行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 20 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 20 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：检修复产产能增加 铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 加拿大考虑提高反制美国钢铝关税，保护国内行业。加拿大政府表示，若与特朗普政府的贸易谈判 陷入僵局，最早将 7 月 21 日提高对美国钢铁和铝产品的关税，使其水平与美国更广泛贸易安排的进展相一 致。此后，加元收窄盘中多数跌幅，多伦多上市的阿尔戈马钢铁集团股价一度涨近 8%。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20585 | -95 | 19 ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 698. 0 | 2. 5 | 0. 36% | | | 1250 ...

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq and Dow futures rose over 0.4% while the S&P 500 futures fell over 0.5% [1] - WTI crude oil futures dropped over 1%, currently priced at $72.95 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing sideways fluctuations, with recent high prices deterring Indian buyers despite a recovery in procurement activity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Palm oil prices are currently stable, showing no significant upward or downward trends [1] - Indian buyers have recently resumed purchasing but are being discouraged by elevated prices [1] - Analysts suggest that there is still support for prices at lower levels, indicating potential resilience in the market [1]

| 11/11/2 | 国版斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月19日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ★☆★ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯藏 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 伊朗甲醇装置大面积停车减产,霍尔木兹海峡航运安全风险加剧。但现阶段港口库存 ...

豆粕生猪：下游需求较好 基差放量成交 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 JIOBHI FILTURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 3104 | 3002 | 9.00 | 0.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 2769 | 2761 | 8.00 | 0.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 3077 | 3062 | 15.00 | 0.49% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 2428 | 2412 | 16.00 | 0.66% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 6月19日 ...

库存速度缓慢，基本面驱动力不足，以震荡走势为主，关注主产区新季棉花生长情况。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13525 | -15 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19770 | -70 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -39243 | 22 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -88 | 179 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 525918 ...

Group 1: Trading Holiday Arrangements - CME's agricultural products, live hogs, live cattle, cocoa, coffee, 11 - number sugar, ICUS's cotton and orange juice are on holiday on June 19; CME's interest rates, bonds, indices close early at 01:00 on the 20th, metals and energy close early at 02:30 on the 20th, and low - sulfur diesel, Brent crude, WTI close early at 01:30 on the 20th; ICEU's sugar closes early at 00:00 on the 20th [2] - BMD's all products are on holiday on June 27; DCE, INE, ZCE's all products are on holiday on June 19 [2] Group 2: Key News - Oil prices rise slightly after fluctuations due to speculation of US joining Middle - East conflict; London copper falls slightly as traders weigh Middle - East situation and tight supply; spot gold drops [3] - The US dollar rises slightly, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fall as US officials prepare for possible strike on Iran; the RMB is stable [4] Group 3: Economic Data - In the US, the Michigan consumer confidence index in June is 60.50 (expected 53.60); the New York manufacturing survey index in June is - 16.00 (expected - 7.00); retail sales in May decline by 0.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.7%); etc [5] - In China, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in May is 7.9% (expected 8.1%); the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in May is 6.4% (expected 4.9%); etc [5] Group 4: Energy Futures Market Overview - New York crude (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 75.14, a daily increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month increase of 20.86%, and a 3 - month increase of 13.34% [6] - Brent crude (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 76.7, a daily increase of 0.33%, a 1 - month increase of 18.02%, and a 3 - month increase of 10.15% [6] - Natural gas (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 3.989, a daily increase of 3.58%, a 1 - month increase of 15.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 14.74% [6] Important Data - EIA crude inventory changes by - 1147.3 barrels (previous - 364.4); EIA natural gas inventory changes by 95 billion cubic feet per day (previous 109) [9] - The total number of drilling rigs is 555 (previous 559); the number of oil drilling rigs is 439 (previous 442) [9] Group 5: Metal Futures Market Overview - Gold (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 3408.1, a daily increase of 0.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.97%, and a 3 - month increase of 9.58% [7] - Silver (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 36.913, a daily decrease of 0.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.22%, and a 3 - month increase of 6.64% [7] Important Data - COMEX gold inventory is 3778.42 million ounces (change - 0.03); COMEX silver inventory is 49573.51 million ounces (change - 84.8) [10] - SPDR gold trust total is 947.37 tons (change 1.43); ISHARE silver trust total is 47182.39 million ounces (change - 127.25) [10] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Futures Market Overview - The US dollar index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 98.468, a daily increase of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.08% [8] - The euro (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 1.1544, a daily decrease of 0.03%, a 1 - month increase of 1.84%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.66% [8] Important Data - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.3909% (change 0.05%); the 10 - year German Treasury yield is 2.497% (change 1.19%) [11] Group 7: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The small - cap Dow Jones index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 42512, a daily decrease of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.82%, and a 3 - month decrease of 0.45% [12] - The small - cap S&P 500 index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 6034.25, a daily decrease of 0.07%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.20% [12] Important Data - The US federal funds target rate is 4.5% (change 0.00%); LIBOR US dollar overnight is 5.06157 (change 0.20%) [15] Group 8: Soft Commodity and Agricultural Product Futures Market Overview - No. 2 cotton (DEC 25) has a settlement price of 66.67, a daily decrease of 1.98%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.48%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.15% [13] - No. 11 sugar (OCT 25) has a settlement price of 16.31, a daily decrease of 1.21%, a 1 - month decrease of 7.80%, and a 3 - month decrease of 17.21% [13] Important Data - ICE non - commercial net position has different values and changes in different cases; ICE commercial net position also has corresponding values and changes [16]