"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，美联储主席鲍威尔在7月1日讲话中回避了一个关于7月份的尖锐 问题，在距离召开FOMC货币政策会议还有四周之际，他拒绝排除任何可能性。他的整体言论几乎没有 暗示任何为本月降息做准备的努力。 最近，由于关税上调已被暂停，且早期（是否为时过早？）通胀数据尚未显示出显著效果，鲍威尔暗 示，如果通胀没有人们担心的那么严重，降息可能会恢复。 对7月份的关注（至少在今天）可能掩盖了最近几周他和其他人的言论中更微妙的转变。在美国总统特 朗普于4月2日发布关税公告后不久，人们就推测物价上涨幅度可能非常大，以至于需要有证据表明劳动 力市场出现实质性疲软才能降息。 ...

大家好啊，今晚看看美股的表现。 美股分化 另外，特朗普表示他可能会考虑驱逐出生在南非的马斯克。 前不久，马斯克抨击特朗普提出的"大而美法案"，称其"完全疯狂且具有破坏性"。在回应特朗普最新帖文时，马斯克在X上发文写道："我真心希望把 所有补贴都砍掉，就现在。" 这并非特朗普与马斯克首次因政府支出计划发生冲突，今年早些时候两人就曾爆发争执。 英伟达股价盘中大幅跳水跌超3%。芯片股普遍回调，AMD、ARM下跌约4%，博通下跌超3%，阿斯麦、美光下跌约2%，台积电下跌超1%。 | .SOX 费城半导体指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5477.73 + -68.82 -1.24% | | | | | | | | 图表 具相权 | 评论 | 资讯 | | | | | | VWAP 成交量 | 元比 | KDJ | MACD | RSI | | | | 0 田 名称代码 ⇒ | | | 价格 = | | 涨跌幅 ⇒ | 涨跌额 | | MACOM Technolog ... | | | 136.155 | | -4.98% | ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：无法说7月份考虑降息是否为时过早。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：绝大多数美联储委员预计今年晚些时候会降息。我们看到劳动力市场正逐步降温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, emphasized that the decision on whether to further lower interest rates will be closely monitored in relation to financial stability risks [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently assessing the potential need for additional interest rate cuts [1] - Financial stability risks are a primary concern influencing the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

印尼央行行长：有空间进一步降息。 ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight pullback to $107,000, with a total of 83,845 liquidations globally amounting to $211 million [1] - The market has been extremely sluggish since Saturday, with trading activity dropping significantly, resembling a lack of motivation due to the hot weather [1] - Major players are taking advantage of low liquidity to create FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors, indicating a potential accumulation phase for them [1] Key Developments - Federal Reserve's Bostic predicts one rate cut this year and three next year, suggesting no need for rate hikes to combat inflation; Goldman Sachs forecasts a rate cut in September [2] - MicroStrategy purchased 4,980 BTC at an average price of $106,801, totaling $531.9 million, and holds 597,325 BTC at an average price of $70,982, valued at $42.4 billion [2] - On-chain activity remains subdued, with some altcoins like $ARB showing strong performance before news releases, followed by sell-offs [2] Bitcoin Analysis - BTC tested the $109,000 liquidation zone twice without triggering significant liquidations, indicating a potential struggle for buyers in the futures market while sellers dominate the spot market [3] - Current price levels around $105,000 to $106,000 are critical for long positions, with a potential drop to $105,000 or even $103,000 if the $106,000 support is breached [3] Strategy Insights - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on buying in the $105,668 to $104,688 range and waiting for short positions in the $107,713 to $108,313 range, with stop losses set at $1,500 [5] - For Ethereum (ETH), recent price movements indicate uncertainty, as two recent breakouts did not surpass previous highs, and trading volume remains insufficient to confirm a strong upward trend [6] Altcoin Market - The launch of tokenized stock trading is expected to impact "MEME coins," with significant interest from financial players in the Web3 space [7] - The current market is awaiting a clear catalyst, such as interest rate cuts or institutional entry, to potentially ignite a bullish trend [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with officials indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts in July, with a probability of less than 20% [1] - Most expectations lean towards a rate cut in September or later, with a slight probability of over 50% for a September cut [1] - Labor market shows signs of slowing but remains strong, supporting the Fed's wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - Grayscale's ETH sell-off has been accounted for, but buying power remains, indicating a net inflow, although the amount is low, reflecting limited interest from traditional investors [4] - ETH has outperformed BTC in terms of net inflow, with ETH's inflow increasing by 8 times compared to BTC's 2 times [4] - BTC has not experienced large-scale liquidations recently, suggesting a potential for 20% volatility, typically indicating a trend [5] - BTC closed above 107,000, with a short-term upward wedge pattern indicating potential support [5] - ETH's holdings by U.S. ETF investors have surpassed 4 million, marking a historical high [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current market sentiment shows a divergence, with skepticism towards BTC's future while maintaining optimism for altcoins [8] - Strategies suggest a dual approach of long and short positions, especially in a volatile market [9] - Recent projects in the primary market have shown promising performance, contrasting with the sluggish secondary market [9]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed higher on June 30, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new all-time closing highs [1] - For the first half of the year, the Nasdaq rose by 5.48%, the Dow Jones increased by 3.64%, and the S&P 500 gained 5.5% [1] - On June 30, the Dow Jones rose by 0.63% to 44094.77 points, the Nasdaq increased by 0.47% to 20369.73 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.52% to 6204.95 points [1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.88% to $3302.155 per ounce, and gold futures up by 0.83% to $3315.0 per ounce [5] - Oil prices fell, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Brent crude oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by early next year [1][6] Technology Sector - The US technology giants index saw a slight increase of 0.06%, with Apple rising by 2.03%, Meta by 0.61%, and Microsoft by 0.30% [3] - However, Tesla fell by 1.84%, Amazon by 1.75%, and Alphabet by 0.49% [3] Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the potential for OPEC+ to increase production in August have improved oil supply expectations [6] - The European Commission emphasized that the EU's digital market and service laws are not part of trade negotiations with the US [6] Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Former President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the US could save trillions in interest costs [7][8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future remains low, despite market expectations increasing for potential cuts in July and September [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump's tariffs and trade tensions remain a significant risk for Asia [1] - Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable country due to its heavy reliance on final demand from the United States [1] - The report anticipates a slight slowdown in GDP growth across most of Asia this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of weak economic growth and low inflation rates, further interest rate cuts are likely in many parts of Asia in the coming months [1]