Core Viewpoint - The demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven has decreased due to a trade agreement between the US and Japan, leading to increased market volatility amid political uncertainty in Japan [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - Following President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan, the yen initially strengthened but then weakened as the agreement was perceived to boost risk appetite [1] - The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% tariff [1] Group 2: Political Uncertainty in Japan - The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost its majority in the recent Senate elections, raising speculation about his potential resignation [1] - This political uncertainty includes questions about how a new prime minister would cooperate with opposition parties and the policy pressures the Bank of Japan may face [1]

今日周三(7月23日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9487一线上方，今日开盘于9442元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报9489元/千克，上涨1.13%，最高触及9526元/千克，最低下探9390元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示："贸易不确定性正在推动一些避险需求。美国正在酝酿几项贸 易协议，有传言称，欧盟和美国可能无法达成协议，或者肯定还没有接近达成协议。" 与此同时，欧盟外交官暗示，随着达成贸易协定的前景黯淡，欧盟正在考虑对美国采取更广泛的反制措 施。 投资者也在为下周美联储会议做准备。市场预计美联储将维持利率不变，但10月可能会降息。 贝森特周二还表示，美联储主席鲍威尔没有必要立即辞职，此前一天他呼吁对美联储作为一个机构进行 审查。在特朗普不断施压要求降低借贷成本的情况下，美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼强调了联储独立性的 重要性。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银在多头趋势下，周二继续刷新高点，暂时高点在9540附近，虽然开盘有部分回落，但目前还没有形 成顶部形态，下方支撑在9350，9250，跌破9350可能从强转 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, with President Trump threatening to impose a 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1, 2025, which could severely disrupt transatlantic trade [2][3] - The EU had hoped to negotiate a compromise to maintain a 10% tariff on most products, but the recent US proposals have been significantly higher, leading to a loss of confidence in negotiations [2] - The US has rejected the EU's proposal for a "freeze" on new tariffs, citing national security concerns, which further exacerbates the divide between the two parties [3] Group 2 - Silver prices experienced volatility, with a significant increase of over 2% on July 21, closing at $38.90 per ounce, and reaching a high of $39.03, approaching a multi-year high of $39.11 [4] - Analysts suggest that the decline in US Treasury yields and a general risk-off sentiment have weakened the dollar, contributing to the surge in silver prices [4] - If silver prices break through the annual high of $39.12, the next targets could be $39.50 and $40.00, while a drop below $38.50 may lead to a test of the $37.20 level [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are strengthening. The market's risk aversion demand has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. Although the impact of the US tariff policy on economic data is smaller than expected, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is showing strength due to the boost from industrial products. In the near term, there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 are 790.16, 795.02, 9431.00, and 9462.00 respectively. The price increases are 7.66, 8.30, 65.00, and 50.00, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.53%. The trading volumes are 25775, 31505, 85020, and 101074 respectively, and the open interests are 42972, 104970, 117554, and 220226 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 780, 790.91, and 9368.00 respectively. The price increases are 3, 7.83, and 142.00, with corresponding increases of 0.39%, 1.00%, and 1.54%. The price of London Silver is 39.27 with an increase of 0.37 and an increase rate of 0.95% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 28,857 kg and 1,199,046 kg respectively, with a decrease of 5,420.00 kg in silver inventory. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,488,075 and 497,984,759 respectively, with increases of 295,931.68 and 339196 respectively [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.3550, 6309.62, 4.35, 68.67, and 7.1705 respectively. The changes are - 0.49%, 0.06%, - 0.68%, 0.01%, and - 0.01% respectively [2]. 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The CFTC speculative net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 respectively [2]. 3.6 Macroeconomic News - **Trade Agreements**: US President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero - tariff. Indonesia will remove 99% of its tariff barriers against the US, and all Indonesian products exported to the US will be subject to a 19% tariff. Indonesia will also supply key minerals to the US and sign major agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and US energy [3]. - **Fed - related News**: Trump said that Fed Chairman Powell is about to leave office, and he believes that the interest rate is too high and should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more. The Trump administration has pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, and are expected to reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He also supports Powell to complete his term and calls for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions. A US congressman has accused Powell of perjury regarding the Fed building renovation and called for criminal charges [3].

值得注意的是，金价上涨并非孤立事件。与其一同走高的还有白银、铂金和钯金等贵金属，表明市场风 险偏好正在发生转变。从全球流动性来看，虽然利率仍处于高位，但投资者对未来可能的政策转向开始 预作准备，部分资金正重新布局在"抗风险"属性突出的资产上。贵金属尤其受益于这种配置逻辑。 周二，现货黄金价格延续上行势头，站上3400美元/盎司关口，创下五周来新高，引发市场关注。这一 轮上涨背后，既有宏观环境的不确定性驱动，也有技术面突破带来的顺势交易推动。从价格表现来看， 黄金不仅成功逆转此前的震荡局面，还在短时间内收复多个技术位，显示出避险需求的再次抬头。 本轮金价的直接推力来自美元和美债收益率的同步走弱。随着美国对全球贸易伙伴施压，要求在8月1日 最后期限前达成贸易协议，否则将面临更严厉的关税措施，市场避险情绪升温。与此同时，针对美联储 主席鲍威尔盟友的刑事指控，也引发市场对货币政策独立性的担忧，增加了鲍威尔未来政策空间的不确 定性。美元指数周一下跌0.6%，而10年期美债收益率也刷新逾一周新低，为黄金提供了有力支撑。 实物需求面则释放出截然不同的信号。数据显示，全球最大黄金消费国之一的6月进口量仅为63公吨， 创年内新 ...

尽管黄金的看涨投机仓位依然拥挤，但一位市场策略师认为，这并非近期价格走势背后的主要驱动力。 美国商品期货交易委员会的最新交易数据显示，截至7月18日当周，基金经理将其看涨押注增加了7972 份合约，至总数172657份。与此同时，他们将其空头头寸减少了13763份合约，至22625份。 渣打银行贵金属分析师Suki Cooper在她最新的黄金报告中指出，净持仓占未平仓合约的百分比在过去 七周里一直徘徊在31%左右。 Cooper继续看好黄金，因为尽管近几个月购买速度有所放缓，各国央行仍在继续增加其官方储备。她 说，"官方部门的购买已显示出放缓迹象，但尽管价格创下纪录，央行的购买仍在持续，并未转向净卖 出。" 她指出，随着美国总统特朗普在他的持续贸易战中发布新的进口关税威胁，未平仓合约在7月初保持稳 定。她补充说，尽管战术性仓位仍然坚定地看多且拥挤，但它也已成为近期价格走势的一个关键驱动因 素。 然而，Cooper表示，她正在密切监控的是全球黄金交易所交易产品（ETP）的投资需求，而非投机性 仓位，前者的资金流入在2025年上半年达到了五年来的最高水平。 除了追踪ETP投资需求外，Cooper说她也在监控美元。 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a one-month high of $3403 before retreating to around $3386.33 per ounce, while spot silver has increased by 1.0% to $38.55, marking a 14-year high [1] - Nearly 60% of the annual demand for silver comes from industrial uses, highlighting its importance beyond investment [1] - The weakening US dollar index and declining US Treasury yields have provided strong support for the precious metals market, driving significant price increases for both gold and silver [1] Group 2 - The EU is exploring countermeasures against US tariffs while prioritizing negotiations, and Indonesia's 19% tariff may take effect on August 1, creating uncertainty that boosts safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] - The political climate in the US, including calls for criminal charges against Federal Reserve officials and scrutiny of the Fed's operations, raises concerns about policy credibility and market volatility, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [2] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that interest rate cuts should be considered if inflation data is low, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rates and provide financial support for precious metals [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis for spot gold indicates a bullish trend, with prices operating near the upper Bollinger Band and MACD indicators showing a bullish crossover, suggesting strong upward momentum [3] - Spot silver is poised to challenge its annual high of $39.12 after breaking through key resistance levels, with bullish momentum indicated by the RSI, although it remains below extreme levels [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable compared to last Friday, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a two-day price increase, reaching 1012 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold quoted the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 43 CNY per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: Lao Miao 1004 CNY, Liu Fu 1008 CNY, Chow Tai Fook 1008 CNY, and others, with no significant changes except for Chow Sang Sang [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices rebounded after a significant drop on Saturday, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 CNY to 581 CNY per gram [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price saw a slight increase of 3.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: the average recycling price is 765.20 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 778.20 CNY [2] International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold prices rose, peaking at 3361.05 USD per ounce before closing at 3349.42 USD, marking a 0.31% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3367.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% increase [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine [4] - Concerns over the expanding U.S. debt and potential tariff escalations are expected to continue driving the gold market [4] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations and consumer confidence data have influenced market sentiment, with inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% from a previous 5.0% [4]