更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周一国债期货主力合约多数低开，早盘横向波动后有所回落，午后有一波快速拉升， 但很快回落，临近尾盘小幅回升，30 年期品种全天回落较多，其他品种维持震荡格 | | | | | 局，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.29%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 | | | | | 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 持平。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 ...

国泰中证500ETF（561350）跟踪的是中证500指数（000905），该指数覆盖医药、电子等成长性行业， 具有均衡的行业分布特征，旨在反映A股市场中小盘上市公司证券的整体表现。 中泰证券指出，随着12月中央经济工作会议临近，政策信号或逐步集中于结构优化与稳定增长两条主 线，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，财政政策大概率采取更积极姿态，在货币政策受汇率约束、宽松空 间有限的背景下，财政端将承担稳增长主力。在此阶段，市场关注的焦点或在于中央经济工作会议的财 政政策预期，若赤字率和财政支出力度如市场预期般进一步前置，中小市值、弹性更高的可选消费领域 （如文旅、线下零售等）有望获得阶段性交易机会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Performance - A-shares opened higher with major indices showing significant gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up over 3% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3927.19 points, up 0.62%, with a trading volume of 530 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13351.47 points, up 1.55%, with a trading volume of 759.8 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 3203.06 points, up 3.02%, with a trading volume of 379.5 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 297.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as energy metals, batteries, fertilizers, precious metals, power equipment, non-metallic materials, and chemical products saw significant gains, while sectors like railroads, banks, and electricity experienced declines [1] - The computing hardware concept surged, with Tianfu Communication hitting a 20% limit up and Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 8% to a new high [2] - The commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance, with Shunhao Co. achieving six consecutive limit-ups over seven days [2] Institutional Insights - Market expectations are focused on upcoming fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, with anticipated support for economic stabilization and recovery [3] - The outlook suggests a likely upward trend in the market, driven by structural opportunities, particularly in state-owned enterprise reforms and technology sectors [3] - The financial sector and high-value consumer goods are viewed as potential foundational investments for asset revaluation in China [3] Trade Data - In November, China's exports reached 2.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [6][7] - For the first 11 months of the year, total trade value was 41.21 trillion yuan, with exports at 24.46 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports at 16.75 trillion yuan (up 0.2%) [7] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 51.8% of China's total foreign trade, with a total value of 21.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6% [7]

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a trend of shrinking volume and fluctuations from December 1 to 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.86% [1] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market showed a structural characteristic of "index stabilization and recovery, shrinking trading volume, moderate leverage funding increase, and weakening southbound capital" [1] - The average stock price across the A-share market increased by 0.72% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector stood out this week, with stocks in this area experiencing significant upward movement and becoming a focal point for capital [1] - CICC noted that the global commercial aerospace sector is thriving, driving a continuous increase in rocket launch demand, suggesting investors pay close attention to developments in this field [1] IPO Highlights - The listing of Moore Threads, a leading domestic full-function GPU company, attracted significant market attention, with its share price soaring over 425% on the first day of trading, setting multiple historical records in the A-share market [2] - The closing price of Moore Threads was 600.5 yuan per share, resulting in a profit of approximately 243,100 yuan for investors who subscribed to one lot, marking the highest profit on the first day of an A-share IPO [2] Market Outlook - Guolian Minsheng anticipates that the spring market rally typically begins between late December and mid-January, with the median start point being 11 trading days before the holiday [2] - According to招商证券, the end of the year and the beginning of the new year will see an increase in incremental capital, making December a prime time for positioning [2] Policy and Economic Indicators - The market is approaching a policy window in December, with expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations to be implemented, and an expansion in the scale of special bonds anticipated [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 is expected to influence market liquidity, with a potential rate cut anticipated [3] - Key economic data releases in December include import and export figures, CPI and PPI data, and financial indicators such as new RMB loans and social financing scale [4][5][6][7]

Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced a broad increase this week, driven by easing expectations and improved risk appetite [1] - The A-share market showed a structural upward trend, with growth style leading significantly [1] - Major indices in the US, including the Nasdaq, rose collectively, with the Nasdaq index leading with a 0.91% increase [1] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.47%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong increased by 0.87% and 1.13%, respectively, indicating a strong inflow of capital into core assets [1] A-share Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited a mixed pattern of upward movement and structural differentiation, with all major indices closing higher [1] - As of December 5, the ChiNext Index led with a weekly increase of 1.86%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, Wind All A, and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.26%, 0.72%, and 0.37%, respectively [1] - Market sentiment saw a significant turnaround on Friday, with over 4,300 stocks rising and trading volume increasing to 1.74 trillion yuan, marking a recent high [1] - The non-bank financial and non-ferrous metal sectors showed strong performance, helping the Shanghai Composite Index return above 3,900 points [1] Sector Performance - The performance of industry sectors showed a stark contrast, with upstream resources and high-end manufacturing leading the gains [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector surged by 5.35%, while the communication, defense, and machinery equipment sectors also performed well [2] - The non-bank financial sector experienced a significant single-day increase of 3.5%, driven by regulatory changes that lowered investment risk factors for insurance funds [2] - Conversely, some consumer and technology application sectors faced pressure, with the media industry dropping by 3.86% and real estate and beauty care sectors also declining [2] Market Drivers - The logic driving this week's market evolution is clear: policy expectations provide core support, with anticipation for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference focused on "stabilizing growth" [2] - Industrial and event catalysts, such as the surge in global copper prices, reinforced the logic for resource stocks, while new regulations benefiting the financial sector were also significant [2] - Market sentiment improved significantly on Friday, with major funds reversing four consecutive days of net outflows to net inflows [2] Future Outlook - The market is entering an important policy observation period, with key focus on domestic and international policy signals [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 is expected to influence global liquidity expectations, while the Central Economic Work Conference will set the tone for next year's economic policies [3] - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and communication and military industries, which benefit from policies and prices, remain worthy of attention [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index may face technical pressure above 3,900 points, requiring sustained trading volume to solidify the breakout [3]

Group 1 - The medium to long-term outlook indicates that China's economy has significant growth potential, with macroeconomic stability expected by 2025, but structural differentiation will be evident, necessitating policy interventions to address weak domestic demand by 2026 [1] - Asset restructuring is crucial, with inflation expectations playing a vital role in wealth management for residents [2] - Global economic and monetary system restructuring is leading to changes in the pricing framework for assets such as gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the efforts of the provincial government to stabilize economic growth and implement the "14th Five-Year Plan" while addressing various local issues such as winter heating, rural revitalization, and fire safety in high-rise buildings [1][2] - The provincial government is actively engaging with local officials and business leaders to gather insights and suggestions for development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Specific measures are being emphasized, including enhancing economic monitoring, ensuring policy effectiveness, and improving the efficiency of government services [2] Group 2 - The provincial government is prioritizing the resolution of outstanding public grievances and the management of fire risks in high-rise buildings [2] - There is a strong emphasis on high-quality party building to lead industrial development, rural revitalization, and grassroots governance [2] - The government aims to create a solid foundation for the successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" through coordinated efforts in various sectors [2]

证券研究报告 2025年12月4日 行业：宏观 承前启后，"质"创未来 ——2026年度宏观展望 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 目录 SECTION 2 一、内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性 二、融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长 三、从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果 四、美联储10月如期降息 五、风险提示 摘要 ◆ 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 ◆ 居民收入、就业预期未改善，经济内生需求弱；稳增长政策低于预期等；中日地缘局势升级； 3 ◆ 内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性，融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长。固定资产投资增速三季度加速下滑 ，消费二、三季度走弱，外贸保持较强韧性，对经济维持正贡献。地产形势走弱，融资需求依旧不佳，单位活期化 意愿提升，通缩风险依然存在。 ◆ 从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果。中国经济当前存在的一些问题，十五五规划对问题以及解决方 案有相应的描述。居民消费率明显提高，我们认为中国居民消费占比未来5年提升15-20%，那么每年提升3-4%可完 成目标；关于就业的考核，我们认为需重视服务业对就业的重要性。 ◆ 美国通胀未达目标， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued a new set of policies, referred to as the "new 18 measures," aimed at consolidating and expanding the positive momentum of economic recovery, focusing on consumption, production, circulation, and boosting expectations [4][8]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The new policies emphasize systematic planning and coordination with central and previously issued policies to enhance overall policy effectiveness and create a synergistic effect [3][5]. - The new 18 measures include 18 specific initiatives that support consumption, reduce costs for enterprises, promote rapid growth of businesses, and facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading [4][6]. Group 2: Continuity and Adjustments - The new 18 measures retain several initiatives from previous policies, such as incentives for second-hand car sales and targeted procurement by large enterprises, while also introducing new adjustments [5][6]. - The fiscal incentives for newly established industrial projects have been increased, with the maximum subsidy raised from 1 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan for projects meeting specific criteria [6]. Group 3: Targeted Measures - The new policies introduce measures to help enterprises reduce costs, such as subsidies for issuing technology innovation bonds, with increased support for first-time issuers [7]. - There is a focus on cultivating new market entities in the consumption sector, with financial incentives for service-oriented e-commerce platforms that achieve significant growth [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, continuous manufacturing development, and high steel exports [1] Group 1: Production and Demand - In October, China's stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.6244 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.22% [1] - The overall profit of the steel industry is declining, but the total steel demand is anticipated to remain stable due to various supportive factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Industry Structure - The supply side is expected to tighten under the influence of policy expectations, leading to increased industry concentration [1] - The macro trend of high-quality economic development and new productive forces is expected to benefit high-end steel products, particularly those with high barriers and added value [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The steel industry is expected to see a stable and improving industrial pattern, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities [1] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, as well as leading steel enterprises benefiting from economies of scale, are likely to have valuation recovery opportunities in the future [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Under the ongoing supply-side "anti-involution," steel production capacity is concentrating on quality leading companies [1] - On the demand side, special steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation, while leading companies in the ordinary steel sector may benefit from improvements in the industry supply-demand structure in the medium to long term [1]