Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the U.S. employment population to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, potentially reigniting concerns about economic growth [1] - Poor non-farm payroll data could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-cutting timeline, as inflation remains distant from targets, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates only 12% of respondents believe the U.S. fiscal deficit will significantly impact the market next year, suggesting that most market participants do not view the fiscal deficit as a major short-term concern [1] - Over time, more investors expect the fiscal deficit to have a significant market impact, with only 8% believing it will have no effect during this period [1] Group 3: Stablecoin and Treasury Demand - Citigroup argues that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries in the short term, as new stablecoins may come from existing bank deposits or money market funds, leading to no net increase in Treasury demand [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with potential incremental Treasury demand from cash reallocation and foreign deposits [2] Group 4: UK and Eurozone Economic Indicators - XTB analysts note increased volatility in UK government bond yields since 2022, attributed to high government debt levels, with a need for public spending to return to pre-pandemic levels to stabilize the bond market [3] - Eurozone's June services PMI and composite PMI data indicate the longest low-growth phase in 27 years, with new orders contracting for 13 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic and external demand [3] Group 5: U.S. Treasury Supply and Economic Outlook - UBS Global Wealth Management reports that the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries should remain manageable, despite concerns over increased issuance to finance federal debt [4] - Analysts express caution regarding potential rate cuts in the U.S., despite pressure from President Trump and disappointing employment data, suggesting that rate cuts may not effectively address current economic issues [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of global trade frictions, the market focuses on the silver catch - up market. Short - term catch - up expectations may drive the silver price to break through upwards, but there are still uncertainties in interest rate cuts and economic expectations, and sudden risk events may increase the long - position holding pressure [2] - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile throughout the year, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. Fed's long - term loose monetary policy and expected 2 interest rate cuts this year drive the silver price, but in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts, the gold - silver ratio rises, and the industrial demand for silver is expected to decline negatively in 2025, which may put pressure on the silver price [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, Trump's policies and increased market expectations of Fed's interest rate cuts to 4 times promoted the silver price to run strongly. In the second quarter, Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude of not being eager to cut interest rates led to a short - term silver price plunge, but later the suspension of tariff implementation and the easing of Sino - US trade relations pushed the silver price to a new high in June [11] 2. Silver Catch - up Logic 2.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the price relationship between gold and silver. Its central value has been rising. The change is affected by factors such as the US dollar credit and economic expectations. A decline in the gold - silver ratio usually occurs in the economic expansion stage, while an increase occurs in the stage of rising economic uncertainty [15][20] 2.2 Comparison of Gold and Silver Performance in Bull Markets - There have been three major bull markets in the history of gold and silver prices. In the first stage of each bull market, the gold price usually starts to rise first, and in the second stage, the silver price is likely to start first. In 5 out of 6 upward stages, the silver price outperformed the gold price [22] 2.3 Conditions for Silver to Start Catch - up - When the future economic certainty increases or there is no recession expectation and inflation is expected to rise, the gold - silver ratio will usually be repaired downward. Currently, it is not a suitable stage for silver catch - up trading due to economic uncertainties and uncertainties in Fed's interest rate cuts this year [26][27] 3. Investment Demand Analysis 3.1 Real Interest Rate Analysis - The real interest rate represented by TIPS yield is negatively correlated with the silver ETP position. The real interest rate is affected by the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cuts this year has changed, and currently, the market expects 2 interest rate cuts this year [33] 3.2 Future Investment Demand Analysis - Fed is facing a dilemma of rising inflation and economic downturn due to Trump's new policies, and there are many variables in interest rate cuts this year. However, the long - term loose monetary policy is expected to support the long - term investment demand for silver [38] 4. Industrial Demand Analysis 4.1 Photovoltaic Silver Demand Analysis - In 2025, the expected growth rate of photovoltaic silver demand turns negative, mainly affected by the innovation of photovoltaic cell technology and the change of photovoltaic policies. The innovation of photovoltaic cell technology has a significant impact, and policy changes may also reduce the domestic photovoltaic installation expectations [40][41][44] 5. Market Outlook - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. The long - term loose monetary policy and expected interest rate cuts support the silver price, but factors such as the rising gold - silver ratio in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts and the decline in industrial demand may put pressure on the silver price. The tariff policy is a key factor affecting the silver price [48]

金十数据7月3日讯，周四公布的PMI调查显示，6月份英国服务业活动以近一年来最快的速度扩张，而 服务业价格的上涨速度是近四年来最慢的。这一结果可能会受到英国央行的欢迎。英国6月服务业PMI 终值从5月份的50.9升至6月的52.8。服务企业的价格涨幅为2021年2月以来的最低水平。英国央行正在密 切关注服务业价格，以衡量经济中的通胀压力。投资者普遍预计，继6月份暂停降息后，英国央行将在8 月份再次降息。 PMI数据显示，英国服务业正以去年8月以来最快速度增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cuts in the U.S. may not effectively address the issues of government debt and stagflation, as highlighted by Minsheng Securities' chief economist Tao Chuan and his team [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to increased market expectations for rate cuts this year due to disappointing recent employment data [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is causing imported inflation, which complicates the implementation of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Debt and Wealth - The high-interest environment in the past has resulted in the private sector holding an increasing amount of U.S. government debt, suggesting that lowering interest rates could negatively impact American wealth [1]

Group 1 - The central banks of the US, Europe, Japan, and other major economies are facing divergent monetary policies due to differing economic growth, inflation, and external environments [3][4] - The US Federal Reserve is currently maintaining interest rates, with potential for a rate cut in September rather than July, influenced by tariff policies and inflation data [3][4] - The European Central Bank is balancing between interest rate cuts and preventing euro volatility, while Japan is leaning towards normalizing its monetary policy amid rising inflation expectations [4] Group 2 - The dollar's status is under scrutiny, with a significant drop in the dollar index projected for 2025, influenced by Fed rate cut expectations and high interest expenses on US debt [4] - The euro is being considered as a potential alternative to the dollar, but challenges such as fragmented capital markets need to be addressed for its internationalization [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the low-radiation glass sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.15 points, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10431.03 points, up 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2130.74 points, up 0.33% [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 5 to 8 and will visit Egypt from July 9 to 10 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a primary regulatory task, aiming to create a better environment for high-quality capital market development [2] - A new policy in Guangzhou will initiate "commercial to public loans" when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%, with measures to control risks as the loan rate approaches 90% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion yuan [2] Industry Developments - The Shanghai superconducting material and headquarters base project, with an investment of 2.5 billion yuan, has officially commenced construction, marking the largest project in the superconducting field globally [3] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Hainan Highway announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiaokong Petrochemical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] - Tianqi Materials has filed a lawsuit against Yongtai Technology for commercial secret infringement, with expected economic losses of 887 million yuan [7] Company Performance - Zongshen Power expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 70% to 100% for the first half of the year; Jihong Co. anticipates a 55% to 65% increase; and Menohua expects a 143% to 175% rise in net profit for the same period [7] International Market Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.02% [7] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrary to expectations of an increase of 98,000 jobs [8] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.1% to $67.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 3% to $69.11 per barrel [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

日本央行审议委员高田创：随着降息可能性的减弱，美联储的货币政策操作在今夏仍值得关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rise further, with potential targets set at $3420 and $3460, driven by recent economic data and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Performance - On July 2, gold opened at $3338.68 per ounce, fluctuated within a $15 range, and closed at $3356.87, marking a daily increase of $18.19 or 0.54% [1]. - The daily trading range was $32.34, with a low of $3327.46 and a high of $3359.80 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for June showed a significant drop, leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which positively influenced gold prices [3][5]. - The market anticipates a rise in unemployment rates and a decrease in employment numbers, which are expected to support gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this support is broken [8]. - If gold closes above $3450 this month, it could enhance the bullish sentiment further [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3345 and $3336, while resistance levels are at $3365 and $3390 [10]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year, which could further support gold prices [5][6]. - The geopolitical situation and tariff policies are currently seen as less impactful on gold prices, although concerns remain regarding trade agreements [5].

Group 1: Trade Agreement - The United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods [4] - The agreement allows the U.S. to fully access the Vietnamese market with zero tariffs on U.S. exports [4] Group 2: Stock Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9%, driven by technology stocks, while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.02% [2] - Centene, a health insurance company, saw a significant drop of 40%, marking its largest decline in history, after it withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast due to lower-than-expected revenues in several states [2][4] Group 3: Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, significantly below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [3] - Employers announced 47,999 layoffs in June, approximately half of May's figures, attributed to broad economic pressures and some related to tariffs [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the 2-year yield increased to 3.80%, reflecting market reactions to employment data and trade agreements [3] - The focus is shifting to the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth to 110,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [3]