Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in liquidity due to external risk expectations and strong policy support for medium to long-term capital inflow [1] - The performance of A-shares is expected to improve as financing may stop its outflow process, creating new opportunities for inflow when new themes emerge [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A-shares is expected to decline compared to Q4 2024, while the net profit growth rate is expected to turn positive, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower but experienced upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points [2] - The focus of policies has shifted towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on the implementation of fiscal policies and consumption stimulus measures [2] - The central bank has signaled easing, and the increase in financing balance is expected to support market liquidity, with ETF funds continuing to flow in [2] Group 3 - The three major indices collectively rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [3] - A series of financial policies were released, signaling the start of new incremental policies aimed at enhancing economic resilience and stability [3] - More incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly in fiscal policy, domestic demand expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including ten monetary policy measures from the central bank and additional policies from financial regulatory bodies to support key sectors like real estate, technology innovation, and consumer spending [1][2][3]. Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank's measures include quantity-based, price-based, and structural monetary policy tools, with a total of ten initiatives designed to support the economy [1]. - Analysts estimate that the total incremental funds released could reach 2.5 trillion yuan, effectively countering the negative impacts of tariffs [6][9]. Economic Outlook - Analysts expect more incremental policies to be introduced, focusing on fiscal stimulus, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][12]. - The second quarter is seen as a critical period for policy implementation, with a focus on expanding domestic demand to maintain control over economic conditions [5][12]. Investment Directions - Three high-certainty investment directions have been identified: domestic consumption sectors, technology and military sectors under "self-control," and products with high export ratios to Europe [4][12]. - Specific sectors to watch include consumer goods, automotive, retail, and technology related to AI, robotics, and semiconductors [4]. Real Estate Market Support - The policies aim to stabilize the real estate market by ensuring financing for real estate companies and reducing costs for homebuyers through lower loan rates [9][10]. - The approval amount for real estate "white list" loans has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, indicating a strong push from financial institutions to support real estate financing [9]. Capital Market Stability - The government has introduced measures to stabilize the capital market, including enhancing collaboration between the central bank and financial institutions to support stock market investments [10][11]. - Long-term funds are expected to play a crucial role in maintaining market stability and improving pricing efficiency [11]. Focus on Technology and Consumer Services - The financial policies emphasize support for technology innovation and consumer services, with specific measures to lower reserve requirements for auto finance companies and increase credit support for service consumption [12][13]. - The government aims to enhance credit supply capabilities in targeted sectors, particularly in service consumption and technology innovation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for sustaining economic recovery and growth in China, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's directives and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Consumption - Consumption is identified as a crucial engine for economic growth and a key component of the domestic circulation system, directly reflecting the people's needs for a better life [2][3]. - The article stresses that enhancing consumption is vital for addressing the current economic challenges and achieving a growth target of around 5% [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement several initiatives to stimulate consumption, including upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, and fostering new consumption models [4][5][6][7]. - Specific measures include a significant increase in the budget for consumer subsidies, with the sales volume for old-for-new consumer goods projected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Consumption Growth - Key focus areas for boosting consumption include enhancing the quality of service offerings, promoting digital and green consumption, and innovating consumption scenarios to stimulate demand [6][7][8]. - The article outlines plans to support sectors such as elderly care and tourism, particularly targeting the silver economy [6][7]. Group 4: Political and Organizational Support - The article highlights the role of political leadership and organizational efforts in ensuring the effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies, emphasizing the integration of party-building and business operations [9][10]. - Continuous monitoring and supervision mechanisms are proposed to ensure the successful execution of consumption initiatives [10].

中证A500ETF龙头紧密跟踪中证A500指数，作为新一代大盘宽基指数代表，中证A500指数包括约50% 传统价值型行业和约50%新兴成长型行业，价值与成长均衡，是投资者布局A股市场优质工具。 数据显示，截至2025年4月30日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台(600519)、宁德 时代(300750)、中国平安(601318)、招商银行(600036)、长江电力(600900)、美的集团(000333)、比亚迪 (002594)、兴业银行(601166)、紫金矿业(601899)、东方财富(300059)，前十大权重股合计占比20.8%。 5月7日，国新办新闻发布会介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，中国人民银行将推出 包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项货币政策措施；金融监督管理总局近期将推出8项增量政策，涉及稳 楼市、小微企业融资、增量资金入市等；证监会打出一揽子稳市"组合拳"，全力巩固市场回稳向好势 头。 截至2025年5月8日 13:45，中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.46%，成分股中航成飞(302132)上涨15.81%，新 易盛(300502)上涨1 ...

面，要求持续做 事关消费帮扶、 扩大内需！广东 发布提振消费专 项行动实施方案 _南方+_南方 plus 提振消费是党中 央、国务院从全 局和战略高度部 署的重要任务。 近日，为贯彻落 实党中央、国务 院决策部署，全 方位扩大消费需 求，大力提振消 费，广东省人民 政府办公厅印发 《广东省提振消 费专项行动实施 方案》（下称 《方案》），提 出实施居民就业 增收促进行动、 居民保障支持行 动、服务消费提 质惠民行动、大 宗消费更新升级 行动、消费品质 提升行动、消费 环境改善提升行 动、限制措施清 理优化行动以及 加强政策支持保 障等8方面31项 内容，其中，在 完善配套措施方 好消费帮扶。 《方案》指出， 鼓励各级工会将 经费用于节日慰 问品、职工文体 健身和乡村疗休 养活动等消费领 域。持续做好消 费帮扶，继续开 展消费帮扶"新 春行动""金秋行 动"，举办工会 采购对接专场活 动和帮扶地区特 色农产品进机 关、进高校、进 社区展销活动。 据了解，近年 来，广东省发展 改革委积极落实 国家发展改革委 有关消费帮扶工 作部署，及早谋 划、迅速行动， 牵头落实开 展"消费帮扶新 春行动""消费帮 扶金秋行动" ...

国泰海通证券认为，1)股市贴现率进入向下走廊，继续看好中国A/H股市。2)货币先行明确支持经济立 场，股市风险溢价下降。3)推动资本市场改革，投资中国股市的机会成本下降，无风险利率降低。4)中 国股市升势远未结束，新兴科技是主线，金融周期是黑马。在外需压力验证的关键时间窗口，决策层再 度明确扭转经济形势与支持资本市场的决心，中国政策的连续性将稳定风险前景。 中原证券认为，周三A股市场高开低走、小幅震荡上行，盘中航天航空、农牧饲渔、交运设备以及贵金 属等行业表现较好；游戏、互联网服务、半导体以及文化传媒等行业表现较弱。政策重心转向扩大内 需，本月重点关注财政政策落地及消费刺激措施。央行释放宽松信号，汇金增持托底市场，融资余额有 望回升，ETF资金持续流入提供流动性支撑。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，市场或延续政策与业 绩双轮驱动的结构性行情，投资者需平衡防御与成长，聚焦业绩确定性高、政策催化明确的板块，同时 警惕外部风险引发的短期波动。 财信证券认为，周三大盘高开后震荡，多数个股冲高回落，反映出当前位置压力较大，不过周三全天市 场的承接动能相对较好，特别是尾盘阶段大盘再度上涨，反映出资金仍具备一定信心。短期内 ...

昨日国务院新闻办新闻发布会上提到的一系列政策措施，有望保障经济回升向好、股市震荡上行。 一揽子金融政策公布 国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 消费数据表现强劲 "五一"假期，消费和旅游市场再次迎来爆发式增长。据交通运输部统计，全社会跨区域人员流动量 146594万人次，日均29319万人次，较去年同期增长7.9%。据国家移民管理局统计，当期全国边检机关 共保障1089.6万人次中外人员出入境，日均217.9万人次，较去年同期增长28.7%，单日出入境通关最高 峰出现在5月3日，达229.7万人次。无论是国内游还是入境游，都显示了庞大的消费潜力。随着我国对 多国免签政策红利的持续释放，入境游也将成为消费市场的增长点。4月中共中央政治局会议提出"增强 消费对经济增长的拉动作用"，随着外部环境不确定性的加大，扩大内需成为长期战略之举，提振消费 将有力拉动经济回升。 综上所述，一揽子金融政策公布，中美贸易争端也有望缓和，均提振市场风险偏好，预计5月A股运行 重心震荡上移。（作者单位：银河期货） 金融监管总局局长李云泽表示，将推出 ...

Group 1 - The domestic financial system remains resilient despite external shocks, with indicators showing increasing impact on economic operations [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the strong resilience and adaptability of A-share listed companies, particularly those with high export ratios to the US [1] - The CSRC plans to enhance regulatory flexibility to support affected companies, including measures related to equity pledges, refinancing, and fundraising [1] Group 2 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is set to implement policies to support foreign trade development, focusing on financial relief and stabilizing exports [2] - A financing coordination mechanism will be expanded to all foreign trade enterprises, ensuring banks fulfill lending policies [2] - The administration aims to assist foreign trade companies in expanding domestic sales channels and will introduce specialized products to support domestic trade insurance [2] Group 3 - The establishment of a domestic trade insurance co-insurance mechanism is expected to enhance the insurance sector's capacity to support domestic trade [3] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are seen as effective responses to external shocks and long-term strategies for economic stability [3] - New structural monetary policy tools will support inclusive finance and consumption upgrades, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending initiative [3] Group 4 - Current economic cycles face bottlenecks and structural contradictions, indicating a need for more structural monetary policy tools to support domestic demand and drive economic transformation [4]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 防御行业走强 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 沪指突破 3300 点》 2025-05-06 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅整理》 2025-04-30 《市场分析：汽车互联网行业领涨 A 股震荡 整固》 2025-04-29 联系人： 李智 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共7页 11784 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（05 月 07 日）A 股市场高开低走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3328 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度回升，盘中航天航空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Government has officially issued the "Implementation Plan for Boosting Consumption," aiming to stimulate consumer potential and promote the prosperity of the consumption market in the province [1][2]. Group 1: Employment and Income Enhancement - The plan includes the "Million Talents Gather in South Guangdong" initiative, targeting the recruitment of 1 million college graduates for employment and entrepreneurship in Guangdong [1]. - It aims to train over 780,000 skilled workers by 2025 through programs like "Cantonese Cuisine Master," "Guangdong Technicians," and "South Guangdong Housekeeping" [1]. - The government will continue to implement a temporary reduction in unemployment insurance rates and improve the minimum wage adjustment mechanism to ensure workers receive fair compensation [1]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Support - To enhance consumer confidence, the plan will increase support for childbirth and childcare, including the implementation of childcare subsidies and simplifying the subsidy distribution process [2]. - It emphasizes improving educational services and ensuring access to education for children of migrant workers, alongside increasing student financial aid [2]. - The plan also aims to enhance healthcare and elderly care services, including the establishment of a reasonable adjustment mechanism for basic pension insurance benefits [2]. Group 3: Promotion of Major Consumption Markets - The plan proposes to implement a trade-in policy for consumer goods, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and digital product sectors, encouraging businesses to adopt a model combining fiscal subsidies, corporate discounts, and financial empowerment [3]. - It aims to utilize local government special bonds to promote urban village renovations and increase the supply of affordable housing [3]. - The plan seeks to expand the automotive market by advocating for national support for automotive circulation reform trials and establishing a second-hand car trading service platform [3]. Group 4: Brand Influence and New Consumption Models - Guangdong will enhance the influence of consumption brands and support the development of original intellectual property (IP) brands, particularly in emerging sectors like animation, gaming, and e-sports [4]. - The plan promotes the application of new technologies such as AI and virtual reality to create integrated digital and physical consumption scenarios [4]. - It encourages the development of low-altitude and yacht tourism, supporting the demonstration of low-altitude consumption application scenarios [4]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Policy Adjustments - The plan emphasizes the construction of smart commercial facilities and improving community commercial service systems [4]. - It aims to gradually reduce consumption restrictions and adjust policies related to purchasing, transferring, and credit [4]. - The government encourages cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen to relax vehicle purchase restrictions and increase car purchase quotas [4].