今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列 入美国"关键矿产"清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。 受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。 今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及每盎 司60.50美元。 作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致 金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱动力来自 于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入"关键矿产"清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货 潮。 降息预期叠加供应紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged past $60 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Silver prices increased by 4.4% to $60.97 per ounce, with an intraday high of $61.06; spot prices rose by 3.9% to $60.46, peaking at $60.50 [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has appreciated nearly 110%, outperforming gold and platinum [1]. - In comparison, gold has risen 60% this year, surpassing $4,200, but its growth rate is lower than that of silver, resulting in the gold-silver ratio dropping below 70 for the first time since July 2021 [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The immediate catalyst for the current silver rally is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut [3]. - Structural supply issues are a significant driver, exacerbated by the U.S. Geological Survey listing silver as a "critical mineral," which has heightened concerns over supply stability and triggered stockpiling [3][5]. - Despite some relief in supply due to inflows into London vaults, other markets are facing severe supply constraints, with China's silver inventory at a decade low [5]. - The Silver Institute forecasts a fifth consecutive annual deficit in the silver market by 2025 due to limited production and rising industrial and investment demand [5]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - Silver's strong industrial demand is expected to provide solid support for prices, driven by growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and AI [6]. - Analysts predict that industrial demand for silver will remain robust in the coming years, contributing to price increases [6]. - Silver plays a crucial role in the broader electrification process, grid upgrades, and in hybrid and electric vehicles, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for silver amid Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical tensions [6].

智通财经APP获悉，债券交易员押注美联储未来一年降息幅度将较为平缓，这是全球范围内押注美联储 将放缓或停止货币宽松政策的趋势的一部分。除了周三预期的25个基点降息外，期货和期权交易显示， 交易员们现在预计美联储将在2026年总共降息50个基点，其中大部分降息将集中在今年上半年。这与一 周前利率互换市场预期明年将降息近三次的情况截然相反。类似的鹰派情绪也迅速在澳大利亚、新西兰 以及最近的加拿大和欧元区等经济体中重燃。 在美国，这一转变发生在关键的劳动力市场数据开始发布之前，该报告延迟至下周公布，这些数据很可 能决定市场目前对美联储的看法是否会持续。周二，美国就业岗位空缺率指标超出预期。该数据推高了 美国国债收益率，并凸显了政策制定者在本周开会时面临的挑战，因为此时通胀仍然居高不下。 New York Life Investments首席市场策略师Lauren Goodwin表示，在物价持续承压的背景下，更大幅度的 降息可能会使美联储对抗通胀的信誉受到质疑。她表示，在美联储的政策路径上，"我们比市场略微鹰 派一些"。她还说，"美联储在2026年加息绝对存在风险"，尽管这并非他们的基本预期。 市场对美联储降息预期减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of risk factors for stock investments by insurance funds is expected to release more incremental capital into the stock market, potentially leading to an estimated increase of approximately 545 billion yuan in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Investment - The recent reduction in risk factors for eligible stock investments will allow insurance funds to allocate more capital to the stock market [2]. - As of September 2025, the balance of insurance fund investments reached 37.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%, contributing approximately 347.7 billion yuan in incremental funds from January to September 2025 [2]. - Assuming a 15% growth rate in the balance of insurance fund investments for the entire year and an average stock investment ratio of 9.7%, the incremental funds from insurance in 2026 are projected to be around 545 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan in the open market last week, with 663.8 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing in the upcoming week [3]. - Short-term interest rates are declining, while long-term bond yields are rising, indicating a mixed trend in the money market [3]. - The financing balance has increased, with net buying of financing funds amounting to 7.64 billion yuan and net inflows into ETFs reaching 3.12 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Preferences and Trends - In terms of industry preferences, sectors such as electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant net inflows from various funds [4]. - The market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity for financing funds, with a decline in equity risk premiums [3][4]. - The recent economic data has further bolstered expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while Japan's central bank has hinted at possible interest rate hikes [4].

今日原油期货主力合约2601合约下跌2.26%至446.1元/吨，最低价在444.4元/吨，最高价在453.3 元/吨，持仓量增加443至29784手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月09日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落， 欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈 富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁 止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国与委内瑞拉军事对 ...

[Table_Title] 工业金属领跑，白银价格大幅上涨 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 8.89% 近 2 周（2025.11.24-2025.12.05），有色金属行业指数上涨 8.89%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 2。从细分领域 看，能源金属（0.37%）、工业金属（12.91%）、金属新材料（7.71%）、 贵金属（5.28%）和小金属（6.77%）均有不同程度上涨。 金属价格：工业金属领跑，白银价格大幅上涨 截至 12 月 05 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 4227.70 美元/盎司，近 2 周 上涨 4.06%；沪金收盘价为 961.04 元/克，近 2 周上涨 3.68%。COMEX 白银收盘价为 58.80 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 18.41%；LME 铜现货结 算价为 11,645.50 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 8.98%；LME 铝现货结算价 为 2,865 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 3.60%；黑钨精矿（≥65%）价格为 352,000 元/吨，近 2 周上涨 6.9 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.61% [6] - The total trading volume across both markets was 1.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6] - The number of stocks that rose was 1,308 out of a total of 4,058 stocks listed [6] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities suggests that the long-term stable operation foundation of the A-share market may be further solidified due to policy dividends and industrial upgrades [2][6] - Dongguan Securities indicates that ongoing domestic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment are driving economic recovery, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which supports the market [2][6] - Guotai Junan predicts that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, the Chinese stock market may enter a year-end rally, with indices expected to rise to new levels [2][6] Investment Products - Huabao Fund has launched a series of three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China Securities A50, A100, and A500 indices, providing investors with diverse options for bullish exposure to China [2][6] - The A50 ETF focuses on 50 leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF covers a broader range of 500 stocks [2]

【黄金期货行情表现】 12月9日，沪金主力暂报951.54元/克，跌幅达0.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价958.04元/克，截至目前最高 958.50元/克，最低949.00元/克。 【宏观消息】 美联储将于周二、周三召开议息会议，并于周三（北京时间周四凌晨3点）公布议息决定。目前市场普 遍认为，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能再度降息25个基点。 【机构观点】 英国、法国、德国以及乌克兰领导人在英国伦敦举行会晤。乌克兰总统泽连斯基会后表示，乌克兰和欧 洲即将完成对旨在结束俄乌冲突的"和平计划"的修改，并将在完成后提交给美国。根据英国方面公布的 消息，此次会晤围绕俄乌冲突和平进程和美国提出的"和平计划"展开讨论。各方一致强调，现在是关键 时刻，任何和平方案必须保障乌克兰的领土完整，提供切实的安全保障，避免单方面让步。各方同意继 续加强欧洲、乌克兰与美国之间的战略合作。 昨日金价震荡走弱，纽约金下探4200美元关口，沪金下探950元关口。11月下旬以来金价上行的动力主 要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。短期市场对美联储降息预期计价较为充分，而 市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。临近美联储12月议息 ...

基 金 研 究 ETF 基金周报（20251201-20251205）： 中证 A500 类 ETF 基金获资金青睐 2025 年 12 月 9 日 投资要点 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340521010001 基金从业资格证书编号： F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 资讯 ETF 基金周报 1.各类 ETF 基金平均收益及资金流动概览 各类ETF基金周度平均收益及资金流动概览：本周全球权益市场整体偏 强，美国三大股指全线收涨，港股市场整体亦表现较好，而欧洲市场相 对疲弱。国内市场方面，权益市场整体震荡上行，多数宽基金指数录得 上涨。映射在ETF基金上，各类型EF基金中仅债券型ETF基金周度平均收 益为负。本周ETF基金资金净流入209.88亿元，各类型ETF基金均出现不 同程度净流入。12月是今年金融机构业绩考核、收益排名的最后一个月， 也是明年开门 ...