1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals experienced a significant pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 4.71%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 6.03%, the main contract of platinum closed down 11.79%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 11.87%. The short - term risk - aversion factors related to trade wars and geopolitical risks have eased in the short term but still exist in the medium and long term. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2] - **Price data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $5410.80 per ounce, down $37.00 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $472.40 (9.57%) from the previous week. The London gold price was $5405.00 per ounce, up $98.05 (1.85%) from the previous day and up $572.95 (11.86%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1161.42 yuan per gram, down 87.70 yuan (-7.02%) from the previous day and up 45.78 yuan (4.10%) from the previous week [2] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of Comex gold was 528,004 lots, an increase of 549 lots (0.10%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 187,290 lots, a decrease of 24,530 lots (-11.58%) from the previous day and a decrease of 19,290 lots (-9.34%) from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9,106 tons, an increase of 200 tons (2.24%) from the previous week [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [4] - **Price data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $115.79 per ounce, down $0.84 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up $19.57 (20.34%) from the previous week. The London silver price was $118.45 per ounce, up $5.66 (5.01%) from the previous day and up $25.07 (26.85%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 27,941 yuan per kilogram, down 2,950 yuan (-9.55%) from the previous day and up 2,976 yuan (11.92%) from the previous week [4] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of Comex silver was 152,020 lots, unchanged from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,912,390 lots, a decrease of 305,880 lots (-7.25%) from the previous day and a decrease of 832,845 lots (-17.55%) from the previous week. The LBMA silver inventory was 27,818 tons, an increase of 631 tons (2.32%) from the previous week [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with good position management and stop - loss/take - profit [6] - **Price data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2627.10 per ounce, up $148.30 (5.98%) from the previous day and up $211.30 (8.75%) from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2507.00 per ounce, up $5.00 (0.20%) from the previous day and up $121.00 (5.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the GQEX was 685.90 yuan per gram, up 52.05 yuan (8.21%) from the previous day and up 75.85 yuan (12.43%) from the previous week [7] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 66,423 lots, a decrease of 341 lots (-0.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 399 lots (0.26%) from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, a decrease of 0 tons (-1.46%) from the previous day and an increase of 1 ton (4.94%) from the previous week [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [8] - **Price data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1945.50 per ounce, up $71.00 (3.79%) from the previous day and up $80.00 (4.29%) from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1850.00 per ounce, up $44.00 (2.35%) from the previous day and up $44.00 (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the GQEX was 497.95 yuan per gram, up 14.20 yuan (2.94%) from the previous day and up 28.60 yuan (6.09%) from the previous week [9] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 17,998 lots, a decrease of 40 lots (-0.22%) from the previous day and a decrease of 395 lots (-2.15%) from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (2.54%) from the previous week [9] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate was 3.75%, also a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve were $6,638.091 billion, an increase of $5.371 billion (0.00%) [10] - **Inflation in the US**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, unchanged; the month - on - month CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.60%, unchanged; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points [10] - **US economic growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.40%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points. The unemployment rate was 4.40%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points [10] - **US labor market**: The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 50,000, a decrease of 6,000. The labor participation rate was 62.10%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [10] - **US real estate market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, a decrease of 2.00 points (-5.13%). Existing home sales were 4.35 million units, an increase of 240,000 units (5.84%); new home sales were 570,000 units, unchanged; new home starts were 1.061 million units, unchanged [10] - **US consumption**: The year - on - year retail sales were 3.09%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points; the month - on - month retail sales were - 0.10%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.40% year - on - year, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and increased by 0.51% month - on - month, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [10][12] - **US industry**: The year - on - year industrial production index was 1.99%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points; the month - on - month industrial production index was 0.37%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate was 76.26%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [12] - **US trade**: The year - on - year export was - 30.01%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points; the month - on - month export was 1.14%, an increase of 4.38 percentage points. The year - on - year import was - 28.69%, a decrease of 9.61 percentage points; the month - on - month import was 8.71%, an increase of 9.72 percentage points. The trade balance was - $56.8 billion, a decrease of $27.6 billion (-94.57%) [12] - **US economic surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 47.90, a decrease of 0.30 points; the ISM services PMI index was 54.40, an increase of 1.80 points. The Michigan consumer confidence index was 56.40, an increase of 5.40 points [12] - **Central bank gold reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,306.32 tons, an increase of 1.87 tons (0.08%); the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves were 36,362.76 tons, unchanged [12] - **IMF foreign exchange reserve ratio**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points (-2.53%); the euro accounted for 21.13%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points (5.61%); the RMB accounted for 2.12%, a decrease of 0.00 percentage points (-0.03%) [12] - **Gold/foreign exchange reserves**: China's ratio was 8.34%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points (4.06%); the US ratio was 81.98%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points (1.08%) [12] - **Risk - aversion attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 67.15, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 83.42 points (-55.41%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 16.88, an increase of 0.53 points (3.24%) from the previous day and an increase of 1.24 points (7.93%) from the previous week [12] - **Commodity attributes**: The CRB commodity index was 323.71, an increase of 4.81 points (1.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 11.47 points (3.67%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9445, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 0.0156 points (-0.22%) from the previous week [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each meeting date from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided. For example, at the meeting on March 18, 2026, the probability of the interest rate in the range of 325 - 350 was 15.4%, and the probability of 350 - 375 was 84.6% [15]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump announced the revocation of certification for all Canadian-manufactured aircraft and threatened a 50% tariff on these planes until U.S. Gulfstream aircraft receive equivalent certification in Canada [1][3][4] Group 1: Aircraft Certification and Tariffs - The revocation includes Bombardier's Global Express business jets and "all Canadian-manufactured aircraft" [1][3] - Trump claims that Canada is using the certification process to effectively ban Gulfstream products from being sold in Canada [4] - It remains unclear whether Trump has the legal authority to revoke aircraft certifications, as this power traditionally lies with the FAA's aviation safety experts [4] Group 2: Impact on Airlines and Operations - If implemented, the revocation could severely impact U.S. airlines and passengers, particularly affecting the CRJ regional jets used for short-haul flights [1][5] - Currently, U.S. airlines operate 648 Canadian-manufactured CRJ jets, which are scheduled for over 2,600 flights daily, providing approximately 175,000 passenger seats [5] - The potential grounding of these aircraft could lead to significant disruptions in U.S. air travel, especially for rural areas where 64% of airports rely solely on regional airlines [5] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Richard Aboulafia, an industry consultant, criticized the use of aviation safety as a tool in trade disputes, calling it a "terrible idea" [4] - An anonymous industry source suggested that Trump's actual target may be business jets, despite his broad statement about all aircraft [5] - Aboulafia warned that removing CRJ jets from the U.S. aviation system could result in a transportation disaster, significantly impacting the aviation infrastructure [5]

Key Takeaways Gold surged to new all-time highs above $5,500. Bitcoin has dropped sharply below $90,000, erasing 2026 gans. Investors favor physical gold for stability while selling crypto during uncertainty, delaying Bitcoin’s hedging narrative. Gold is on an absolute tear in 2026. Prices have ripped past $5,500 an ounce, extending an 18%+ year-to-date rally and pushing gains to over 60% since 2025. In a single day, gold added roughly the equivalent of Bitcoin’s entire market cap, underscoring jus ...

Group 1: US Dollar Weakness - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline, falling by 9% against a basket of international currencies last year, with an additional drop of over 2% in January [1][2] - The weakness of the dollar is largely attributed to actions and threats from President Trump, including trade wars and military actions, which have undermined the dollar's global standing [2][3] - Market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and increased public spending have raised concerns about a potential government shutdown, contributing to a crisis of confidence in the dollar [3][5] Group 2: Impact on UK and Global Markets - The pound has risen to its highest level against the dollar since July 2021, primarily due to dollar weakness rather than a strong push for the pound [9] - A weaker dollar benefits US exports but negatively impacts UK exporters to the US, especially amid heightened US trade tariffs [10] - The decline in the dollar has diminished the value of dollar-denominated assets for UK-based companies, affecting their earnings and investment values [11] Group 3: Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Economic policy uncertainty is increasing due to ongoing tariff threats and the potential for another government shutdown, leading to a "Sell America" sentiment in the markets [14] - Despite positive economic fundamentals, there is a prevailing reluctance to invest in the dollar, with analysts cautioning against catching the "falling chainsaw" that is the US dollar [15]

投资咨询系列报告 上期所期货公司会员沪金净持仓排名前10 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月28日15时43分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨3.58%，沪银主力收涨2.92%，铂金主力收跌0.17%，钯金主力收涨跌1.80%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击群向中东 集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业 疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the articles is the evolving international trade dynamics under the Trump administration, particularly highlighting the recent cooperation between China and Canada in the electric vehicle sector, which has raised concerns in the U.S. [1][3] - The signing of the "China-Canada Economic Cooperation Roadmap" marks a significant high-level agreement, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market at a 6.1% most-favored-nation tax rate, breaking previous trade barriers [1] - This cooperation is seen as a reflection of China's adaptability in the North American market, showcasing its advanced technology in the electric vehicle sector [1] Group 2 - The partnership between China and Canada is perceived as a mutually beneficial economic choice, yet it has triggered strategic anxieties in the U.S., with Trump suggesting that such cooperation could undermine American influence in North America [3] - Canada has responded to U.S. pressures by not only pursuing its partnership with China but also achieving breakthroughs in agricultural trade, such as reducing the comprehensive tax rate on canola seed imports to approximately 15% [3] - The article notes that more Western countries, like Finland, are also showing a willingness to deepen cooperation with China, with bilateral trade exceeding $8 billion and investment stock surpassing $23 billion [5] Group 3 - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma as its traditional allies begin to reassess their relationships, with some seeking more independent foreign policies, as exemplified by California's governor expressing interest in participating in World Health Organization matters [7] - China's proactive approach in international relations, particularly in the electric vehicle and high-end manufacturing sectors, is highlighted as a response to U.S. trade pressures, indicating a shift towards multilateral cooperation [7] - The articles suggest that the short-term benefits of Trump's tariff policies are fading, leading to increased risks for the U.S., including potential threats to financial security if European countries decide to sell off U.S. debt [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

Group 1: Market Analysis - Trump's remarks caused the US dollar index to fall more than 1% to 95.7905, hitting a nearly four - year low. He also decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [1] - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, due to geopolitical tensions, high living costs, and trade wars [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,145.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1,148.38 yuan/gram, a 0.44% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 1,142.00 yuan/gram, a 0.56% drop from the afternoon close [2] - The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 27,300.00 yuan/kg and closed at 28,300.00 yuan/kg, a 4.02% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,038,738 lots, and the open interest was 310,210 lots. The overnight session closed at 27,702 yuan/kg, a 2.11% drop from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 27, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.65%, a - 0.6BP change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by 5,015 lots, and the short position changed by 381 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 573,180 lots, a - 1.08% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by - 10,773 lots, and the short position changed by - 6,800 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,534,159 lots, a 6.64% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,086.53 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,974 tons, a decrease of 116 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 27, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 16.39 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 863.14 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 40.58, a - 3.44% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 46.47, a - 3.71% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On January 27, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 109,368 kg, a 32.01% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 627,160 kg, a - 10.69% change from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to increased market risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar index, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,120 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. After an overnight adjustment, silver prices may be relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The Ag2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 27,500 yuan/kg and 30,000 yuan/kg [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌；可以让美元像一个yo-yo（悠悠球）一样波动； 并不认为美元下跌太多；美元正在回归其自身应有的水平，这是合理的；日本一直都想让货币贬值。受 此消息影响，美元指数一度跌超1%报95.7905，创近四年以来新低。此外，美国总统特朗普称，鉴于韩 国方面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对 等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。经济数据方面，世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘政治 紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创 2014年以来新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-27，沪金主力合约开于1145.94元/克，收于1148.38元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.44%。当日 成交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1142.00元/克， 较昨日午后收盘下跌0.56%。 2026-01-27，沪 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - The consumer confidence index in the US has declined, which may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is recommended to control risks and not be overly bullish in the short term [1] - The domestic methanol market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to high domestic methanol production, decreased downstream demand, and rising port inventory [1] - The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and its price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] - The iron ore price is expected to have a correction due to slow demand recovery and other factors, maintaining a medium - term bearish view [3] - Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand, high costs, and bearish market expectations [4] - The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4] - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions [5] - The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude due to supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] - Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment, but it may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] - The long - term government bond market is bearish due to the positive growth of industrial enterprise profits and tight capital, and it will mainly fluctuate [7] - The crude oil price is boosted by geopolitical risks and production disruptions, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term due to weak demand and high - pressure new capacity [9] - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [11] - The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation, and short - term trading is recommended [12] - The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for new drivers [13] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13] Group 3: Summary by Variety Silver - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, hitting a new low since 2014. The decline may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is not recommended to be overly bullish in the short term [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 5.04 tons to 11.31 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a decrease of 1.18%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate was 71.26%, a decrease of 1.3%. The methanol port sample inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, and the domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.25 tons to 43.83 tons. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1] Silicon Iron - The开工 rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 29.63%, a slight increase of 0.09%. The daily output was 14155 tons, an increase of 20 tons. The market has weak supply and demand, and the price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 14.50 tons to 320.52 tons. The Australian ore inventory increased by 193.84 tons to 7776.05 tons, and the Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 78.43 tons to 6090.71 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 2 to 122. The iron ore price is expected to have a correction [3] Rebar - On January 27, domestic steel market prices fell slightly. The price of common billet resources in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. One steel mill lowered the price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 3315 yuan/ton. Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term [4] Live Pigs - On January 27, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 130.39, and the "wholesale price index of vegetable basket products" was 133.33. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%. The price of eggs was 8.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2%. The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range [4] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 746745 tons, a decrease of 9.41% compared with the same period last month. Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic [5] Soybean Meal - On January 27, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable or slightly decreased. The trading volume of major oil mills decreased by 4.85 tons to 13.37 tons. The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude [6] Gold - Trump decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment but may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] Long - term Government Bonds - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The long - term government bond market is bearish and will mainly fluctuate [7] Crude Oil - In January, the extreme cold weather in the US may reduce the daily crude oil production by about 390,000 barrels. As of January 23, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 247,000 barrels. The geopolitical risks and production disruptions boost the oil price, and short - term trading is recommended [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.46%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased by 3.42% to 152.12 tons. The float glass market has a general trading atmosphere, and the soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term [9] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89%. The social inventory increased by 2.92% to 117.75 tons. The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [11] Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue was 57.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue was 53.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 25, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.04 tons to 58.45 tons. The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation [12] PTA - The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.3%. The PTA spot processing fee was 426 yuan/ton. The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] Copper - Chile's new government has a goal of increasing copper production by 20% in the next one or two years, but it will take several years to release new production capacity. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [13] Aluminum - EGA and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, which is expected to start construction at the end of 2026 and be put into operation at the end of 2030. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13]