贵金属日报 2025-05-07 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 1.60 %，报 809.28 元/克，沪银涨 0.45 %，报 8275.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.99 %， 报 3389.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.24 %，报 33.30 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 99.49 ； 市场展望： 受中美贸易谈判消息影响，市场关于全球贸易及关税风险的预期有所缓和，这对于国际金价形 成短线利空因素。截至北京时间早盘 7 点，现货黄金早盘累跌 50 美元，下破 3380 美元/盎司。 昨日期货盘面以及国内黄金 ETF 的持仓表现有所分化，受到节后多头持仓回补的影响，沪金总 持仓量在节后开盘至昨日夜盘结束期间出现增加，由 41.4 万手上升至 45.1 万手，沪金主力合 约区间上涨幅度达到 3.18%。但国内黄金 ETF 的申赎净持仓量在节后表现偏弱，WIND 统计口径 下国内主要 14 个黄金 E ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: May 6 - 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Recently, the marginal improvement of macro - economic data has weakened the safe - haven demand, short - term easing of trade frictions, and technical adjustments have led to a high - level decline in gold prices. However, the long - term support logic remains unchanged, with the US fiscal deficit and global central bank gold purchases providing fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the May non - farm payroll data and the change in the Fed's balance - sheet reduction rhythm. If geopolitical risks resurface or inflation rebounds, precious metals may regain upward momentum [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy: Gold still has short - term callback pressure. Wait for the right time to configure and buy call options. The lower support for the main gold contract 2506 is 758 - 765, and the upper pressure is 829 - 836 [11]. 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, and it may be near the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Silver has "dual attributes". When macro - uncertainty increases, although its safe - haven attribute can bring certain positive factors, its industrial attribute makes it also dragged down by the weakening economic growth expectations. Currently, the slowdown of global manufacturing growth and the weakening demand expectations in industries such as electronics and photovoltaics further suppress the fundamentals of silver. In the long - term, the continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plan and the growth of industrial demand, and the enhanced safe - haven attribute of silver due to geopolitical risks support the silver price under the resonance of multiple factors [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: Shanghai Silver will continue to consolidate sideways. The expected operating range of the main Shanghai Silver contract 2506 is 6900 - 8800, and it is recommended to adopt a grid trading strategy [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see. It was expected that the main silver contract 2506 would fluctuate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended within the range of 6900 - 8800 [35]. - This Week's Strategy: Not clearly stated in the provided content other than the last - week's related information 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][46][48]

【环球时报特约记者 甄翔】从比尔·盖茨到蒂姆·库克，再到摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，连日来， 美国的科技巨头、华尔街精英纷纷对巴菲特决定今年年底前卸任以及对关税冲突的批评做出回应。当地 时间3日，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州举行。该年会是分析经济形 势、盘点市场走势的重要年度经济活动。此次年会正值全球经济受关税政策影响增长乏力之际，因而尤 为受到关注。现年94岁的巴菲特在年会收官讲话中正式宣布他将于年底卸任公司首席执行官，届时他的 副手阿贝尔将成为公司新的掌舵人。同时，他罕见地对当前的关税冲突提出批评，并对美国政府的赤字 和美元地位表示担忧。 巴菲特年底卸任的消息引发多方关注。巴菲特于1965年收购了当时还是一家纺织厂的伯克希尔·哈撒 韦，并在几十年间将公司打造为一个横跨多个产业、总资产高达万亿美元的巨头。在巴菲特掌舵下，伯 克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的年化收益率基本是标普500指数的两倍，而其本人也由此被称为"股神"。 巴菲特在年会上发声，明确表示"贸易不应该成为武器"，针对全世界征收惩罚性关税是"重大错误"。美 国全国公共广播电台（NPR）3日报道称，巴菲特是否会就贸易冲突及其 ...

"这是我的第60次年度大会，是规模最大的一次，也将是最好的一次。"巴菲特说。 当地时间5月3日，被称作"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州奥马 哈举行。当天，巴菲特宣布计划在年底退休，这或许也将是他作为公司CEO出席的最后一次年度股东大 会。 在长达四个半小时的问答中，巴菲特就关税战、美国财政赤字、美元贬值及人工智能等问题分享见解， 并推荐了自己的"接班人"。 "贸易不应该成为武器" 首个问题直指关税。巴菲特此前曾形容，美政府的关税政策"是一种战争行为"。 美国商务部最新数据显示，美国一季度GDP自2022年以来首次出现萎缩。当天，巴菲特对美国政府的财 政状况提出警告。 "我在年度报告中就简要提到过，美国的财政政策让我害怕。"巴菲特说。 他认为，美国的财政状况不可持续，"我们不知道这意味着两年还是二十年，因为从没有一个国家像美 国这样，但这种情况不可能永远持续下去。" 当天，巴菲特指出，各国之间的贸易平衡是更好的选择，但美政府大范围征收关税的做法并非正确之 举。 "我们应该与世界其它国家开展贸易，做我们最擅长的事，而他们做他们最擅长的事。"巴菲特认为，世 界其它地区越繁荣，就会变 ...

1．谈现金储备：现金储备目前已超过 3470 亿美元；一直在寻找投资机会，并希望减少手头现金，可能 降至500亿美元；重大交易"极不可能"明天就发生，但在五年内则并非如此。 2．谈继任计划：将于年底辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，将建议此前官宣的接班人、公司 副董事长格雷格•阿贝尔年底出任CEO。 3．谈市场波动：与 1929 年股市崩盘等时期相比，当前股市算不上是大幅波动。 4．谈贸易：美国应该寻求与世界其他国家开展贸易，贸易不应成为武器。 5．谈美国财政赤字：如何控制政府的收入和支出这个问题从来没有真正得到解决，而且这个问题已经 损害了许多文明；美国的财政赤字是不可持续的，可能会变得无法控制，然后就只能放弃（控制它的希 望）；对美国的财政问题感到害怕，但这也不是美国独有的问题。 6．谈房产投资：房地产投资比股票投资更耗时，吸引力更小。 钛媒体App 5月4日消息，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司年度股东大会在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行，19700人参 加，创纪录新高。以下为要点速览： 7．谈马斯克收购Twitter：马斯克三年前开始推动Twitter（现称X）的收购交易，完成这样一笔涉及数百 亿美元的交易，需要各方共 ...

Group 1: Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett announced his plan to retire by the end of the year, shocking shareholders at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting [1] - Buffett will recommend Greg Abel, the vice chairman of non-insurance operations, to succeed him as CEO, stating that the timing is right for Abel to take on the role [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Views - Buffett criticized the use of trade as a weapon, particularly through tariffs, stating that it disrupts global markets and is a significant mistake [2] - He emphasized the importance of international trade and collaboration, advocating for a balanced approach rather than broad tariffs [2] Group 3: Market Volatility - Buffett noted that Berkshire Hathaway's stock has experienced three instances of over 50% declines since his acquisition, asserting that the recent market downturn is minor compared to historical crashes [3] Group 4: Fiscal Responsibility - Buffett expressed concerns over the unsustainable nature of the U.S. fiscal deficit, indicating that it could become uncontrollable if not addressed [4] - He remarked that Congress seems uncommitted to reducing the fiscal deficit, highlighting a lack of effective solutions to manage government revenue and spending [4] Group 5: Investment Philosophy for Young Investors - Buffett advised young investors to associate with more capable individuals to shape their investment philosophies positively [5] - He revealed that Berkshire Hathaway nearly finalized a $10 billion deal recently, emphasizing the ease of decision-making when encountering valuable investment opportunities [5]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is both expected by the market and evident in reality, which is a bullish factor for gold prices [2]. - The weakening US economic data shows the impact of tariff policies on the overall US economy [2]. - The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, July, September, and December FOMC meetings [2]. - Maintain the idea of buying gold on dips after the price stabilizes, but there is still room for the short - term price to weaken. The start of the silver market needs further dovish statements from the Fed [3]. - The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 1.57% to 793.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.48% to 8244.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.01% to 3348.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.09% to 33.35 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 99.05 [2]. - Various precious metal - related data such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different degrees of changes [4]. Market Outlook - The US Treasury increased the borrowing scale forecast for the second quarter to 514 billion dollars, higher than the February estimate of 391 billion dollars, mainly due to a low cash balance and reduced expected cash inflows [2]. - The US economic data released yesterday weakened, with the April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index at - 35.8, significantly lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [2]. Historical Relationship and Strategy - International gold prices are positively correlated with the US fiscal deficit level, and silver prices rise strongly when the Fed's easing expectations are concentratedly released [3]. - Given the short - term unchangeable expansion of the US fiscal deficit and monetary policy easing, maintain the strategy of buying gold on dips after price stabilization, and wait for the Fed's further easing statements for the silver market [3].