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金钟:一旦特朗普掌握了这个“撒手锏”,影响将远超议息会议决策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 00:31
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% on September 17, marking the first rate cut during Trump's second presidential term [1][3] - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, advocating for a 0.5% reduction before the recent meeting [3][6] - The Federal Reserve's members anticipate two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, each by 0.25% [3][6] Group 2 - Trump is focused on gaining control over the Federal Reserve Board, currently holding three out of twelve voting seats, aiming to secure a majority [6][7] - If Trump successfully removes Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, he could appoint another member, further consolidating his influence [6][7] - Control over the Federal Reserve Board would allow Trump to influence the selection of the twelve regional bank presidents, potentially reshaping monetary policy [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic landscape shows a stark divide, with the top 10% of income earners benefiting from rising asset values, while the bottom 90% face inflationary pressures [8][9] - The reduction in illegal immigrant labor due to Trump's policies is contributing to rising prices in essential goods and services [9][11] - Upcoming healthcare policy changes and rising insurance costs are expected to further drive inflation [11][12] Group 4 - The anticipated monetary easing could exacerbate wealth inequality in the U.S., with potential political repercussions as the 2026 midterm elections approach [12][13] - Trump's strategies may include redirecting internal conflicts outward, potentially leading to increased political tensions and international crises [12][13]
期价创上市以来新高 沪银因何“热辣滚烫”?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 00:25
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to expectations of overseas monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and a recovery in industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are a primary factor, with expectations of future rate cuts supporting precious metal prices [2][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting silver prices [1][2]. - The recent dovish comments from new Federal Reserve Governor Milan, advocating for significant rate cuts, have positively influenced market expectations and contributed to the rebound in silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - The silver market is experiencing a favorable fundamental situation, particularly due to a recovery in the photovoltaic industry, which has seen a significant increase in demand for silver [2]. - Investment demand for silver has risen sharply, as evidenced by the increase in holdings of major silver ETFs from 25,999 tons at the beginning of the year to 27,681 tons by mid-September, an increase of 1,682 tons [3]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach 3,659 tons by 2025, indicating a continued supply shortage that will drive strong international silver prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is at 85.63, significantly above the historical average of 62.09, suggesting potential for further correction and upward movement in silver prices [3]. - Key factors to monitor include potential adjustments to China's LPR loan rates, future indications from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, developments in geopolitical situations, and economic data from major countries [3].
金条降价,黄金跌价,25年9月21日,各大银行黄金金条最新价格
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 23:23
贵金属市场风起云涌,黄金白银价格稳步上扬 9月21日,全球贵金属市场迎来一轮强势表现。COMEX黄金期货价格以1.12%的涨幅收官,报每盎司3719.4美元,周线累计上涨0.9%。与此同时,COMEX 白银期货亦不甘示弱,飙升2.96%,收于每盎司43.365美元,周度涨幅达到1.25%。 当前,国际金价稳稳站上每盎司3600美元的高位。尽管市场普遍预期美联储将启动新一轮宽松货币政策,但分析人士认为,金价的进一步大幅攀升空间可能 受限。 当日,国内多家知名黄金品牌纷纷更新了其零售价格。 潮宏基与周大福、老凤祥、老庙黄金、谢瑞麟、周大生等品牌同步,金价均定格在每克1078元。 周生生则以每克1088元的价格位居前列。 菜百首饰的黄金价格为每克1048元。 周六福公布的金价为每克1044元。 中国黄金的售价为每克999元。 金大福的金价报每克1073元。 水贝黄金的当日价格为每克835元,而投资金条的价格为每克848元。 值得注意的是,以上仅为市场上的部分品牌,如萃华、亚一、梦金园、赛菲尔等品牌也在金市中占据一席之地,其价格亦可能随市场行情而变化。 二、 贵金属回收市场价格指南 对于有意出售贵金属的投资者,当日的 ...
黄金走势推演与后市机会分析(2025.9.21)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 07:59
Core Viewpoint - The recent movements in the gold market indicate a strong upward trend, with a notable five consecutive weeks of gains, despite some fluctuations during the week [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's current policy under Chairman Powell focuses on "risk management," with recent interest rate cuts exhibiting a "hawkish" characteristic, putting pressure on the gold market [2]. - There are concerns about potential "forced rate hikes" in 2026 if current rate cuts do not align with economic trends, reflecting market uncertainty regarding long-term policy paths [2]. - Upcoming speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials are expected to reveal a divided stance on monetary policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others oppose them [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data - Market attention is shifting back to inflation data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.32% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for August [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold market is in a clear upward trend, having transitioned from a corrective phase to a primary upward cycle, with the key turning point at 3120 [8]. - The five-wave upward structure initiated from 3120 has been identified, with the current phase being the core upward wave (5-wave 3), characterized by significant price increases and strong continuation [9]. - The internal structure of the current upward wave (5-wave 3) is being closely monitored, with recent movements indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend if key support levels are maintained [10][15].
美国通胀数据公布,整个社会要崩盘,特朗普成最大赢家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 03:56
消费者面临涨价压力 批发价格的变化迟早会传导到零售端,影响普通消费者的日常生活。近期美国民众已经明显感受到物价上涨的速度在提升,越来越多的企业开始将关税成本 转嫁给消费者,导致各类商品价格普遍上扬。要知道,PPI数据往往是未来消费价格的先行指标,其变化最终都会体现在老百姓的日常开支上。经济学家汤 姆斯指出几个可能缓解通胀压力的因素:虽然关税推高了商品价格,但大宗商品价格相对稳定,海运运费已回落至疫情后的低点,而且美元汇率自6月以来 保持强势。这些因素或许能在未来几个月起到一定的缓冲作用。但通胀走势最终还是要看消费者价格指数的实际表现。即将公布的CPI数据备受关注,市场 普遍预测8月CPI环比将上涨0.3%,高于7月的0.2%;同比涨幅可能达到2.9%,创下今年1月以来的新高。这意味着美国的通胀压力依然存在,美联储未来的 货币政策走向充满变数——是继续降息刺激经济,还是暂停降息甚至加息以抑制通胀,目前仍无定论。 最新经济数据引发市场波动 2025年9月17日公布的美国批发通胀数据让市场稍稍松了口气。数据显示,8月生产者价格指数(PPI)意外下降0.1%,同比增幅也从7月修正后的3.1%降至 2.6%。这一结果让 ...
投资者应该持有多少黄金?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 02:36
加百利基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼表示,投资者可以考虑在投资组合中持有5%至10%的黄金。他补充说,黄金仍然是一种有吸引力的投资, 多面手投资者群体一定程度上还是忽视了这种贵金属。 曼奇尼预计投资者对黄金的兴趣将升温,因投资者希望保护其投资组合的购买力。近期人们对美元的信任仍在减弱,这使得黄金作为一种替代品 更具吸引力。 催化剂基金的首席投资官大卫·米勒建议投资者在其投资组合中持有约15%的黄金。理由是全球央行强劲的黄金需求继续支撑着市场,由于投资者 对美元明显缺乏信心,因此正越来越多地将黄金作为避险资产。在持续通胀和地缘政治不确定性的背景下,美元一直在走弱。国际黄金价格的上 涨速度大大超过了通货膨胀,这反映了人们对美元的信任向黄金等硬通货的转变。 来源:中国黄金网 一些海外分析师认为,国际金价获利回吐是由于投资者重新审视美联储货币政策的转变。尽管预计利率将下调,但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔给大 幅降息的预期泼了一盆冷水,他将联邦公开市场委员会的决定描述为"由忧虑而非信心驱动的风险管理削减"。 美联储降息25个基点是一个明确的信号,疲软的劳动力市场和顽固的通货膨胀促使政策制定者采取行动,但要循序渐进。这一次的 ...
历史性突破,黄金站上3730美元盎司,全球资产大洗牌开始
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 18:51
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold has transformed from a silent safe-haven asset into a highly sought-after investment, with prices soaring to a record high of $3,730 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, central bank actions, and unprecedented pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, particularly warnings about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has significantly increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation remains a crucial driver for gold prices, as global monetary expansion and rising prices make gold an effective hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. economy in 2025 shows a dichotomy with a shrinking manufacturing sector and a robust service sector, raising concerns about stagflation [4]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have been aggressively purchasing gold, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, marking the second-highest level in history. The top buyers in early 2025 were China, Poland, and Turkey, collectively accounting for over 50% of purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted significantly under pressure from Trump, with expectations of interest rate cuts following weak economic data. The market anticipates a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 [5][6]. European Economic Risks - The Eurozone faces significant economic challenges, including slow growth and high debt levels, which further support gold prices. The EU's GDP growth is projected at only 1.1% for 2025, with debt-to-GDP ratios increasing [7]. Broader Market Implications - The rise in gold prices is expected to positively impact other resource assets, with historical trends indicating that a gold bull market often correlates with increased activity in the broader commodities sector. Silver has also seen significant price increases, driven by both investment and industrial demand [7]. Investment Outlook - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3,700 for the end of 2025. However, the rapid price increase raises concerns about potential corrections [9]. Tax Implications - Starting January 2026, gold transactions will incur a 6% value-added tax and a 5% consumption tax, which will directly affect investment returns. For example, a $100,000 investment could incur an additional $11,000 in taxes [11].
机构:美国增长与通胀拉锯战持续,政策落地节奏被误判
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 07:22
Core Viewpoint - The tug-of-war between growth and inflation in the U.S. remains unresolved, with significant uncertainties surrounding the impact of global tariff policies and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in offsetting the burdens of import taxes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The influence of global tariff policies has not yet fully manifested, creating uncertainty in economic forecasts [1] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in counteracting the negative effects of import taxes is still a major unknown [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite significant disappointments in the foreign exchange and interest rate markets, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains clear [1] - The foreign exchange and interest rate markets have misjudged the process and timing of policy implementation [1]
美联储降息周期重启,投资者应持有多少黄金?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-19 04:30
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,600 per ounce, but new upward momentum is lacking despite the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Gold - Analysts attribute profit-taking in the gold market to investors reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with a cautious approach to rate cuts indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - Powell's description of the Fed's decision as "risk management" suggests a gradual approach rather than a significant policy shift, which supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold [1] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Recommendations - Société Générale analysts have increased gold holdings in their multi-asset strategy, projecting gold prices to hover around $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [2] - Chris Mancini from Gabelli Funds recommends a 5% to 10% allocation to gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its attractiveness due to investor indifference [2][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Mancini notes that gold remains an attractive investment as ordinary investors largely overlook it, with significant interest expected to return as investors seek to protect purchasing power [3] - David Miller from Catalyst Fund suggests a 15% allocation to gold, citing erosion of trust in the dollar and strong central bank demand as supporting factors for the market [4] Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Miller emphasizes that the transition of trust from fiat currencies to hard assets like gold is driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, predicting continued price increases for gold [5] - The significant U.S. government debt and deficit are expected to further undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, reinforcing gold's appeal [5] - Jerry Prior from KraneShares indicates a current allocation of 8% to 9% in gold, which has risen to about 12% due to price increases, suggesting that a minimum of 3% allocation is necessary for liquidity [6]
有色金属日报-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:16
有色金属日报 2025-9-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号:F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 伦铝收涨 0.58%至 2705 美元/吨,沪铝主力合约收至 20800 元/吨,美联储表态没有预期鸽派,多头 获利了结造成铝价下探,伦铝仓单集中度更高走势强于沪铝。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 5.4 至 53.5 万手,期货仓单持平,报 7.4 万吨。周四公布的铝锭社会库存为 63.8 万吨,较周一增 0.1 万 吨;铝棒社会库存 13.5 万吨,较周一减 0.1 万吨,铝棒加工费继续反弹,交投一般。华东电解铝现 货维持贴水期货,贴水缩窄 20 元/吨,下游采买情绪回暖。外盘 LME 铝库存 51.4 万吨,单日增加 3.0 万吨,增量来自亚洲库存,注销仓单比例下滑,Cash/3M 维持升水。 张世骄 从业资格号:F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@ ...