentals of the oil market remain robust [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ will halt production increases in August [5] - The Central Bank of Russia expects oil prices to stabilize around $60 per barrel as trade restrictions ease and demand recovers [5] - Officials indicated that Iraq will reduce its crude oil exports to 3.2 million barrels per day in May and June [5] Other - Panama authorities reported that the average number of ships passing through the Panama Canal in April was 34 per day, an increase from 33.7 in March [3] - Commodity trader Louis Dreyfus Company forecasts that the global sugar supply balance will shift from a shortage of 5.2 million tons in 2024/2025 to a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2025/2026 [4] - Citigroup expects gold prices to consolidate in the range of $3,000 to $3,300 in the coming months, lowering the three-month target price to $3,150 [5]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices fell sharply, reaching a daily low of $3207 per ounce, while both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by over 3% [1] - Saudi Aramco reported an increase in sales volumes for natural gas, refined products, and chemical products in the first quarter [2] - Major oilfield service companies in the U.S. indicated a challenging period ahead due to recent declines in oil prices, leading producers to reduce drilling activities and reconsider budgets [2] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister hinted at increasing corn imports as part of U.S. trade negotiations [2] - The analysis firm APK-Inform revised Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast down by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons [2] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029 [3]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月9日） 7. 马士基首席执行官：美国和胡塞武装之间的协议意味着什么具有很高不确定性；我们预计红海将在 2025年全年保持航运封闭。 1. 美国财政部网站发布关于伊朗的新制裁措施。 2. 哈萨克斯坦：没有计划在5月份削减石油产量。 3. 消息人士：美俄正在探索恢复向欧洲输送天然气的途径。 4. 印尼能源部长：印尼计划将部分燃料进口从新加坡转向美国，作为关税谈判的一部分。 5. 世界黄金协会：金价的上涨速度令人担心它的持久性。 6. 世界黄金协会：上月是自2022年3月以来最强劲的资金流入，加上金价持续飙升，推动全球黄金ETF 的资产管理规模达到3790亿美元，当月增长了10%。 ...

Summary of Commodity Market Outlook and Strategy Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the sugar market, particularly the white sugar sector, and discusses the broader agricultural commodity market including corn and oilseeds. Key Points on Sugar Market - **Market Characteristics**: The white sugar market in 2024 is characterized by a bearish trend, testing production costs across various regions, with prices fluctuating from 20 cents to 16 cents per pound [1][3]. - **Brazil's Production Impact**: Brazil's rainfall in Q1 2025 was poor, affecting sugarcane growth, but April's rainfall returned to historical averages. Sugar production is expected to decrease by 1.8%, with total crushing estimated at 590 million tons and sugar output around 4 million tons [1][6]. - **Global Supply Dynamics**: The global sugar supply is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed state, with India and Thailand's new sugar seasons expected to yield optimistic results, potentially increasing global sugar availability [1][7][8]. - **Domestic Market Conditions**: China faces a sugar deficit of approximately 4.9 million tons, with over 2 million tons still unresolved. The domestic market is influenced by new syrup policies and the potential recovery of market share by beet sugar [1][10][11]. - **Price Projections**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 14 to 20 cents per pound, while domestic prices are projected to range from 5,500 to 6,200 yuan, indicating a narrow trading range [1][14][15]. Key Points on Corn and Other Commodities - **Corn Market Outlook**: The corn market is at a cyclical low, with expectations of a supply-demand gap persisting. The market outlook remains positive for Q2 and Q3, despite rising cost pressures as new corn enters the market [1][17][18]. - **Oilseed Market Trends**: The oilseed market is currently unclear, with rising import costs affecting price levels. The demand from Chinese oil mills will significantly influence the market dynamics [1][28][29]. - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The soybean market is expected to see a decrease in imports, with domestic supply remaining ample. The overall sentiment is cautious, with procurement strategies being conservative due to fluctuating profitability [1][31][34]. Additional Insights - **Syrup Policy Effects**: The introduction of new syrup policies has led to significant changes in the market, impacting the supply chain and price trends. The long-term effects of these policies need further observation [1][11][12]. - **Weather Impact on Production**: Weather conditions, particularly rainfall in key producing regions, will play a crucial role in determining future production levels and market prices [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment and Speculation**: The market is currently experiencing speculative trading, with participants closely monitoring policy changes and weather forecasts to gauge future price movements [1][14][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and interdependencies within the agricultural commodity markets, particularly focusing on sugar and corn, while also addressing broader market trends and potential investment strategies.

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 to $9,330 and $9,150 per ton, respectively, from previous forecasts of $8,620 and $8,370 [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production for the week ending May 2 was the lowest since January 24, 2025, while EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories reached the highest level since October 28, 2022 [1] Group 2 - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months, with J.P. Morgan indicating there is still room for further accumulation [2] - Citigroup lowered its Brent crude oil pricing for the 0-3 month period from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel [2] - The European Union is considering sanctions against the Russian oil company Lukoil's Dubai branch [2] - Sources indicate that Guinea has initiated the process to revoke EGA's mining license [2] - The Egyptian Supply Minister stated that the strategic reserves of sugar in Egypt are sufficient to last for 14.1 months [2]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月7日） 能源： 1. 市场消息：俄罗斯考虑在油价下跌时收紧预算规则。 2. 凯投宏观：将布油年底价格预期从70美元下调至60美元。将2026年底的价格预测从每桶60美元下调至 50美元。 其他： 1. 沙特内阁声明：沙特阿拉伯将与美国在采矿和矿产资源领域讨论并签署协议。 2. 乌克兰最高拉达外交政策委员会批准矿产协议草案。 3. 普渡大学：4月份美国农民信心上升。 4. 墨西哥农业部长：与美国同行并达成了对两国都有益的协议。 5. 英媒：英美将于本周达成贸易协定 降低汽车和钢铁关税。 6. 俄罗斯表示，伊朗和其他国家有合法权利发展自己的核能项目。 3. 哈萨克斯坦考虑履行欧佩克+减产义务的选项。 4. 欧盟委员会：委员会将于6月提议，到2027年底逐步停止所有剩余的俄罗斯天然气和液化天然气进 口。 5. EIA下调今明两年美、布两油价格预期；上调今年全球原油需求预期，下调明年预期。 ...

Energy - Petrobras, the Brazilian state oil company, has lowered diesel prices [2] - EU officials announced that the European Commission will propose a legal ban on imports of natural gas and LNG from Russia by the end of 2027 [2] - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price for June Arab Light crude oil to the US at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus sour crude benchmark, and to Asia at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [2] - Apollo Global Management's economist Torsten Slok indicated that the significant drop in oil prices may lead US producers to cut production and potentially seek layoffs [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish structural outlook on gold, forecasting a price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [3] - The Reserve Bank of India reported holding 879.59 tons of gold as part of its foreign exchange reserves as of March 31, with domestic holdings at 511.99 tons [3] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has initiated a new round of dialogue with rebel groups [3] - The President of Peru announced a curfew in areas where miners were killed, leading to a 30-day suspension of all mining activities in the Pataz region [3] Agriculture - Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR reported that the FOB price for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% fell by $2 to $247 per ton from late March to early April [4] - Kazakhstan plans to increase sunflower planting area by 9.5% by 2025 to diversify its crops [4] - The Thai Ministry of Commerce aims to achieve a rice export target of 7.5 million tons this year [4] Trade Policy - India proposed to implement reciprocal zero tariffs on a certain quantity of US auto parts and steel [5] - Sources revealed that the US recently rejected Japan's request for a comprehensive exemption from the 10% reciprocal tariffs and tariffs targeting specific countries [5]

Energy - As of the week ending April 29, the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 2,716 contracts to 116,599 contracts [1] - As of the week ending April 29, the net long positions in natural gas futures on NYMEX and ICE decreased by 14,904 contracts to 185,432 contracts [1] - OPEC+ agreed to continue accelerating production in June and may approve an additional increase of 410,000 barrels per day for July [3] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast based on the assumption of increased OPEC+ supply [3] - Barclays has also reduced its Brent crude price expectations for this year and next due to OPEC+ accelerating production [3] - Baker Hughes reported that U.S. drilling companies have reduced the number of oil and gas rigs for the first time in three weeks [3] - The six-month Brent crude oil price spread has turned into a futures premium for the first time since December 2023 [3] Precious Metals and Mining - As of the week ending April 29, the speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 9,857 contracts to 115,865 contracts [2] - Global central banks purchased a net of 17 tons of gold in March [3] - Bank of America reported that gold experienced weekly outflows for the first time since January [3] - Following China's export restrictions, rare earth prices surged over 210% [3] - The EU saw a sharp decline in steel exports to the U.S., losing 1 million tons and 2 billion euros [3] - The Indian Ministry of Mines projected iron ore production to reach 289 million tons in the fiscal year 2024-25, up from 277 million tons in 2023-24 [3]

点击 国家能源局 关注 沂 ZIZ 关于国家能源安全重要论述 (一百零九) 粮食、能源安全是全球发展 领域最紧迫的挑战。当前危机根 源不是生产和需求问题,而是供 应链出了问题,国际合作受到干 扰。解决之道在于各国在联合国 等多边国际组织的协调下,加强 市场监管合作,构建大宗商品合 上小型半香 神机工站 华宁 -《共迎时代挑战,共建美好未来》 (2022年11月15日），《人民日报》2022 年11月16日 （来源：中国电力报） TFT/十大分, 廷权开以、 尽、 可持续的大宗商品市场,共同畅 通供应链,稳定市场价格。要坚 决反对将粮食、能源问题政治 化、工具化、武器化,撤销单边 制裁措施,取消对相关科技合作 限制。减少化石能源消费、向清 洁能源转型进程要平衡考虑各方 面因素，确保转型过程中不影响 经济和民生。 ...

Energy - The U.S. Department of the Interior is preparing to conduct a comprehensive assessment of oil and gas resources on public lands for the first time [1] - Turkey's energy minister announced that the national energy company TPAO expects to finalize an offshore exploration agreement with Bulgaria next month, with the Sakarya gas field producing approximately 9.5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day [1] Precious Metals and Mining - The International Copper Study Group forecasts a surplus of 61,000 tons in the global refined copper market by February 2025 [2] - The Indian government has notified that it will impose a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports for a period of 200 days [2] - Spot gold has surpassed the $3,500 per ounce mark for the first time, increasing by 2.14% in a single day, with a year-to-date increase of over $870; several gold jewelry brands have raised their prices by more than 1,060 yuan per gram in line with international gold price trends [2] Other - Iraq is set to avoid wheat imports for the third consecutive year [3] - The White House is accelerating the permitting process for 10 domestic mining projects [3] Oil and Gas - Pakistan has revised its oil reserves estimate upward by 23% [4] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced plans to reduce fuel tax exemptions starting in May [4] - Peskov stated that the ban on mutual strikes against energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine has expired [4] - Kazakhstan plans to export an additional 40,000 tons of gasoline in April, bringing the total export volume to 54,283 tons [4] - According to Nikkei News, the Japanese government and ruling party plan to provide subsidies starting in May to reduce gasoline prices by 10 yen per liter [4]