Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]

Group 1 - Silver prices have exceeded $6, with a fixed price above $64 per ounce during the midday market clearing auction [1] - Gold prices increased by $100 from last Friday's benchmark, reaching around $4343 per ounce, before retreating to $4300 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and sector dynamics, with ongoing geopolitical events contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest level in five years in September, largely due to a surge in gold bar exports, particularly to Switzerland [2] - Trump's statement that "gold will not be subject to tariffs" has provided strong support for gold bar exports [2] - The Federal Reserve has reappointed all 11 current regional presidents for a five-year term, which is typically done in years ending in 1 or 6 [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face downward pressure, with a potential target of $4170-$4180 if prices fall below $4250 [4] - Silver prices are under significant pressure, with a critical level at $61.00; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $58.60-$58.80 [4] - Platinum is expected to show mixed short-term performance, with key support at 450 CNY per gram and resistance at 490 CNY per gram [4]

新华财经北京12月15日电（刘润榕）人民银行15日开展1309亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1223亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放86亿元。 上周（12月8日-12日）央行公开市场操作影响有限，全周7天逆回购仅净投放47亿元，月初资金需求不 高，叠加政府债缴款压力减弱，资金面总体维持宽松。隔夜利率缓步下行，R001由周初的1.37%连续下 行至周五的1.35%，DR001也再度下破1.3%，迎来新低，收于1.27%水平，打破了今年以来隔夜利率的 下限，即DR001始终在1.30%以上徘徊，宽松状态下也多位于1.31%附近。7天利率方面，随着税期（15- 17日）扰动渐近，7天资金价格的波动加大。周初R007同步下行，于周三触及1.49%的周内低点，自11 日起，拆借7天资金可完整跨税期，R007转为上行，于周五收至1.51%。 本周（12月15日-19日）7天逆回购到期规模小幅升至6685亿元；政府债净缴款规模将下降至-39亿元， 整体规模相对有限。12月15日为12月缴税截止日，同时也是中旬缴准日，当日央行将开展6M买断式回 购6000亿元，净投放2000亿元 ...

黄金价格（XAU/USD）在欧洲市场周一早盘交易时段持续上涨，触及4,325美元水平，创下近七周以来的高点。 不过，市场对美联储政策路径的预期仍存在变量。克利夫兰联储主席BethHammack近期指出，美联储应维持足够高的利率以持续压制通胀。芝加哥联储主席 AustanGoolsbee也提到，因前期政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟发布，等待更多信息后再调整利率是更审慎的选择。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周一的讲话，将为市场提供更多政策线索。 这一走势延续了近期贵金属市场的上行趋势，主要受到市场对美联储明年可能调整货币政策的预期影响。 黄金作为无息资产，其价格与市场利率水平存在直接关联。利率降低会减少投资者持有黄金的机会成本，从而提升这种贵金属的配置吸引力。 美联储上周宣布了2025年第三次也是最后一次降息，将利率下调25个基点至3.50%至3.75%的目标区间。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，当前利率水平让央 行处于有利位置，未来将保持耐心观察经济形势。这一表态进一步强化了市场对宽松周期延续的判断。 若动能延续，金价可能冲击4381美元的历史高位及4400美元心理关口。下行方向，12月12日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to stimulate economic potential and address external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The 2026 policy will exhibit more pronounced "cross-cycle" characteristics, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions remaining viable policy tools [1][2]. - The conference introduced five new "musts," including the need to fully tap economic potential to address insufficient effective demand and release domestic demand space [2]. - The focus on combining investment in physical assets and human capital highlights the importance of enhancing investments in education, healthcare, and social security to deepen growth functions [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy aims to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [3]. - The emphasis on guiding financial institutions to support domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises indicates a prioritization of expanding domestic demand in financial policy [3]. - The observation of the GDP deflator's recovery slope in 2026 serves as a critical indicator for monitoring economic conditions [3].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-15 海外主权债务风险走高；样本范围；全球货币体系持续演进。 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央经济工作会议精神学习： 符合预期，整体定调更具针对性》 - 2025.12.12 宏观研究 理性看待货币政策对通胀的提振作用，关注居民去 杠杆 核心观点 11 月金融数据呈现以下特点：一是债券融资特点愈发明显，债券 融资增长对冲信贷融资需求放缓，实体经济融资需求相对平稳；二是 企业融资需求延续回升态势，或是新型政策金融工具带动；三是居民 短期信贷收缩，呈现居民去杠杆特点，或部分抵消贴息政策对消费的 提振作用；四是 M1 同比增速环比较为明显下降，应是短期居民去杠 杆的影响，M2 同比增速环比微跌，指向大量资金沉淀为定期存款，M1 与 M2 增速负剪刀差持续走扩，经济活性下降，未能有效转化为实体 投资与消费需求。 基于以上分析，我们理解，货币 ...

➢ 摘要： 1 | 3 | | --- | | 3 | | 4 | | 7 | | 13 | | 14 | | 16 | | 16 | | 23 | | 27 | | 30 | | 36 | | 36 | | 37 | | 38 | | 40 | | 41 | | 43 | | 43 | | 46 | | 48 | | 48 | | 49 | | 51 | 3 4 图 1-1：1980-2026 年 IMF 对于全球实际 GDP 增速统计和预测 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 5 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 6 前三季度/上半年 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 美 国 2.0% -0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 2.1% 加拿大 2.9% 0.5% 1.6% -0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.0% 欧 盟 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 1.6% 英 国 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 瑞 士 2.5% -1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 1.4% 日 本 1.6% 0.4% 1.9% 0 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding the high valuations in the AI sector while maintaining optimism about the potential boost to the real economy from lower rates [1] - As a result of sector rotation, funds have flowed from high-valuation tech stocks into rate-sensitive financial and industrial sectors, causing a divergence in the performance of the three major U.S. stock indices [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and balance sheet expansion has driven down U.S. Treasury yields and weakened the dollar, resulting in an approximate 2% increase in international gold prices last week [4] - Silver prices reached new highs due to supply shortages, tight inventories, and surging industrial demand, despite a significant drop of about 4% on Friday; overall, silver prices rose by 5% for the week [4] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced a significant decline as investors focused on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with some anticipating a peace agreement that could lead to the return of Russian oil to the international market [5] - For the week, the price of the main contract for New York crude oil futures fell by 4.39%, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 4.13% [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - This week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to worse-than-expected economic growth [8] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain its current policy, with traders expecting no rate cuts in the near future, and some analysts suggesting a potential for rate hikes next year [8] - The U.S. is set to release its first non-farm payroll report and November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data since the end of the government shutdown, with expectations of increased job numbers and a potential rebound in CPI growth to 3.1% [11]

2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 股指会议支撑暂歇，债市 或震荡运行 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约跌0.71%，10年期主力合约跌0.13%，5年期主力合约跌0.08%，2年期主 力合约跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：货币方面， "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具" 。灵活高效或许有两层含义：1）在经济运行整体向好的环境下，保持克制的政策力 度，注重高效；2）但当经济出现失速风险，或者因外部冲击出现一些不利局面时，货币政策必须灵活，政 策力度也可能更大，或许将超出市场预期。这意味着货币政策是相机抉择的立场倾向，市场不宜站在当前时 点就判断明年降息幅度比较有限，也不宜过度期待。尽管前期超长债面临的供需关系结构性失衡问题并未彻 底得到解决，曲线在中期维度或许依然保持偏陡状态运行。后续的供给压力以及配合性的货币环境或 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货先扬后抑，周初市国债期货主力合约全线收涨，30年期等长期品种表现相对强势，然而，市场情绪在上周五发生显著转变，当日各期限国债期货主 力合约全线收跌，其中30年期品种跌幅尤为明显。前半周驱动债期反弹的动力一方面来自于超跌反弹后的技术性补缺需求，另一方面是由于资金价格不断走低， 流动性较为充裕。后半周配合着中央经济工作会议落地和补缺结束，债期随即开始调整。中央经济工作会议指出，外部环境的恶化已成为常态化挑战，国内"供 强需弱矛盾突出"，要"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战"。"这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可 以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"。相比于去年，政策层面对于内外形势的变化有了更多主动性的把握和应对。货币政策方面，会 议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，这意味着提升物价在央行政策目标的重要性大幅提高。会议提出"灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具"，用词从去年的"适时"变为"灵活高效"，并增加了"多种政策工具"，这意味着央行的操作 ...