Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr emphasizes the need for caution in adjusting monetary policy, highlighting the potential lasting impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Barr advocates for a prudent approach to policy adjustments, suggesting that patience is necessary to gather more economic data and refine risk assessments [3] - In September, the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, a decision Barr supports [3] - The Fed officials anticipate two more rate cuts within the year, reflecting ongoing challenges in balancing employment and inflation risks [3] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Barr points out that while tariffs have had a lower-than-expected direct impact on inflation, their potential effects should not be overlooked [3] - He explains that as companies adjust pricing strategies in response to rising costs, there may be upward pressure on prices in the future [3] - Barr notes that tariffs, as a one-time cost shock, theoretically should not lead to sustained inflation increases, but ongoing price adjustments could alter inflation expectations [3] Group 3: Labor Market Assessment - Barr expresses cautious optimism regarding the labor market, indicating that the recent slowdown in job growth is complex and not solely due to weakened demand [4] - He analyzes the supply-demand balance in the labor market, suggesting it remains "roughly balanced" despite fluctuations in employment [4] - Barr's remarks reflect the Federal Reserve's multifaceted considerations in achieving a balance among economic growth, employment stability, and inflation control [4]

据自民党消息人士透露，日本议会原定于10月15日投票选出新首相，但由于执政联盟内部谈判激烈，投 票可能推迟。这一不确定性进一步加剧了日元的弱势表现，投资者对日本经济和货币政策的信心受到冲 击。 从技术面看，美元对日元汇率在突破151.00关键阻力后，连续测试153.00上方，显示多头趋势依旧稳 固。日线RSI指标显示汇价略有超买，短期可能出现温和调整，但整体结构仍指向上行通道。 周五（10月10日）欧洲交易时段，美元/日元震荡微跌，仍处于153关口下方，早些时候美元兑日元汇率 曾触及153.27，为2月中旬以来新高。因日本政局动荡，本周日元兑美元汇率重挫近4%，创下自2024年 10月初以来最大周线跌幅。 高市早苗周四表示，日本央行应独立制定货币政策，但需与政府目标保持一致。她强调不希望日元过度 下跌，但其言论未能提振市场对日元的信心。 交易员预计，日本央行12月加息的可能性仅为45%，而明确加息25个基点可能要等到明年3月。丹斯克 银行外汇研究员Mohamad Al-Saraf认为，日本央行本月可能选择按兵不动，但12月或将因通胀高企和低 利率环境而再次加息。他指出，日本通胀水平仍高于目标，利率却处于低位， ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr expressed concerns that further interest rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, indicating that the decision for a potential cut in October will be a "difficult choice" [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Barr highlighted the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, stating that the fear of increasing inflation is a significant reason for this caution [1] - He noted that if there were no concerns about the labor market, there would have been no need for a rate cut last month, indirectly confirming that the September rate cut decision was primarily based on a careful assessment of the employment market [1] - **Decision-Making Process** - The Federal Reserve must decide in October whether to adjust interest rates again, with Barr emphasizing that "taking very cautious actions is appropriate" [1] - He reiterated that the core mission of the Federal Reserve is to "balance various objectives," including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1]

前言 特朗普又出幺蛾子了！最近他把身边白宫职员米兰插进美联储理事会。 这是1951年美联储和财政部定下"央行独立"规矩以来，第一次有在职白宫的人踏进这个核心圈。 更扎心的是，米兰在议息会上直接反对美联储只降25个基点，喊着"该降50个"，明摆着顺着特朗普的胃 口来。 这下所有人都慌：美联储攒了百年的"独立人设"，是不是要栽在特朗普手里了？ 降息的底气是"假数据" 美联储说这次降息是应对着就业疲软，可 8 月新增就业就 2.2 万人、失业率涨去 2.9% 的账，其实算得 "糊里糊涂"。 因为就业数据本来不实！去年劳工部刚对 2024 年 4 月到今年 3 月的新增就业核减 91.1 万。 相当于之前统计的有一半岗位都是"编的"，51%的就业根本没发生过。 更邪乎的是，现在老百姓填统计局问卷的越来越少，政府没钱没人去核实，加上疫情后经济玩法全变， 以前的"企业出生-死亡模型"根本算不准现状。 数据还得滞后两三个月才出来，美联储做决策跟"摸瞎走路"有啥区别？就这还敢降息？简直是拿美国经 济当赌注。 政治之手伸进美联储 更可怕的是特朗普对美联储的"改造"。 以前美联储理事都是金融界的"老江湖"，讲专业不掺政治。 可现 ...

市场目光正聚焦于即将公布的澳洲关键经济数据。根据日程安排，澳洲联储9月政策会议纪要将于下周 二公布，而下周四还将发布9月份就业数据。这些重要信息的披露，预计将为研判澳洲联储未来政策路 径提供更多线索，也可能成为打破当前汇价僵局的重要催化剂。 技术面显示，澳元对美元汇率继续局限于0.6520/0.6630的窄幅区间内运行，场观望情绪浓厚。分析师指 出，0.6520和0.6415水平构成近期重要支撑位，而0.6630和0.6707则形成关键技术阻力。美元后续走势将 继续成为影响澳元方向的关键因素。 日线图技术分析显示，澳元兑美元正向上升通道方向反弹，暗示看涨动能正在复苏。然而14日相对强弱 指数（RSI）仍低于50中性线，表明当前仍存在看空压力。 周五（10月10日）亚洲时段，得益于澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克发表的谨慎货币政策声明，澳元/美元 走强，收复了前一交易日的部分失地，最新澳元兑美元汇率报0.6562，涨幅0.15%。 布洛克主席周五指出，服务业通胀仍具粘性。她表示第二季度通胀数据略超预期，但整体正朝着正确方 向发展。鉴于月度CPI数据的波动性，她强调需保持政策审慎，并补充说明劳动力市场虽仍偏紧，但可 能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract slightly up by 0.89% to 794.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Project Developments - Macro Metals announced that its Extension iron ore project in Western Australia is actively progressing, aiming for "excavation readiness" by 2026. The project has indicated resources of 161 million tons with an average iron grade of approximately 54.2%, and an annual production capacity of 2-4 million tons [2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Statistics - The total imported iron ore inventory at 45 national ports is 140.245 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons month-on-month. The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 146.411 million tons, up by 904,000 tons month-on-month [2] - The total imported iron ore inventory at steel mills is 90.462 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons month-on-month. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.9914 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons month-on-month, with a stock-to-consumption ratio of 30.24 days, down by 3.35 days [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Guoxin Futures, the supply and demand for iron ore are both strong. The demand side is supported by high steel production, maintaining robust iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of reduced production from steel mills due to high inventory pressure, which may put some pressure on iron ore demand. Supply is expected to increase, leading to a relatively weak outlook for iron ore [3] - Zhongzhou Futures noted that the weekly production and consumption of the five major materials have decreased, leading to an accumulation of total inventory. Although pig iron production has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, with port inventories accumulating. Real estate sales and construction data remain poor, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection from some countries. From January to August, both imported and domestic iron ore have decreased year-on-year [3]

巴尔着重突出了美联储当前所处的"极具挑战性的复杂处境"。他深刻剖析道，在通胀压力与就业风险相 互交织的现实背景下，美联储每一项决策都犹如在天平两端权衡利弊，不存在毫无风险的理想路径。这 种高度谨慎的态度，与威廉姆斯以及戴利的观点形成了明显的差异，也清晰地凸显出美联储内部在关于 降息节奏这一问题上存在的显著分歧。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为920元/克至940元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于850元/克 至900元/克。 【要闻速递】 在经济领域的相关探讨中，威廉姆斯提出了颇具洞察力的观点：美国总统特朗普所推行的关税政策，其 对通胀的实际推升效果并未达到此前的预期水平。据他预估，该政策或促使物价水平上升大约0.25至0.5 个百分点，不过值得关注的是，核心通胀指标仍呈现出逐步向2%回落的良好态势。威廉姆斯进一步阐 释称，当下并无任何迹象表明关税会诱发第二轮通胀效应，同时也未发现有因素会放大通胀所带来的影 响。他还指出，经济结构的动态变化，例如劳动力市场的增速放缓，正有效地缓解着通胀的上行压力， 这一局面也为美联储在制定货币政策时提供了更为充裕的操作空间。 与之形成鲜明对比的 ...

新华财经北京10月10日电新加坡金融管理局预计将在下周的货币政策会议上维持设定不变，尽管由于美 国关税导致贸易放缓，但新加坡的增长前景仍保持韧性。 （文章来源：新华财经） 路透社对14位分析师进行的调查显示，其中有10位预计金管局在10月14日的例行审查中将暂不做出政策 调整。 马来亚银行经济学家蔡学斌表示，建筑业的繁荣、慷慨的财政支持和不断下降的利率，已经缓解了贸易 放缓带来的冲击。 他指出："从零售销售、酒店业、房地产交易、银行贷款、交易量和IPO交易等数据来看，一些经济领 域在第三季度似乎正在走强，这将有助于缓冲出口的收缩。" ...