商务部副部长鄢东今日在国务院新闻办公室举办的政策例行吹风会上介绍，2025年，商务部结合办理相 关建议提案，把促消费和惠民生结合起来，推进实施提振消费专项行动，持续释放消费潜力。消费对经 济增长的贡献率达52%，比上年提高5个百分点。 在推进商品消费平稳增长方面，商务部加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，出台支持国际消费中心城市培育 建设的若干措施，进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费，组织开展"购在中国"系列活动。加快内外贸 一体化建设，举办"外贸优品中华行"活动。2025年，全国社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元；消费 品以旧换新带动相关品类销售额2.61万亿元，惠及3.66亿人次。 在推动服务消费持续扩大方面，商务部发挥服务消费工作机制作用，推动出台扩大服务消费、家政服务 消费扩容升级等政策文件，推出服务消费与养老再贷款、服务业经营主体贷款贴息等一批"含金量"高的 举措，持续实施服务消费提质惠民行动，办好"服务消费季"等活动，开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点 建设，创新多元化服务消费场景。2025年，全国服务零售额同比增长5.5%，文体休闲、旅游咨询租 赁、交通出行等服务类零售额实现两位数增长。 在带动流通体系不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall decreased slightly this month, indicating a mixed trend in various product categories with some experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1][13]. Price Index Summary - The total price index for Linyi Mall is 102.12 points, down 0.06 points month-on-month, a decrease of 0.06%, and down 1.72 points year-on-year, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - Among 14 categories, 6 experienced price increases, 2 remained stable, and 6 saw price declines [3]. Category-Specific Price Changes Building and Decoration Materials - The price index for building and decoration materials rose to 107.90 points, an increase of 1.41 points month-on-month [5]. - The increase was driven primarily by the rise in prices of decorative materials, which increased by 1.50 points, while structural materials saw a slight decline [6]. Hardware and Electrical Materials - The price index for hardware and electrical materials reached 119.99 points, up 0.20 points month-on-month [9]. - The increase was influenced by a significant rise in copper prices, which raised production costs for electrical cables, leading to higher selling prices [9]. Educational and Office Supplies - The price index for educational and office supplies fell to 106.60 points, down 2.02 points month-on-month [10]. - The decline was mainly due to a significant drop in the prices of sports and entertainment products, which decreased by 5.09 points [10]. Steel Products - The price index for steel products decreased to 95.29 points, down 0.39 points month-on-month [12]. - The decline was attributed to weak demand in the real estate market, leading to reduced end-user demand and a cautious outlook among market participants [12].

今天分享的是：西南证券：新经济、新动能行业洞察系列（二）：新消费演进中的价格与产业洞察 报告共计：26页 本报告为西南证券新经济新动能行业洞察系列第二篇，聚焦新消费演进对宏观经济、价格体系及产业发展的多维影响，指出新消费以信 息技术为驱动、以品质化个性化为导向，是内需大循环的战略支柱，其战略地位随政策持续加码不断提升。 新消费成为宏观经济结构升级的核心动力，2023年以来最终消费支出对GDP贡献率稳居首位，2025年我国消费对GDP拉动率稳定在3%左 右，显著高于发达经济体。服务消费增长动能突出，2025年服务零售额增速超商品零售额1.7个百分点，商品零售中通讯器材、文化办公 用品等新消费品类增速领跑，旅游、观影等服务消费呈现节日爆发式增长特征。同时，新消费推动传统职业迭代，2025年新增多个消费 升级相关职业与工种，灵活就业成为就业增收重要途径，且灵活就业群体消费倾向更高，形成就业与消费的良性互动。 新消费推动CPI权重重构与价格结构性修复，2021-2025年居住、交通通信CPI权重显著提升，食品烟酒、生活用品及服务权重下降，反映 居民消费从基础刚需向品质升级转变。CPI品类价格呈现分化修复态势，衣着、医 ...

Group 1 - The province implemented a series of policies to boost consumption, including the issuance of 1 billion yuan in consumption vouchers, leading to a stable growth in social retail sales, which reached 12,786.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] - Urban and rural markets expanded, with rural consumption growing faster than urban, achieving retail sales of 2,209.48 billion yuan in rural areas, a 3.1% increase, compared to 2.2% in urban areas [1] - Upgraded consumption categories saw significant growth, with retail sales of goods reaching 10,909.34 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase, and specific categories like mobile phones and home appliances experiencing double-digit growth [1] Group 2 - The province's catering revenue reached 1,876.87 billion yuan, growing by 4.2%, while retail sales in food, tobacco, and daily necessities also saw positive growth [2] - New retail formats, such as discount stores and unmanned shops, showed rapid growth, with sales increasing by 13.6% and 13.7% respectively [2] - Online sales continued to thrive, with retail sales through public networks growing by 30.9%, indicating a strong consumer demand and a significant increase in e-commerce activity [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, the central government implemented a series of financial policies to support the expansion of commodity consumption and optimize service consumption supply, including the issuance of 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods [1][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, reaching 50,120.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "old for new" policy expanded from 8 categories of home appliances to 12, including digital products and electric bicycles, with increased subsidy intensity [2] - In 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced under the "old for new" policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [2][4] - The sales of related products under the "old for new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Retail sales of limited above units grew by 3.4%, with significant increases in categories such as communication equipment (20.9%) and cultural office supplies (17.3%) [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a penetration rate of 53.9% [3][4] - Upgraded product categories saw accelerated demand, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 15.7% and jewelry and cosmetics reversing previous declines [3] Group 3: Industry Upgrades and Environmental Impact - The "old for new" policy not only boosted consumption but also promoted industrial upgrades and green transformation, with over 90% of replaced home appliances being high-efficiency products [4] - The recycling of scrapped vehicles increased by 24.5%, leading to significant reductions in carbon emissions [4] - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, initiated pilot projects to foster new consumption models and international consumption environments, allocating 9.6 billion yuan for the first batch of funding [4][5]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shandong province implemented a series of policies to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, effectively stimulating market vitality and optimizing consumption structure, achieving a total retail sales of consumer goods of 42,082.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Urban retail sales reached 35,220.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while rural markets showed stronger performance with retail sales of 6,861.9 billion yuan, a growth rate of 5.5%, indicating coordinated growth between urban and rural consumption [1] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 37,467.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%, while catering revenue reached 4,615.9 billion yuan, up by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Essential Goods - Basic living goods continued to play a stabilizing role, with retail sales of grain and oil, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, and daily necessities increasing by 10.0%, 12.6%, 12.9%, and 17.4% respectively, collectively accounting for 22.2% of retail sales above the designated size, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall retail sales growth [1] Group 3: Upgrading Consumption - The sales of upgraded consumer goods showed positive trends, with retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cultural and office supplies increasing by 9.6%, 12.4%, and 22.8% respectively, together contributing 0.6 percentage points to retail sales growth, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 4: Replacement Goods - Retail sales of communication equipment surged by 29.8%, while home appliances and audio-visual equipment, and furniture grew by 12.0% and 12.9% respectively, with new energy vehicle sales also increasing by 8.7%, collectively driving a 2.9 percentage point increase in retail sales above the designated size [1]

Group 1 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 are projected to reach 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% [1] - Retail sales of goods are expected to grow by 3.8%, while catering revenue is anticipated to increase by 3.2% [1] - Final consumption expenditure is expected to contribute 52% to economic growth, continuing to play a key role as the main engine of economic development [1] Group 2 - The consumption of durable goods is showing positive growth, with the trade-in of old consumer goods driving sales in related categories to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [1] - Retail sales of passenger cars are projected to reach 23.744 million units, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [1] - The retail sales of staple food and oil products in large-scale units are expected to grow by 9.3%, indicating a shift towards health-conscious consumption with organic and green food becoming popular [1] Group 3 - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles are projected to grow by 3.2%, while daily necessities are expected to see a growth of 6.3% [1] - There is a strong demand for upgraded consumer goods, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products in large-scale units expected to grow by 15.7% [1] - Sales of smart glasses, smartwatches, and smart bands on key platforms are anticipated to increase by over 40% [1] Group 4 - The consumption of specialty products is expected to be vibrant in 2025, with a surge in new product launches in smart connected vehicles and smartphones [2] - Domestic and international brands are accelerating the establishment of flagship stores, stimulating new consumption momentum [2] - The trend of "IP + consumption" is thriving, with sales of movie derivative products during the summer season expected to double year-on-year, leading the consumption wave [2]

据了解，地区生产总值核算包括初步核算和最终核实两个步骤。经最终核实，2024年天津市地区生产总 值17931.55亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长4.9%。(完) 天津2025年GDP达18539.82亿元 同比增长4.8% 中新网天津1月22日电 (记者 周亚强)记者22日从天津市统计局获悉，根据地区生产总值统一核算结果， 2025年天津市地区生产总值为18539.82亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长4.8%。全市经济运行保持平 稳增长。 分产业观察，第一产业增加值293.55亿元，增长3.0%；第二产业增加值6154.46亿元，增长3.5%；第三 产业增加值12091.81亿元，增长5.4%。服务业增速快于全市GDP增速0.6个百分点，其中现代服务业表 现亮眼，信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业增加值分别增长18.6%和13.4%。 农业生产保持良好形势，全年粮食总产量279.2万吨，增长3.2%，实现"二十二连丰"。工业生产稳定增 长，规模以上工业增加值增长4.2%。高技术制造业增长较快，增加值增长5.3%，医疗仪器设备及器 械、电子计算机整机等产品产量大幅增长。固定资产投资比上年增长1.6 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's consumption market is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025, with both scale and quality improving, showcasing the advantages of a super-large market [1] Group 2 - The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, a 3.7% increase from the previous year, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% to economic growth [1] - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy led to sales in related categories reaching 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [1] - Retail sales of household appliances, furniture, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increased by 11%, 14.6%, 17.3%, and 20.9% respectively [1] Group 3 - New types of consumption, such as green and smart products, are thriving, with retail sales of new energy vehicles growing by 17.6%, and by the end of 2025, 6 out of every 10 passenger cars sold are expected to be new energy vehicles [1] - The number of consumers purchasing first-level energy-efficient or water-efficient appliances is expected to increase by 20% compared to the previous year, with smart glasses, smartwatches, and smart bands each growing over 40% [1] - Health-related consumption is expanding, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products increasing by 15.7% [1] Group 4 - The Ministry of Commerce will continue to combine benefits for the public and promote consumption through a dual approach of "policy + activities" to continuously unleash consumption potential [2]

Economic Overview - In 2025, Hangzhou's GDP reached 23,011 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.2% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Hangzhou was 569 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.8% for planting, 5.3% for forestry, 0.2% for animal husbandry, and 4.2% for fishery [2] - Major agricultural products included a total grain output of 599,000 tons (up 3.9%), vegetable output of 3,860,000 tons (up 3.6%), and fruit output of 900,000 tons (up 3.9%) [2] Industrial Growth - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,624 billion yuan, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 13.4%) and automotive manufacturing (up 36.7%) [3] - New quality productivity showed remarkable results, with high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and high-end equipment manufacturing growing by 7.5%, 10.0%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - Production of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment saw explosive growth rates of 383.0%, 38.6%, and 15.1% respectively [3] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry was 16,997 billion yuan, with the profit-making service sector growing by 7.0% and financial services by 6.4% [4] - From January to November, the revenue of the service industry above designated size reached 21,168 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 13.4% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hangzhou reached 9,499 billion yuan, indicating a stable and upgrading consumption pattern [5] - The "8+4" economic policy led to significant growth in retail sales of household appliances (up 42.8%) and communication equipment (up 31.4%) [5] - Upgrading consumption demands were strong, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 45.3% and cosmetics by 12.3% [5] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value was 9,072 billion yuan, with exports at 6,469 billion yuan and imports at 2,603 billion yuan [6] - The export of electromechanical products reached 3,107 billion yuan (up 10.9%), and high-tech products reached 1,001 billion yuan (up 9.9%) [6] - The private economy accounted for 77.0% of total exports, with exports to Belt and Road countries growing by 14.1% [6] Living Standards - The per capita disposable income of residents was 80,017 yuan, with balanced growth across four income sources [7] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 86,640 yuan (up 3.9%), while rural residents had 53,565 yuan (up 5.4%), narrowing the income gap to 1.62 [7] Price Stability - In 2025, the consumer price index remained stable compared to the previous year, with six categories of goods experiencing price increases and two categories seeing declines [8] - Hangzhou aims to achieve a GDP of 30 trillion yuan and a per capita GDP of over 30,000 USD by 2030, focusing on policy coordination and market demand stimulation [8]