据环球时报报道，韩国与美国就关税问题近日在韩国济州岛展开为期3天的协商。据韩国纽西斯通讯社日前报 道，韩国产业通商资源部长官安德根定于16日与美国贸易代表格里尔在时隔3周后再次会面。此次会谈能否形成 韩美关税谈判的具体轮廓备受关注。 特朗普（资料图） 韩联社此前指出，美国对韩国进口商品的关税税率（25%）高于日本（24%）和欧盟（20%），将导致韩国在对 美出口竞争中处于不利地位。 韩国代行总统职权的国务总理韩德洙韩德洙表示，全球关税战已成现实，当前经济形势极为严峻，政府必须全力 以赴，克服当前的贸易危机。韩德洙指示产业通商资源部长官安德根携手韩企就美方对等关税措施的具体内容进 行分析，积极与美方开展沟通协商，为汽车等受影响较大的行业和企业制定扶持政策。 多年来，韩国对美出口不断增长，2024年出口总额已达1278亿美元，对美贸易顺差更创下557亿美元的历史新 高。然而，这一成就并未为韩国赢得贸易上的优待，反而成为特朗普"秋后算账"的借口。特朗普高举"对等关 税"大旗，本质上并非追求真正的贸易平衡，而是一次赤裸裸的经济霸凌。在他眼中，任何拥有顺差的国家，都 是"薅美国羊毛"的掠夺者。而韩国，恰恰是他眼中"过于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of East Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, against the backdrop of optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and the weakening of the US dollar [1][2][5]. Currency Performance - During the May 1 holiday, East Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, and South Korean Won, collectively appreciated, with the New Taiwan Dollar rising over 9% in two trading days [1]. - The offshore Renminbi also showed strength, surpassing the 7.19 mark for the first time since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Context - The strengthening of East Asian currencies is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar and the trade surpluses maintained by economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which have accumulated significant dollar assets [2][5]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with the index falling below 100 due to concerns over "stagflation" risks and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [2][3]. US Economic Indicators - The US GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of -0.3%, which was below market expectations, indicating economic slowdown [2][4]. - Consumer confidence in the US has also dropped, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [3]. Investment Trends - Private investment in the US showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP, largely driven by inventory accumulation [3][4]. - However, as the "reciprocal tariffs" take effect, the support from inventory for GDP is expected to weaken in the second quarter [3]. Trade Deficits - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with significant deficits against East Asian countries, particularly China, Mexico, and Vietnam [6]. - Taiwan's trade surplus is bolstered by its competitive advantages in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, which constitute a large portion of its exports [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the US economy is likely to slow down but not enter a recession, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate changes [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the Renminbi remains positive due to strong domestic policies and economic resilience, while the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amid favorable conditions [16].

Economic Indicators - In April, industrial added value year-on-year was 6.1%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from March, indicating a slowdown in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in April grew by 3.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from March, with infrastructure investment declining by 3 percentage points to 9.6%[7] - Real estate investment in April saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, a slight decline of 1.3 percentage points from March, with new construction area down by 22.1%[11] Consumer and Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a relatively high level[13] - Social financing in April grew by 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by government bond issuance[16] - The A-share market has shifted from initial panic over economic slowdown to a focus on the extent of economic deceleration, with confidence in the economy improving for the second half of the year[20] Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to a noticeable decline in total demand, with April's PPI showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%[5] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have eased expectations regarding tariffs, suggesting a potential moderation in the negative impact on the real economy[5] - The central bank's likelihood of significantly tightening monetary policy appears limited due to greater downward pressure on the economy compared to earlier in the year[22]

Core Viewpoint - A South Korean government delegation will visit the U.S. on May 20 to engage in technical discussions regarding tariffs, particularly focusing on "reciprocal tariffs" and reductions on steel, automotive, and semiconductor tariffs, ahead of the presidential election in South Korea on June 3 [1] Group 1: Delegation Details - The delegation is led by Chang Sung-ki, the head of the Trade Policy Bureau at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy [1] - This meeting is expected to be the last face-to-face working consultation between South Korea and the U.S. before the upcoming presidential election [1] Group 2: Discussion Topics - The discussions will cover six major topics: trade balance, non-tariff measures, economic security, digital trade, origin of goods, and business considerations [1] - The previously agreed "July comprehensive agreement" will be pursued by the next South Korean government [1]

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特当地时间5月18日表示，如果各国在90天的暂停期内未能达成贸易协议，关 税税率将很快恢复到"对等"水平。贝森特称，特朗普已通知各国，如果不"真诚"谈判，关税将回到4月2 日的水平。"贝森特表示，美国最关注的是与18个"重要"贸易伙伴巩固贸易关系。但他没有透露关税何 时会恢复到"对等"税率。特朗普此前曾表示，各国达成贸易协议的时间所剩无几。 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]

Group 1 - The current U.S.-China trade negotiations have resulted in a significant reduction of bilateral tariffs, exceeding many observers' expectations, but structural issues remain unresolved [2][3] - The historical context of the U.S.-Japan trade conflict in the 1980s provides insights into the current U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting key differences such as Japan's alliance with the U.S. and China's greater strategic independence [3][4] - The "Plaza Accord" in 1985 was a pivotal moment in the U.S.-Japan trade war, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen, which had long-term negative effects on Japan's export-driven economy [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing deep structural economic issues, including income distribution imbalances, which cannot be resolved merely through trade wars or elections [4][5] - The effectiveness of the U.S. tariff strategy is questioned, as it may not be sustainable due to inherent economic contradictions and the adaptability of other countries to U.S. trade policies [5][6] - Japan's current trade strategy involves a combination of delaying negotiations and maintaining a firm stance on key issues, while also seeking to show goodwill through increased investments in the U.S. [7] Group 3 - Cooperation among countries affected by U.S. tariffs, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, is limited but possible, as nations seek to navigate the comprehensive trade pressures from the U.S. [7] - Japan is actively working to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to include more economies, aiming to create a stable trade framework outside of U.S. influence [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU, focusing on tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities, highlighting the complexities and challenges in reaching an agreement [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The US and EU have exchanged negotiation documents covering tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities, with EU officials urging caution against US pressure for quick resolutions [1]. - The EU is wary of US attempts to use tariffs to force changes in its digital tax and non-tariff trade barriers, indicating that such pressure may be ineffective [2]. US-UK Trade Agreement - The recent US-UK trade agreement is not seen as a template for EU negotiations, as EU officials reject the retention of a 10% tariff that was part of the US-UK deal [4][5]. - EU trade officials express dissatisfaction with the US-UK agreement and indicate potential retaliatory measures if the US maintains its tariff stance [4]. EU's Position and Strategy - EU officials are considering their options regarding US tariffs, weighing the possibility of retaliatory tariffs against the need to minimize economic losses [6][8]. - The EU has not yet implemented significant retaliatory measures but continues to threaten increased tariffs as a means of negotiation [8]. Technical Standards and Regulatory Issues - The article highlights the longstanding difficulties in reconciling US and EU technical standards, which complicate trade negotiations beyond tariff discussions [8][9]. - EU officials assert that they will not compromise on their regulatory autonomy, particularly regarding digital services and value-added tax [10]. Potential Retaliation Measures - The EU is preparing a package of retaliatory measures worth €95 billion, targeting US exports such as aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, should negotiations fail [10][11]. - Ongoing discussions among EU member states regarding which US products to include in the retaliation list indicate a lack of consensus, with some countries seeking exemptions for specific products [12]. Member States' Unity and Challenges - While EU member states currently support the EU Commission's trade negotiation strategy, this unity may be tested as the details of the agreement emerge [12]. - The final stance of the EU will depend on whether the negotiations yield substantial tariff reductions, with some member states potentially favoring a more conciliatory approach to avoid further losses [12].

据越南工贸部17日消息，在16日亚太经合组织（APEC）第三十一届贸易部长会议闭幕后，越南工贸部部长阮鸿延与美国贸易代表格里尔在韩国济州就"对 等贸易协定"进行了首次线下部长级磋商。 这是自越美4月23日启动贸易谈判后，两国谈判代表首次线下会面。按照越方发布的声明，此次谈判"本着坦诚、建设性、开放、灵活的精神进行"，体现 出越美两国致力于发展"稳定互利的经贸投资关系"。 5月7日，越南工贸部召开了与越南各大集团、总公司和重点企业的工作会议，评估这些企业未来对美国高技术、高附加值商品的进口需求，敦促其在6月 前推动签署更多采买合同，实现两国"贸易平衡"。8日，该部又召集了对美出口额较大的企业等，指示其致函美官员投诉"不合理"关税，并动员美国民众 和政界人士支持维持越南商品对美"正常"流通。 美国《纽约时报》5月4日刊文称，即便有90天的"对等关税"暂缓期，但越南工人仍生活在迷茫与恐惧之中。多名越南工厂的高管表示，工厂利润率微薄， 平均只有5%。目前一些工厂正加大产量，以便在暂缓期结束前完成发货。但一些美国客户已经开始取消订单或推迟新订单，有工厂已经开始裁员或冻结 招聘。 出于对本国经济的担忧，越南在应对本轮美国 ...

Core Points - The EU and the US have officially begun tariff negotiations after a period of stalemate, with discussions covering tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities [1] - The EU has rejected the 10% tariff agreement reached between the US and the UK, indicating it will not serve as a template for their negotiations [2][5] - The EU has proposed a retaliatory tariff plan amounting to €95 billion, targeting US products such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [2] Tariff Negotiation Focus and Stance - The US currently maintains a 25% additional tariff on EU steel, aluminum, and automobiles, with a recent announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" measure that raised tariffs on all European imports [3] - The EU has suspended €21 billion in retaliatory tariffs and reduced the "reciprocal tariff" from 20% to 10% until July 8 to facilitate negotiations [3] - EU officials emphasize the need for a calm approach and caution against yielding to US pressure for quick resolutions, with some US tariffs likely to remain, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [3] US Concerns and EU Response - The US has raised concerns regarding the EU's value-added tax, digital services regulations, food standards, and tariffs on certain US goods [4] - The EU has firmly stated it will not accept US demands to eliminate value-added tax or weaken digital regulations and taxation [5]