行业咨询公司航空动力咨询董事总经理Richard Aboulafia表示，历任美国总统均未直接撤销过飞机认证 资格，这一决定权向来归美国联邦航空管理局的航空安全专家所有。 他直言："将航空安全作为贸易战的工具，绝对是个糟糕透顶的主意。" 若特朗普真的下令停飞所有加拿大制造的飞机，将对美国航空公司和乘客造成沉重打击。除商务机外， 庞巴迪生产的CRJ支线客机广泛用于短途接驳航班，主要负责将乘客从小型机场转运至大型枢纽机场， 美国联合航空、达美航空和美国航空旗下的支线航空公司均在使用该机型运营接驳航班。 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普当地时间周四宣布，将撤销所有加拿大制造飞机的认证资格，并威胁对这些飞 机加50%的关税，直至美国产湾流飞机在加拿大获得同等认证。 特朗普明确表示，此次撤销认证的机型包括魁北克庞巴迪公司生产的环球快车商务机，以及"所有加拿 大制造的飞机"。 特朗普在"真相社交"平台发文称："加拿大正通过这一认证流程，实际禁止湾流产品在加销售。若此情 况未能立即纠正，我将对所有销往美国的加拿大飞机加50%的关税。" 就在数小时前，有报道称艾伯塔省分离主义者与美国官员会面，加拿大总理马克・卡尼随后表态，希望 特朗普 ...

Key Takeaways Gold surged to new all-time highs above $5,500. Bitcoin has dropped sharply below $90,000, erasing 2026 gans. Investors favor physical gold for stability while selling crypto during uncertainty, delaying Bitcoin’s hedging narrative. Gold is on an absolute tear in 2026. Prices have ripped past $5,500 an ounce, extending an 18%+ year-to-date rally and pushing gains to over 60% since 2025. In a single day, gold added roughly the equivalent of Bitcoin’s entire market cap, underscoring jus ...

Group 1: US Dollar Weakness - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline, falling by 9% against a basket of international currencies last year, with an additional drop of over 2% in January [1][2] - The weakness of the dollar is largely attributed to actions and threats from President Trump, including trade wars and military actions, which have undermined the dollar's global standing [2][3] - Market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and increased public spending have raised concerns about a potential government shutdown, contributing to a crisis of confidence in the dollar [3][5] Group 2: Impact on UK and Global Markets - The pound has risen to its highest level against the dollar since July 2021, primarily due to dollar weakness rather than a strong push for the pound [9] - A weaker dollar benefits US exports but negatively impacts UK exporters to the US, especially amid heightened US trade tariffs [10] - The decline in the dollar has diminished the value of dollar-denominated assets for UK-based companies, affecting their earnings and investment values [11] Group 3: Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Economic policy uncertainty is increasing due to ongoing tariff threats and the potential for another government shutdown, leading to a "Sell America" sentiment in the markets [14] - Despite positive economic fundamentals, there is a prevailing reluctance to invest in the dollar, with analysts cautioning against catching the "falling chainsaw" that is the US dollar [15]

投资咨询系列报告 上期所期货公司会员沪金净持仓排名前10 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月28日15时43分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨3.58%，沪银主力收涨2.92%，铂金主力收跌0.17%，钯金主力收涨跌1.80%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击群向中东 集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业 疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应 ...

特朗普政府的贸易政策下，当今国际舞台已经变成了一个充满变化与戏剧性的竞技场。最近，特朗普再次成为舆论的焦点，原因是中国与加拿大在电动车领 域深化合作的举措，这无疑触动了他的敏感神经。2026年1月，中加两国总理共同见证了《中加经贸合作路线图》的签署。这份文件不仅是两国历史上的首 次高水平合作协议，也标志着双方关系进入了一个崭新的阶段。在这份合作文件中，电动车领域成为了其中的一大亮点。加方宣布，每年最多允许4.9万辆 中国电动车以6.1%的最惠国税率进入加拿大市场，这打破了之前的贸易壁垒，并且证明了中国新能源汽车技术在北美市场的适配性。 加拿大的选择并非个例，越来越多的西方国家在与中国的合作中展现出了不同的态度。芬兰便是其中的代表之一，作为中国在欧洲的重要经贸伙伴，芬兰与 中国的合作基础深厚。2025年，两国的双边贸易额超过了80亿美元，双向投资存量也突破了230亿美元。芬兰总理奥尔波近期带领20余家企业的高层访华， 涉及清洁能源、数字经济等领域，双方还计划签署多项合作协议，显示出双方深化合作的强烈意愿。在此背景下，美国的战略困局似乎更加明显。美国国内 的动荡和矛盾，不仅令特朗普无法全身心专注于国际贸易博弈，还 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

Group 1: Market Analysis - Trump's remarks caused the US dollar index to fall more than 1% to 95.7905, hitting a nearly four - year low. He also decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [1] - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, due to geopolitical tensions, high living costs, and trade wars [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,145.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1,148.38 yuan/gram, a 0.44% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 1,142.00 yuan/gram, a 0.56% drop from the afternoon close [2] - The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 27,300.00 yuan/kg and closed at 28,300.00 yuan/kg, a 4.02% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,038,738 lots, and the open interest was 310,210 lots. The overnight session closed at 27,702 yuan/kg, a 2.11% drop from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 27, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.65%, a - 0.6BP change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by 5,015 lots, and the short position changed by 381 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 573,180 lots, a - 1.08% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by - 10,773 lots, and the short position changed by - 6,800 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,534,159 lots, a 6.64% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,086.53 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,974 tons, a decrease of 116 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 27, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 16.39 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 863.14 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 40.58, a - 3.44% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 46.47, a - 3.71% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On January 27, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 109,368 kg, a 32.01% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 627,160 kg, a - 10.69% change from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to increased market risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar index, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,120 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. After an overnight adjustment, silver prices may be relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The Ag2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 27,500 yuan/kg and 30,000 yuan/kg [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌；可以让美元像一个yo-yo（悠悠球）一样波动； 并不认为美元下跌太多；美元正在回归其自身应有的水平，这是合理的；日本一直都想让货币贬值。受 此消息影响，美元指数一度跌超1%报95.7905，创近四年以来新低。此外，美国总统特朗普称，鉴于韩 国方面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对 等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。经济数据方面，世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘政治 紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创 2014年以来新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-27，沪金主力合约开于1145.94元/克，收于1148.38元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.44%。当日 成交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1142.00元/克， 较昨日午后收盘下跌0.56%。 2026-01-27，沪 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘 政治紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费 者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创2014年以来新低。 评：消费者信息指数下降，美国风暴依然持续，或影响市场的 风险偏好，利空白银。市场静待美联储议息会议公布，外盘白 银创新高并收长上影线，建议管控风险，短期不建议过分看 多。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-甲醇】西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 11.31万吨，环比增加5.04万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2267元/ 吨，下降33元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.92%，环比- 1.18%；下游总产能利用率71.26%，周下降1.3%；甲醇港口样本 库存145.75万吨，周上升2.22万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库 存43.83万吨，周降1.25万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需 求下降，甲醇港口库存累库，江苏沿江主流库区提货良好。内 地甲醇市场涨跌互现，企业竞拍成交顺畅为主，港口甲醇市场 基差偏强，商谈成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场 表现尚可，预计短期震荡偏强。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月28日 ...

萨斯喀彻温省的清晨总飘着干草和柴油混着的味儿。2025年8月14日，58岁的菜农老约翰蹲在田埂上划手机，屏幕上跳出来的红数字刺得他眼睛生疼—— 75.8%。这不是降雨概率，是中国刚宣布的反倾销保证金。他手里的咖啡杯"哐当"摔在土坷垃上，溅起的泥点子糊了一裤腿。 老约翰种了30年油菜籽，家里300英亩地全指着这季收成。去年收完菜籽，他刚花2万加元换了新粮仓，想着今年能多存点等涨价。现在手机里弹出的新闻标 题比冰雹还砸人："中国对加拿大菜籽油加征75.8%关税"。他翻出女儿的大学录取通知书，学费还差8000加元，原本指望这季菜籽能覆盖，现在算笔账—— 按去年出口中国的价格，加75.8%的税，每吨成本直接多了320加元（按2024年加拿大菜籽出口中国均价420加元/吨计算），相当于白种半亩地。 键盘侠们还在网上喊"不卖中国卖别人"，可他们不知道，老约翰的粮仓里堆着200吨菜籽，再过两个月就要发霉；不知道加拿大菜籽的替代市场，需要3-5年 才能培育起来；不知道国际贸易的规则，从来都是用数字说话，不是用键盘。 反倾销不是"卡脖子"，是国际贸易的安全阀。就像你开店，隔壁卖同款商品比你进货价还低，你能不找市场管理员？加拿大 ...