本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近年来在贸易摩擦背景下，提振内需、刺激消费成为市场中长期主线，不过形成鲜明对比的是，随着消费者结构和消费观念的改变， 美妆、 IP 潮玩、宠物经济等为代表的"新消费"逐渐成为消费新趋势，而白酒、餐饮、消费电子等传统消费依然承压。 2024年以来"新消费"行情已走出多只翻倍股、十倍股，如港股的老铺黄金(2782.21%)、泡泡玛特(1126.12%)、蜜雪冰城(124.81%)、毛戈平 (144.91%)、古茗(175.65%)等；A股的万辰集团(405%)、中宠宠物(160.10%)、会稽山(130.77%)、东鹏饮料(139.08%)等。 目前我国居民消费占GDP比重为38-40%，对比美国、日本的68-70%、55-60%，中长期仍有巨大提升空间。 在后发展阶段， "新消费"赛道有望 成为促消费的重要抓手，当前市场关注度较高的"新消费"赛道包括： 潮玩、茶饮、宠物、新型烟草、黄金珠宝等 ， 其中哪些 "新消费"领域有 望穿越经济周期？（ 点此查看名单 ） 01 从"生存型"向"悦己型"消费！"新消费"或仍处于中早期阶段！ 2024年有关部门主 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·服装家纺 水星家纺（603365） 家纺迎新机遇，看好龙头份额进一步提升 2025 年 06 月 03 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,211 | 4,193 | 4,669 | 5,193 | 5,783 | | 同比（%） | 14.93 | (0.42) | 11.33 | 11.23 | 11.38 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 379.08 | 366.65 | 399.13 | 448.26 | 497.35 | | 同比（%） | 36.23 | (3.28) | 8.86 | 12.31 | 10.95 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.52 | 1.71 | 1.89 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.12 | 13.56 | 12.46 | 11.09 | 10.00 | [Table_Ta ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful brand rejuvenation of Fenjiu in the Chinese liquor market, particularly among younger consumers, as evidenced by its ranking in the CBI500 list [2][5][17] - The white liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as oversupply and high inventory, leading to a competitive landscape where only a few brands thrive [5][7][28] - Fenjiu's strategy focuses on appealing to younger consumers by emphasizing product value and innovative marketing approaches [17][21][30] Group 1: Brand Performance - Fenjiu ranks 163rd in the CBI500 list, with a significant lead among new customers aged 18-24, reflecting its successful youth-oriented strategy [2][5] - The overall white liquor industry is struggling, with only eight brands making it to the CBI500 list, indicating a stark contrast to other sectors like 3C and apparel [5][6] - Fenjiu's revenue reached 319 billion in 2023, with a projected growth to 360.11 billion in 2024, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market [17][20] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The main consumer demographic for white liquor is shifting, with younger generations increasingly becoming the primary market, accounting for 34% of consumers born between 1985-1994 and 18% for those born after 1995 [11][13] - Young consumers prioritize taste and value over brand prestige, indicating a shift in purchasing criteria [13][18] - The demand for lower-alcohol options is rising, prompting brands to expand their product lines to cater to this preference [14][20] Group 3: Marketing and Distribution Strategies - Fenjiu employs a multi-faceted marketing approach, utilizing social media and e-commerce platforms to engage younger consumers and create a complete consumption loop [21][22] - The brand has successfully launched campaigns that resonate with younger audiences, such as the "white liquor innovation" initiatives, which have garnered significant attention online [21][24] - Fenjiu's collaboration with platforms like Tmall has resulted in substantial growth, with a 76% increase in brand performance during promotional events [24][26] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Directions - The white liquor industry is entering a new cycle characterized by market segmentation and consumption upgrades, necessitating a comprehensive value redefinition [28][30] - Companies must adapt to changing consumer preferences and enhance their product offerings to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [30][31] - The future competition will focus on flavor innovation, channel diversification, cultural relevance, and international expansion [30][31]

Core Insights - The 2025 "New First-Tier Cities Charm Ranking" highlights the increasing differentiation among cities in China as they transition to a consumption-driven society, with cities like Linyi and Heze showing significant improvements in their rankings [1][9] - The ranking methodology emphasizes commercial consumption over traditional economic indicators like GDP, reflecting a shift in urban competitiveness [3][4] Group 1: Ranking Overview - Linyi has returned to the second-tier city status, ranking closely behind Yantai, and has jumped 8 places from the previous year, while Heze has surged 20 places [1] - The ranking includes 15 new first-tier cities and 30 second-tier cities, with Linyi and Heze being notable examples of cities that have improved their standings significantly [2] Group 2: Evaluation Criteria - The ranking system prioritizes third-sector activities, particularly commercial consumption, over industrial output, indicating a shift towards a more service-oriented urban economy [3][4] - New metrics introduced in the ranking include factors such as the scale of live-streaming influencers, online business diversity, and nighttime economic activity, reflecting the evolving nature of urban attractiveness [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Linyi's retail sales reached 343.38 billion yuan in 2024, ranking fourth in Shandong, while its economic output is significantly lower than Yantai's, indicating untapped consumption potential [6][7] - The city has a third-sector contribution of 51.2% to its GDP, which is comparable to other industrial cities, suggesting a balanced economic structure [7][8] Group 4: Urban Development Trends - The ranking reflects a broader trend where cities with strong service sectors and vibrant consumer markets are becoming more attractive, especially to younger populations [5][8] - Linyi's logistics and transportation infrastructure has facilitated economic dynamism, with a notable increase in online retail sales driven by live-streaming commerce [8][9] Group 5: Consumption as an Economic Driver - Consumption is increasingly recognized as a primary engine for economic growth in China, with consumer spending contributing 82.5% to GDP growth in 2023 [8][9] - The shift towards a consumption-oriented economy is evident as cities adapt to new consumer preferences and market dynamics, with Linyi's rise serving as a case study [9]

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]

Core Insights - The rise of "Yun Gui Chuan Bistro" reflects a shift in urban consumer behavior towards a blend of cultural experience and social interaction in dining [2][10][27] Group 1: Market Trends - The "Yun Gui Chuan Bistro" concept has seen explosive growth, with a reported annual increase of over 150% in cities like Shanghai and Chengdu since 2022 [6][7] - The popularity of bistros indicates a new dining trend where consumers seek both casual dining and a sense of ritual in their eating experiences [10][27] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Urban consumers are increasingly engaging in "装货式消费" (showing off consumption), which emphasizes the importance of aesthetic and experiential dining [10][18] - The bistro atmosphere, characterized by dim lighting and cultural decor, enhances the dining experience, encouraging social media sharing and personal branding [11][13] Group 3: Culinary Innovation - "Yun Gui Chuan Bistro" offers a unique flavor system that combines traditional regional dishes with creative presentations, such as pairing Guizhou sour soup fish with Sichuan spicy rabbit heads [5][19] - The menu features innovative dishes that attract consumers, with names and presentations designed to be visually appealing for social media [14][19] Group 4: Social Dynamics - The bistro dining experience fosters social interaction, with diners exchanging dipping sauce recipes and engaging in lively discussions about food [13][19] - The concept serves as a "third space" for consumers, allowing them to escape the fast-paced urban lifestyle while enjoying a relaxed yet stylish dining environment [16][21]

聚焦"悦己"和"质价比" 2024年以来，从泡泡玛特股价连创新高到老铺黄金和蜜雪冰城登陆港股后涨势如虹，再到A股宠物概念炒作不断，资本 对"新消费叙事"的追捧有增无减，引发广泛讨论的同时也在资本市场激起波澜。 对于新消费，目前各界并无统一定义。嘉实基金大消费研究总监吴越认为，消费是典型的需求决定论行业。当代消费者 不再满足于单纯的物质消费，而是追求更高层次的精神享受和个性化体验，从"悦人"走向"悦己"，由此也带来了新消费 板块的崛起。 吴越认为，新消费是相较于传统的刚需性消费或必选消费而言，是伴随经济发展、消费理念迭代和消费偏好变迁涌现的 新型消费业态，包括"悦己"经济下更注重情绪价值的潮玩、文旅、IP、宠物、医美等情绪类消费和精神类消费，也包括 追求更高性价比的"性价比消费"，还包括基于"科技+消费"全面融合所带来的AI端侧落地、智能驾驶、智慧家居等。 【导读】新消费概念火热，基金经理谈投资机遇 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 今年以来，围绕情绪价值、悦己消费等方面的讨论明显增多。资本市场上，潮玩IP、谷子经济、黄金首饰、医美等新消 费持续火热，相关公司股价表现抢眼，诞生了多个十倍股，吸足了市场眼球。 在受 ...

奢侈品"越涨越买"法则失灵了？ 近日，法国奢侈品牌香奈儿发布2024年财报，自2020年疫情期间门店关停以来，香奈儿首次出现营收与利润双 双下滑的情况。 从股价表现来看，今年以来，多家国际奢侈品牌巨头股价接连下跌，截至5月25日，开云集团、LVMH集团年 内股价跌超20%，普拉达港股年内股价跌超13%。 香奈儿营收首次下滑 近日，法国奢侈品牌香奈儿发布2024年财报。2024年，香奈儿全年营收同比减少5.3%，降至187亿美元（约合 人民币1347亿元）。营业利润和净利润分别下滑30%和28.2%，分别降至44.8亿美元和34亿美元。 财报显示，按地区分，香奈儿包括中国在内的亚洲市场销售额下降9.3%，美洲市场下滑4.3%，欧洲市场销售 收入则增长了1.2%。 此前除了2020年受疫情影响出现收入下滑，香奈儿自2017年首次对外发布业绩报告至2023年，年销售额均呈增 长状态。 对此，首席财务官Philippe Blondiaux表示，美国市场面临着相当困难的宏观经济环境，但公司仍看好其长期潜 力。同时，香奈儿计划在中国市场继续扩大销售网络，2025年将在中国再开设15家精品店，包括南京、成都等 城市。 为应 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Steady Medical, and Bosideng, among others [12][36][37]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 23% year-on-year to $1.473 billion, driven by significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1][17]. - The Technical Apparel segment, led by the Arc'teryx brand, saw a revenue increase of 28% to $664 million in Q1 2025, with a notable profit margin improvement [2][21]. - The Outdoor Performance segment, centered around the Salomon brand, achieved a 25% revenue growth to $502 million, benefiting from new store openings and strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales [3][26]. - The Ball & Racquet segment, featuring Wilson, experienced a 12% revenue increase to $306 million, with a long-term growth forecast of low to mid-single digits [4][29]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sportswear sector, projecting a revenue growth of 15% to 17% for Amer Sports in 2025, with specific segments expected to outperform [1][17]. Summary by Sections Amer Sports Performance - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 23% to $1.473 billion, with regional growth of +12% in the Americas, +43% in Greater China, +12% in EMEA, and +49% in Asia-Pacific [1][17]. - Adjusted gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points to 58%, and adjusted operating profit margin rose by 4.9 percentage points to 15.8% [1][17]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was $135 million, a significant increase from $5 million in Q1 2024 [1][17]. Technical Apparel - Revenue for the Technical Apparel segment grew by 28% to $664 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 23.8% [2][21]. - Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 31%, while wholesale revenue grew by 22% [2][21]. - The Asia-Pacific region led growth, followed by Greater China [2][21]. Outdoor Performance - The Outdoor Performance segment's revenue rose by 25% to $502 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 14.7% [3][26]. - DTC sales surged by 68%, driven by new store openings in Greater China and Asia-Pacific [3][26]. - The Americas region's performance was stable, primarily due to the divestiture of the Enve business [3][26]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue for the Ball & Racquet segment increased by 12% to $306 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 6.6% [4][29]. - The growth was supported by strong sales in racquets, golf products, and apparel [4][29]. - Long-term revenue growth is expected to be low to mid-single digits [4][29]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [5][34]. - The sportswear sector is expected to benefit from government policy support and increased participation in sports activities [5][34].

在圆桌对话——《如何掘金大消费》中，鹏华量化投资部基金经理张羽翔先生分享了自己对大消费行业 的看法。 专题：2025基金高质量发展大会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 5月24日，由新浪财经主办的2025基金高质量发展大会在深圳隆重启幕。大会汇聚学术界顶尖专家、公 私募基金领军人物、券商领袖及首席经济学家等业界翘楚，共话基金行业高质量发展新路径。 新消费也符合当下年轻人的特点，悦己消费和情绪消费，在当下新的消费特征滋生了新消费，而且即便 是在传统的赛道，只要有新的定位、新的渠道、新的模式，也可以定义为新消费。比如黄金珠宝领域， 卖黄金珠宝的公司，在以前的上市公司有很多，但却没有新的黄金标的比较瞩目。传统黄金珠宝的企 业，以加盟的方式或者直营的模式，但是单店的盈利体验非常好，这种消费还是符合当下特点，反映当 前消费结构性分化的特点，而且这种趋势会长期化。 A股市场情绪回升牛股频现，政策暖风频吹下反弹行情启动，开户跟进>> 鹏华量化投资部基金经 责任编辑：何俊熹 理张羽翔 新消费的特点取决于新的产品的定位、新的渠道、新的消费人群的精准定位。以黄金、泡泡玛特为代表 的新消费 ...