米兰强调美联储必须保持政治中立与专业聚焦。他表示："美联储必须被视为一个诚实的参与者，绝不 能卷入气候变化、种族政治等问题。"他还呼吁，"美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是 强调关税"，并补充道："美联储必须讨论所有政府政策，否则一概不谈。" 新华财经北京10月16日电美联储理事米兰16日直言当前货币政策"过于紧缩"，并呼吁在10月28日至29日 的FOMC会议上降息50个基点，以应对再度浮现的经济不确定性。 米兰强调："政策维持紧缩的时间越长，下行风险越大。"他指出，由于中性利率迅速上升，今年货币政 策实际上已收紧约1.5个百分点。尽管美国经济"相当不错"，但他警告，"25个基点的降息导致利率调整 速度慢于实际需求"，难以有效缓冲潜在冲击。 米兰主张货币政策应"以预测为导向，而非以数据为导向"。他坦言："有政府数据会好得多，利用替代 数据追踪通胀颇具挑战性。"这一立场与其对当前政策节奏的批评相呼应——他认为仅依赖滞后数据可 能导致反应迟缓。 米兰重申支持本月大幅降息的理由："如果货币政策维持目前的紧缩水平，而经济又遭受类似冲击，这 将显著放大该冲击的负面影响。"他提及"上周出现的风险"增加了降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial system is transitioning from a state of "liquidity abundance" to "liquidity tightness," indicating that a potential funding crisis may be closer than anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) was unexpectedly utilized on Wednesday morning, with a single-day operation scale reaching $6.75 billion, marking the highest level since the end of Q2 this year and the largest since the pandemic in a non-quarter-end environment [1][5]. - The total amount of bank reserves in the Federal Reserve system has fallen below $3 trillion, which is seen as a critical threshold between "ample reserves" and "tight reserves" [3][12]. - The SRF, originally established as an emergency liquidity backstop during the pandemic, allows banks to exchange Treasury or agency securities for cash, and its recent usage indicates a significant shift in market liquidity conditions [6][7]. Group 2: Market Indicators - The market is beginning to signal liquidity pressure, with the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the effective federal funds rate serving as an early warning indicator [5][19]. - The usage of the SRF and the decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance to $3.5 billion, the lowest in four years, suggest that the passive pool for U.S. Treasury financing is depleting, which could increase financing pressure on banks and the funding market [8][9][12]. - The recent spike in the SOFR minus the excess reserves rate to 4 basis points indicates heightened liquidity stress, marking the highest level in recent years outside of quarter-end periods [16][19]. Group 3: Future Implications - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the end of the balance sheet reduction may come sooner than expected, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and Barclays adjusting their forecasts for the end of this process [10][11]. - The current liquidity pressures may necessitate not only a pause in tightening but also a potential reintroduction of liquidity measures such as Quantitative Easing (QE) and repo tools [11][12]. - Observers are closely monitoring the next steps for SOFR; if the spread between overnight rates and the official policy rate continues to widen, it could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of funding shortages [19].

Core Insights - Federal Reserve may end balance sheet reduction in the coming months, but the role of the U.S. Treasury was not mentioned by Powell [1] - The U.S. Treasury is increasing the supply of Treasury bills, necessitating a higher general account balance [1] - The general account balance has been targeted at approximately $850 billion, with expectations to reach at least $900 billion by the next quarterly report on November 3 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will decrease bank reserves, which are currently around $3 trillion, nearing a "sufficient" level [1] - Barclays strategists indicate that the growth in the Treasury's general account balance consumes reserves, increasing pressure on the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction and eventually expand its balance sheet [1] - The report from October 14 suggests that the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet to address the growth in non-reserve liabilities [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is accelerating the weekly auction of Treasury bills, with a net supply of $146 billion this month, exceeding expectations by $80 billion [1] - The increase in Treasury bill supply requires the Treasury's general account balance to rise to keep pace with cash flow [1] - According to policy, the general account balance should cover total expenditures and maturing marketable debt over a week [1]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a highly anticipated speech, with market participants hoping for positive liquidity signals to boost market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The speech was closely monitored by the market, indicating a strong interest in Powell's insights on monetary policy [1] - Investors are looking for indications of potential changes in interest rates or other measures that could enhance liquidity [1]

Core Insights - Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, with an implicit acknowledgment of the role played by the U.S. Treasury [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Treasury Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury is continuously increasing the supply of Treasury bills, necessitating a higher general account balance [1] - Over the past year, the target balance for the Treasury's general account has been approximately $850 billion, which is expected to reach at least $900 billion in the next quarterly report on November 3 [1] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction will decrease the reserves in the U.S. banking system, which currently stands at about $3 trillion, nearing what is considered a "sufficient" level [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Barclays strategist Samuel Earl indicated that the growth in the Treasury's general account balance further depletes reserves, increasing pressure on the Fed to halt its balance sheet reduction [1] - Ultimately, this situation may necessitate an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [1]

2025年10月14日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在费城全国商业经济学协会年会上发表了9月降息以来的首次 公开讲话。 与以往不同的是，这次讲话发生在一个特殊时刻——美国联邦政府自10月1日起"停摆"，关键经济数据 停止发布，美联储陷入了"数据依赖"却"无数据可依"的尴尬境地。 在9月的会议上，美联储已经将利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%的目标区间。 根据鲍威尔的表态，自9月份会议以来，就业和通胀前景似乎没有太大变化。 这意味着10月底的美联储会议继续降息的可能性很大——芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，投资者认为美 联储在10月会议再次降息的概率高达97%。 鲍威尔特别强调，由于需要平衡就业与通胀目标之间的矛盾，美联储利率政策不存在无风险路径。 这句话值得细品——通胀仍在高位徘徊，降息太快可能让好不容易压下去的物价又反弹; 但就业市场已经显现疲态，降息太慢又可能让失业率继续攀升。美联储现在就像走钢丝，左右都是悬 崖。 缩表收尾在即?流动性管理成新焦点 除了降息，鲍威尔此次还释放了缩表接近尾声的信号。 他首次明确表示，美联储的资产负债表缩减"接近尾声"，强调继续快速收紧可能带来流动性风险。 但关键问题是:在没有完 ...

当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席美国商业经济学会第67届年会时表示，自9月议息会议以来，美国的就业与通胀前景并未出现明显变化，但最新 数据显示，经济增长依然保持在一个"高于预期的稳健水平"。 鲍威尔表示，美联储在9月会议上选择维持中性政策立场，是基于对风险平衡的重新评估。"在通胀与就业目标之间寻找平衡，本身就不存在无风险的选择。 我们会根据经济前景的变化动态调整政策，而不是按既定路线前行。" 关于市场关注的"缩表"进展，鲍威尔透露，美联储或已接近缩表终点。"我们计划在准备金规模略高于'充足'水平时停止缩表。现在看来，这个时点可能就在 未来几个月。"他说，目前，美联储正密切关注多项指标，以确保这一决策的时机恰当。 他提到，在美国政府因预算分歧而短暂"停摆"前，相关经济数据已经显示出一定的韧性。由于政府关门，9月非农就业等关键数据的发布被迫推迟，但现有 迹象仍表明——企业裁员和招聘活动都维持在低位，劳动力市场虽然热度下降，却依旧处于相对健康区间。 鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场的活力正在减弱，招聘难度下降，意味着就业可能面临一定的下行压力。"这种变化让我们在评估风险时更加谨慎，"他说。 在通胀方面，他认为，近期 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite some government data delays due to the shutdown, existing data shows little change in employment and inflation outlook since September [1] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy adjustments will be based on economic outlook and risk balance rather than a preset path, and hinted that balance sheet reduction may end in the coming months [1] - Powell's remarks pave the way for another rate cut this month, as he noted the labor market is showing signs of fatigue while inflation remains resilient [1] Group 2 - U.S. major indices showed mixed performance due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions impacting market sentiment, particularly in the tech sector [3] - The VIX index rose, reflecting increased investor anxiety over trade risks [4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.2% to 6,689 points, while the Nasdaq 100 index saw a larger decline of 0.55% to 24,771.5 points, dragged down by large tech stocks [5] Group 3 - WTI crude oil prices experienced a slight decline due to concerns over supply surplus and renewed trade worries [9] - Gold futures continued to rise, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of rate cuts [9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with volatility being a primary concern for investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex policy environment, balancing inflation control and employment support, with indications that the current tightening cycle may be nearing its end and a shift towards "measured easing" is possible [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - Current data suggests that employment and inflation trends remain stable, with economic growth slightly stronger than expected, despite signs of labor market weakness such as hiring slowdowns and reduced job vacancies [5][26]. - The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, slightly above the beginning of the year, primarily driven by tariff-induced price increases, while housing service inflation is declining [3][25]. Monetary Policy Strategy - Powell indicated that the Fed may soon halt balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management to avoid market volatility similar to the 2019 repo market disruptions [4][7][21]. - The Fed's dual strategy involves cautious interest rate cuts and balance sheet adjustments to alleviate liquidity pressures without overly relying on rate reductions [4][9]. Market Reactions - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's signals regarding potential rate cuts and balance sheet normalization, with expectations of one to two rate cuts this year, though internal opinions within the Fed vary [7][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the balance of policies rather than betting on a single approach, as the Fed's strategy aims to respond to economic realities and manage market expectations [9][10]. Financial Stability - Powell highlighted the critical role of the reserve system, warning that failure to maintain interest payments on reserves could undermine the Fed's control over rates and financial stability [8][24]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, with a focus on maintaining a stable financial environment [13][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, with expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% [4] - The International Energy Agency has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth this year [4] Economic Data - In September, automobile sales in China reached 3.226 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [4] - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2144.00, up 10.74% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22521.70, down 0.76%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46270.46, up 0.44% [5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6644.31, down 0.16% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25441.35, down 1.73% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62% [5]