智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体走低，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)跌4.03%，报135.8港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌3.46%，报33.52港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌2.96%，报29.54港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)跌 2.54%，报138港元。 消息面上，现货黄金上周五遭遇大幅回调，自4211美元历史高位急速下挫近180美元，创下近期最大单 日跌幅。东吴证券指出，上周美联储鹰派理事博斯蒂克宣布将于明年一季度退休，市场认为届时鸽派实 力将占优，下半周随着更多理事的"鹰派"言论，降息预期大幅回撤，该行认为当下整体宏观框架仍属做 多窗口期，贵金属中期逻辑依旧通顺，看好回调后后市行情。 铜冠金源期货表示，目前美联储官员普遍发表鹰派言论，市场对之前对于12月降息的乐观预期在进行修 正。市场出现普遍出现获利了结现象，风险资产以及黄金、加密货币都同步下跌，呈现典型的"买预 期、卖事实"的表现。该行认为近期金银价格的反弹已结束，将再度进入调整。短期关注本周四即将公 布的最为重磅的非农数据。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

本周，美联储将公布10月货币政策会议纪要，多位美联储官员也将陆续发表讲话，投资者将在会议纪要 以及这些最新表态中寻找线索，推测美联储的货币政策路径。上周，多位美联储官员先后发言，打压了 降息预期。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，目前美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至不足50%。（总台 央视记者 渠莎莎） 编辑：王一帆 ...

短期之"冰"：回顾近期跌势的寒意 截至今日亚市收盘，国际现货黄金价格交投于每盎司1930美元附近，虽然较上周低点略有反弹，但相较 于一个月前超过2050美元的高点，跌幅依然超过5%。这一轮下跌，主要由以下几个因素合力造成： 2025年11月16日，综合讯—— 今日的全球黄金市场，正弥漫着一种复杂而微妙的气息。在过去几周经 历了一轮令人心悸的显著下挫后，金价在当前位置陷入了拉锯与震荡。然而，在表面的疲软之下，一股 看涨的暗流正在涌动。越来越多的市场分析指出，此前压制黄金表现的几大短期"枷锁"已然松动，市场 正站在一个短期波动加剧、但中长期前景趋于明朗的关键节点之上。 面对当前"短期波动"与"中长期积极"并存的局面，市场参与者应如何布局？ 短期来看， 金价的波动性仍将维持在高位。多空双方将在1950美元附近展开激烈争夺。任何关于美国 经济数据或美联储官员的讲话，都可能引起价格的剧烈摆动。对于短线交易者而言，这既是风险，也是 机会。 1、美元与美债收益率的"双刃剑"：过去一个月，美国公布的一系列经济数据，特别是通胀和就业数 据，显示出超预期的韧性。这迫使市场重新评估美联储的货币政策路径。此前市场普遍期待的快速、连 ...

受美联储降息预期大幅降温与获利回吐盘冲击，国际金价在上周经历剧烈震荡，在一度冲高至每安士 4200 美元以上后 显著回落，最终守住 4000 美元关键心理关口，凸显市场对货币政策走向的高度敏感。 据市场数据显示，12 月交割的黄金期货全周上涨 1.8%，收于每安士 4084.4 美元，但在 11 月 14 日单日跌幅达 2.6%， 回调态势明显。这一波动源于美国货币政策预期的骤变：芝加哥商品交易所（CME）FedWatch 工具显示，当前市场对 12 月美联储降息的预期概率已不足 50%，而一个月前这一数值尚超过 90%。 金价走势 AI生成 预期逆转的核心诱因是美国政府停摆的后遗症。尽管为期 43 天的停摆已结束，但经济数据收集工作受到严重干扰，缺 乏高质量数据支撑使得美联储被迫采取中性货币政策立场，市场普遍预计 12 月利率将维持不变。与此同时，美元走强 进一步压制了以美元计价的黄金吸引力，共同构成金价回调的双重压力。 市场对金价走势的分歧日益加剧。信息服务商金拓（Kitco）的调查显示，华尔街分析师尚未形成明确共识，多数人将 此次回调视为 "战术性买入机会"；而大众投资者则仍保持看涨态度。Adrian ...

白银方面，金丰来表示，价格在突破51美元大关后表现强势，目前在53.4美元附近交投。白银价格正逐 渐接近历史高点54.46美元，这一水平构成关键阻力位。短期技术面显示强势上升格局，移动平均线呈 上升排列，为价格提供支撑。然而，连续上涨之后，相对强弱指数（RSI）等动能指标可能已进入超买 区间，短期追高需谨慎，以防技术性回调。下方支撑位在50.55美元附近，一旦跌破，可能意味着当前 强势上涨节奏改变，甚至形成双顶形态。 对于加密货币市场，金丰来认为，供应动态正在经历结构性变化。比特币整体卖方流动性明显下降，而 交易所储备相对稳定。根据比特币卖方流动性库存数据显示，总流动性已降至约127万枚，为近年来最 低水平。这表明市场卖方供应持续减少，尤其来自巨鲸和机构钱包的供应。尽管短线波动加剧，机构投 资者仍保持乐观。随着监管制度与ETF基础设施的逐步完善，市场准入门槛大幅降低，采用度持续上 升，越来越多机构将比特币纳入多元化投资组合的视野中。 来源：市场资讯 11月14日，金丰来认为，黄金在周三重新展现强势，此前大部分时间仍处于盘整状态。随着美国国会即 将进行关键投票以结束历史性的政府停摆，市场情绪保持谨慎。美国众议院 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct light - position trading with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [4][5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.12% and an amplitude of 2.53%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 86,900 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's hawkish stance continues to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be a rate cut in December. Musalem believes that the policy is approaching neutrality and the easing space is limited [4] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The supply growth of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand is temporarily stable. Social inventory has decreased slightly [4] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 14, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 86,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 960 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,843 lots [10] - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 87,095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton [13] - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [13] - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 19,148 lots, an increase of 1,063 lots from last week [22] - **Option Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8142, a week - on - week increase of 0.0422 [27] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 77,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Import and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 3,453.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 235.74 yuan/ton [36] - **Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 498,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The import profit and loss amount was 31.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120.55 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 275 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 10,070 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,436 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 198,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [54] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 0.6% and 9.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of October 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong (★★) [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market is supported by factors such as repeated statements from Fed officials and weak micro - data, and long - term value allocation is recommended [1][2][3] - The copper market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and increasing green copper demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][5][6] - The zinc market is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - The aluminum market shows a relatively strong short - term trend due to overseas supply contraction, but attention should be paid to downstream demand changes [1][11][13] - The nickel market is relatively weak because of high inventory and weak downstream consumption, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][15][17] - The lithium carbonate market remains in a tight supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to take profit at high levels and wait for dips to go long [1][19][21] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US big data is blank, micro - data is weak, Fed officials' statements are repeated, silver has fallen from its high, but gold and silver are generally supported [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown has ended; some micro - data has turned weak, such as Verizon's large - scale layoffs and an increase in US foreclosure property numbers; Fed officials' statements are inconsistent; China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, and gold may be in a long - term bull market [2][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - allocation positions should be held [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level, facing pressure at the 88,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still bullish. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [86,000 - 89,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10,500 - 11,000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure and is in a volatile consolidation [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine output has declined recently, zinc concentrate supply has tightened in the short term, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Consumption has entered the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to accumulate [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc supply will increase and demand will decrease, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400 - 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,000 - 3,100] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have risen and then fallen, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply is expected to be tight due to production cuts, and domestic demand is turning from peak to off - season. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased, and domestic high - cost enterprises may cut production due to losses, but the market is still in an oversupply situation in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21,300 - 22,300] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have continued to fall, and stainless steel is in a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel inventory is at a high level, and domestic nickel inventory has also accumulated. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [117,500 - 120,000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 has fluctuated higher, hitting a recent high during the session, and the late - session gains have declined [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with inventory decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. Domestic production has reached a new high, and terminal market performance is strong. However, the resumption of production may put pressure on prices [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [86,000 - 88,000] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold market: Suggest buying at the lower support level for gold, and consider gradually reducing long positions for silver due to a potential short squeeze [2]. - Basic metals: For copper, maintain a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation; for electrolytic aluminum, be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view; for alumina, expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. - Industrial silicon: The supply contraction is expected to be greater than the demand contraction, and the price is expected to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Polysilicon: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Tin: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. - Black industry: For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting relevant contracts [5][6]. - Agricultural products: For soybeans, focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report; for corn, expect short - term price oscillations; for palm oil, focus on production and biodiesel policies; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for eggs and pigs, expect price oscillations [7][8]. - Energy and chemical industry: For LLDPE and PP, suggest short - term oscillations and long - term short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage; for PVC, suggest short positions; for PTA, take profit on long positions and short processing fees in the far - month; for rubber, expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations; for glass, suggest a wait - and - see approach; for MEG, short at high levels; for crude oil, short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day; for styrene, expect short - term oscillations; for soda ash, suggest a wait - and - see approach [9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices oscillated at high levels, with London gold closing at $4145 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump's chief economic advisor mentioned potential job losses due to the government shutdown; multiple Fed officials expressed different views on interest rates. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading strategy: Suggest buying gold at the lower support level and gradually reducing long positions for silver [2]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and there were spot discounts in East and South China [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation [3]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.78% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2906.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had stable production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened lower and oscillated widely, closing at 9145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The demand from polysilicon supported the market, while the organic silicon monomer industry planned to cut production by 30% [4]. - Trading strategy: Expect the price to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing at 54195 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and both industry and warehouse inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased [4]. - Trading strategy: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rose and then fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts increased [4]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production also decreased significantly. The futures discount narrowed, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The port inventory increased, and the number of ships at berth also increased. The iron ore supply - demand situation weakened marginally, and the valuation was neutral [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1214 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output increased, and the steel mill profits deteriorated. The third round of price increases for coking coal was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market performance: CBOT soybeans were slightly bullish in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean harvest was nearing completion, and the market expected the USDA to lower the US soybean yield. South American soybeans were in the sowing stage with an expected increase in production. The demand for crushing and exports improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report, and the domestic market is relatively bullish in the short term, with the medium - term trend depending on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The demand from deep - processing enterprises was strong, but the effective supply was insufficient in the short term. The new - crop corn was expected to increase in production, which would suppress the long - term price [7]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term price oscillations and suggest a wait - and - see approach [7]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia in October increased, and the export also increased. The near - term inventory continued to accumulate, while there was an expected seasonal production decline in the long term [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy and focus on future production and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5498 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the supply surplus expectation was increasing, and the raw sugar price reached a five - year low. In China, the market showed an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, but it would eventually follow the decline of raw sugar [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures prices fell overnight, and international crude oil prices oscillated narrowly [8]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's US cotton export data was released. The Brazilian cotton production was expected to increase. In China, the Xinjiang cotton purchase was almost completed, and the textile enterprise yarn inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures and spot prices both fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg production inventory decreased, and the demand weakened after Double Eleven [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while spot prices fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply was still abundant, but the demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6790 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was closed, and the downstream demand weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4585 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC ex - factory price decreased, and the supply increased. The demand from downstream factories recovered less than expected, and the social inventory was high [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest short positions due to weak supply and demand [10]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX was $821 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply of PX was high, and the overall import volume increased. The PTA supply pressure was large in the long term, and the polyester factory load was high [10]. - Trading strategy: Take profit on long positions for PX and short processing fees in the far - month for PTA [10]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated upward, closing at 15390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased slightly, and the tire factory utilization rates and inventories changed [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1055 yuan, an increase of 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass inventory suppressed the price, and the downstream demand was weak. The production profit varied by process [10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach as the supply - demand is weak and the downside space is limited [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6430 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [10]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. The downstream demand weakened [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [10][11]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 3981 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. The polyester factory load was high, but the downstream demand weakened [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels for the 01 contract [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The sc contract fell sharply and then rebounded slightly [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply risk of Russian oil increased, and the OPEC + planned to increase production moderately. The demand in Europe and the US was seasonally weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6480 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels. The short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was still weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations, with the upside space limited by the import window [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1240 yuan, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash supply was stable, and the upstream had a price - supporting attitude. The inventory was balanced, and the downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable [11][12]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach [12].