证券日报网讯12月22日，华宝新能（301327）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，第三季度受地缘政 治、相关政策等短期外部因素的影响，公司成本端面临一定压力。后续，随着公司海外产能布局的稳步 推进以及全链条降本增效工作的持续深化，成本压力有望逐步得到缓解，长期经营向好的基础将更加稳 固。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced a "three consecutive declines," with gasoline prices reduced by 170 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 165 yuan per ton, effective from December 24 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 6.5 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 7 yuan for both 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [1][2]. - The cumulative adjustments in 2025 included 25 pricing windows, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 stasis periods, resulting in a total reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [2]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, influenced by increased supply from the U.S. and the resumption of production at Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, which produces approximately 460,000 barrels per day [3]. - Geopolitical factors, such as Ukraine's proposal to abandon NATO membership and the potential for a U.S.-Ukraine security agreement, have contributed to a decrease in risk premiums affecting oil prices [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the next pricing adjustment, with some suggesting a higher probability of price increases due to geopolitical instability and seasonal demand during the Christmas period [4][5]. - Others believe that the current low oil prices may limit the potential for significant increases, with expectations of a price adjustment of around 40 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Conditions - As the New Year holiday approaches, there is an increase in downstream stocking demand, which may support price and transaction activity [6]. - The recent drop in diesel prices and relatively low social inventory levels have prompted some market participants to consider replenishing stock, which could improve overall market conditions [6].

实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

今日A股市场高开高走，三大指数集体反弹，创业板指涨超2%。沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量1360亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超2900只个股上涨，其中有105只个股涨停。板块方面，海南自贸区、贵金属、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，医药商 业、影视院线、教育、银行等板块跌幅居前。 整个贵金属板块就像打了鸡血一样，集体狂飙。 说实话，贵金属涨没问题，这样集体暴走，属实有点出乎意料。 要知道，今年白银的涨幅已经翻了一倍多，黄金也飙升了差不多三分之二。 这到底是怎么回事呢？ 先说说大环境。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。 而在今天众多大涨的板块中，贵金属板块在近期的表现真的很亮眼。 现货黄金首次站上4400美元，白银冲破69美元，铂金突破2000美元大关，钯金也上窜1786美元，一个个的都在创历史新高。 | 国际当金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4405,100 | 66.740 | 1.54% | 67.87% | | 伦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebound [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Oscillate weakly [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and inventory levels. It provides investment suggestions for each product based on their specific market conditions [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus pull the oil price, which oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors include the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and rising uncertainties in South America. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global floating storage and on - the - way crude, and rising inventories in the US. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1][9]. - **Strategy**: Add short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations increase, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. Inventory is favorable, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing [1][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16]. L - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: Supply elasticity is insufficient, and the basis is continuously weak. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with low shutdown ratios and insufficient maintenance. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing slightly, facing de - stocking pressure [1][20]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on L in the range of [6250 - 6400] [20]. PP - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. In December, the demand enters the off - season, and the shutdown ratio drops. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on PP in the range of [6150 - 6300] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: High inventory and high premium structure limit the rebound space. Although overseas device shutdowns and maintenance support exports, the current upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and supply reduction is insufficient. Recently, both chlorine and alkali prices have fallen, and some marginal devices are reducing loads [1][27]. - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long on dips in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on V in the range of [4550 - 4650] [27]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has a slight reduction in load, with significant maintenance of PTA devices. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost end provides support. In the short - term, the fundamentals are healthy, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [3][29]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on TA in the range of [4880 - 5010] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Short on rebound. - **Main Logic**: Domestic ethylene glycol device operation loads increase, and overseas devices change little. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. Port inventories are rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [3][32]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG05 in the range of [3710 - 3770] [33]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up. - **Main Logic**: Taicang spot prices weaken slightly, and the negative basis strengthens. Port inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are increasing. The supply side has relatively good profits for coal/coke oven gas processes, and domestic device operation loads are at a high level. Overseas devices have a slight reduction in load. The demand side weakens slightly, and coal - based costs are expected to strengthen [3][36]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the rally. Look for opportunities to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on MA05 in the range of [2131 - 2181] [38]. Urea - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong stabilizes. The supply pressure is expected to increase in late December as some devices resume production. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [3][40]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on UR05 in the range of [1660 - 1700] [42]. Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: The shutdown of a production line at the US Freeport and relatively mild recent temperatures put pressure on gas prices. Supply increases as US exports decrease, and demand support weakens due to mild weather [6][45]. - **Strategy**: Focus on NG in the range of [3.895 - 4.260] [45]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. The supply and demand are both weak, but recent South American geopolitical uncertainties cause a short - term price rebound [6][48]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49]. Glass - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The in - plant inventory ends a three - week decline. High inventory limits the rebound space. The production line is stable, and the three - process profits turn negative. Real estate volume and prices are in an adjustment period [6][52]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1020 - 1060] [52]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases, and the in - plant inventory ends a five - week high - level decline. Although maintenance eases short - term supply pressure, the planned commissioning of a 2.8 - million - tonne device at Yuanxing in late December will keep the long - term supply loose. The demand support from the glass industry is insufficient [6][56]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [56].

目前，欧盟正在酝酿一个前所未有的大出血计划：通过发行联合债券，向乌克兰提供高达900亿欧元的巨额贷款，相当于7000多亿人民币。这笔巨款将由 欧盟27个成员国共同承担，用于支持乌克兰的战争机器。为什么欧盟这么急迫地要做出这种决定呢？因为欧盟自己也承认，如果没有这笔钱注入，乌克兰 的财政将撑不过今年春天。虽然这笔钱可能暂时填补财政上的漏洞，但背后隐藏的一个更残酷的问题却无人敢正面回答：这些钱到底能换来什么呢？ 1. 历史幽灵：当经济崩溃成为一种仁慈 回顾欧洲历史，我们不难发现一种黑色幽默。第一次世界大战持续到了第三年时，沙俄的内部经济已经支撑不住，货币贬值成废纸，国内发生了严重的面 包荒。工人罢工蔓延至彼得格勒，最终导致沙皇尼古拉二世退位，罗曼诺夫王朝灭亡，沙俄也退出了战争。沙俄退出战争的结果是什么？它避免了一代俄 国青年在战壕中死去。同样地，一战打到第四年，德国经济因为英国的海上封锁而彻底崩溃，通货膨胀失控。基尔港的水兵起义爆发，德皇威廉二世也仓 皇退位，德国也选择退出战争。结果呢？这同样拯救了无数德国年轻人的生命。从历史上看，欧洲战争中有一个残酷却仁慈的规律：国家的经济崩溃，往 往会在人口崩溃之前发生。一旦 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Russian officials is that if Europe collaborates with Russia, the combined economic power of Russia and Europe would surpass that of a certain major country, whereas continued opposition would lead to Europe's eventual "disappearance" [1] - Russian officials assert that the conflict is not initiated by Russia but rather by the West using specific nationalist groups to engage in warfare against Russia, indicating a division between European nations and the Anglo-Saxon bloc, primarily the US and UK [3] - The narrative of "proxy war" is emphasized, with Russian officials claiming that the war in Ukraine might not have occurred without NATO's eastward expansion and European nations' involvement, which they view as an encroachment on Russia's survival [5] Group 2 - There is a suggestion that certain European powers still desire to integrate into the so-called "European circle," albeit in a more indirect manner, indicating a complex relationship with the ongoing conflict [7] - The Russian perspective highlights that without NATO's actions and the involvement of European countries, the war would not have taken place, framing European nations as complicit in their own predicament [7]

来源：中国能源网 【美国原油供给】截至2025年12月12日当周，美国原油产量为1384.3万桶/天，较上周减少1.0万桶/天。 截至2025年12月19日当周，美国活跃钻机数量为406台，较上周减少8台。截至2025年12月19日当周，美 国压裂车队数量为160部，较上周减少8部。 【美国原油需求】截至2025年12月12日当周，美国炼厂原油加工量为1698.8万桶/天，较上周增加12.8万 桶/天，美国炼厂开工率为94.80%，较上周上升0.3pct。 【美国原油库存】截至2025年12月12日当周，美国原油总库存为8.37亿桶，较上周减少102.5万桶 （-0.12%）；战略原油库存为4.12亿桶，较上周增加24.9万桶（+0.06%）；商业原油库存为4.24亿桶， 较上周减少127.4万桶（-0.30%）；库欣地区原油库存为2086.2万桶，较上周减少74.2万桶（-3.43%）。 【美国成品油库存】截至2025年12月12日当周，美国汽油总体、车用汽油、柴油、航空煤油库存分别为 22562.7、1426.3、11850.0、4357.6万桶，较上周分别+480.8（+2.18%）、-192.1（-1 ...

地缘政治方面，中东、俄乌等地区局势难以缓和，美委局势又逐渐升温，市场避险情绪高企，为金价带 来一定支撑。中东方向，虽巴以在特朗普的调停下初步停火，但仍然十分脆弱。而俄乌战场方面，虽美 俄之前重启外交接触，俄乌冲突有望进入谈判的新阶段，但近期出现一定反复。此外，美委局势也出现 动荡，美军开火的诸多谣言甚嚣尘上。地缘政治局势的紧张下，市场避险情绪导致黄金价格易涨难跌。 后续关注新任美联储主席人选，若新任主席为鸽派，美联储降息节奏或更为激进，利好黄金表现。中长 期看，"美联储降息大周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价依然构成支撑， 或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金ETF（518800）。此外，黄金股票ETF（517400）也有望受益于黄金价 格上涨，可保持关注。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for gold and copper, driven by both structural and cyclical factors, with gold prices reaching new highs due to investment demand and geopolitical influences [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold and Copper - Both gold and copper are influenced by cyclical factors, such as economic conditions, and structural factors, which are independent of these cycles [2][3] - For copper, a structural supply shortage is anticipated due to geopolitical issues and resource nationalism, alongside increased demand driven by tariffs and AI expectations [3] - Gold is expected to benefit from a cyclical tailwind due to declining economic growth and interest rates in the U.S., as well as structural support from new tariff policies starting in April 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The investment framework remains focused on fundamental supply and demand relationships, with AI enhancing research and trading efficiency [5][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly altered the supply-demand balance, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical risks [8][9] - In copper, a notable increase in U.S. copper inventories and potential tariffs on imports are expected to shift supply dynamics [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The changing geopolitical landscape is reshaping global production and consumption patterns, with both the U.S. and China adjusting their strategies [10][12] - A new model called "3+ factors" has been developed to analyze the impact of monetary factors, inflation, and geopolitical risks on gold prices [13] Group 4: Long-term Investment Value of Gold - Investors are advised to balance growth and safety in their portfolios, recognizing that gold represents a safe asset while also considering inflation risks [15][16] - The structural and cyclical benefits for gold in 2025 may not persist into 2026, necessitating a cautious approach to future investments [17][18]