当地时间9月14日至15日，中美两国代表团在西班牙马德里举行了第四轮高层贸易谈判。这是继斯德哥尔摩会谈后，双方在关税停火协议背景下再一次续 谈。 此次会谈的核心内容主要有四点： 1、关税问题。双方在稀土、半导体、农产品等领域互加关税已导致全球供应链紧张。美国希望中国在关键原材料出口上做出让步，而中方则坚持美方必须 减少对中国企业的限制。 2、技术与出口管制。美国对中国先进芯片和相关设备的出口限制，一直被中方谴责。而中国也不惯着，采取了对等反制措施，发起对美国芯片产品的反倾 销调查，以平衡谈判筹码。 3、TikTok问题。美国要求字节跳动在9月17日前剥离TikTok美国业务，否则将采取进一步措施。中方则认为此举涉及企业正当权益，要求美方避免泛化国家 安全概念。 4、能源与地缘政治。美国提出希望中国减少从俄罗斯进口石油，以避免为俄乌冲突提供资金支持，中方对此态度一直都是公开公正的，这是中俄之间的正 常贸易。 这也不能怪他们，现在很多欧盟国家都在担心，如果真对中国全面加税，后果不堪设想，这将直接冲击欧洲本已脆弱的经济。尤其是德国、法国等在对华贸 易上依赖度较高的国家。欧洲媒体指出，如果跟随美国对中国征收100%关 ...

之前，美国一直催着日本、欧盟这些盟友，去对中国、印度这类买了很多俄罗斯石油的国家搞 "进一步 制裁"，还要加50%甚至100%的关税，理由是 "这些国家在给俄罗斯提供战争资金"。 但到了9月16日下午，日本财务大臣加藤胜信却明确拒绝了美国这个要求。 真没想到啊，美国最铁的盟友，这一次竟公开站出来说"不"！ 对华的"老套路"失效 说到特朗普的"关税战术"，关注国际新闻的朋友可能都不陌生。 从2018年对华挑起贸易战开始，他就一直把加征关税当作"万能药"，不管什么问题，似乎都觉得多征点 税就能让对方服软。 但到了2025年，他这套打法有了新变化，他硬要把俄乌冲突和中美贸易扯到一起，声称"中国买俄罗斯 石油"，所以鼓动G7国家一起对中国加税。 这一招看似来势汹汹，其实背后反映出的是美国的战略焦虑。 根据2025年中国海关总署发布的关税调整时间表，美国从2月份就开始不断加码，先是借"芬太尼问 题"加了10%的关税，3月又提到20%，4月更离谱，搞出一套"对等关税"机制，把部分中国商品的税率 一路推高到145%。 信息来源：新华社/2025.05.12中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行 虽然后来5月份中美在日内瓦举行了高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, precious metals have surged, with silver rising by 3.81% and gold increasing over 2%, surpassing the 3700 mark and setting a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver has shown a significant increase of 3.81% [1] - Gold has risen over 2%, reaching above 3700, marking a new historical high [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have increased their gold purchases, adding over 400 tons in the first half of this year, following three consecutive years of buying over 1000 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The trend of rising gold prices is supported by a shift towards de-globalization, the U.S. initiating trade wars, and a gradual decline in the credibility of the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's re-initiation of the interest rate cut cycle is expected to further weaken the dollar, opening up more upward potential for gold prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Silver, being a smaller market commodity, is expected to show greater elasticity, with its price likely to exceed that of gold in the later stages of a gold bull market [1]

Group 1 - The G7 summit concluded with President Trump urging traditional allies like Japan and Germany to impose high tariffs on goods from China and India, ranging from 50% to 100% [1][3] - Japan's Finance Minister, Taro Kato, stated that Japan would not impose additional tariffs on China and India, citing World Trade Organization (WTO) rules as a defense [5][7] - Japan emphasized the principles of most-favored-nation treatment and non-discrimination under WTO rules, arguing that raising tariffs based solely on energy trade with Russia is prohibited [9] Group 2 - Japan's refusal to comply with Trump's demands reflects its deep economic ties with China, as evidenced by a nearly balanced trade volume of $206.4 billion in the first eight months of 2025 [10] - Historical lessons from the Plaza Accord in 1985, which led to Japan's economic stagnation, have influenced Japan's current independent stance on economic policies [12] - Japan's energy security strategy includes diversifying energy sources, with Russian energy imports being a key component, while also preparing to increase purchases from other regions [14] Group 3 - The political environment in Japan, particularly the impending resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has provided a favorable context for rejecting U.S. demands [14] - China's strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and potential retaliatory measures has also played a crucial role in Japan's decision [15] - The U.S. has not immediately retaliated against Japan's refusal, indicating the complexity of U.S.-Japan relations and the ongoing security cooperation between the two nations [17] Group 4 - Japan's decision to reject Trump's tariff demands may signal a shift in global trade dynamics, where even close allies begin to prioritize national interests and international rules over blind allegiance [19]

谈判落幕之际，特朗普在社交媒体上发表长文，罕见承认美国制造业严重衰退，甚至坦言连航母建造都 困难重重。这位素来强硬的总统突然自揭短板，显然事出偶然。回顾其任期内的对华政策，虽然花样百 出却收效甚微。谈判期间，美方试图打台湾牌施压，不料解放军立即在山东外海展开实弹演习。现场目 这场在马德里举行的贸易谈判无疑是当前国际舞台的焦点事件。据最新报道，中国商务部代表李成钢在 15日宣布，双方就TikTok等经贸议题达成初步共识。从结果来看，美方显然未能如愿以偿。这一局面其 实早有预兆——谈判前夕，美方曾高调表示对现有关税政策相当满意，并暗示在元首会晤前不会调整关 税。 击者拍摄的画面显示，两枚导弹在空中完成精准拦截，这场家门口的实战演练既检验了战力，更展示了 中国捍卫核心利益的决心。 特朗普态度软化实属形势所迫。美国最后的台湾牌已然失效，国内更是乱象丛生：政治暴力事件频发， 两极化对立加剧。在国际舞台上，传统盟友纷纷转向，连巴西、加拿大等国家也开始深化与华合作。更 关键的是，美国制造业竞争力持续下滑，正如特朗普亲口承认的那样，现在连航母建造都屡屡延期。若 继续贸易战，美国承受的代价可能远超中国。 中美贸易谈判近期在西班 ...

9月初，墨西哥政府宣布计划对未与其签订贸易协议的国家上调进口关税。专家分析认为，这明显是墨 西哥在美国压力下做出的决定。紧接着在9月9日，特朗普公开呼吁欧盟应对购买俄罗斯能源的中国、印 度等国征收100%的二级关税，企图借此向俄罗斯施压。这些举动表明，美国正试图组建一个针对中国 的关税联盟。 今年以来，美国政府持续向盟友施压，要求他们对中国商品加征关税。虽然取得了一些成效，但并未获 得广泛支持。最新动态显示，美方的施压行动正在变本加厉。 美国还积极拉拢中国周边国家。7月与越南达成协议，对经越南转运的中国商品征收40%高关税。同 月，韩国也宣布对中国热轧钢板征收最高33.57%的反倾销税，时机恰好在美韩经贸谈判期间，讨好美 国的意图十分明显。 美国组建关税联盟主要有三个：一是封堵中国商品通过第三国转口的渠道；二是借助盟友力量共同遏制 中国；三是让别国承担贸易战的主要代价。但历史证明，贸易战没有赢家。中国外交部已明确表态，反 对任何国家在美国胁迫下对华设限。那些打算追随美国对中国加税的国家，确实需要慎重考虑后果。 仔细观察近期全球多国对华关税政策的调整，几乎都能发现美国在背后推波助澜。9月4日，墨西哥总统 辛鲍姆 ...

申银万国期货：目前船司9月底大柜均价在1500美元左右，折算成现货指数基本和10合约持平，马士基 当前报价已低于5月份报价，为年内新低同时也是2023年底绕行好望角以来新低，国庆前运价继续加速 下行。目前统计到10月周均运力降至28万TEU左右，运力相对有所下降，国庆黄金周后运价下行速率或 有放缓，关注后续船司调降节奏。 现货报价方面，达飞将9月末小柜与大柜订舱价格分别下调50美元和100美元至1010美元/TEU和1620美 元/FEU；赫伯罗特将9月末至10月上旬部分航次运价调降至985美元/TEU。 9月8日至9月12日，中国出口集装箱运输市场基本稳定，多数航线市场运价下跌，拖累综合指数下行。 据海关总署最新公布的数据显示，按美元计，中国8月出口同比增长4.4%，出口贸易延续平稳增长态 势。 机构观点 9月22日，集运指数（欧线）期货大幅走高，截至发稿主力合约报1103.0点，涨幅2.86%。 【消息面汇总】 上周五SCFI综合指数为1198.21点，周环比下跌14.30%，总体呈现加速下跌态势，具体航线来看，美 东、美西运价跌幅居前，创2023年12月以来新低，NCFI欧线环比下跌7.65%，跌至红海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing trade war, China's exports remain resilient, with a total export value of $2.5 trillion in the first eight months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Export Performance - In August, China's exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, although this was a slowdown from July due to a high base effect caused by the previous year's typhoon [1] - Exports to emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, have shown strong growth, offsetting the decline in exports to the U.S. [1] - From January to August, China's exports to Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America increased by 24.7%, 14.6%, and 5.8% respectively, while exports to the U.S. decreased by 15.5% [1] Product Analysis - In August, the export of electromechanical products continued to show strong growth, with integrated circuits and LCD panel display modules performing particularly well [2] Market Diversification - The impact of U.S. tariffs is prompting Chinese companies to accelerate market diversification and overseas expansion [3] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Africa, reducing reliance on the U.S. market [3] - The share of exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to increase significantly from 2017 to 2024 [3] Competitive Advantages - China's competitive edge in exports is attributed to three main factors: low electricity costs, industrial clustering, and a skilled workforce [4] - Despite high tariffs, Chinese products remain competitively priced compared to imports from other countries, with some U.S. import prices being 100% higher than China's [4] - By 2024, China is projected to maintain its position as the global leader in exports across nearly all industries, with significant growth in household appliances, machinery, textiles, and automotive parts [4] Electronics Sector Growth - The global demand for AI is driving rapid growth in downstream sectors such as consumer electronics, IoT, industrial connectivity, and automotive electronics, significantly boosting China's electronic product exports [5] - From January to August, integrated circuit exports increased by 22.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected growth rate for 2024 [5] - The importance of exports to China's economy is underscored by the stabilization of the economic fundamentals and the recovery of market sentiment [5]

After President Donald Trump shocked global markets with his aggressive tariffs earlier this year, investors turned away from the U.S. and went elsewhere—but the scales are tilting back again. U.S. stocks have made furious rebounds, setting fresh record highs and eroding the outperformance that European markets have enjoyed for much of this year. The S&P 500 is now up 13% year to date and the Nasdaq is up 17%. As recently as late June, when the broad market index had retaken its prior all-time high, bo ...

2025年9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这一举措预示着黄金市场将迎来新的变化。根据预 测，2025年还会有两次降息，对于黄金投资者而言，这无疑是一个积极信号。不过，并非所有投资者都 对当前投资黄金持乐观态度。 著名投资家沃伦·巴菲特曾说过："如果你持有一盎司黄金直至永恒，到最后你仍然只有一盎司黄金 。"这句话看似简单，却反映出巴菲特对黄金投资的看法。在他看来，黄金作为非生产性资产，既不会 产生收益，工业用途也不广泛，回报因素多变，长期上涨潜力不明。并且，一旦社会不再赋予黄金价 值，它就可能变得一文不值。但如今，黄金已走出牛市行情。2025年9月16日晚间，现货黄金价格一度 突破3700美元。自2012年巴菲特发表相关言论以来，金价涨幅已达220%，不仅超越了2011年创下的历 史高点，还超过了1980年1月经通胀调整后的金价峰值。 在当前国际形势下，黄金成为了备受青睐的投资避风港。特朗普不断升级贸易战，美国债务水平持续攀 升，美联储独立性日益衰弱，这些因素都增强了黄金的吸引力。据彭博数据显示，今年投资者大量涌入 黄金支持的交易所交易基金，9月初的总持仓量达到2023年6月以来的最高水平。尽管从长期 ...