特朗普一上台，就把贸易战这把火烧得更旺。4月2日，他签了那个"解放日"行政令，对中国电动汽车和太阳能电池加征关税，税率直奔100%甚至更高。想 想看，美国那边企业本来就叫苦不迭，成本一涨，消费者荷包就瘪了。 可中国这边呢，稳扎稳打，继续推自己的新能源出口。结果呢，上半年光伏组件出口量就涨了25%，电池也跟着水涨船高，达23%的增速。 转眼到10月9日，中国商务部甩出第61号公告，对中重稀土和永磁体实施出口管制。这招直戳美国痛处，因为稀土是高科技和国防的命根子，F-35战机、导 弹制导，全都离不开。公告一出，美国五角大楼那边估计得连夜开会，库存撑不了几个月。 商务部还强调，这不是随便玩玩，而是针对境外组织和个人，管得严着呢。哪怕产品里中国稀土成分只占0.1%，也得上许可。说白了，这是对美国一轮轮 制裁的回击，从芯片到AI，全链条都卡着中国，美国自己也得掂量掂量。 其实，这反制来得不是没道理。早在2018年贸易战开打，美国就对500亿中国商品下手，中国对等反制大豆和汽车。2019年华为被实体清单，2022年芯片法 案砸520亿补贴本土，可上游材料还是绕不开中国。 2024年5月，美国又调高电动车关税到100%，中 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

说得明白，38万亿债务压着，美国总统想要降息来喘口气，特朗普先是把对华关税当作杠杆，后来又突 然放软，这里有时间线和来龙去脉，别急着下结论，接着往下看会更清楚。 就说清楚，2018年那会儿特朗普把关税当武器，2020年疫情搅局，到了2022—2023年通胀飙升，美联储 开始猛加息，特朗普在2024年前后又喊着要降息，这一连串的操作把美国内部和外部关系都搅得一团 糟。 2018年特朗普挥起关税大棒，对华加征高额关税，想靠贸易战压中国，让制造业回流美国； 关税一来，国内物价跟着往上窜，2022年通胀率冲到高位，美联储从2022年开始连续加息，目标是把通 胀钳住； 美国债台高筑，官方数据说到现在大约有38万亿美元债务，单靠利息就每年负担巨大，特朗普在2024年 前后公开要求美联储降息，把利息负担降下来； 特朗普一边骂美联储、威胁换人，一边又在外交上突然放软，对中国态度从强硬到缓和转得很快，这转 变在2023—2024年尤为明显； 美国企业受关税和贸易摩擦影响重大，苹果、特斯拉等对华市场依赖明显，关税让成本上涨、利润受挤 压，于是企业开始向政府施压要求放宽限制； 制造业想回流是句好听的口号，但现实很赤裸，美国工人工资 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic impact of the U.S. tariff policy, particularly the increase to 125%, which has led to significant price hikes for basic goods, costing American households an additional $2,400 annually [3][5][6] - The U.S. isolation strategy has backfired, as attempts to decouple from global supply chains have resulted in negative consequences for the U.S. economy, while China has shown resilience and adaptability [5][6][10] - By 2025, China's foreign trade has grown by 4%, with exports to Africa increasing by 56.4%, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics and a more diversified trade network [13][15] Group 2 - Despite high tariffs, China's response has evolved from passive defense to proactive strategies, utilizing key resources like rare earths and semiconductors to counter U.S. actions [16][18] - The capital markets reflect a growing recognition of China's integral role in the global economy, with companies like Tesla and Volkswagen continuing to invest in China despite geopolitical tensions [18][19] - The article emphasizes that the international order is shifting towards a more complex interdependence, where the costs of excluding China from global supply chains are becoming increasingly untenable for the U.S. [21][24][27]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on goods from major trading partners, including China, affecting shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding, which violates WTO rules and disrupts the U.S.-China maritime agreement [1] - This policy has led to a more than 30% increase in bilateral trade costs, reflecting a typical unilateralism aimed at reshaping global supply chains and promoting manufacturing return to the U.S. [1] - China responded swiftly by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. imports and implementing export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, emphasizing national security and international non-proliferation responsibilities [4] Group 2 - The U.S. and China engaged in high-level economic talks in Geneva, agreeing to gradually reduce tariffs within 90 days and temporarily suspend some non-tariff countermeasures, showcasing a willingness to dialogue [6] - However, the U.S. quickly violated the agreement by suspending the supply of LEAP-1C engines needed for China's C919 aircraft, tightening restrictions on chip and design software exports, which impacts China's aviation supply chain [6][8] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to an 8.1% year-on-year decline in bilateral trade, while China's export structure has improved, with high-tech products now accounting for 35% of exports [10] Group 3 - Rare earth elements are crucial for high-tech industries, with China controlling 60% of global extraction and 90% of refining, particularly dominating the heavy rare earth sector at 99% [12] - U.S. automakers have already reduced production by 20% due to supply disruptions, with General Motors and Ford warning of potential factory relocations to China if the situation does not improve [12] - China's export control measures are efficient, with a tiered approval system for exports, ensuring that any product containing over 0.1% Chinese rare earths requires a license, particularly for military applications [15] Group 4 - The U.S. military faces significant challenges, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 920 pounds of rare earths, and Virginia-class submarines needing over 9,000 pounds, leading to increased production costs and delays [17] - The Pentagon's reserves are only sufficient for 18 months, and development of the F-47 sixth-generation fighter has been paused due to supply issues [17] - In contrast, China's military prioritizes domestic supply, achieving an 85% recovery rate of rare earths at one-third of the cost compared to the U.S., highlighting the asymmetrical nature of the ongoing competition [17]

Group 1: Tariff Increase and Industry Impact - The U.S. government is considering raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25%, with public commentary extended to September 5 [1] - The technology and chemical industries are shocked by the proposed tariff increase, with the Information Technology Industry Council calling it "irresponsible and counterproductive" [2] - The American Retail Federation expressed anger, stating that the new tariffs are a reckless bet on a trade policy that is already causing harm [2] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Struggles - The trade war has led to a significant decrease in demand for U.S. meat products, resulting in a backlog of nearly 1.2 billion kilograms of meat in warehouses [2] - U.S. soybean prices have dropped approximately 15% due to trade concerns, impacting farmers' profits by 8% to 10% [2] - Goldman Sachs warned that the trade war could reduce earnings for several U.S. companies by 15% due to decreased export revenues and increased costs [2] Group 3: Consumer Impact and Price Increases - Tariffs are expected to raise costs for manufacturers, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers, leading to increased prices for various goods [4] - Companies like Polaris Industries have already raised prices to offset anticipated tariff costs, indicating a direct impact on consumer prices [5] - Analysts predict that the trade conflict could lead to a loss of 250,000 jobs and an average increase of $210 in expenses for American households [5] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Political Implications - Concerns are growing about the potential economic slowdown due to the trade war, which could pose a political challenge for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections [6][7] - Predictions indicate that a 10% increase in tariffs could result in a 2.5% decrease in U.S. GDP over three years, with a full-blown trade war potentially doubling this impact [7] - The ongoing trade tensions are disrupting global supply chains and increasing uncertainty, which could push the economy towards recession [7][8]

运往美国俄亥俄州储藏设施的美国大豆（reuters） "绝对是异常事态"，美国大豆出口协会CEO在接受采访时承认，中国对美国大豆的采购重启仍停滞。10 月底的中美首脑会谈中就恢复出货达成一致，并启动部分出口，但仍未出现大量采购的迹象。背景是中 国的替代采购…… 美国对中国的大豆出口依然停滞不前。大豆在作为鸡和猪饲料的粮食采购中属于重要品类之一。作为世 界最大消费国的中国在贸易战中一直通过抵制向美国特朗普政府施压。虽然在10月底的中美首脑会谈中 就恢复出货达成一致，并启动部分出口，但仍未出现大量采购的迹象，美国的农业相关人士对此忧心忡 忡。 美国农业相关人士发出担忧的声音 "绝对是异常事态"，美国大豆出口协会（USSEC）首席执行官（CEO）吉姆·萨特（Jim Sutter）在接受 日本经济新闻的独家采访时承认，中国对美国大豆的采购重启仍在停滞。他表示"想耐心等待"中国方面 的应对。 "（美国的）贸易商和农民等开始担心美国产大豆的采购能否如约进行"，美国中西部伊利诺伊州的谷物 期货交易商Allendale的首席策略师Rich Nelson如此指出。 中国通过抵制击中了"美国农民"这一特朗普政府的要害，在贸易战中 ...

中美贸易摩擦进入2025年，已从单纯关税博弈演变为全球供应链的全面重塑。年初，美国政府签署行政 令，对中国商品加征10%额外关税，到4月总税率攀升至54%，涵盖电子元件、机械设备和汽车零部 件。中国则以对等措施回应，5月启动对美进口商品关税调整，重点针对农产品和能源。 10月30日，两国领导人在釜山会晤，达成涵盖关税调整、出口管制和农产品采购的协议，美国同意降低 部分电子产品税率至30%，中国承诺增加能源进口20万吨。目前，协议执行平稳，首批大豆船货抵达中 国港口，价格稳定在每吨420美元左右。这种进展显示，贸易摩擦虽未彻底结束，但已从对抗转向有限 缓和。 从经济数据看，美国的关税策略并未如预期般重振制造业。2025年上半年，美国对华出口下降25%，大 豆和能源类产品积压严重，中西部农场库存创历史新高。通胀率升至4.5%，消费者支出增速放缓0.8个 百分点。 相比之下，中国出口结构优化，对"一带一路"沿线国家贸易额同比增长15%，高科技产品占比升至 28%。欧洲国家对美实施25%农产品反制关税，导致美国鸡肉出口受阻，中西部"蛋荒"现象频发。 东南亚虽承接部分转移订单，但物流延误和质量不稳问题突出，实际成本仅降 ...

特朗普一直是以大话著称，但他在2025年提出的领土扩张言论，真是让全世界都感到震惊。2024年年底，当他刚刚赢得总统选举时，就开始放话，要把加拿 大并入美国，变成美国的第51个州，还打算夺回巴拿马运河的控制权，并且计划购买格陵兰岛。2025年1月7日，特朗普在海湖庄园举行的记者会上，公开表 示不排除通过军事或经济手段来实现这些目标，并且轻描淡写地提到，自己可能会把墨西哥湾改名为美国湾。 从2024年12月起，特朗普开始抱怨加拿大的关税太高，直言不讳地说：你们交那么高的税，干脆合并算了，直接变成美国的第51州，这样一切就省事了。他 不断重复这一说法，特别是在2025年贸易战最为激烈时，新的加拿大总理卡尼上台后，特朗普直接把25%的关税提高了。加拿大则进行了激烈反击，特朗普 便再次提出51州的说法作为反制手段。当时，加拿大全国范围内的抵制活动愈演愈烈，甚至连原本冬天常去佛罗里达度假的雪鸟老人也开始避免去美国。 虽然特鲁多已经卸任，但根据加拿大全国的民意调查，90%的加拿大人表示，宁愿继续缴纳高额税费，也不愿意成为美国的一部分。时至今日，加拿大依然 是那个加拿大，边界处仍然严格征收关税，特朗普的关税威胁依然存在，但 ...

中美关税战暂告一段落，美国总统特朗普似乎仍未平息心中不甘，竟公然宣称是美国"掏钱养活了中国解放军"，并指示财政部长致电中方，催促其"报答恩 情"。 此前，中美双方就关税问题达成一年休战共识，然而好景不长，美方很快又故态复萌。 特朗普的这番言论，看似荒诞不经，实则意在向美国国内传递信息：他挑起贸易战的根本目的是为了遏制解放军的发展，以确保美军不被超越，从而凸显自 己是保护美国安全的首功之臣。同时，他也试图以此为筹码，迫使中国高价购买美国农产品。 事实上，感到焦虑的并非特朗普一人。近日，美国海军高层考德尔在看到中国海军舰艇"下饺子"般列装，尤其是福建舰的服役以及四川舰的海试进展，表现 出了极大的震撼。他直言四川舰"又大又强"，并表示美军将密切关注其后续动向。 美国方面的一系列言论和举动，在某种程度上，可以说是为自身发展非对称作战能力进行舆论铺垫，同时也为日后可能撕毁关税承诺埋下伏笔。因此，中国 方面有必要保持高度警惕。 首先，美国政府批准了特朗普上任以来首批对台军售，这不仅违背了美国领导人关于台湾问题的承诺，更是对中国的又一次背信弃义。台湾问题作为中美关 系中的敏感红线，美方的此番举动无疑极大动摇了来之不易的中美 ...