随着美元指数连续走弱，包括人民币在内的非美货币持续走强。 11月27日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至7.0738，较前一交易日高点进一步走强，连续三个交易 日创下去年10月中旬以来的新高。 更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率在前一交易日创下一年多新高后11月27日进一步走 强，盘中最高升至7.06527。 在创下新高后，午后，人民币对美元汇率在在岸和离岸市场双双小幅走弱，跌破7.08。 兴业研究指出，人民币兑美元短线升破7.10，11月27日盘中最低触达7.0738，向中间价靠拢，昨日中间 价受股市反弹提振，开在7.08以下。短线关注股汇联动的持续性，突破7.10后下一关键支撑为7.05。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青11月27日表示，人民币走势偏强，会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海 外资金流入国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。综合各类影响因素，预计短期内人民币还会处 于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和 节奏。其中，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美 元指数上行空间有限；不过，年初以来美元跌 ...

基本面： 周四（11月27日）亚盘时段，现货黄金表现清淡进一步收窄波动区间，目前暂交投于4153美元附近。周三，现货黄金价格强势攀升，刷新逾一周高位，收报 每盎司4163.78美元，涨幅达0.8%，盘中一度触及4173.31美元的峰值。这一波上涨行情的背后，主要得益于市场对美联储12月降息预期的急剧升温，使得无 收益的黄金在低利率环境中脱颖而出。结合近期美国经济数据、美元走势、债市和股市的表现，以及美联储褐皮书的最新洞察，黄金市场的乐观前景正在逐 步展开。 美国近期公布的经济数据呈现出复杂的图景，一方面显示出劳动力市场的韧性，另一方面也暴露了潜在的疲软，这进一步强化了黄金作为避险工具的吸引 力。截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人，创下4月以来最低水平，超出经济学家预期的22.5万人。这表明裁员活动仍处于较低 水平，企业支出也表现出色——9月份不包括飞机在内的非国防资本财订单增加0.9%，8月数据上修至同样水平。这些强劲指标本应提振美元和股市，但却 未能逆转降息预期，因为投资者更关注持续的经济不确定性。 另一份报告显示，续请失业金人数仍在上升，消费者对劳动力市场的信心正在下滑 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer for Global Commodities and Forex, Dominic Schnider, anticipates an acceleration in global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] Group 1: Commodity Outlook - Investors are diversifying their portfolios, showing optimism for commodity performance, especially beyond gold [1] - UBS expects gold prices to be around $4,500 next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by the fourth quarter [1] - Energy and grain prices are highlighted as particularly cheap, suggesting investment opportunities in these sectors [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Schnider believes there is a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an expected reduction of 50 basis points in the first half of next year [1] - The anticipated policy rate for next year is projected to be around 3.33%, with a possibility of dropping to 3% [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The dollar is expected to have a modest decline in the low to mid-single digits next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels [1] - A stabilization of the dollar is anticipated in the second half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with both onshore and offshore RMB breaking the 7.08 mark, reaching new highs since October 2022 [1][2] - On November 26, the onshore RMB reached a peak of 7.0767, while the offshore RMB peaked at 7.0753, reflecting a daily increase of 0.17% and 0.34% respectively on November 25 [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) stable exchange rate policies, increased demand for currency settlement as year-end approaches, and a favorable external environment for Chinese exports [1][2] Group 2 - The PBOC's recent report outlines a strategy to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will remain strong due to PBOC policies, while long-term expectations indicate a gradual appreciation of the RMB, supported by a friendly external environment and domestic economic fundamentals [2] - Analysts emphasize that the RMB is likely to maintain a stable trajectory against the USD, with limited potential for rapid appreciation before year-end [2]

Group 1 - UBS Asset Management indicates that Chinese stock valuations remain attractive, with MSCI China at approximately 13.2 times forward P/E, slightly above the past decade's average, but still below historical highs, suggesting no overheating in the market [1] - Global investors, including long-term funds and hedge funds, are actively participating in Chinese stocks, primarily through ETFs rather than actively managed funds, indicating a "technical repair" phase in the market [1] - UBS expects continued optimism for Asian assets over the next 6-12 months, with MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at about 15 times forward P/E, significantly lower than MSCI Global's 20.5 times, indicating substantial room for capital inflow [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey predicts the S&P 500 index to rise to 7490 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 12% from current levels, driven by a healthy U.S. economy and strong tech performance [2] - The survey indicates a potential for a market pullback in the next three months, with inflation concerns and uncertainty around interest rate cuts posing risks to the optimistic outlook [2] - The Dow Jones is forecasted to end next year at 50,566 points, reflecting an increase of over 7% from its current level [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs suggests that if a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, it could lower their Brent crude oil price forecast by about $5 per barrel, with a current forecast of $56 per barrel for next year [3] Group 4 - Analysts from ING report an increase in implied volatility for the euro against the pound ahead of the UK budget announcement, indicating market concerns despite a recovery in long-term UK government bonds [4] Group 5 - ING analysts state that the German economy is expected to remain stagnant until fiscal stimulus measures take effect, with the latest GDP estimates confirming stagnation due to weak private consumption and net exports [5] - However, they anticipate improvement post-current quarter as the German parliament is expected to approve the 2026 budget, which should support economic activity [5] Group 6 - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts limited upside for the U.S. dollar, with the RMB expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in Q4 [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes a new upward cycle for lithium batteries is starting, driven by energy storage demand and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [7] - Guohai Securities projects a slow bull market for A-shares, with technology remaining a key focus, supported by liquidity from household savings [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of crude oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing price movements and potential future trends in the market. Group 1: Current Price Trends - Crude oil futures are currently trading at low prices, with a recent low of $56 per barrel recorded on October 20th [2] - The 50-day moving average (50-DMA) has been acting as a resistance level since the recent low [3] Group 2: Factors Weighing on Oil Prices - Several factors are contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices, including a stronger dollar, firm interest rates, slower US factory activity at a four-month low due to tariffs, and discussions of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could allow for increased Russian oil exports [4] Group 3: Potential Catalysts for Price Increase - Possible catalysts that could lead to higher oil prices include a break of the US dollar below 99, a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, failure of peace agreements, emergence of other geopolitical stresses, and unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests looking for a close above $59 per barrel as a signal for potential price increases, with a phased approach to adding positions based on moving averages [8] - The strategy includes monitoring futures charts as a guide for trading the USO ETF and adjusting risk levels according to the Average True Range (ATR) strategy as prices rise [8] Group 5: Broader Market Context - There is an increasing focus on commodities, with potential spillover effects into other hard assets like silver and gold, indicating a broader investment strategy for 2026 [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **technology sector**, with a specific focus on **AI** and its implications for the **U.S. economy** and **global asset allocation**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Technology Capital Expenditure as a Key Variable** Technology capital expenditure is identified as a crucial factor influencing the global economic cycle and asset allocation in 2026, affecting major assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. equities [2][4][12] 2. **Impact of AI on U.S. GDP Growth** The technology sector, particularly AI, contributes significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for at least 0.5 percentage points of GDP increase. This contribution is more pronounced due to the U.S.'s leading position in technology capital expenditure compared to other countries like China [8][12] 3. **Current Monetary Policy Environment** The U.S. is currently in a loose monetary policy cycle, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain this stance to address complex economic issues, reducing concerns about an AI bubble burst [5][6][7] 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be influenced by political factors, leading to continued loose policies even in the face of improving employment data and rising inflation pressures [6][7] 5. **Global Capital Flows and the Dollar** AI development is expected to attract global capital into the U.S., supporting a strong dollar. In 2024, the U.S. technology sector is projected to outperform, maintaining a high dollar index despite potential trade war impacts [9][10] 6. **Debt Management through Technology Investment** The resolution of U.S. government debt issues relies heavily on technology capital expenditure and Federal Reserve policies. Sustained technology investment can attract foreign capital, aiding in debt management [14] 7. **Concerns about AI Bubble** Market concerns regarding an AI bubble are primarily focused on financing and over-investment issues. However, the current liquidity environment is relatively loose, mitigating these concerns [5][15] 8. **Future of the Dollar and Gold Prices** The strength of the dollar is influenced by economic cycles, demand changes, and liquidity conditions. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term strength of the dollar is tied to the performance of the technology sector [16] 9. **Investment Opportunities in December** December presents potential investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially if market concerns about financing and investment arise, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **AI's Political Dimension** The current AI revolution is characterized by its strong political attributes, with the U.S. facing intense competition from China, leading to unprecedented governmental focus on technology development [11][12] 2. **Long-term Economic Strategy** The U.S. government is expected to increase investments in AI and emerging technologies to maintain its competitive edge, which will significantly impact global capital markets and international political economy [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the US dollar is influenced by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, with recent comments from officials indicating a divide in decision-making [1] Economic Data - Recent US economic data, including the delayed September non-farm payroll report, did not provide clear signals for the interest rate path, showing a higher-than-expected increase in employment but an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [1] - The complete employment data for October will not be available due to a recent government shutdown, adding to the uncertainty [1] Market Indicators - The DXY dollar index remained flat at 100.192, reflecting the current stability of the dollar amidst the mixed economic signals [1]

来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, despite some support from geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns related to the US government shutdown [1][3] - The latest non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the expected 3.7% [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, but overall labor market data remains robust, leading to a decreased probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, currently estimated at about 35% [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently hovering around $4,020, which is close to a one-month upward trendline support area and coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average, forming a significant support zone [3] - If gold prices break below this support area, they may further decline to below the psychological level of $4,000, potentially approaching $3,931 or the October low of $3,886 [3] - On the upside, if prices steadily break above $4,100 and gain confirmation, they may test the $4,152-$4,155 range and could approach the $4,200 round number [3]