来源：市场资讯 1.1. 涨跌幅 （来源：德邦证券研究） 8月市场主线不明显，市场预期围绕9月降息展开，杰克逊霍尔会议暂时弥合双方分歧，后续关注降息幅 度。8月白宫与美联储的博弈加剧，在8月上旬特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰以填补美联储理事的空缺之后， 特朗普又呼吁另一名理事丽莎·库克立即辞职，原因是涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。可以看到，即使鲍威尔在8月 22日杰克逊霍尔会议上放鸽，也未能阻止特朗普对美联储的继续施压，我们认为这可能有三方面的考虑 因素：第一，特朗普希望加速降息，目前9月降息25bp已经成为市场主要预期，而特朗普可能希望降息 幅度加大、节奏加快。第二，特朗普的施压能为自己开脱"罪名"。如果后续美国经济真的超预期走弱， 特朗普有充足的理由"甩锅"给美联储，将衰退的原因归咎于美联储没有及时降息，或是降息幅度不够 大。第三，对美联储内部理事的间接掌控长期来看有助于货币政策和财政政策的协同作用，如果米兰提 名成功，丽莎·库克的事件发酵导致被替代，特朗普可能在7理事中获得多数支持，有助于后续特朗普政 策的协同落地。 英伟达财报对市场影响有限，9月需等待新的驱动因素。英伟达公布财报喜忧参半，收入与利润均超预 期，对三季度的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi and the simultaneous surge in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.0% to $3475.5 per ounce and COMEX silver increasing by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [2][39] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%, indicating a decline in developed market indices [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% and India's SENSEX30 falling by 1.8% [3][11] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of political events in France, where Prime Minister Borne's proposed €44 billion austerity plan led to a significant drop in the CAC 40 index and a spike in bond yields, raising concerns about the government's stability [47] - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for short-term and floating rate bonds, with the 6-month bond showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, reflecting robust investor interest [51][52] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. fiscal deficit for the year 2025 has reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending compared to the previous year [54][56] - The article mentions that the Federal Reserve's recent actions, including the dismissal of Governor Cook by Trump, have led to fluctuations in stock and bond markets, with a potential shift in the balance of power within the Fed [63][73] Group 4 - The article reports that the U.S. PCE price index for July matched market expectations at 2.6%, while core PCE inflation was at 2.9%, indicating stable inflationary pressures [81] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 229,000, lower than market expectations, suggesting a resilient labor market [84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's direct comments on the Federal Reserve, emphasizing his demand for "absolute integrity" from the Fed and his readiness to take legal action, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's remarks about the Federal Reserve's leadership and his mention of potential successors indicate a strategy to undermine the current leadership while reassuring the market [1] - The article highlights the tension between Trump and Fed Chair Powell, suggesting that Trump's actions may be seen as an attack on the Fed's autonomy [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts, citing high housing prices and debt pressures, but economists believe that merely lowering rates will not address the budget deficit [1] - Reports from Deutsche Bank and Bank of America warn that if the Fed becomes a "helper" to the Treasury, it could lead to a loss of market confidence in the dollar, posing a significant risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for interest rate cuts, suggesting a 25 basis point reduction in September and further cuts in the next three to six months if economic data indicates significant weakness [6][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller emphasizes the need for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower policy rates now, given core inflation nearing 2% and increasing risks in the labor market [6][7]. - He indicates that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on newly released economic data, particularly employment figures [7]. - Waller defines a more neutral stance for monetary policy as a reduction of 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points from the current policy rate range of 4.25%-4.50% [8]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Waller expresses concerns about signs of weakening in the labor market, warning that the situation may deteriorate quickly [7]. - He argues that the FOMC should not wait for conditions to worsen before adjusting monetary policy, as this could lead to a lag in appropriate responses [7]. Group 3: Political Context - The article notes that Waller's comments come amid heightened pressure from President Trump for rate cuts, following a failed attempt to remove another Fed governor [7]. - Waller reiterates that the Fed should disregard temporary inflation impacts from tariffs, suggesting that these effects are not long-lasting [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market lacks a clear main theme in August, with expectations centered around a potential interest rate cut in September, particularly after the Jackson Hole meeting which temporarily bridged the divide between parties [3] - The report highlights the intensifying conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to fill a vacancy on the Fed's board and his call for another board member, Lisa Cook, to resign due to alleged mortgage fraud [3] - It is suggested that Trump's pressure on the Fed may serve three purposes: to accelerate interest rate cuts, to deflect blame for any economic downturn, and to gain indirect control over the Fed's board to facilitate coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's earnings report had a limited impact on the market, with mixed results; while revenue and profit exceeded expectations, guidance for Q3 fell short of some analysts' optimistic forecasts, raising concerns about Nvidia's prospects in China [3] - The report notes that despite Nvidia's stock decline, major indices like the Nasdaq remain resilient, indicating that Nvidia's earnings did not disrupt the previous upward trend in the AI sector [3] - The strategy suggested is to look for opportunities to buy on dips in the U.S. stock market, as the current market is in a "awkward period" with most major asset prices oscillating within extreme ranges [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and upcoming significant data releases, which could influence market movements [29][30] - It provides a preview of important data releases, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI and employment figures, as well as European and Japanese economic indicators [29] - The report also includes various charts illustrating the performance and valuation of global stock markets, highlighting trends in major indices and sectors [20][22][26]

Group 1 - The market is expected to be relatively quiet due to the Labor Day holiday in the US and Canada, with a focus on the manufacturing PMI data for August from major economies, particularly the UK and Eurozone, which indicate continued contraction [1] - The Eurozone's August CPI initial value is being monitored to see if it remains steady at 2% or increases, which could impact the European Central Bank's decisions on interest rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Australia's GDP for Q2 is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6%, which is crucial for maintaining confidence in the economy, especially after recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] Group 2 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is expected to rise to 49, and if it falls below 48, it would mark the lowest level since October of the previous year, affecting market confidence in economic prospects [3] - The US ADP employment figures for August are projected to slow down to 68,000 after a surprising increase in the previous month, which could influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - The Eurozone's Q2 GDP revision is expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.4%, which may support the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - US inflation shows resilience while employment weakens, and the window for the Fed's policy shift has opened. The core PCE inflation in July rebounded to 2.9%, but the market still widely expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, emphasizing the risk of a weakening job market and hinting at a possible interest - rate cut in September, which significantly increased the market's expectation of a rate cut [2]. - The Trump administration's global tariff policy was ruled illegal, but it remains effective until October 14 while the government appeals to the Supreme Court, and the final result will affect trillions of dollars in trade [3]. - In the context of "tariff disturbances + the Fed turning dovish", US Treasury yields will oscillate at high levels with downward potential. It is recommended to maintain medium - to - short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation, and focus on investment - grade bonds in the credit bond market. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have allocation value [4]. Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents charts on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of US Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts of US Treasuries, and the implied interest - rate cut expectations in the federal funds rate futures market [12][13][21][23] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report includes charts on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [24][26][36][38][41][45][46] Exchange Rates - The report shows charts on the one - year trends and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year locked - in exchange cost of the US dollar against the RMB [49][50][56][58] Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The report provides charts on the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the returns in the past two weeks (by rating and industry), the net financing trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [62][64][66][67][71] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 9 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, 2 first - time ratings, and 3 rating downgrades, and specific information on each action is provided [74][75]

Group 1: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating the release of the U.S. July Core PCE data, with a consensus expectation of a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly above the Federal Reserve's mid-year forecast of 2.8% [1] - If the Core PCE data meets expectations, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high; however, if it unexpectedly exceeds 3.0%, it could disrupt the Federal Reserve's plans and lead to short-term volatility in U.S. stocks [1][8] Group 2: XBIT Decentralized Exchange Performance - XBIT decentralized exchange saw a trading volume exceeding $20 billion in July, a 350% increase month-on-month, with institutional users accounting for 42% of the volume, indicating a significant rise in trust among professional investors [2] - The platform's non-custodial architecture and smart contract auditing mechanism ensure user private keys are stored offline, eliminating the risk of asset misappropriation [4] - XBIT's unique "on-chain order book + off-chain matching engine" technology allows for millisecond-level transaction speeds, helping users avoid liquidity issues in traditional markets [6] Group 3: Risk Management and Trading Mechanisms - Analysts suggest that if the Core PCE data is below expectations (e.g., below 2.7%), the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve will strengthen, potentially leading to a continued rebound in U.S. stocks; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, caution is advised regarding potential market corrections [8] - XBIT's decentralized arbitration mechanism ensures that trading disputes are resolved through community node voting, providing additional protection for traders in a high-volatility environment [8] Group 4: Technological Innovations and Market Impact - XBIT is the first exchange to adopt "quantum-resistant encryption algorithms" and "cross-chain liquidity pools," achieving asset cross-chain trading delays of less than one second [9] - The AI-driven compliance auditing system, NeuralAudit, can monitor abnormal trading activities in real-time, enhancing the platform's security and compliance [9] - The platform's efficient trading experience and secure architecture provide investors with a quality channel to balance risk and return, especially during the initial phase of rate cuts [11] Group 5: Future Market Dynamics - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 91.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the Core PCE data being a key determinant [11] - Regardless of the outcome, XBIT's technological innovations and security advantages are reshaping trading paradigms in the cryptocurrency market, positioning it as a crucial tool for investors to seize market opportunities during pivotal policy shifts [11]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump's dismissal, focusing on the interpretation of the "just cause" clause in the Federal Reserve Act, with the case potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1] - Trump’s administration is considering increasing its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, including reviewing the selection process for bank presidents [1] - The Federal Reserve responded to Cook's lawsuit, stating that governors have term and dismissal protections [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, expecting further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes it is appropriate to lower rates at the right time, indicating that current policy remains moderately restrictive [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests it is time to adjust policy due to conflicting inflation and employment targets [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizes the need for improved communication regarding interest rate paths and economic outlook [2] European Central Bank Insights - ECB's Rehn states that inflation risks are "tilted to the downside," indicating potential for future rate cuts [2] - The U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on European exports could slow Eurozone growth by "several percentage points" [2] Other Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Hungary has set its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, indicating that the fight against inflation is not over [3] - The Bank of the Philippines has cut rates by 25 basis points, with the possibility of further cuts [4] - The Bank of Brazil's survey shows economists expect GDP growth of 1.86% in 2026 and an inflation rate of 4.86% for 2025 [5] - The Bank of Indonesia will continue to participate in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Rupiah's alignment with fundamentals [6] Market Observations - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following Trump's dismissal of Cook, leading to a decline in the dollar [7] - Analysts predict the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace to £70 billion over the next 12 months due to rising yield concerns [8] - Swiss bank analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay its rate cut path due to unexpectedly high CPI readings [8] - The Philippine central bank appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle, with expectations for one more rate cut this year [9]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. July core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations[3] - From January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits amounted to 24,786.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year[3] - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to August reached 23,270.5 billion CNY, down 13.3% year-on-year[3] Market Trends - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.82 basis points to 3.619%[3] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.70 basis points to 3.694%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.31 basis points to 4.224%[3] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,455.55, down 1.15%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,544.88, down 0.20%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,460.26, down 0.64%[5] Foreign Exchange and Commodities - The U.S. dollar to CNY exchange rate was 7.13, down 0.08%[5] - The price of Brent crude oil was $68.12, down 0.73%[5] - The spot price of gold was $3,446.81, up 0.91%[5]