宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 降息前后美国经济仍疲弱 ——海外札记 20250903 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 降息按下快进键：——海外札记 20250825 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 美国通胀风险未能阻碍市场上行：——海 | 2025-08-19 | | 外札记 20250818 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to break new highs, while silver is likely to reach previous highs. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to a weaker US dollar, and zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][7][14]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For instance, weak US JOLTS job openings data has strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut [7][14][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break new highs. The trend strength is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40% [2][7][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach previous highs. The trend strength is 2, also indicating a strong bullish view. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [2][7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, copper prices are firm. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19% [2][13][15]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18% [2][16][18]. - **Lead**: With continuous inventory reduction, lead prices are supported. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09% [2][19]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31% [2][22][27]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The price center is moving down. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals and be affected by news - driven sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,915 [2][31][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the futures market. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 72,080, with a decrease of 1,200 compared to the previous day [2][37][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With warehouse receipt accumulation, the strategy is to short at high prices. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490, with an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2][42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market news. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160, with an increase of 285 compared to the previous day [2][43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to repeated macro - expectations, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the futures was 777.0, with an increase of 5.5 and a daily increase of 0.71% [2][46]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,034, with a decrease of 10 and a decrease of 0.33%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,310, with a decrease of 6 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][48][49]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 was 5520, with a decrease of 8; the closing price of Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 was 5720, with a decrease of 10 [2][53][55]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of JM2601 was 1106, with a decrease of 6.5 and a decrease of 0.6%; the closing price of J2601 was 1594, with a decrease of 2.5 and a decrease of 0.2% [2][56]. - **Log**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 775.5, with a daily decrease of 2.8% [2][58][61]. - **Para - Xylene**: The cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6810, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.35% [2][62]. - **PTA**: The strategy is to take a long position in the spread between different months. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4732, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.50% [2][62]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4331, with a decrease of 8 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks continuous driving forces and is waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to trade friction concerns, US soybeans are weak, while domestic soybean meal is slightly stronger. The trend strength is not provided [2][63]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is not provided [2][65]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the production and cost in Guangxi. The trend strength is not provided [2][66]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new crop listing situation. The trend strength is not provided [2][67]. - **Egg**: The near - term trading sentiment is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][69]. - **Live Pig**: The spot market is weak, while the long - term expectation is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][70]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing. The trend strength is not provided [2][71].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed mixed on September 3, with the Dow Jones down 24.58 points (-0.05%) at 45,271.23, the Nasdaq up 218.10 points (+1.02%) at 21,497.73, and the S&P 500 up 32.72 points (+0.51%) at 6,448.26 [1][2] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a historic high after a court ruling that prevents its breakup, boosting market optimism regarding tech giants' ability to withstand regulatory threats [1][9] - American Bitcoin made its debut on NASDAQ through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% at $8.04 [4] - Google shares rose over 9%, closing at a record high of $233.12 billion, following a favorable court ruling that allows the company to continue its payment agreements with Apple for being the default search engine on iPhones [9] Sector Performance - Technology stocks generally rose, contributing to the rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, while energy and banking stocks showed weakness due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [2] - Financial stocks mostly increased, with notable gains from Travelers Insurance and Hartford Insurance, while some major banks experienced slight declines [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing, with July job openings falling by 176,000 to 7.181 million, which was below economists' expectations [6] - The upcoming employment report is anticipated to show an increase of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [7][8]

Economic Activity and Employment - The Federal Reserve's recent report indicates that economic activity and employment in the U.S. have remained largely unchanged in recent weeks, with consumer spending either flat or declining [1][2] - The report highlights that wage growth for many households is not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to concerns about inflation and employment [1][2] Inflation and Price Changes - All 12 Federal Reserve districts reported price increases, with 10 districts noting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 districts experiencing "strong input cost growth" [1][2] - Tariffs have significantly impacted input prices, with businesses raising product prices to offset rising costs [1][2] Employment Trends - Eleven districts reported little to no change in overall employment levels, with one district indicating a slight decline [2] - A reduction in immigrant labor has been noted in several districts, particularly affecting the construction industry [2] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - There is increasing pressure for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [3] - Recent labor market data shows weak signals, with average monthly job additions since May being only 35,000 [3] Political Influence on Federal Reserve - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, who supports Trump's views on interest rates and advocates for increased presidential control over the Fed [4] - Trump's attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook have raised concerns about the political independence of the Federal Reserve, which is deemed crucial for effective inflation control [4][5]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 24.58 points (-0.05%) at 45271.23, the Nasdaq up 218.10 points (+1.02%) at 21497.73, and the S&P 500 up 32.72 points (+0.51%) at 6448.26 [1][2] - Technology stocks saw a broad rally, contributing to the rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, while energy and bank stocks underperformed due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [2] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a historic high after a court ruling that prevented its breakup, boosting market optimism regarding tech giants' ability to withstand regulatory threats [1][9] - American Bitcoin made its debut on Nasdaq through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% [3] Economic Indicators - Bank of America reported a near-record buying spree in small-cap stocks following Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rate cuts, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small-cap stocks and ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [2] - The July JOLTS report indicated a decline in job openings by 176,000 to 7.181 million, with hiring increasing by 41,000 to 5.308 million, reflecting a softening labor market [6] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to show a non-farm payroll increase of 75,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting the rise of tech stocks, particularly Alphabet, and the implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 24.58 points, a decrease of 0.05%, closing at 45,271.23 points; the Nasdaq rose by 218.10 points, an increase of 1.02%, closing at 21,497.73 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 32.72 points, a rise of 0.51%, closing at 6,448.26 points [2] - Tech stocks saw a broad increase, driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices higher, while energy and bank stocks struggled due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [3] - American Bank reported a significant influx of funds into small-cap stocks, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small-cap/micro-cap stocks and ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated that a rate cut this year is appropriate, contingent on inflation and labor market conditions [8] - The July job openings data showed a decline of 176,000 positions, bringing the total to 7.181 million, which was below economists' expectations [10] - The upcoming employment report is anticipated to show an increase of 75,000 non-farm jobs for August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [11] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Alphabet's stock reached a historic high, closing up 9.14% at $233.12 billion, following a court ruling that allowed the company to avoid a breakup and maintain its agreements with Apple [12] - American Bitcoin made its debut on the Nasdaq after merging with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is likely to continue lowering the key interest rate, but there is increased uncertainty regarding the timing of future actions [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of England reduced the key interest rate by 25 basis points last month, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [1] - Among the nine rate setters, four voted against the rate cut, citing a rebound in recent inflation data [1] - The Governor indicated that while the key interest rate remains on a downward trajectory, the pace of future cuts may not follow the previous quarterly reduction pattern [1] Group 2: Bond Portfolio Management - The Bank of England will maintain an "open attitude" regarding the reduction plan for its government bond portfolio, which will be announced on September 18 [1] - The scale of bond holdings reduction over the next 12 months may be less than the current cycle's £100 billion (approximately $134.3 billion) [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve has confirmed signals for interest rate cuts, with Governor Waller stating that he believes the next meeting should result in a rate cut and expects multiple cuts in the coming months [1] - Waller emphasized that the pace of rate cuts can be adjusted based on economic data, indicating flexibility in the approach [1] - He projected that the U.S. inflation rate will return to 2% within 6-7 months and stated that tariffs will not lead to long-term inflation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold and silver prices surged, with international gold reaching a historic high, and COMEX gold surpassing $3,600 per ounce [2] - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, particularly in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index rising over 1% [2][3] - Major tech companies experienced substantial stock price increases, with Google rising over 8% and Apple and Tesla both increasing by over 3% [3][4] Group 3: Performance of Chinese Tech Stocks - Chinese tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Xiaomi Group rising by 5% and BYD increasing nearly 3% [5] - Other Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and JD, experienced declines, with Alibaba falling by 1.59% [5]

Group 1 - The international gold price has recently surged, reaching a historical high of $3616.9 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have reported an increase in the price of pure gold jewelry, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry pricing at 1053 yuan per gram [2] Group 2 - Gold is regaining favor among investors as a diversification option, especially when bonds fail to mitigate risks, maintaining its status as a 'safe-haven asset' against inflation and loose economic policies [3] - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, the potential for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, along with tariff impacts and reduced labor supply, may lead to economic growth slowdown, benefiting gold [3] - The weakening of the US dollar, alongside concerns over expanding fiscal deficits, enhances gold's long-term investment appeal [3] - Structural narratives for investing in gold remain strong, with foreign exchange reserve management institutions continuing to buy gold and global gold ETF holdings on the rise [4]

美联储理事沃勒：我已经明确表示，我认为下次会议应该降息。希望在劳动力市场下行前行动。我预计 未来几个月将有多次降息。通胀预期锚定。10年期美国国债收益率在某种程度上已被锚定。降息不必拘 泥于固定的连续节奏。关税不会导致长期通胀。通胀率将在6-7个月的时间里开始回归2%。我们可以随 时调整降息的步伐。我其他同事的中性利率要高得多。 ...