Core Viewpoint - The company is leveraging its established supply chain, product matrix, and technological reserves in automotive thermal management to explore applications in non-automotive sectors, specifically in data centers, communication cabinets, and energy storage [1] Group 1: Business Development - The company has achieved small-scale production of electronic water pumps, rubber hoses, and nylon pipes for liquid cooling applications in data centers and energy storage cabinets [1] - The board of directors has approved an investment of 50 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on the research, production, and sales of liquid cooling components and products for energy storage and servers [1] - The company aims to continuously explore new development directions to lay a foundation for long-term sustainable growth [1]

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 10 月 09 日 永和股份 (605020) ——制冷剂价格上行叠加邵武永和持续盈利，25Q3 业绩 同环比提升，液冷再添成长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,606 | 2,445 | 5,875 | 6,586 | 7,061 | | 同比增长率（%） | 5.4 | 12.4 | 27.6 | 12.1 | 7.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 251 | 271 | 646 | 923 | 1,215 | | 同比增长率（%） | 36.8 | 140.8 | 156.9 | 42.9 | 31.7 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 1.81 | 2.39 | | 毛利率（%） | 17.7 | 25.3 | 24.6 | 27.7 | 30.9 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a new high of 34.56 HKD, with a year-to-date gain of nearly 200% [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, the stock is up 5.23%, trading at 34.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 58.94 million HKD [1] - On September 30, Tsugami Machine Tool China repurchased 350,000 shares for 11.40 million HKD, marking the 50th buyback this year, totaling 7.29 million shares repurchased for a total amount of 164 million HKD [1] - CICC has initiated coverage on Tsugami Machine Tool China, highlighting it as a leading player in the mid-to-high-end CNC lathe market with strong internal competitiveness, assigning an "outperform industry" rating [1] Industry Summary - The market has not yet fully recognized the growth potential from liquid cooling and robotics, which CICC views as significant opportunities for the company [1]

消息面上，9月30日，津上机床中国耗资1140.12万港元回购35万股。据统计，今年以来该股累计进行50 次回购，合计回购728.80万股，累计回购金额1.64亿港元。中金此前发布研报称，津上机床中国是中高 端数控车床领军企业，内生竞争力突出，首次覆盖给予"跑赢行业"评级。市场暂未充分重视液冷、机器 人的增量潜力，而该行坚定看好其带来的机会。 津上机床中国(01651)再涨超6%，高见34.56港元再创新高，年内累计涨幅接近200%。截至发稿，涨 5.23%，报34.2港元，成交额5893.65万港元。 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of precision electronic components such as FPC, connectors, LED backlight modules, and more, serving various industries including consumer electronics, telecommunications, new energy, automotive electronics, industrial, and medical sectors [1] - The company has grown to become a leading player in the precision electronic components industry, leveraging advantages in product innovation, production scale, customer resources, and business diversification [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 1.175 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.710 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company peaked at 202 million yuan in 2021 but has been declining, with a projected loss of 40.144 million yuan in 2024 due to increased market competition and rising operating expenses [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 568 million yuan (up 41.96% year-on-year) and a net profit of 11.178 million yuan (up 190.94% year-on-year), indicating a potential turning point in performance [1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow significantly, with the global data center liquid cooling market projected to increase from 2.6 billion USD in 2023 to 7.8 billion USD in 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 24.4% [2] - The company has begun mass shipments of liquid cooling structural components and is expanding its production capacity to meet the growing demand in the AI server liquid cooling sector [2] - The company is also developing system-level solutions for liquid cooling applications, including high-capacity optical modules, leveraging its expertise in connector and cooling design [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 21 million yuan, 85 million yuan, and 141 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.36, and 0.60 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 523, 127, and 76 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable outlook for the liquid cooling industry and the company's positioning within it [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in precision electronic components, with a diverse product range including FPC, connectors, and LED backlight modules, serving various industries such as consumer electronics, telecommunications, new energy, automotive electronics, industrial, and medical sectors [5]. - Revenue has grown from 1.175 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.710 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.83%. However, net profit has declined from a peak of 202 million yuan in 2021 to a loss of 40.0144 million yuan in 2024 due to increased competition and rising expenses [5]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 568 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.96%, and a net profit of 11.1781 million yuan, up 190.94%, indicating a potential turning point in performance [5]. Market Performance - The global data center liquid cooling market is projected to grow from 2.6 billion USD in 2023 to 7.8 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 24.4%, driven by increasing computational power demands and stricter PUE policies [6]. Liquid Cooling Business - The company has begun mass shipments of liquid cooling structural components and is expanding its production capacity to meet the growing market demand. The liquid cooling business is in a phase of gradual ramp-up and customer expansion [7]. - The company leverages its experience in IGBT cooling plates to enter the AI server liquid cooling market, with plans to provide system-level solutions through collaborative design and production capabilities [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21 million yuan, 85 million yuan, and 141 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.36, and 0.60 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 523, 127, and 76 for the same years [8].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report indicates that the valuation of electric equipment and semiconductors continues to be strong, with significant fluctuations in emerging industries, particularly in semiconductor and integrated circuit sectors, which saw increases of over 6% [8][11] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 outperforming small-cap indices, indicating a preference for larger, more stable companies in the current market environment [9][10] - The report highlights that essential consumer sectors, particularly food and beverage, exhibit favorable valuation metrics, suggesting potential for recovery and growth in these areas [10] Group 2: Banking Industry - The banking sector has maintained stable asset quality despite a declining GDP growth rate, attributed to a gradual clearing of non-performing loans over the past 15 years across various sectors [11][12] - The report notes that banks have proactively adjusted their loan structures to mitigate risks, which has helped maintain profitability and stability in their financial statements [12] - Investment recommendations focus on banks with strong asset quality and low valuation, such as Chengdu Bank and Changsha Bank, anticipating an improvement in the industry’s fundamentals in the coming year [13] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The report discusses the rapid development of efficient cooling technologies in data centers, particularly liquid cooling solutions, which address high energy consumption and heat generation issues [14][15] - It predicts that by 2024, China's computing centers will consume approximately 166 billion kWh of electricity, highlighting the growing demand for advanced cooling solutions [14] - The liquid cooling market is expected to see significant growth, with a forecasted demand for approximately 89,000 tons of cooling liquid by 2028 due to the expansion of AI data centers [16][17] Group 4: Communication Industry - The report emphasizes that liquid cooling is becoming the mainstream cooling technology for intelligent computing centers, driven by the increasing power density of AI chips [18] - It forecasts that the global market for liquid cooling solutions in data centers could reach $10 billion by 2026, with significant growth potential in both North America and China [18][19] - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while traditional overseas cooling companies have early advantages, domestic manufacturers are positioned to benefit from high cost-performance ratios and customization capabilities [19] Group 5: Media and Internet - The media sector has shown a slight increase of 0.47%, underperforming compared to broader market indices, indicating challenges in the current market environment [20] - The report notes a significant number of game approvals in September, suggesting a potential boost for the gaming industry, particularly with the upcoming National Day holiday [21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on gaming and media companies that are expected to benefit from product cycles and improving fundamentals, such as Kayi Network and Bilibili [22] Group 6: Social Services - The report highlights a partnership between Kevin Education and Zhiyuan Huazhang to establish a joint venture in AI education, expanding their service offerings [23] - Kevin Education has shown growth in revenue and profitability, indicating a positive trend in the K12 education sector [23] - The report suggests that the social services sector may benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and improving educational services [24] Group 7: Insurance Industry - The insurance sector has seen a 9.63% year-on-year increase in premium income as of August 2025, driven by growth in life insurance products [25] - The report indicates that the shift towards dividend insurance products is likely to continue, enhancing the sector's appeal in a low-interest-rate environment [25] Group 8: Specific Companies - Zhongtai Co., Ltd. is expected to see a profit increase of 71%-87% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by overseas orders and entry into the liquid cooling market [26][27] - Yunnan Copper Industry is positioned as a leading copper smelting company with a strong resource base and is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from its parent company [28][29][30] - The report projects Yunnan Copper's revenue to reach approximately 201.8 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit, reflecting strong operational performance [31]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively developing its liquid cooling server pipeline products and has entered the supply chains of several key players in the industry, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its market presence in liquid cooling solutions [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company's liquid cooling server pipeline products have been integrated into the supply chains of CoolerMaster, AVC, Invec, AVIC, Feirongda, and Baode Huannan [1] - The company is currently following customer processes for product development, which suggests a tailored approach to meet specific client needs [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company plans to increase its efforts in promoting and developing liquid cooling products, highlighting a commitment to innovation and market leadership [1] - Key areas of focus include liquid cooling for data servers, energy storage, and automotive fluid pipelines, which are critical sectors for future growth [1] - The company aims to enhance its customer service capabilities and market competitiveness, indicating a strategic emphasis on customer satisfaction and operational excellence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 8% and reaching 32.78 HKD, with a trading volume of 77.4634 million HKD, following the announcement of share buybacks and positive market outlook from CICC [1] Group 1: Company Performance - On September 26, Tsugami Machine Tool China announced a share buyback of 150,000 shares at a cost of 4.65614 million HKD [1] - Year-to-date, the company has conducted 48 buybacks, totaling 6.898 million shares and an aggregate amount of 151 million HKD [1] Group 2: Market Position and Outlook - CICC has initiated a "outperform industry" rating for the company, highlighting its strong competitive edge in the mid-to-high-end CNC lathe market [1] - The market has not fully recognized the growth potential in liquid cooling and robotics, which CICC views as significant opportunities for the company [1] - The company is actively expanding into AI liquid cooling connector processing, humanoid robot screw and reducer processing, indicating a strategic focus on emerging technologies [1] - Potential catalysts for growth include advancements in liquid cooling infrastructure and humanoid robot grinding machines [1]

Investment Highlights - The company is covered for the first time by CICC with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 38.60, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to FY2026 at 13x P/E [1] - The company is a leading player in the high-end CNC lathe market, with strong internal competitiveness [1] Business Performance - Established in 2003, the company is rooted in China's manufacturing sector, with a stable growth in its main business. The company is primarily focused on lathes (Swiss-type lathes) and supplemented by machining centers and grinding machines [1] - For FY2025 (Q2 2024 to Q1 2025), the company expects revenue of CNY 4.262 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 780 million, representing year-on-year growth of 36.6% and 63% respectively [1] Market Position and Expansion - The metal cutting machine tools are long-lasting general-purpose equipment, with demand influenced by capital expenditures in the automotive and general manufacturing sectors. The cumulative growth rate of metal cutting output in China from January to August 2025 is 14.6%, indicating a recovery in the industry [1] - The CNC machine tool market in China is projected to be CNY 71.5 billion in 2024, with the company holding a market share of 4.1% (by revenue), ranking first in the lathe market [1] - In March 2025, the company announced the construction of its sixth factory in Pinghu, which is expected to add approximately 3,000 units of assembly capacity per year [1] Profitability and Dividends - The company has shown significant growth in profitability, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 40% since FY2023, reflecting stable operational quality [2] New Growth Areas - Since 2024, the company has actively expanded into AI liquid cooling connector processing and humanoid robot components, such as lead screws and reducers [2] - The market has not fully recognized the incremental potential of liquid cooling and robotics, but the company remains optimistic about the opportunities these sectors present [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS of CNY 2.6 and CNY 3.1 for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with a CAGR of 22%. The target price of HKD 38.60 corresponds to a P/E of 13x for FY2026, with current prices reflecting P/E ratios of 11x and 10x for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% [2]