Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].

据环球网，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持8月1日例行记者会。会上法新社记者提问称：美国总统特朗普 签署了一项行政令，对大多数国家实施关税。请问外交部对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆对此表示，中方反对滥施关税的立场是一贯和明确的，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，搞保护主义 损害各方的利益。 ...

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 人民财讯8月1日电，8月1日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者问：美国总统特朗普签署了 一项行政令，对大多数国家实施关税。请问外交部有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，中方反对滥施关税的立场是一贯和明确的，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，搞保护主义损害各 方利益。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has recently targeted India with tariffs, marking a shift in its trade strategy after previously pressuring the EU and Japan, which complied with a 15% tariff [1][2][4] - The trade deficit with India stands at $46 billion, with a total bilateral trade volume of approximately $129 billion, prompting U.S. frustration over India's market openness and its ties with Russia [4][6] - India is resisting U.S. pressure, citing its diverse trade options and the need to protect its agricultural sector, which employs 50% of its population [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. is in a contradictory position, wanting to use tariffs to open India's market while fearing that aggressive tactics may push India closer to China, undermining its "Indo-Pacific strategy" [7][9] - Both countries are likely to engage in retaliatory measures, leading to a trade conflict that may harm both sides, as neither is willing to compromise on their core interests [9] - The outcome of this trade dispute could reflect poorly on U.S. strategic objectives, questioning the effectiveness of its approach in maintaining global dominance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a four-month low against the US dollar, raising concerns among Japanese financial officials about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 150.89 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since March 28, with the rate reported at 150.58 yen at the time of publication [3]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu expressed concerns about the current exchange rate trends, emphasizing the importance of stable currency fluctuations that reflect economic fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Predictions - Kato indicated that the US tariffs on Japan could impact the Japanese economy, and the government will continue to analyze the tariffs' effects on Japanese industries [5]. - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market Research warned that the yen could depreciate to 155 against the dollar, which could trigger intervention from Japanese authorities to support the yen [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The yen's decline is closely linked to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has been bolstered by reduced concerns over trade wars and a slightly hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve [7]. - The US dollar index surpassed 100.10 for the first time since May 29, reflecting a strong dollar environment [7]. - The Bank of Japan's dovish stance, as indicated by Governor Ueda, suggests a tolerance for the current weakness of the yen, which has led to increased dollar buying [8][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market is weakening, with various energy and chemical products showing different trends. Some products are trending down, some are in a volatile state, and some are facing pressure or have potential opportunities [2][10]. - For specific products, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, there are corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand and cost situations [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The commodity market is weakening, and PX多头减仓. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply has a marginal decrease, and the cost side is strengthening [5][10]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads for the basis - spread arbitrage. Supply pressure is increasing, and the 01 contract's long - PX short - PTA strategy can be considered. The basis is in a reverse - arbitrage situation, and the 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage can be focused on [10][12]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, and the basis - spread strategy is to go long on the basis and short on the month spread. There is supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention can be paid to the short - MEG long - L arbitrage [12][13]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is in a volatile state. This week, the macro and fundamental factors have turned from strong to weak, leading to a high - level correction of rubber prices. The downstream tire enterprise procurement has weakened, and the inventory has increased [14][18]. c. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. Although the overall commodity speculative sentiment is weakening, the significant decline in butadiene's port and production enterprise inventories provides support at the valuation end [19][21]. d. Asphalt - It is in a high - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the possible rise of crude oil prices again. This week, the domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased, the maintenance volume has decreased, and the shipment volume has increased [22][33]. e. LLDPE - The trend still has pressure. Macroscopically, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The cost is rising due to the increase in crude oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is not strong [34][35]. f. PP - The spot price is falling, and the trading is light. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, which increases the wait - and - see sentiment of market participants. The cost support of the supply side is weakening, and the downstream procurement is cautious [38][39]. g. Caustic Soda - There are still expectations for the peak - season demand. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the price increase momentum is insufficient, but it is supported by the cost. In the long term, there is potential for demand growth [41][43]. h. Pulp - It is in a weakly volatile state. The reasons for the price fluctuation include the decline of the futures price following the overall commodity market, weak spot demand, and unresolved supply pressure [46][49]. i. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float - glass original - sheet price fluctuates, with some regions' prices rising and some falling. The downstream is digesting inventory, and the enterprise shipment is partly slowing down [51][52]. j. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The port methanol market is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. The inland market is rising, mainly due to the increase in external procurement by northwest olefin plants [56][58]. k. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The enterprise inventory has increased, the domestic demand is weakening, and the export is not meeting expectations. In the short term, it is expected to be under oscillating pressure [60][61]. l. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly considered as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage [63][64]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply has a slight increase, and the downstream demand is tepid, with procurement mainly for on - demand replenishment [65][67]. n. PVC - It is in a short - term weakly volatile state. The fundamentals have not improved significantly during the "anti - involution" process. The industry has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [70][72]. o. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session has weakened, and it has entered a short - term oscillating state. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The consolidation trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [75]. p. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions as appropriate, or the weak trend may continue. The index has been running weakly, with the main contracts showing declines and position reductions [77][84].

Group 1 - The core issue is India's refusal to fully open its agricultural market to U.S. products, despite facing a 25% tariff, due to the political implications for the Modi government [1][3][9] - The agricultural sector in India supports 42% of the population, making it a critical political and economic issue for the ruling party [1][3] - Modi's previous attempts at agricultural reform faced massive protests, highlighting the sensitivity of agricultural policies in India [3][9] Group 2 - U.S. agricultural products, particularly genetically modified soybeans and industrialized dairy, pose a significant threat to Indian farmers, who may not survive a price war [3][6] - The Indian dairy market, dominated by Amul and supported by millions of small farmers, is particularly vulnerable to U.S. competition [3][6] - The trade relationship between India and the U.S. is complex, with India relying heavily on exports of generics, IT services, and textiles, which are difficult for the U.S. to replace [6][7] Group 3 - Modi's government is exploring alternatives to reduce dependence on the U.S., including increasing oil purchases from Russia using non-dollar settlements [6][7] - The ongoing trade tensions could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly in pharmaceuticals and IT outsourcing [7][9] - The standoff represents an asymmetric confrontation, where Modi prioritizes political survival over economic concessions, while Trump seeks electoral gains [9]

期货研究 烧碱：旺季需求仍有期待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2560 830 2594 34 2025 年 8 月 1 日 【市场状况分析】 宏观端，关注 8 月贸易战超预期风险，同时近期反内卷情绪有所走弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面 并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行业。 目前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强，未来需要关注耗氯下 游对烧碱供应的影响。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，因此烧碱短期承压，长期看，烧碱旺季 需求仍有期待。 【趋势强度】 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 8 月 1 日起价格下调 10 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨。 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 -69.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1425.100 | | 1692.3 | -63.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -267.20 +2.10↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | | -59.60 | +3.70↑ | | | EC合约基差 891.46 +43.60↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 51818 -3056↓ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 2316.56 -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,284.01 | -17.80↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1592.59 -54.31↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1261 ...