2月8日，日本第51届众议院选举落下帷幕。高市早苗带领下的执政联盟以压倒性优势拿下了超过三分之 二的议席，不仅守住了"日本首位女首相"的相位，更开启了自民党内的"高市一强"时代。高市早苗为何 能赢得这场选举？这场充满了戏剧张力的选举，将给日本经济、外交带来什么样的深远影响？对此，西 北大学国际战略研究中心主任、央视特约评论员王晋分析称，高市早苗赢得选举后，日本未来或将面临 通货膨胀和财政赤字等经济风险，还将刺激日本右翼团体重新崛起，引发周边国家和地区进一步担忧。 审核 康乐群 张建成 编辑：张娟 起点新闻记者 李卓然 ...

中新网曼谷2月12日电 (李映民 刘宇博)泰国开泰研究中心12日发布报告称，2026年泰国仍存在通货紧缩 风险。在国内需求放缓、进口商品增加导致市场竞争加剧的背景下，居民消费价格指数篮子中价格下跌 商品的比例持续扩大。 报告指出，目前泰国尚未明显进入通货紧缩状态，而是处于低通胀、通缩压力上升阶段，主要由于核心 通货膨胀率仍为正值，民间消费保持增长。 官方数据显示，2026年1月泰国通货膨胀率为-0.66%，已连续第十个月为负，且较上月的-0.28%进一步 扩大。 尽管面临能源价格下行带来的供应侧压力，开泰研究中心仍维持2026年全年通货膨胀率0.4%的预测。 该机构认为，部分生鲜食品价格趋升，加之核心通胀率预计维持正值，将对整体物价形成支撑。预计自 2026年第二季度起，通胀率有望回升至正值区间，原因包括去年同期基数较低，以及厄尔尼诺现象可能 导致部分生鲜食品减产，推动价格回升。 报告同时指出，2026年全年通胀率虽将保持正增长，但增速料放缓，这一趋势已在2025年第四季度核心 通胀率回落中显现。食品和饮料类商品价格仍将上涨，但涨幅预计收窄，反映出居民购买力仍偏弱、缺 乏额外消费刺激措施。同时，旅游业逐步复苏 ...

Economic Data and Labor Market - The January non-farm payrolls figure showed a headline number of 130,000, which is the strongest growth in over a year and more than double the Dow Jones prediction of 55,000 [2] - Job creation for the previous year was revised down to just over 15,000 per month, with the last six months resulting in a net loss of 1,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, contrary to expectations of holding at 4.4%, which may shift focus back to inflation concerns [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Expectations for a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting have decreased, with the CME's Fed Watch tool indicating a 1 in 20 chance of a rate reduction, down from a 1 in 5 chance [3] - Forecasts suggest no rate cuts until mid-year, with potential cuts of 50 basis points as inflation decreases [4] - There is a belief that the data will support the Fed chair in persuading the committee to implement additional cuts later in the year [6][7] Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office has indicated that the deficit is projected to worsen through 2036, raising concerns about fiscal policy [10] - The focus on fiscal issues is significant as central banks have reduced their bond holdings, leading to scrutiny of fiscal management [11] - The Fed's balance sheet dynamics are discussed, with implications for how it may manage its portfolio in relation to economic growth [12][13]

All right, folks. Right here on set, uh, switching gears slightly. Joining us, Steve Moran, Steve Myin, I beg your pardon, Federal Reserve Governor and, uh, friend.Welcome, Steve. Good to see you. >> Good to see you.Thanks for having me. >> Um, so today's jobs numbers, they are very good numbers. I guess my question is to the extent you can talk to it, does that mean you can't lower interest rates because the economy showed good because it's 4.3% unemployment or the jobs numbers are good.Does that mean you ...

2026.02. 12 本文字数：2184，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 樊志菁 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，1月全美就业增长意外加速。劳动力市场企稳的迹象，可能让美联 储在一段时间内维持利率不变，同时让政策制定者继续观察通胀走势。不少市场观点也认为，考虑到 特朗普政府的政策，不要将数据视为就业形势的实质性转变。 新增岗位集中趋势 制造业就业小幅反弹，但自特朗普重返白宫以来已累计减少逾8万个岗位。零售、公用事业、休闲与 酒店业有小幅就业增长。 金融行业再减2.2万人。运输仓储、信息、采矿与伐木行业出现就业流失。与此同时，联邦政府就业 减少3.4万人，原因是部分2025年接受延迟辞职的员工正式退出。自2024年10月触顶以来，联邦政 府就业已累计减少32.7万人。 2026年1月非农新增分项 （图源：美国劳工统计局） 美国劳工统计局表示，1月非农就业人数增加13万人，为近13个月最大增速，去年12月数据经下修 后为新增4.8万人。 分项来看，当月医疗保健行业新增8.2万人，为2020年7月以来最大增幅，这一增幅远高于2025年月 均3.3万人的水平。社会援助行业新增4.2万人。建筑业新增3.3万人 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

Weak 10-Year Auction Raises Yields ModestlyCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Feb. 11, 2026: Dow Snaps 3-Day Record Streak]Last Updated:---5 hours ago# Weak 10-Year Auction Raises Yields ModestlyBy[Karishma Vanjani]The market reacted modestly this afternoon to a weak 10-year auction.An auction of 10-year notes saw a result of 4.177%, which was higher than the yield in the pre-auction, indicating weak demand. Higher yields mean investors demanded lower prices.Investors may be worried about Friday's inflation r ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production is more robust than in previous years before the Spring Festival, but there are differences in various production indicators; the improvement trend of the new - house sales volume in 30 cities has weakened; the decline of pig prices has widened; and oil prices have risen [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Production is More Robust than in Previous Years before the Spring Festival 3.1.1 Production - **Power plant daily consumption shows seasonal decline**: On February 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 792,000 tons, a 2.8% decrease from February 3; on February 8, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.03 million tons, an 8.6% decrease from January 30 [4][11]. - **Blast furnace operating rate rises before the festival**: On February 6, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.6%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from January 30; the capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.3%, a 2.5 - percentage - point increase [4][16]. - **Tire operating rate is more robust than in previous Spring Festivals**: On February 5, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 60.7%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 29; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 72.8%, a 2.1 - percentage - point decrease. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region shows a seasonal decline [4][18]. 3.1.2 Demand - **The improvement trend of new - house sales volume in 30 cities weakens**: From February 1 - 10, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 185,000 square meters, a 27.3% increase from January, a 116.3% increase from February last year, and a 3.2% increase from February 2024 [4][23]. - **The retail growth of the auto market strengthens**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25]. - **Most steel prices decline**: On February 10, compared with February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil were flat, down 1.3%, down 0.6%, and down 0.1% respectively [4][31]. - **The decline of cement prices slows down before the festival**: On February 10, the national cement price index decreased by 0.3% compared with February 3 [4][32]. - **Glass prices fluctuate within a narrow range**: On February 10, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,079 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from February 3 [4][38]. - **The decline of the container shipping freight rate index slows down**: On February 6, the CCFI index decreased by 4.5% compared with January 30, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.8% [4][42]. 3.2 Inflation: The Decline of Pig Prices Widens 3.2.1 CPI - **The decline of pig prices widens**: On February 10, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from February 3 [4][47]. - **The agricultural product price index declines moderately**: On February 10, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with February 3 [4][53]. 3.2.2 PPI - **Oil prices rise**: On February 10, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $72.4 and $64.0 per barrel respectively, a 3.6% and 1.2% increase from February 3 [4][55]. - **Copper and aluminum prices decline**: On February 10, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.0% and 0.7% respectively compared with February 3 [4][59]. - **The domestic commodity index turns to decline month - on - month**: On February 10, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.01% compared with February 3, and the CRB index decreased by 0.4% [4][59].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until the end of Powell's term in May, but a rate cut is anticipated in June, raising concerns about the potential for overly loose policies under Kevin Warsh's leadership [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Over 70% of economists are worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve will be significantly compromised after Powell's departure [1][4]. - Approximately 75 out of 101 economists predict that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting next month, an increase from 58% in the previous month [5][6]. - Nearly 60% of economists believe that interest rates will drop to the range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with rate cuts most likely occurring in June [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Predictions - The median forecast indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate for this year is expected to be between 2% and 2.4%, higher than the Fed's estimate of 1.8% for non-inflationary growth [2][5]. - Predictions show that the annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 will slow to 2.9%, down from 4.4% in the third quarter [2][5]. - The average inflation level for this year is expected to be significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][5]. Group 3: Kevin Warsh's Policy Implications - Almost all economists (49 out of 53) believe that Warsh is more likely to implement overly loose rather than tight policies [3][7]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Warsh will push for one or two rate cuts based on economic developments or if he will advocate for more substantial cuts [3][7]. - Despite some predictions indicating that the unemployment rate will stabilize around 4.5%, this does not support the necessity for multiple rate cuts [8].

据蒙古国家统计局数据，2026年1月蒙古居民消费价格同比上涨7.5%，环比上涨1.1%。其中，食品价格 上涨12.4%，服务价格上涨8.9%，商品价格上涨7%，非食品价格上涨5.6%。按区域看，中部地区食品 价格上涨13.8%、商品价格上涨9.4%，西部地区食品价格上涨11.4%，乌兰巴托市服务价格上涨10%。 分类看，教育服务价格上涨12.8%，食品、饮料等价格上涨12.6%（非酒精类饮品上涨8.8%），宾馆、 餐饮和住宿服务价格上涨8.5%，服装、布类和鞋类价格上涨6.6%，医药、疫苗和医疗服务价格上涨 6.5%，娱乐、休闲和文化类商品价格上涨6.1%，家具及家具用品价格上涨5.3%，住房、水、电、燃气 和其他燃料价格上涨4.3%。 ...