新华财经纽约2月11日电（记者徐静） 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年4月黄金期价 11日上涨59.9美元，收于每盎司5107.8美元，涨幅为1.19%。 尽管美国非农就业报告远超预期，提振了美元指数和美国国债收益率，但贵金属市场守住了隔夜大部分 涨幅。市场分析认为，在地缘政治局势依然活跃的背景下，避险需求仍占据主导地位。 数据发布后美元走强，市场预计美联储3月份降息的可能性下降至15%之下。 不过贵金属价格仅在数据公布后出现小幅跳水，随后便收复多数跌幅。分析人士认为，当天黄金和白银 市场价格走势表明，避险需求、囤积行为以及央行购买黄金等基本供需因素依然稳固。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨350.5美分，收于每盎司84.085美元，涨幅为4.35%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 具体来看，美国劳工部11日公布的数据显示，1月份美国非农就业人数增加13万人，显著高于市场共识 预期的7万人和前月的5万人。数据还显示，1月份失业率为4.3%，略低于前月的4.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.53% to $5107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 4.60% to $84.08 per ounce [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in silver prices to expectations of supply shortages and strong investment demand, alongside delayed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and inflation concerns enhancing the anti-inflation properties of precious metals [1] - The U.S. labor market showed strength with a non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Kansas City Fed President indicated that inflation remains above target levels, suggesting a need to maintain a "slightly restrictive" interest rate stance, leading traders to push back their bets on Fed rate cuts from June to July [1] - Recent market behavior showed a notable inverse volatility in the gold and silver markets, with individual investors strongly buying during price declines; data from "Vanda Research" indicated a net inflow of approximately $4.3 billion into silver tracking index funds over just six trading days [1] - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver demand will remain stable in 2026, with total supply expected to grow by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, marking a ten-year high, yet the silver market is projected to experience structural shortages for the sixth consecutive year [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of the U.S. labor market as indicated by the January non-farm payroll data, which exceeded market expectations and impacted market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3] - The January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly above the market expectation of 70,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% [3] - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees rose by $0.15 to $37.17, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, also surpassing market expectations [3] Group 2 - The strong non-farm payroll data led to a rapid decline in the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March dropping from 19.6% to 6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94% [3] - Following the release of the non-farm data, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 50,121.40 points, down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.16% [4] - Concerns regarding the AI industry and the cooling of rate cut expectations contributed to the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, with technology stocks particularly affected [4] Group 3 - In contrast to the pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, precious metals such as gold and silver saw a V-shaped reversal, with gold prices rising from a low of $5,020.07 per ounce to $5,089.36 per ounce [5] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to safe-haven demand amid ongoing AI industry concerns and a retreat in the U.S. dollar, despite the cooling rate cut expectations [5] - The oil market exhibited a volatile pattern, with Brent crude oil reaching nearly $70 per barrel before retreating due to global demand concerns and a strengthening dollar, ultimately closing at $69.40 per barrel [5] Group 4 - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. CPI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials to further assess the direction of monetary policy, while ongoing dynamics in the AI industry and geopolitical issues in the Middle East continue to influence market sentiment [6] - The sustained pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, the momentum of gold and silver prices, and the potential for oil prices to break out of their current volatility remain to be validated by future data and events [6]

近期国际黄金市场的剧烈波动，让不少投资者直呼揪心：从站上每盎司5600美元的历史新高，到单日创 下上世纪80年代以来最大跌幅，再到快速回弹至5000美元附近震荡，黄金价格在短时间内完成了一 轮"过山车"行情。但不同于其他资产暴跌后的持续低迷，黄金市场总能在急跌后快速修复，这背后并非 偶然，而是藏着多重不被轻易看见的隐形支撑。 笔者梳理市场脉络发现，这些支撑既源于扎根民间的消费习惯，也来自全球格局的底层变化，更离不开 市场结构和政策层面的理性护航，多重力量交织，才让黄金市场拥有了独有的抗跌性。 中国民间需求：刻在消费里的底层托底力量 在本轮黄金暴跌的过程中，国内市场出现了鲜明的"逢低买入"现象，深圳等核心金银交易市场依旧有买 家涌入，节前购金的热情并未因价格波动而消退，这股来自东方的消费力量，成为黄金市场最直接的隐 形支撑。而这一支撑的背后，是中国消费者对黄金独有的认知和长期形成的消费习惯。 从官方数据来看，2025年我国黄金消费量达950.096吨，其中金条及金币消费量504.238吨，同比增长 35.14%，首次超越黄金首饰消费量，标志着国内黄金消费结构迎来阶段性转变，投资者对黄金的配置 需求持续提升。 世 ...

今日周三(2月11日)亚盘时段，受周三美国非农就业报告及本周后续多项通胀数据即将公布的影响，贵 金属市场步入震荡整理期。当前，地缘政治局势虽持续紧张却未进一步激化，避险需求为贵金属筑牢支 撑，市场抛压有限。截至最新，4月黄金期货报价下滑19.6美元，价格定格在5060.2美元/盎司，市场正 静待关键数据指引。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 特朗普最近又给美联储"画饼"了——他提名的前理事凯文·沃什，在他嘴里简直是"经济加速器成精"： 只要沃什上台，美国经济增速能飙到15%!这数字有多离谱呢?市场预计今年美国GDP增速才2.4%，过去 五十年平均也就2.8%，特朗普这目标怕不是把"经济增速"和"超市促销折扣"搞混了?他还补刀说当年选 鲍威尔是"重大错误"，夸沃什"能力出众到发光"，只是没说清这15%是同比、环比还是"特朗普数学"里 的"我觉得能行"增速。 另一边，爱沙尼亚情报局给俄罗斯的"和平谈判"盖了个戳：纯纯剧本杀，目标是拖时间。俄方压根不想 真停火，核心KPI是恢复和美国全面外交关系——方便俄商业大佬直飞美国拿签证，顺便给间谍叔叔们 开"活动绿色通道"。哪怕现在还在乌克兰"打副本"，人家 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong support for silver prices due to robust supply-demand fundamentals and increased investment and hedging demand, leading to a recent rise in silver prices [1][2] - Analysts note that the silver market is experiencing a structural transformation in demand, particularly from industries like AI and semiconductors, which is expected to significantly boost silver demand [2] - The supply of primary silver is constrained, as it heavily relies on the production of other metals like copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult to expand output independently [2] Group 2 - Domestic silver-related enterprises are adopting various strategies to manage price volatility, including technological innovations and the use of derivatives [3] - The rising silver prices are creating challenges for downstream industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and silver jewelry, where increased procurement costs are compressing profit margins [3][4] - Downstream companies are addressing risks primarily through two methods: reducing silver usage via technological upgrades and utilizing financial derivatives for hedging against price fluctuations [3][4]

【国际黄金，白银走势分析】 2月10日，黄金消息面解析：周一（2月9日）美盘时段，现货黄金震荡上涨，现交投于每盎司5040美元 附近，日内涨幅约0.7%，此前一度触及5046美元/盎司附近。面对俄乌冲突日益升级的远程打击对抗， 乌克兰总统泽连斯基正极力争取国际支持，避免战火造成的破坏被国际社会"习惯化"。在一周内遭受超 3300枚各类弹药袭击后，他警告道："世界不能对俄罗斯的袭击视而不见。当没有全球性回应时，袭击 会变得更加频繁且愈发残酷。"俄乌冲突进入远程对攻与基础设施打击的新阶段，将主要通过强化避险 需求、制造能源供应不确定性以及引发地缘风险溢价三大渠道，对黄金价格构成显著且持续的上行支 撑。 黄金技术面分析：周一早盘黄金高开，最高在5045附近，进一步的扩大了上周4700布局的多单利润，跟 上周提示的在4400支撑布局多单一样，本周也需要关注5100是否破位，上周讲过，5100之下，黄金会是 弱势震荡，有来回往返的可能性，但一旦站稳5100．黄金的多头趋势开启，上涨就相待轻松，可以继续 看5350从技术面来看，日线的上涨趋势比较明显，在第二波初级4650后黄金大涨，日线收阳，破位布林 中轨，那么接下来， ...

转自：新华财经 宝城期货表示，美元走弱和对美联储降息的预期回暖是推动金价反弹的直接动力。市场认为，无论谁执 掌美联储，美国维持相对宽松货币环境的长期倾向可能难以根本扭转，这为金价提供了深层支撑。地缘 政治方面，美伊会谈降低了突发军事冲突的风险，但仍维持了紧张局势，这使得黄金的避险需求从脉冲 式驱动转变为更持久的支撑。中长期看涨黄金的逻辑（如全球央行购金、去美元化）并未改变，但短期 市场可能仍处于高波动盘整期，5000美元成为黄金新的多空博弈焦点。临近春节假期，国内提保叠加海 外波动，节前资金驱动或减弱。 东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨表现偏强，得益于美元指数的大幅走弱。市场关注伊朗局势进展，仍然存 在一定避险情绪，美国1月非农就业报告也即将公布，目前市场对3月降息预期约为20%，后续经济数据 关注度增加，短期货币政策缺乏增量利多。国内春节假期将至，资金节前减仓，预计贵金属整体走势震 荡。 银河期货表示，近日市场情绪回暖，美股现V字反弹，美元走弱，金银价格相应从此前的悲观情绪中逐 步恢复并反弹。另外，中国央行再度增加黄金储备，美国财长贝森特称此前金价的下跌主要由投机性抛 售驱动，以及市场传言国内商业银行可能减少对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rebound, with gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and a declining dollar index [1] Group 1: Gold Market - As of February 9, 2026 April gold futures rose by $95.6, closing at $5,084.2 per ounce, marking a 1.92% increase [1] - The demand for precious metals is supported by ongoing global issues, despite the absence of major geopolitical hotspots [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.84% to 96.814, contributing to the favorable conditions for gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Recent volatility in the precious metals market has led to a cooling of speculative sentiment, with the CFTC reporting a significant reduction in long positions [1] - Hedge funds and large speculators reduced their net long positions by 23% to 93,438 contracts, the lowest level since October 2025 [1] Group 3: Silver Market - March silver futures increased by 552.5 cents, closing at $83.050 per ounce, reflecting a 7.13% rise [1]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 短期内国债期货延续震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。由于最新宏观经济指标有所走弱，有效 需求不足的问题显现，"弱现实"压力上升，未来降息预期升温。另外临近 长假，流动性趋紧，加上避险需求提升国债配置需求，国债期货震荡偏强。 不过短期内美联储降息预期放缓，加上央行货币宽松政策以结构性降息为 主，短期内全面降息的必要性不强，国债期货上行空间有限。总的来说， 短期内国债期货延续震荡整理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业 ...