免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 端在期货 国债期货日报 2025/10/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.145 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 66248 | -9973↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.735 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 40005 | -5111↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.358 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 241 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/10/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) 1977511 | 3,068.00 | +21↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | | -18322↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -67821 | +22606↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -52 | +5↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 148982 | -2414↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 179 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,260.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,344 | +21↑ | | | 广州 ...

Core Insights - The establishment of new policy financial tools in China aims to support national strategic infrastructure projects, technological innovation, and stabilize foreign trade, injecting strong momentum into the development of the real economy [1] Group 1: Implementation of New Policy Financial Tools - Major projects such as the Wuxi to Yixing intercity rail transit and the Jingling Reservoir in Zhejiang have become the first batch of projects utilizing the new policy financial tools, providing a solid foundation for accelerated construction [4] - As of now, three policy banks—China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank of China, and Export-Import Bank of China—have collectively injected over 330 billion yuan into the new policy financial tools, which is expected to drive a total project investment of 4.8 trillion yuan [7] Group 2: Investment Focus and Areas - The new policy financial tools have invested 250 billion yuan in 12 major economic provinces, accounting for over 75% of the total investment, focusing on traditional infrastructure, foreign trade, and emerging sectors such as digital economy and artificial intelligence [9] - Projects like the new energy battery project in Xiangyang, the AI research base in Nanning, and the integrated application pilot for smart connected vehicles in Jinan are advancing rapidly with the support of policy funds [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - As a significant macro-control measure, the National Development and Reform Commission, along with relevant parties, established the new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, all aimed at supplementing project capital [14]

Core Insights - The establishment of new policy financial tools is a clear directive from the central government aimed at supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][2] - The new policy financial tools are designed to address funding shortages for infrastructure projects, thereby facilitating targeted support for major national projects and guiding investments towards technology innovation, consumption upgrades, and green low-carbon initiatives [1][3] Group 1: Implementation and Impact - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been initiated, with three main entities responsible for the deployment [2] - As of October 17, 2023, the National Development Bank has disbursed 1,893.5 billion yuan, primarily supporting major economic provinces and increasing support for private investment and new productive forces, which is expected to stimulate a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [2][3] - The Agricultural Development Bank has completed 1,001.11 billion yuan in fund disbursement, supporting 562 projects and anticipating a total project investment exceeding 1.26 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 2: Focus Areas - The new policy financial tools prioritize investments in 12 major economic provinces, with significant allocations made to these regions [3] - There is a strong emphasis on private investment, with the National Development Bank having allocated 545.2 billion yuan to private sector projects, representing 28.8% of its total disbursement [3][4] - The inclusion of private enterprises, particularly in technology and consumption upgrade sectors, is expected to ensure that policy benefits reach eligible major enterprises and private projects [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index decreased by 0.60% as of October 22, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) also fell by 0.60%, with the latest price at 1.48 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.84% over the past three months, ranking 3rd out of 6 comparable funds [3] - The Financial Technology ETF had a turnover rate of 1.87% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 44.5643 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 214 million yuan over the past month, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - Shanghai's GDP for the first three quarters reached 40,721.17 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, with the tertiary industry growing by 5.9% [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, which is expected to drive total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [4] - As of October 17, 2025, the new policy financial tools have already been deployed with 1,893.5 billion yuan, while the agricultural development tools have supported 562 projects with an investment of 1,001.11 billion yuan, potentially driving over 1.26 trillion yuan in project investments [4] Group 3 - The new policy financial tools are seen as a significant measure to promote effective investment and provide broader opportunities for banking financial institutions [5] - The Financial Technology ETF has experienced a notable growth of 10.11 billion yuan in scale over the past three months, ranking 2nd out of 6 comparable funds [5] - The ETF has also seen an increase of 5 million shares in the last two weeks, again ranking 2nd out of 6 comparable funds [5] - The index closely tracks the performance of listed companies involved in the financial technology sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 55.55% of the index as of September 30, 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan have been officially announced and are aimed at supporting project capital requirements, with nearly 300 billion yuan already allocated as of October 17 [1][2] Investment Allocation - As of October 17, the China Development Bank has allocated 1,893.5 billion yuan and the Agricultural Development Bank has allocated 1,001.11 billion yuan, with a total of nearly 3,000 billion yuan expected to stimulate total project investments of 28 trillion yuan and 12.6 trillion yuan respectively [1] - The Export-Import Bank has indicated that 83% of its allocations are directed towards major economic provinces, with 40% of the funding supporting private capital participation and focusing on digital economy and artificial intelligence projects [1][2] Sector Focus - The new financial tools are designed to support eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure for consumption, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [5][9] - The Agricultural Development Bank has invested 671.36 billion yuan in 407 projects across 12 major economic provinces, emphasizing support for emerging industries [2][5] Economic Impact - Analysts predict that the current round of policy financial tools could leverage an additional 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan in new credit growth, potentially boosting economic performance in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2][9] - The tools are expected to address both short-term economic stability and long-term structural adjustments, enhancing investment confidence in key sectors [9][10] Market Dynamics - The introduction of these financial tools is seen as a response to the "asset shortage" phenomenon in the financial market, as they expand investment opportunities into more market-oriented sectors [10] - The mechanism of these tools aims to alleviate capital shortages for major projects, thereby activating the overall credit cycle and directing funds towards effective demand areas [10]

央视网消息：为进一步支持国家战略基础设施项目、科技创新、稳定外贸等，我国创设的新型政策 性金融工具正在各地加速落地，为实体经济发展注入强劲动力。 ...

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan have been officially announced and are aimed at supporting project capital requirements, with nearly 300 billion yuan already allocated as of October 17 [1][2][3] Investment Allocation - As of October 17, the China Development Bank has allocated 1,893.5 billion yuan and the Agricultural Development Bank has allocated 1,001.11 billion yuan, with a total of nearly 3,000 billion yuan expected to stimulate total project investments of approximately 4.06 trillion yuan [1][2] - The China Export-Import Bank has emphasized that 83% of its allocations are directed towards major economic provinces, with 40% of the funding aimed at private sector participation and projects in digital economy and artificial intelligence [1][2] Focus Areas - The new financial tools are designed to support eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure for consumption, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [3][6] - A minimum of 20% of the funding is mandated to be directed towards private enterprises, indicating a strong push for private sector involvement [3][6] Economic Impact - Analysts predict that the current round of policy financial tools could leverage an additional 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan in new credit growth, significantly boosting economic performance in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2][6] - The tools are expected to provide both short-term support for economic growth and long-term structural adjustments, enhancing investment confidence in key sectors [5][6] Addressing Asset Scarcity - The introduction of these financial tools is seen as a solution to the "asset scarcity" phenomenon in the financial market, as they expand investment opportunities into emerging sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [7][8] - By addressing capital shortages for major projects, these tools are anticipated to activate overall credit cycles and direct funds towards effective demand areas, thereby alleviating structural issues in the market [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate investment, particularly in infrastructure and high-tech sectors, despite a slight decline in overall investment growth in the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Investment Growth and Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 371.535 billion yuan in the first three quarters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, primarily due to the impact of real estate development investment [2]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to previous periods [2]. - Equipment purchase investment maintained a growth rate of over 10%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% in the first three quarters, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth [2][5]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - The newly established policy financial tools have already allocated nearly 300 billion yuan, with expectations to drive total project investments of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan [5]. - The central government has arranged an additional 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support debt resolution and major project construction [6][5]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, contributing 0.2 percentage points to overall investment growth, with private investment in infrastructure increasing by 7.0% [2][3]. - Local governments are accelerating major project construction, with significant investments in transportation and public facilities [7][8]. Future Outlook - Investment growth is expected to rely more on new productive forces and addressing social welfare gaps, with a stabilization and potential recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - Measures to enhance private investment participation in major projects are being developed, including support for private investment in key sectors like railways and nuclear power [8].

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan have been officially announced and are aimed at supporting project capital requirements, with nearly 300 billion yuan already allocated as of October 17 [1][2]. Investment Allocation - As of October 17, the China Development Bank has allocated 1,893.5 billion yuan and the Agricultural Development Bank has allocated 1,001.11 billion yuan, with a total of nearly 3,000 billion yuan expected to stimulate total project investments of approximately 4.06 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The China Export-Import Bank has indicated that 83% of its funding is directed towards major economic provinces, with 40% of the funding supporting private capital participation and projects in digital economy and artificial intelligence sectors [1][2]. Focus Areas - The new financial tools are designed to support eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure for consumption, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [5][7]. - The tools require that 20% of the funding be directed towards private enterprises, indicating a strong push for private sector involvement [5]. Economic Impact - Analysts predict that the current round of policy financial tools could leverage an additional 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan in new credit growth, significantly boosting economic performance in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2][4]. - The tools are expected to provide both short-term support for economic growth and long-term structural adjustments, particularly in emerging industries [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of these financial tools is seen as a response to the "asset shortage" phenomenon in the financial market, as they expand investment opportunities into more market-oriented sectors [9][10]. - The targeted allocation of funds is anticipated to enhance investment confidence among various market participants, thereby stimulating investment in key sectors [7][9].