1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive. The supply pressure is increasing as refineries have increased production recently, while the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the strengthening of crude oil prices provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [8][10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt, are generally lower than the historical average levels. Although the operating rate of waterproofing membranes has increased, the overall demand is still below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Inventory**: On June 12, the social inventory is 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; the in - plant inventory is 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [11]. - **Basis**: On June 12, the spot price in Shandong is 3725 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Expected Outlook**: The refinery's recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish during the peak season. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the profitability of asphalt production from crude oil [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among different products [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price fluctuations in the spot market [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is related to the production choice between asphalt and coking products [42][43][44]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the market supply situation [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which is an important part of the asphalt supply [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [50][51]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [54][56]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production situation of refineries [57][59]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the production activity level [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trends of the maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which affects the actual supply [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the market's deliverable inventory [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation at different locations [71][72]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory management of refineries [74][75]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [77][78]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Price Difference Trend**: The historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which affects the competitiveness of imported asphalt [80][81][82]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the overall market demand [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which is an important factor affecting asphalt demand [89][90]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which also affect asphalt demand [91]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [93][94][96]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [98][99]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt operating rate and modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the production situation of different types of asphalt [101][102]. - **Downstream Operating Situation**: The historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in different downstream industries [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively understand the market's supply - demand relationship [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]

宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据 本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | M E G 2 0 ) 上 期 开 现 聚 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 新 期 单 值 前 涨 幅 / 1 3 更 现 现 货 价 中 间 价 石 脑 油 C F R 日 本 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 美 元 吨 5 8 0 5 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2507 | 2864 | 2872 | 2886 | 2853 | 2874 | 10 | 0.35% | 68216 | ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 对二甲苯：油价大幅上涨，估值重塑 商 品 研 究 PTA：成本推升，反套离场 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-12 | 6536 | 4620 | 4234 | 6362 | 3645 | | 2025-06-11 | 6528 | 4620 | 4285 | 6414 | 3563 | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 日度变化 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% | 2.3% | | 月 差 | P X（ 9 - 1） | P T ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 沥青：暂时震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,554 | 1.89% | 3,540 | -0.39% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,543 | 1.78% | 3,530 | -0.37% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2507 | 手 | 52,667 | 12,111 | 60,412 | (516) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 12,642 | 450 | 29,057 | 1,242 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月12日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入谈季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格涨势放缓。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到寒 潮和花期大风的影响，坐果率和苹果质量可能会受到一些影响。不过，4月份寒潮过程中低温对产量的影响不大，主要增加了果 锈的风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply pressure is gradually increasing, demand has not improved significantly, and although the futures market has a short - term rebound, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to short after the rebound of the soda ash main contract [2]. - For glass, the current futures price has fallen below the profit support, and there is still upward momentum from the basis regression. In the short - term, it is advisable to go long at low prices, while in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go short [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 981 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 194 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,602,361 lots, an increase of 105,599 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,490,737 lots, an increase of 64,703 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 314,426 lots, down 15,120 lots; glass top 20 net position is - 233,116 lots, down 17,006 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 5,495 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between soda ash September - January contracts is 10 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the price difference between glass September - January contracts is - 59 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; glass basis is 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,305 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate is 1,048 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash plant operating rate is 80.76%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.53%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.05 million tons; the number of glass in - production production lines is 224, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.6783 billion tons, an increase of 513,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.754 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.092 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, an increase of 25.8758 million square meters [2]. Industry News - China and the US have reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads - of - state phone call and the Geneva talks [2]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no further information on the next arrangements for China - US economic and trade consultations [2]. - China will implement zero - tariff on 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [2]. - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on June 7 to release medium - and long - term liquidity [2]. - Industrial Securities clarified that it has not received any written or oral information about the merger with Huafu Securities [2]. - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, although the overall profit of the soda ash industry has declined, natural soda ash projects still maintain high profits. The maintenance of traditional backward production capacity has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in large supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, futures and spot traders are active in restocking, but the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a decline in demand. The continuous decline in glass production also drags down the demand for soda ash, and the subsequent de - stocking speed of soda ash will slow down [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, a new cold - repair production line has been added, the weekly output has decreased, the industry's overall profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited. On the demand side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, the demand will further weaken in the off - season, downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 变化 0 60 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高空 | 地缘升温，油价跳涨，关注高空机会。EIA 最新月报数据显示，原油供给 | | | | 压力逐渐上升；伊核谈判不确定性上升，美国从中东撤离部分人员，中东 | | | | 地缘冲突升温；市场调查数据显示，OPEC 实际产量低于计划量；消费旺 | | | | 季到来，中国原油进口回升。策略：轻仓试空。SC【490-505】 | | | 盘整 | 油价行至压力位，下游化工需求上升，液化气盘整。成本端油价短期受地 | | LPG | | 缘和消费旺季带动，走势偏强，但上行阻力上升；供需双增，炼厂检修逐 | | | | 渐结束，供给量上升，下游化工需求保持平稳，PDH 开工有上升预期。策 | | | | 略：卖出看涨期权。PG【4130-4230】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 原油走强，盘面延续反弹，华北基差为-2（环比+4），停车比例为 13.4%。 | | | | 本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量增加；社会库存转为累库，农膜需求淡 | | | | 季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略：基 ...