Group 1: Report Overview - The precious metals market continued its upward trend this week, with the Greenland incident boosting market risk aversion, and domestic and international gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs [7]. - The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips recommended, while short - term high - level correction risks should be noted [7]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current US economic data generally meets market expectations. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged in the context of loose liquidity and a gradual slowdown in economic data [7]. Group 4: Periodic and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend due to macro - event shocks this week [8]. - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 was reported at 24,965 yuan/kg, up 11.04% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2604 was reported at 1,115.64 yuan/g, up 8.07% for the week [12]. - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 22, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holding was reported at 1,079.66 tons, a 0.51% increase; the SLV silver ETF holding was reported at 16,104 tons, a 0.90% decrease [13][17]. - As of January 13, 2025 (latest), the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased significantly. The COMEX gold net position was reported at 251,238 contracts, a 10.40% increase; the COMEX silver net position was reported at 32,060 contracts, a 9.53% increase [18][22]. - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 22, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was reported at - 14.58 yuan/g; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was reported at - 430 yuan/kg, showing a week - on - week weakening [23][27]. - This week, the gold and silver inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to diverge. As of January 22, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was reported at 36,144,279.82 ounces, a 0.19% decrease; the SHFE gold inventory was reported at 100,053 kg, a 2.46% increase. The COMEX silver inventory was reported at 426,476,499 ounces, a 2.5% decrease; the SHFE silver inventory was reported at 626,843 kg, a 1.10% increase [28][30]. Group 5: Industrial Supply - Demand Situation Silver Industry - As of December 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand both increased significantly. China's silver import volume was reported at 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was reported at 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase [32][36]. - Downstream: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of December 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was reported at 4,810,000 units, and the year - on - year growth rate was reported at 12.9% [38][41]. Silver Supply - Demand - The silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was reported at 680.5 million ounces, a 4% increase; the demand for coins and net bars was reported at 190.9 million ounces, a 22% decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was reported at 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was reported at 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% decrease [43][45]. - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was reported at - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease. The World Silver Institute predicted that in 2025, the global total silver supply would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [50][52]. Gold Supply - Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [54][71]. Group 6: Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly under the impact of macro - events [58]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly [63]. - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [67].

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks in Hong Kong have surged, with Senson International rising over 9% and Sany Heavy Industry increasing by 2.2%, reaching a new high during trading [1] - The engineering machinery industry has maintained stable orders in the first half of January 2026, with expectations for a sales peak after the Spring Festival [1] - Leading manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong are prioritizing overseas market capacity expansion as a core task for next year [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, a domestic upcycle in engineering machinery has begun, driven by equipment renewal demand and construction progress, leading to increased excavator sales and continued positive growth in non-excavator products [1] - Analysts suggest that under the backdrop of global loose fiscal and monetary policies, the theme of going overseas is expected to become a popular annual trend, with engineering machinery benefiting significantly from this logic [1] - Currently, leading companies in the sector have an overseas profit contribution ratio of over 70%, and the engineering machinery sector is likely to benefit from potential catalysts such as future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

近期，美国经济多项核心数据表现超出市场预期，强化了交易员对美联储年内推迟降息的判断。 美国劳工部公布数据显示，截至1月17日的一周内，美国初请失业金人数经季节性调整后为20万人，较 前一周小幅增加1000人，低于此前市场预测的21万人，反映出当前裁员率维持低位，就业市场仍具韧 性。 美国商务部同步更新去年三季度经济增速数据，将国内生产总值（GDP）环比年率增速上修至4.4%， 为2023年第三季度以来的最快增速，此前公布的初值为4.3%，今年第二季度GDP增速为3.8%，整体经 济增长动能强劲。 本周初，受美国总统特朗普威胁对反对其格陵兰岛收购计划的欧洲八国加征关税，叠加日本政府债券市 场因财政因素引发抛售潮影响，美国国债价格一度出现暴跌。周三，随着20年期美债拍卖需求强劲及特 朗普撤回关税威胁，美国国债市场收复大部分失地。富国银行驻纽约策略师Aroop Chatterjee表示："市 场已经消化了一些与格陵兰岛相关的不确定性。尽管如此，我怀疑这不会是我们最后一次听到特朗普收 购格陵兰岛的野心，因此，未来可能会出现更严重的波动。" 整体来看，美国经济的强劲表现为美联储维持当前利率立场提供了支撑，年内降息节奏或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper at high prices and waiting and seeing; strengthening observation on aluminum; waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; expecting silver to be strong; expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash (temporarily waiting and seeing), styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; expecting polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to be weak and volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Looking for short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not recommending short - chasing for eggs in the short - term; being cautious about chasing high for corn and waiting for rebounds to hedge; being bearish on soybean meal at high prices; expecting rapeseed oil to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil to be limited [1] 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. It analyzes the trends of different industries and gives corresponding investment strategies [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a range in the short - term, bullish in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. The yield curve shows a bull - flattening trend, with a hand - over from trading positions to allocation positions [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting short - term trading. Weak demand and high inventory pressure the price, but supply disruptions may limit the downside [7] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is at a neutral valuation. Steel exports may weaken, and short - term trading within a range is recommended [7] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. Speculative sentiment has cooled, and the inventory is shifting to the middle - stream. The price may decline before the Spring Festival [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to fall after rising. Suggesting exiting long positions at high prices and waiting and seeing. The short - term support for copper prices has decreased, and the inventory is expected to increase [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the price may adjust at a high level [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. The nickel ore is strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak, and the price may be under pressure [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading or taking profits on previous long positions. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable [16] - **Silver**: Expected to be strong, suggesting holding long positions and being cautious about new positions. Geopolitical tensions and economic data support the price [17] - **Gold**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading and being cautious about chasing high. Geopolitical and economic factors support the price [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price may be affected by the mining permit in Yichun [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached, suggesting range trading. The domestic demand is weak, but the low valuation and export policies may bring opportunities [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level, suggesting waiting and seeing. The demand is weak, and the supply is high, with pressure on the price [20] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The price has rebounded, but the high valuation requires caution [22] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is shrinking, and the cost supports the price, but the inventory pressure exists [22] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, with the price fluctuating within a range [23] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed, with the price being affected by geopolitical and inventory factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The supply and demand both have changes, and the price may have limited upside [25] - **Soda Ash**: Suggesting waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support may limit the decline [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply - demand balance is improving, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [28] - **Apples**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading volume is not high [28] - **Jujubes**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom. The spot price has stopped falling, and the futures price has rebounded. In the short - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended; in the long - term, being cautious about bullishness and hedging at high profits [30][31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound at a low level. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not recommending short - chasing. In the medium - term, the supply pressure may be relieved; in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33][34] - **Corn**: Expected to correct at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and being cautious about chasing high. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. The short - term support is strong, and the long - term price may be under pressure. Suggesting being bullish on the near - term contract and bearish on the far - term contract [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited. Suggesting being cautious about chasing high for soybean and palm oil and paying attention to the narrowing spread strategy [38][44]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.16%. Sectors such as precious metals, pharmaceutical commerce, and photovoltaic industries saw significant gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,130.11 points with a trading volume of 106.05 billion, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,349.01 points with a trading volume of 169.65 billion [2] External Market - U.S. stock markets continued their upward trend, with the Dow Jones up 0.63% to 49,384.01 points, the S&P 500 up 0.55% to 6,913.35 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.91% to 23,436.02 points. Most Chinese concept stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 1.58% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reported that rising prices of silicon materials and silver are pressuring profits in the photovoltaic sector. The firm anticipates a long-term tight balance in silver supply and demand, suggesting that copper could become a viable alternative material for photovoltaic applications [4] - CICC highlighted that the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has significant room for improvement, driven by China's economic growth and effective policies. The report identifies trade settlement and financial market development as key areas needing enhancement to boost the RMB's status as a reserve currency [5] - Huaxi Securities projected that gold prices could rise between 10% and 35% in 2026, influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties. Historical trends suggest that after a strong increase in 2025, the growth rate may moderate in 2026 [6][7] - Huatai Securities noted that the recent debt restructuring plan by Vanke, a leading real estate company, indicates a short-term alleviation of market credit pressure. This development, along with improving real estate policies, may provide opportunities for valuation recovery in real estate stocks [8]

贵金属日报 2026-01-23 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： 昨日公布的美国通胀数据低于预期，美国三季度 PCE 年化环比值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%。 同时，美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数环比值为 2.8%，符合市场预期。 特朗普宣布暂缓对关键金属征收关税后，COMEX 白银库存持续回落缓解海外现货紧俏情况，库 存由年初的 13981 吨下降至 1 月 21 日的 13135 吨，现货白银租赁利率则回落至 4%之下。但印 度白银抵押贷款新规将于今年 4 月 1 日生效，将持续对白银现货贡献新的需求。 【策略观点】 但从中期来看，美联储后续降息的幅度，尤其是新联储主席在五月份上任以后的宽松幅度将较 目前而言大幅提升，特朗普政府对于鲍威尔的刑事调查以及基于宽松货币政策的联储主席任命 均会对联储独立性形成不可逆的影响，且印度白银在一季度仍具备较大的进口空间。策略上逢 低做多，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 985-1200 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 21447-27000 元/千克。 zhon ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the credibility of U.S. policy and the risk of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to further weakening of the dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Even with robust U.S. economic growth, issues related to policy credibility and governance could trigger a temporary decline in the dollar [1] - The potential for excessively loose monetary policy limits the upside potential for the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding inflation paths, along with the widening gap between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, presents a negative combination for the dollar [1] - The DXY dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 98.598 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices has led to a growing interest in copper bar investments, with social media buzz and increased market activity, although the actual availability of copper bars in physical markets remains limited [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Activity - Online platforms are witnessing a rise in the sale of "wealth copper bars" with prices ranging from 140 to 199 yuan per kilogram, and various weight options available [4][6] - In physical markets, merchants report a significant increase in inquiries and sales, with some selling 2-3 tons daily and prices around 170 yuan per bar [3][6] - The logistics sector is adapting to this trend, with courier services beginning to handle copper bar shipments, indicating a growing market demand [6][10] Group 2: Price Trends - Copper prices have seen a dramatic increase, with London Metal Exchange (LME) copper reaching a historical high of 13,407 USD per ton in January 2026, marking a 42% increase over the previous year [7][8] - Domestic copper prices have also surged, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper hitting a record of 105,650 yuan per ton in January 2026, reflecting a 33% annual increase [8] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Industry experts caution that copper is primarily an industrial metal, lacking the investment attributes of precious metals like gold and silver, which may lead to volatility and lower liquidity for copper bar investments [10][14] - The high premiums associated with copper bars and the challenges in finding reliable resale channels raise concerns about the sustainability of this investment trend [10][13] - The current copper bar investment craze is viewed as a speculative trend rather than a stable investment opportunity, with recommendations for investors to consider alternatives like copper ETFs or mining stocks [14]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices closed up 1.4% at $4830.56, reaching a record high of $4888.59 before dropping to $4755.55 after Trump's statement [1] - Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4830 following a wave of selling in the Asian market [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices rose across the board, with the Dow Jones up 1.21%, S&P 500 up 1.16%, and Nasdaq up 1.18% [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Policy - Trump announced he will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, indicating a framework for future agreements regarding Greenland [3] - Despite temporary relief for Europe, there are concerns about Trump's unpredictable policy shifts [6][7] - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this quarter, with a significant shift in expectations regarding potential rate cuts [8][9] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are advised to focus on the upcoming U.S. PCE data and initial jobless claims [10] - The market anticipates the November core PCE price index to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% and a month-over-month increase of 0.2% [11] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. is reportedly seeking to undermine the Cuban government by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela [16] - Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with the U.S. deploying additional military forces in response to heightened relations with Iran [18] - Iran has issued warnings against any military actions targeting its leadership, indicating readiness for retaliation [20] Group 6: U.S. Withdrawal from WHO - The U.S. has officially withdrawn from the World Health Organization after a year of the application process, but still owes $260 million in dues [21]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have continued their strong performance from 2025 into 2026, with prices surpassing $4800 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions and economic risks [1][2]. Price Trends - The London spot gold price increased from $2624 per ounce at the end of December 2024 to $4318 per ounce by the end of December 2025, marking a 64.56% increase. As of January 20, 2026, the price was reported at $4763 per ounce, with a peak of over $4800 on January 21, 2026 [1][2]. Factors Driving Price Increase - Key reasons for the rise in gold prices include: 1. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts leading to lower real interest rates, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [2]. 2. Increased demand for gold due to geopolitical conflicts and rising risk aversion, with central bank purchases and ETF inflows as significant drivers [2]. 3. Global economic risks and debt pressures [2]. 4. Inflation expectations and a weakening dollar [2]. Industry Performance - Upstream mining companies are directly benefiting from rising gold prices. For instance, Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with gold production around 90 tons [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 70% to 81% [3]. - Despite the increase in gold prices impacting gold jewelry consumption, Guangdong Chao Hong Ji Industrial expects a net profit of 436 to 533 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 125% to 175% [3]. Strategic Recommendations - Upstream companies should enhance resource reserves and optimize cost structures to seize market opportunities, while downstream companies are encouraged to innovate products and manage price volatility risks through financial tools [4].