化工日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端反弹，PTA价格上涨 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，欧佩克+同意明年全集团保持产量稳定，八个主要产油国重申明年Q1 暂停增产，部分缓解油价压力，油价有所反弹。整体基本面对油价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在， 需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN264美元/吨(环比变动+4.00美元/吨）。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重 整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位，海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高 位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注调油情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -33元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费175元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费263元/吨（环比变动+10元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA供需好转，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.5%（环比+0.2%）， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For nickel trading, the recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations [1][3]. - Given low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for stainless steel trading is neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2601 opened at 117,080 yuan/ton and closed at 117,850 yuan/ton, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 145,829 (+59,900) lots, and the open interest was 122,891 (-4,444) lots. It showed an oscillating upward trend, staying in the 116,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton range. The 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish medium - term trend. The significant increase in trading volume showed increased divergence between bulls and bears without a clear breakthrough. The enhanced market expectation of the Fed's policy shift and the weakening US dollar index provided support for nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was dominated by a wait - and - see sentiment, with prices remaining stable. An Indonesian mine won the bid for 1.4% nickel ore in the Philippines at 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, with good shipping efficiency. Weak nickel - iron prices and受挫 iron - mill profits led to cautious nickel - ore procurement, and some iron mills considered production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (first phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade nickel - ore prices decreased, and the premium also had downward potential [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading of refined nickel was okay, and the spot premiums of various refined - nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722 (-587) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 254,760 (-690) tons [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,375 yuan/ton and closed at 12,445 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,599 (+40,379) lots, and the open interest was 108,469 (-4,171) lots. It rebounded slightly driven by nickel prices but failed to break through the recent oscillation range. The significant increase in trading volume showed intensified multi - empty game without a clear trend breakthrough, and the decrease in open interest indicated that some funds took profits, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - **Spot**: Low prices attracted some downstream rigid - demand purchases, which were mainly for replenishment. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 350 - 550 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-02 烧碱下游下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4553元/吨（+4）；华东基差-63元/吨（-4）;华南基差-53元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+50）；电石利润-50元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.2美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2212元/吨（-12）；山东32%液碱基差69元/吨（-51）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（-20）；山东50%液碱报价120 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5965元/吨（+25），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6020元/吨（-5）， 丙烯华东基差35元/吨（-25），丙烯华北基差37元/吨（+9）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR174 美元/吨（-6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR50美元/吨（-8），进口利润-304元/吨（+11），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-280元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-248元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润240元/吨 （+50）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润440元/吨（-4）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-480元/吨（-55）； 酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（-162）。 市场分析 供应端，镇海炼化裂解装置重启，中化泉州、上海石化装置检修， ...

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The center of aluminum prices has been rising, but downstream buyers are cautious. Micro data for electrolytic aluminum do not show strong bullish factors, and the social inventory remains stable. After the absolute price increase, downstream buying enthusiasm is low, and the spot discount continues to widen. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, with prices falling below the marginal highest cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested [1][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is -50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is -180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,640 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is -135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 1, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,615 yuan/ton, closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,915 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,575 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 255,931 lots, and the position was 265,623 lots [2] Inventory - As of December 1, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,833 tons, down 102 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On December 1, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,701 yuan/ton, closed at 2,677 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2,705 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,668 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,094 lots, and the position was 359,920 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 1, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 17,200 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,200 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was -269 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Micro data do not show strong bullish factors. The social inventory remains stable. After the price increase, downstream buying enthusiasm is low, and the spot discount continues to widen. The low absolute inventory value is not a bearish factor for prices. In the traditional consumption off - season, if the social inventory does not increase but decreases, it will become a bullish factor. The market is optimistic about future consumption, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6] Alumina - The domestic spot market price continues to be weak, and the trading volume has declined. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. Although there are production cuts in the north due to environmental protection, the impact on the current oversupply situation is limited. The bauxite price is firm, but the sentiment towards price is weakening. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory continues to increase, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern [8] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $165.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 190 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 170 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 180 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton and closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 128,295 lots, and the position was 105,756 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a change of -3,800 tons from the previous period. As of December 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 52,025 tons, a change of 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Strategy - **Single-sided**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Inter-period positive spread arbitrage [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the supply contraction supports the price, and the soybean price is expected to run smoothly in the short - term under the relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. However, the purchasing enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened [1][2][3] - For peanuts, the overall supply in the producing areas is relatively tight, with regional price differentiation. The demand side purchases cautiously, and oil mills generally adopt a strategy of strict quality control and price - pressing acquisitions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No.1 2601 contract was 4126.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 26, down 18 or 32.14% from the previous day. The new - season soybean prices in the Northeast producing area showed a small regional increase of about 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is gradually running out, and farmers generally hold their grain and are reluctant to sell. The market price is in a stalemate, and the effective supply is tight due to the hoarding psychology of traders. The policy plays a supporting role, and large enterprises are actively purchasing, but the purchasing in the sales area is cautious [1][2][3] 3.2 Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 8152.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 1152.00, up 46.00 or - 3.84% from the previous day. The national average price of common peanuts was 4.10 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The supply in the producing areas is tight with regional price differentiation, the demand side is cautious in purchasing, and the oil mills have a low operating rate and adopt a price - pressing acquisition strategy [4][5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene, and the accumulation rate of port inventory is accelerating. Downstream开工 remains at a low level in the off - season, with styrene in maintenance and low - load operation, CPL开工 further declining from a low level, and the开工 of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand is still weak. Styrene port inventory has slightly declined, and styrene is still in the low -开工 maintenance stage, with the resumption plan postponed. Off - season downstream开工 is still low, EPS开工 with obvious seasonality continues to decline, PS开工 rebounds but inventory pressure still exists, and ABS finished product inventory pressure remains and开工 stays at a low level [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene [8][12][18] II. Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene plant production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, and styrene import profits [21][23][27][33] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene's East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [39][44][45] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [49][52][53] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures involve the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][65][73][75][85] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - Period: Go long on the inter - period positive spread of EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4]

化工日报 | 2025-12-02 青岛港口库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15250元/吨，较前一日变动-160元/吨；NR主力合约12170元/吨，较前一日变动-105 元/吨；BR主力合约10310元/吨，较前一日变动-105元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10250元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增 ...