齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点通讯员王丹 2025年国庆中秋假期，临沂市消费市场热力升腾，生活必需品供应量足价稳，民生刚需品类消费实现大 幅增长，各类消费活动精彩纷呈，多元消费场景持续焕新，节日氛围愈发浓烈。 国庆中秋假期，据商贸流通监测平台数据显示，临沂市44家零售样本企业实现销售总额61062.58万元。 粮油食品、饮料、烟酒、日用品等民生刚需品类实现大幅增长，成为消费市场的"稳定器"，其中粮油食 品销售额为11359.95万元，同比增长26.2%；饮料销售额为1563.63万元，同比增长60.13%；烟酒销售额 为1898.85万元，同比增长242.5%；日用品销售额为1135.96万元，同比增长6.21%。文化、通讯及休闲 类消费展现出显著增长活力，彰显消费结构的优化升级，其中通讯器材销售额为366.66万元，同比增长 11.73%；文化办公用品销售额为32.82万元，同比增长20.13%；体育、娱乐用品销售额为11.2万元，同 比增长76.1%。此外，汽车、家用电器及音像器材分别实现销售额38192.9万元、2211.01万元。 消费活动精彩纷呈，消费场景持续焕新 9月26日，临沂市启动以"惠享琅琊.乐购临沂" ...

Group 1 - The economic data and living parameters of cities are becoming a "reference book" for young people when choosing where to live [3][8] - There is a growing trend of young people seeking advice on suitable cities for living, focusing on factors like cost of living and quality of life [8][9] - A significant increase in demand for "city selection consultants" has been observed, with many clients preferring second and third-tier cities over first-tier cities [8][9] Group 2 - The retail sales data indicates a shift in consumption patterns, with Chongqing surpassing Shanghai to become the top city in terms of retail sales [12][15] - Cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou are showing strong growth in retail sales, with July figures reaching 16.4% and 11.97% respectively [12][15] - The consumption growth in mid-tier cities is notable, with cities like Haikou leading in growth rates, showcasing their potential [16][18] Group 3 - The disposable income and consumer spending are critical indicators of a city's economic health and attractiveness for residents [26][29] - Shanghai leads in disposable income, while cities like Chongqing and Hefei demonstrate high cost-effectiveness for residents [26][29] - The cost of living in various cities is rising, with several second-tier cities now ranking among the top in global living cost indices [29][30] Group 4 - The job market is evolving, with more cities outside of first-tier cities offering competitive salaries, making them attractive for young professionals [32][34] - Talent attraction and population inflow are key metrics for evaluating cities suitable for economic opportunities [33][34] - The presence of major corporations and innovative industries in certain regions continues to drive economic growth and job creation [34][36] Group 5 - Factors such as housing, commuting, and retirement plans are increasingly influencing young people's decisions on where to live [36][39] - The rental market is shifting, with rising demand in second-tier cities as young people seek better cost-to-income ratios [37][39] - Quality of life indicators, including commuting times and living costs, are becoming essential considerations for urban living [39][40]

Core Insights - The consumer market in China is experiencing steady expansion and improvement, driven by various consumption promotion policies, with a notable resilience in service consumption and growth in new consumption patterns [1] Group 1: Product Consumption - In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with key retail enterprises showing an 8.2% growth [3] - Mobile phone sales surged by 17.7%, while smart air conditioner sales rose by 20.7%, and tablet computer sales increased by 8.2% [3] - The retail volume of passenger cars in August saw a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service consumption maintained rapid growth, driven by concentrated demand for tourism and recreational activities during the summer [5] - The service retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year [7] - Popularity in red tourism and summer vacation trips, along with high attendance at well-known IP theme parks, contributed to this growth [8] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New consumption categories such as digital, green, and health-related consumption are rapidly developing, with online retail sales reaching 9.6 trillion yuan, marking a 10.0% year-on-year increase [11] - Sales of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 55.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% in retail volume [11] - Sales of sports and entertainment products in large-scale retail units increased by 16.9% [11] Group 4: Inbound Consumption - The expansion of inbound consumption is evident, with the number of tax refund stores exceeding 10,000 by the end of August [17] - The sales of tax refund goods increased by 97.5% in the first eight months, and the number of individuals benefiting from tax refunds grew by 2.5 times [17]

Economic Overview - Dalian's economy showed stable performance in the first eight months of the year, with industrial production improving and consumer momentum continuing to release [1] - The city's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 15.9% year-on-year, continuing a double-digit growth trend [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase in added value by 21.9%, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 16.7%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 4.2%, and private enterprises by 2.3% [2] - Mining industry added value surged by 61.5%, while manufacturing grew by 13.3% and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.8% [2] - Key industries such as petrochemical increased by 7.1%, equipment manufacturing by 17.8%, with notable growth in the railway and shipbuilding industry at 62.0% and the automotive industry at 27.7% [2] - Pharmaceutical manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 42.9%, with raw material drug manufacturing skyrocketing by 536.3% [2] Service Sector - The service sector in Dalian remained stable, with most industries experiencing growth [3] - The total turnover of road, water, and air transport increased by 1.8%, 4.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] - Retail sales for large-scale units reached 579.9 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in categories such as building materials (990.7%) and home appliances (285.9%) [3] Consumer Prices and Electricity Consumption - Consumer prices in Dalian continued to operate at low levels, with food and beverage prices decreasing by 1.6% [4] - Total electricity consumption in the city reached 33.79 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with industrial electricity consumption at 20.49 billion kWh, growing by 1.6% [4]

Economic Growth - Chengdu's industrial added value increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in Chengdu was 96.4% during the first eight months [1] Industrial Performance - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 5.0%, while private enterprises saw an increase of 11.1% [1] - Out of 37 major industries, 23 experienced growth in added value [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry grew by 20.9%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 15.8%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 10.2% [1] Key Industrial Products - Production of new energy vehicles surged by 283.3%, smartwatches increased by 91.6%, and lithium-ion batteries grew by 38.6% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu (excluding rural households) increased by 3.3% year-on-year from January to August, with private investment growing by 6.6% [1] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 19.0%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 21.3%, with industrial investment increasing by 21.7% [1] Consumer Market - Chengdu's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 739.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [2] - Restaurant income was 90.42 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%, while commodity retail reached 648.86 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [2] - Notable growth in hot products included gold and silver jewelry at 42.9%, home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 23.7%, and sports and entertainment products at 25.9% [2] Foreign Trade - Chengdu's foreign trade import and export totaled 566.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [2] - Exports amounted to 328.86 billion yuan, growing by 10.6%, while imports reached 238.12 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in August 2025, with a total retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3][4] - From January to August, the cumulative retail sales amounted to 32.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3][4] Group 2 - In August, commodity retail sales grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, which increased by 18.6%, 14.3%, 14.2%, and 7.3% respectively [3][4] - The sales of key retail enterprises for tablets, smart air conditioners, and mobile phones increased by 20.7%, 17.7%, and 8.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The retail volume of passenger cars in August increased by 4.6% year-on-year [3][4] Group 3 - Service consumption showed strong growth, driven by increased demand for tourism and leisure activities during the summer, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August [4] - The total box office for summer movies reached 11.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [4] Group 4 - New types of consumption, including digital, green, and health consumption, continued to grow rapidly, with online retail sales reaching 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [4] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [4] Group 5 - The inbound consumption continued to expand, with the number of tax refund stores exceeding 10,000 by the end of August, and the sales of tax refund goods increasing by 97.5% year-on-year [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, which is below the consensus expectation of 3.8% [11][5] - The rural market's growth rate outpaced that of urban areas, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% and rural retail sales growing by 4.6% [13][5] - Online consumption continues to accelerate, with cumulative online retail sales of goods and services growing by 9.6% and 6.4% respectively from January to August [15][5] - The CPI turned negative in August, decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to -2.9% [36][5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting a slight increase [49][5] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth of retail sales in August was 3.4%, indicating stable growth [10] - The total retail sales for August 2025 were 39,668 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth [11] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales amounted to 34,387 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%, while rural retail sales reached 5,281 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.6% [13] Channel Performance - Online consumption showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.38% in August, while offline retail sales grew by 2.0% [16][15] Category Performance - The restaurant sector continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in August, while overall retail sales of goods grew by 3.6% [23][5] - The performance of essential, discretionary, and real estate-related categories was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.75%, 6.45%, and 3.26% respectively [29][5] Price Performance - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, while the PPI's decline narrowed to -2.9% [36][5] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, primarily due to significant declines in pork and fresh vegetables [38][5] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting a slight increase compared to previous months [49][5] Investment Recommendations - There is potential for service consumption to be released, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as cultural tourism, hotels, and duty-free shops [57][5] - The cosmetics sector showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1% in August, indicating strong performance in a traditionally slow season [57][5]

Economic Overview - Hubei province's economy shows a stable and positive trend across various sectors including industry, investment, consumption, foreign trade, and finance [1][2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size in Hubei increased by 7.8% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 1.6 percentage points [2] - High-tech manufacturing led the growth with an increase of 14.2%, contributing 27.2% to the overall industrial growth [2] - Specific sectors such as computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing grew by 15.6%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 16.7% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Hubei grew by 6.7% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate of 6.2% [3] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant increase of 13.3%, while infrastructure investment rose by 3.5% [3] - Private investment remained active, growing by 6.0%, and 11.9% when excluding real estate development [3] Consumption Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 17,241.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, higher than the national average [4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and furniture, with retail sales increasing by 25.2% and 61.3% respectively [4] - Online retail sales also experienced rapid growth, increasing by 19.2% [4] Foreign Trade Developments - Hubei's total import and export value reached 5,463.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [4] - Exports amounted to 3,898.3 billion yuan, growing by 35.0%, while imports increased by 11.5% to 1,565.6 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Performance - Local general public budget revenue for Hubei reached 2880.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [5] - Financial institutions in Hubei reported a total deposit balance of 99,997.0 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% since the beginning of the year [5]

Production - Industrial production growth in August was 5.2%, below the expected 5.8% and down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The decline in industrial production was primarily due to a decrease in export growth, which turned negative at -0.4% for the first time this year, down 1.2 percentage points from last month[3] - The service production index growth fell to 5.6%, indicating a slowdown in the service sector[3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in August was -7.1%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, with a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop, with a monthly growth rate of -19.5% and a cumulative decline of -12.9%[4] - Infrastructure investment also decreased, with broad infrastructure cumulative growth at 5.4% and narrow infrastructure at 2.0%, both down from the previous month[4] Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling in consumer spending[5] - Dining consumption showed slight recovery with a growth rate of 2.1%, while overall goods retail growth was 3.6%, down 0.3 percentage points[5] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged to 16.8%, doubling from the previous month, while other discretionary categories showed mixed results[6] Outlook - The economic slowdown in August reflects ongoing pressures in production, investment, and consumption, necessitating targeted policy interventions[7] - Future policy efforts are expected to focus on boosting investment and service consumption, with financial tools likely to support infrastructure investment[7] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with continued pressure from declining exports and a cooling real estate market[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the consumer market is experiencing stable growth, with August retail sales data showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the actual growth, excluding price factors, is 4.1% [4][5][8] - The report highlights a trend of recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the categories of upgraded consumer goods and essential items, with a notable increase in sales of furniture and home appliances [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 2395.83, with a 52-week high of 2501.51 and a low of 1442.73 [1] Retail Sales Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [4][5] - For the first eight months of the year, the total retail sales reached 323,906 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.6% [4] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a deceleration in apparent growth but an acceleration in actual growth when price factors are excluded. The month-on-month growth in August was 0.17%, which is faster than the growth rates in June and July [5][8] - The report identifies a strong performance in upgraded consumer goods, with furniture sales growing by 18.6% year-on-year, and significant growth in sports and entertainment products [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding consumer recovery, recommending attention to new consumption opportunities such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, as well as cyclical sectors like liquor and travel if consumer stimulus policies continue [9][10]