美国总统特朗普当地时间29日再次表示，还是有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并重申已有下一任美联储主席 人选，将在1月某个时候宣布。 当前，市场并未对美联储独立性受威胁进行交易，但投资者确实预计，美联储将迎来内部分歧更加显著、主席更 加弱势以及更容易发生激进变革的时期。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）的美国利率交易主管洛里齐奥（Michael Lorizio）称："如果新 任美联储主席在沟通方式上深思熟虑，不仅有助于他们将共识引向其观点，而且还能创造稳定，避免做出任何可 能损害美联储对经济的影响力的举动。" 仍威胁解雇鲍威尔 特朗普29日表示，他仍然在考虑就鲍威尔在美联储一项翻修工程中的"严重无能"，对后者提起诉讼。特朗普称， 鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且"我很想解雇他"。今年7月，鲍威尔险些被特朗普罢免，但美国市场立即作出负面反 应，市场人士抨击这可能威胁美联储的独立性，从而扰乱市场。这番警告令特朗普态度转变。但此次，特朗普表 示，"也许我仍然可能会（这么做）。" 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但他在美联储理事会的任期需要到2028年才正式到期。鲍威尔尚未就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The widening yield spread between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds indicates growing investor concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid potential leadership changes and political pressures from President Trump [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Investors are preparing for a more divided Federal Reserve with a potentially weaker chairperson, as internal disagreements are expected to become more pronounced [2][7]. - The market has not yet reacted significantly to threats against the Fed's independence, but there is an anticipation of more aggressive changes in monetary policy [2][10]. - The potential for Trump to appoint new members to the Federal Reserve Board could shift the balance of power within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), raising concerns about the Fed's ability to operate independently [8][9]. Group 2: Leadership Speculation - Trump has indicated he is still considering firing current Fed Chair Powell, citing "serious incompetence" in a recent Fed project, and has a preferred successor in mind, to be announced in January [4][5]. - Candidates for the next Fed chair include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Hassett being viewed as a frontrunner [5][6]. - Trump's inconsistent statements regarding his preferred candidates suggest uncertainty in the decision-making process, which could impact market perceptions of the Fed's future direction [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential leadership changes have led to an increase in the yield spread between short-term and long-term Treasuries, reflecting investor anxiety [10]. - The possibility of a more divided Fed could lead to increased volatility in the bond market, as differing opinions among FOMC members may create uncertainty in interest rate decisions [9]. - Despite political pressures, some investors expect the Fed may lower interest rates again in early 2024, which could support stock market performance [11].

恒银期货：俄乌和平推进尽管进展缓慢，但大方向逐步趋于缓和，叠加前期涨幅过大，短期多头获利了结需求带动盘面回调是前期可以预料到 的。大方向上，美国进一步降息的押注、地缘紧张局势、各国央行的强劲需求以及上市交易基金(ETF)持有量的增加等一系列因素，都对贵金 属价格起到助推作用。短时盘面波动加大，国内假期临近，提醒投资者注意风险，轻仓或空仓过节为宜。 全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少84.6吨，当前持仓量为16305.96吨。 12月29日，上期所库存白银期货下降至79.6万手，较上周下降约10万手，反映已有资金选择了结离场。 机构观点 12月30日，沪银期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报18133.00元/千克，大幅走低3.99%。 【消息面汇总】 根据基金文件，为满足今年以来激增的需求，截至上周五SLV已累计增持近6700万盎司白银。不过，有分析师指出，尽管这一数字看似庞大， 但在今年全球白银总需求中仅占一小部分。 天风期货：综合而言，在目前沪银高位水平下，市场博弈将加剧，波动或进一步放大，建议交易者谨慎追高注意风险管理，择机低吸为主。后 市需重点关注美联储货 ...

美东时间周一，"懂王"特朗普再次将矛头指向美联储，公开表示正考虑以"严重失职"为由，对现任美联储主席鲍威尔提起诉讼，使两人长期存在的矛盾进一 步激化。 此次争执的导火索还是美联储总部大楼翻修工程的预算超支。该项目最初预算为19亿美元，后因石棉处理、土壤污染等问题，成本已膨胀至25亿美元之巨。 特朗普指责鲍威尔对此管理不善，是"浮夸翻修"的责任人。 然而，预算争议终究是表面，有分析人士指出，双方的根本矛盾仍集中于美联储的货币政策。特朗普已多次公开抨击鲍威尔降息行动迟缓，甚至威胁将其解 雇。 目前正值美联储继任主席的遴选阶段，现任主席鲍威尔将在明年5月届满离职，而特朗普正在大张旗鼓地面试新主席。对于继任者，特朗普表示，预计将于 明年1月宣布新任美联储主席人选。 特朗普威胁起诉鲍威尔的言论，再次凸显了其试图影响货币政策的强烈意愿。在美联储领导层更迭之际，这场围绕利率与独立性的角力，不仅关系到美国经 济的走向，也持续考验着全球市场对美元体系及美国机构独立性的信心。随着提名日期的临近，这场风波如何收场，将成为影响2026年金融市场的关键变量 之一。 作者：飞鱼 市场人士指出，新主席很可能从美联储前理事凯文·沃什和国家经 ...

| 沪锡2602四 | | 323010 -5.65% | 339467 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氢化铝2605圆 | 2747 | -1.47% | 473908 | | 铝合金2603网 | 21475 | -0.49% | 6510 | | 国际铜2602网 | 87320 | -3.06% | 11459 | | 工业硅2605四 | 8875 | 0.62% | 116509 | | 文华商品 | 164.77 | -0.51 | -0.31% | | 行情 | UHD 资料库 | 发现 | 我 | 本报记者 王宁 12月30日，国内期货市场金属板块大面积低开，沪银、沪金出现较大程度跌幅，铂和钯期货主力合约盘中更是跌停；同 时，沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、沪铅和沪锡等金属品种，也出现不同程度的下探。 分析人士表示，近日金属板块波动较大，包括白银和黄金等品种更是出现单边行情，但目前利好基本面的因素缺乏实质性 支撑，加之资金有获利了结可能，国内交易所也同步采取相关措施，贵金属等品种出现明显回调。 | 10:01 | | | ·Il ? CD | | | --- | --- | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选公布情况 【市场资讯】1）央行副行长陆磊：新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生 态体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。2）白银跳水，猜疑四起，传闻称某系统重要 性银行因白银期货空头爆仓，有猜测认为涉事方为欧洲大行。3）特朗普：正考虑以"严重 失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1 月或公布下任美联储主席人选。4）俄罗斯称乌 91 架无人机袭击 普京官邸，泽连斯基否认，特朗普"很生气"。5）美军首次袭击委内瑞拉陆地目标？特朗普 称美军摧毁一"大型设施"。6）特朗普会晤内塔尼亚胡，就伊朗核问题再次发出威胁。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年最快 增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。接下来重点关注特朗普 公布的下任美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求 进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内 需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居 ...

新任美联储主席的选拔令市场定价明年联储激进宽松：鲍威尔领导下的美联储在 12 月议息会 议中进行降息和扩表操作，点阵图显示现任联储官员仅预期明年存在一次 25bps 的降息操作。 但市场对于联储货币政策博弈的预期更多集中在新任联储主席的选拔之中。年末，凯文哈塞特 和凯文沃什两大特朗普阵营成员被提名为新任美联储主席的市场预期逐步发酵，而两人均表态 会支持特朗普所希望的降息政策，而特朗普本人也在表明"反对他的人得不到联储主席职位"， 美联储在明年下半年将大概率会进行较为激进的降息操作，这一预期推动国际银价续创历史新 高。 【策略观点】 贵金属日报 2025-12-30 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 4.00 %，报 975.80 元/克，沪银跌 8.74 %，报 17237.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4344.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 71.20 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.14%，美元指数报 98.01 ； ...

Group 1 - The latest spot price of London gold is $4355.41 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $23.76 per ounce, or 0.55% from the previous trading day [1] - The highest price during the day reached $4355.92 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $4322.53 per ounce [1] - The previous closing price was $4331.65 per ounce, and the opening price today was $4329.39 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in early December, signaling a "pause" in monetary policy actions [2] - Analysts expect the upcoming meeting minutes to indicate that further rate cuts will only occur if necessary, reflecting a cautious stance among officials [2] - There is a division among officials regarding inflation and growth risks, with some advocating for a cautious approach due to inflation concerns, while others focus on the labor market and support maintaining a loose monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The daily trend for London gold is weakening, currently in a repair phase, with a significant bearish candle formed yesterday [3] - The gold price has broken below the upward channel's lower boundary and is now in a downward channel, indicating limited rebound potential [3] - The market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment, as reflected by a significant decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced a significant surge in 2023, with gold reaching a historic high of $4500 per ounce, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been a key driver, with expectations of a shift from tightening to easing, culminating in a rate cut in September 2023, which ignited the gold rally [2]. - Geopolitical and economic risks have increased, with ongoing tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. economic pressures, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual acquisitions doubling from 508 tons (2013-2021) to 1058 tons (2022-2024), indicating strong demand for gold [2]. - The acceleration of "de-dollarization" has heightened the demand for gold, as the U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 10% this year, raising concerns about the dollar's creditworthiness [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investment sentiment towards gold has surged, with global gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of approximately $40 billion in the first half of 2025, and domestic gold ETF assets rising from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan, a 223% increase [3]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, predict continued bullish trends for gold, with potential prices reaching $4900 per ounce by 2026, indicating a possible upside of 0.3% to 11.5% from current levels [3]. - The World Gold Council suggests that if geopolitical and economic conditions remain unfavorable, gold prices are likely to continue rising in the coming year [3].

Bond markets wait for minutes of the Fed's December meeting, to be released tomorrow, as the last week of the year gets underway.The central bank cut rates in that meeting with unusually high disagreement among officials, while signaling a possible hold in January, which markets are pricing in.November pending home sales data is due at 10 a.m. ET. ...