库存稳步回升，锡价高 位震荡 锡周报 2026/01/24 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：云南地区冶炼厂开工率维持高位，本周开工率为88%，与上周基本持平，但受原料供应偏紧制约，进一步提升空间有限。江西地区 仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以 ...

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the power battery market in December was weak, with both exports and domestic sales underwhelming, leading to a significant reliance on heavily subsidized heavy-duty truck batteries [1] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 202 GWh in December, marking a 49% year-on-year increase, while the total production for the year was 1756 GWh, up 44% year-on-year [3][4] - The market share of leading battery manufacturers, CATL and BYD, remains strong, with a combined market share of 62% expected to persist into 2025 [2][23] Battery Production and Demand - In December 2025, the proportion of power batteries used in vehicles is projected to decrease to 49%, with ternary battery usage at 45% and lithium iron phosphate at 50% [4][5] - The demand for electric vehicle batteries continues to grow, with a forecast of 14.5 million new energy vehicles in 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year [14] - The energy density of battery models with over 160 Wh/kg is expected to decline, with only 10% of models in this category by Q4 2025, down from 13% in 2024 [22] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for battery manufacturers remains dominated by CATL and BYD, with CATL's market share projected to decrease to 43.2% by Q4 2025, while BYD's share fluctuates around 22.6% [23] - Emerging companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Geely Yao Ning are showing strong performance, indicating potential growth opportunities in the market [2][23] - The overall battery market is characterized by a stable competitive structure, with larger companies continuing to expand their market share while smaller firms seek technological advancements to gain traction [17]

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, surpassing the combined annual electricity consumption of the EU, Russia, India, and Japan, and more than double that of the United States [4][6][40] - The rapid growth from 1 trillion to 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in just 20 years is unprecedented among major economies, showcasing China's economic strength [4][6] Electricity Consumption Growth - Electricity consumption is a key indicator of economic performance, reflecting China's steady economic development over decades [6] - Despite global economic uncertainties, China's electricity consumption is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year, demonstrating the resilience and vitality of its large-scale economy [6] Energy Supply and Infrastructure - By November 2025, China's installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 1.76 billion kilowatts, a 34% increase from the previous year, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for over 60% of total generation [8][10] - The country's electricity transmission capacity will reach 370 million kilowatts, supported by 46 ultra-high voltage lines, facilitating efficient energy distribution across regions [10][11] Structural Changes in Electricity Consumption - The industrial sector remains the largest consumer of electricity, accounting for approximately 64%, but the growth rate of high-energy-consuming industries is only 1.8%, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors see a growth rate of 6.4% [18][20] - The rapid growth of the tertiary sector and residential electricity consumption is becoming a significant driver of electricity demand, with internet services and electric vehicle charging industries experiencing substantial increases [22][24] Transition to Electricity Exporter - China has transitioned from being a major electricity consumer to an electricity exporter, supplying power to 16 neighboring countries and offering comprehensive energy solutions and technical standards [28][34] - The successful implementation of ultra-high voltage technology has positioned China as a leader in the global electricity sector, with 20 international standards established [30][32] Global Influence and Responsibility - China's overseas investment in the electricity sector has reached $110.4 billion, enhancing its influence in the global electricity market [36] - The country's commitment to green development and energy transition is recognized globally, contributing to its status as a key player in the international energy landscape [36][40]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a net loss of approximately 1.289 billion to 1.576 billion yuan in 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Petrochemical anticipates a net profit loss of about 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan, with a similar range for its non-recurring net profit loss [2] - The company reported significant losses in 2022 and 2023, with a net loss of 2.872 billion yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 1.406 billion yuan in 2023 [6][7] - The revenue for 2022 was 82.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.57% year-on-year, while 2023 saw an increase in revenue to 93.014 billion yuan, a growth of 12.72% [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average annual price of WTI crude oil in 2025 is projected to be $64.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, while Brent crude is expected to average $68.19 per barrel, down 14.62% [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to decline in 2025, with gasoline averaging 8,282 yuan per ton (down 5.76%) and diesel at 7,146 yuan per ton (down 5.51%) [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Demand - The prices of key chemical products produced by Shanghai Petrochemical, such as polyethylene and polypropylene, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with polyethylene prices dropping by 20.28% [4] - The average price of paraxylene is projected to decrease from $940.74 per ton in 2024 to $814.75 per ton in 2025, reflecting a 13.39% decline [5] - The demand for traditional petroleum products is under pressure due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faced operational challenges due to maintenance shutdowns, which impacted production and increased material and energy consumption [5] - The overall refining profit margin for independent refineries in Shandong is projected to be low, averaging 260.1 yuan per ton in 2025 [4]

（二）预计经营业绩 经五矿新能源材料（湖南）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润21,000.00万元到25,000.00万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将实 现扭亏为盈。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日-2025年12月31日 预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润20,000.00万元到24,000.00万 元。 本次业绩预告是公司财务部门基于自身专业判断进行的初步核算，尚未经注册会计师审计。目前本公司 尚未发现对本次业绩预告准确性构成重大影响的不确定性因素。 六、其他说明事项 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）利润总额：-47,387.58万元。归属于上市公司股东的净利润：-50,758.14万元。归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-55,711.98万元。 （二）每股收益：-0.26元。 三、业绩预告预审计情况 本次业绩预告未 ...

证券代码：688779 证券简称：五矿新能 公告编号：2026-004 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）利润总额：-47,387.58万元。归属于上市公司股东的净利润：-50,758.14万元。归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-55,711.98万元。 转债代码：118022 转债简称：锂科转债 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日-2025年12月31日 （二） 预计经营业绩 经五矿新能源材料（湖南）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润21,000.00万元到25,000.00万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将实 现扭亏为盈。 预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润20,000.00万元到24,000.00万 元。 五矿新能源材料（湖南）股份有限公司 （二）每股收益：-0.26元。 三、业绩预告预审计情况 本次业绩预告未经会计师事务所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved an investment of RMB 199,100 million for the construction of the Xiangjie Super Factory, focusing on the industrialization of high-end platform models and the digitalization of production lines [2][7][10]. Group 1: Investment Overview - The investment project aims to enhance production efficiency and support the introduction of new models, specifically targeting the BE22 3.0 platform [11][16]. - The project will cover key processes including stamping, welding, painting, and assembly, with the goal of improving flexibility, efficiency, quality, and intelligence in manufacturing [11][18]. - The investment has been approved by the board of directors and does not require shareholder approval as it does not meet the threshold for such a review [10][20]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The project aligns with the company's overall strategic development plan and is expected to enrich the product lineup, facilitating rapid technological upgrades and enhancing core competitiveness [20]. - The Chinese electric vehicle industry is experiencing significant growth, with opportunities in high-end MPV, sedan, and SUV markets, which the company aims to capitalize on through this investment [16]. Group 3: Expected Benefits - The project is anticipated to quickly introduce new models, enhance the high-end product matrix, and strengthen the brand's market position [18]. - Financially, the project is expected to impact the company's cash flow in 2026 but will not significantly affect the operating performance for that year [22].

Summary of Zhongrong Electric's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongrong Electric - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and Electrical Components Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Zhongrong Electric is experiencing strong growth in the NEV sector, particularly with its incentive fuses penetrating high-voltage applications and motor-side protection, enhancing device value [2][4] - The company is actively expanding into the European market to capitalize on new vehicle cycles [2][4] - The overall market environment is challenging, with NEV growth slowing and raw material prices rising, yet Zhongrong Electric has managed to exceed expectations in 2025 [3][21] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects a seasonal decline in Q1 2026, with January orders being strong but February potentially lower due to the Spring Festival [2][5] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 700 million yuan, significantly outperforming the industry average [3][21] - The growth target for 2026 will be announced after the annual management meeting, with expectations of substantial growth despite not specifying exact figures [2][27] Cost Management and Raw Material Impact - Rising copper and silver prices have pressured profitability, but the company is implementing measures such as rolling procurement, project adjustments, and automation improvements to mitigate these effects [2][6] - The company is actively communicating with clients regarding cost pass-through and is preparing for annual price discussions considering various factors including raw material costs [10][11] Product Development and Expansion Plans - Zhongrong Electric is expanding its product line to include components and integrated products that match its fuses, with some already in the designated phase [2][8] - The company is also preparing to apply incentive fuses in HVDC systems, with ongoing research and development efforts to improve materials and processes [3][12][16] - New product developments include high-voltage distribution boxes and smart distribution boxes, which are expected to significantly enhance overall value [4][9] International Market Strategy - The company plans to continue its overseas market development, with production lines expected to start mass production in 2026 [7][23] - Key clients such as Tesla and European automakers are entering mass production phases, contributing to the company's growth [24][25] Competitive Landscape - Zhongrong Electric's main competitors are foreign brands, but it has achieved higher sales in the domestic market due to strong customer recognition and product performance [15] - The company aims to increase its market share in overseas markets as new models from international automakers are launched [22] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant progress in overseas business starting in 2026, with production lines in Thailand and Xi'an expected to contribute to capacity expansion [23][28] - The company is also exploring new factory locations to meet future capacity demands, with plans for a second-phase factory construction by 2027 [28] Challenges and Considerations - The company faces challenges in maintaining gross margins due to fluctuating copper prices, with strategies in place to stabilize margins [32] - The smart distribution box project is still in the R&D phase and is not expected to contribute to sales in the short term [31] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Zhongrong Electric's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning within the NEV industry.

Core Viewpoint - Jiangling Motors reported a solid performance in 2025, achieving a record high in vehicle sales and maintaining a stable operational foundation despite industry challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Jiangling Motors sold 377,300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%, and generated revenue of 39.17 billion yuan, up 2.07% [1]. - The total asset scale reached 33.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.20% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.71%, primarily due to non-recurring financial adjustments [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Management - The decline in net profit was influenced by the reversal of deferred tax assets and a provision for asset impairment of 351 million yuan [2]. - The company actively managed its finances by writing off 83 million yuan in stagnant inventory and idle equipment, which optimized asset structure and improved future operational efficiency [2]. - Excluding the impact of these factors, the core business profitability remained stable, indicating solid operational quality [2]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - Jiangling Motors expanded its product matrix significantly, launching several new models, including hybrid SUVs and electric commercial vehicles, which contributed to overall growth [3][4]. - The company’s new "Blue Whale" fuel light truck and "E Road Max" pure electric heavy-duty light truck were introduced to strengthen its position in the high-end market segment [4]. - The SUV and new energy vehicle segments showed remarkable performance, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 223% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Future Strategy - Jiangling Motors achieved a significant increase in overseas sales, exporting over 160,000 vehicles in 2025, a growth of over 37% [6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing overseas channels and localizing projects in key markets to integrate deeper into the local automotive ecosystem [6]. - Future strategies include accelerating the development of a comprehensive product matrix in new energy and investing in cutting-edge technologies like intelligent networking and autonomous driving [6].